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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#445584

Postby odysseus2000 » September 27th, 2021, 1:03 pm

murray paul
I think the bear case is not that something suddenly emerges, but that things carry on exactly the same as they are now: Tesla fail to deliver new models, fail to deliver increased production capacity and fail to deliver FSD.


All the things you cite are already known to market participants and slowly increased production is happening, nearly half a million cars last year, around 1 million this year, Plaid did emerge and was very well received.

For the bears to get serious traction they need something currently not considered. I doubt whether banning of FSD, unless in the US, would hurt Tesla much and I agree with you that this is a low probability event.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445596

Postby murraypaul » September 27th, 2021, 1:32 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
murray paul
I think the bear case is not that something suddenly emerges, but that things carry on exactly the same as they are now: Tesla fail to deliver new models, fail to deliver increased production capacity and fail to deliver FSD.


All the things you cite are already known to market participants and slowly increased production is happening, nearly half a million cars last year, around 1 million this year, Plaid did emerge and was very well received.

For the bears to get serious traction they need something currently not considered. I doubt whether banning of FSD, unless in the US, would hurt Tesla much and I agree with you that this is a low probability event.


Tesla as a company can be successful while Tesla as an investment is not.
From a quick google the current P/E is around 400?
Continuing at current rates, or slowing increasing production, doesn't justify that P/E ratio.
They are priced as a tech company, but are not delivering the tech, eventually they have to, or risk someone else getting there first.

I guess it depends whether you think the bear case is share price falls by 50%, or share price just sort of drifts sideways then slowly down.

The former (collapse) seems very unlikely, major regulatory interference, Musk doing something even more outrageous than normal, or admitting that they can't deliver FSD as originally promised?

The latter (drift) does seem possible, if their market share keeps falling, and existing manufacturers successfully transition to EV.

Ultimately, if they can actually deliver true full self driving, they are worth almost whatever price you want. If they can't, they should be priced as a car company, not a tech company.

Can they? How many years is it now, and they still have a really really clever cruise control system, but nothing even close to level 5 self driving.

I think it is a reasonable bet that none of the original set of FSD buyers will ever have a true working FSD system delivered for those vehicles.

IMO: Good cars, promising but not yet working tech, poor customer relations, terrible corporate management, very risky investment.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445598

Postby BobbyD » September 27th, 2021, 1:35 pm

murraypaul wrote:
The one sudden shock that could happen is a major market banning the use of FSD over safety concerns, but that seems very unlikely.


FSD is already severely restricted in the EU, UK and anywhere else that actually imements UN/ECE regs.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445602

Postby ReformedCharacter » September 27th, 2021, 1:44 pm

Interesting insights into Elon Musk:

'I don't think you'd necessarily want to be me...it's very hard to turn it off, it's like a never ending explosion all the time...it's very painful'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9D4ifGzndY

RC

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445704

Postby odysseus2000 » September 27th, 2021, 6:55 pm

Munroe on the Mini, both BEV and ICE work that they did (26 mins):

https://youtu.be/fSzIRHf6W58

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445756

Postby odysseus2000 » September 27th, 2021, 11:21 pm

murraypaul
Tesla as a company can be successful while Tesla as an investment is not.
From a quick google the current P/E is around 400?
Continuing at current rates, or slowing increasing production, doesn't justify that P/E ratio.
They are priced as a tech company, but are not delivering the tech, eventually they have to, or risk someone else getting there first.

I guess it depends whether you think the bear case is share price falls by 50%, or share price just sort of drifts sideways then slowly down.

The former (collapse) seems very unlikely, major regulatory interference, Musk doing something even more outrageous than normal, or admitting that they can't deliver FSD as originally promised?

The latter (drift) does seem possible, if their market share keeps falling, and existing manufacturers successfully transition to EV.

Ultimately, if they can actually deliver true full self driving, they are worth almost whatever price you want. If they can't, they should be priced as a car company, not a tech company.

Can they? How many years is it now, and they still have a really really clever cruise control system, but nothing even close to level 5 self driving.

I think it is a reasonable bet that none of the original set of FSD buyers will ever have a true working FSD system delivered for those vehicles.

IMO: Good cars, promising but not yet working tech, poor customer relations, terrible corporate management, very risky investment.


p/e means nothing with out considering the growth rate.

If nothing else happens and we see the projected Giga Shanghai production of 450,000 next year

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/09/te ... 0000-year/

that is about what the whole oc Tesla did last year. We also have Austin and Berlin approaching, so growth rate is large, margins are good and the competition from legacy is pitiful. See e.g.:

https://youtu.be/sowMCGZHPoE

The technology developed for labelling the AI driving is valuable as is the research/production, on the Tesla Bot. No other car company is anywhere near close, nor is any competing charging infra structure comparable and as reliable as super chargers. Add just some of these things and Tesla should trade on a much higher p/e/growth rate than any legacy auto.

As things now stand BMW's balance sheet is ugly, Honda and Toyota are not committing to BEV and run the risk of having their whole output of ICE made unsellable by politicians as will shortly happen in Norway. Of all legacy only VW is paying lip-service to making BEV. GM who has sold a lot of Bolts is now telling owners to park at least 50 ft from anything combustible, making the cars essentially unusable even in the wide open space of the US.

The media are full of stories of bad Tesla service, but their cars keep on selling and the owners love them. GM bolt owners may have loved their cars but spontaneous conflagrations are not helping their marketing or customer loyalty. One might imagine that the NTSA might compel GM to buy back all bolts or fix them and the latter is currently beyond GM.

Meanwhile there is a huge wave of Chinese BEV about to land in Europe and the US, often priced at very low levels and such is the potential of these that all the disasters of the GM bolt look like they will be forgiven by the analysts due to equity that GM owns in new Chinese makers.

If FSD does work the whole market will become bifurcated between the robots and everyone else. Even if it doesn't Tesla is sufficiently strong that it is killing the competition in its addressed markets which are growing as more giga plants come on line and the news on the 4680 production yields is beginning to look very encouraging which if so will give Tesla another edge.

There are various competing battery technologies but all, as far as I know, are very low production, more lab scale and will take time to commercialise in volume and then likely bought by Tesla.

Even if you find p/e/growth a useful concept one can argue that Tesla is way too cheap at present levels. We should also note that Tesla has a strong balance sheet and has had no difficulty raising capital, something that all legacy auto can not say or do.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445757

Postby odysseus2000 » September 27th, 2021, 11:25 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Munroe on the Mini, both BEV and ICE work that they did (26 mins):

https://youtu.be/fSzIRHf6W58

Regards,


I find these kinds of video deeply inspiring, thanks for sharing!

What Musk has done is close to being without any parallels at all and from talking to young scientists/engineers there are many who deeply admire him and want to follow in his footsteps. Of course there are other who hate him, but they seem to be driven entirely by emotions with no quantitative logic at all.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445787

Postby murraypaul » September 28th, 2021, 8:45 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
p/e means nothing with out considering the growth rate.


Well yes, that is why I said:
Continuing at current rates, or slowing increasing production, doesn't justify that P/E ratio.


odysseus2000 wrote:The technology developed for labelling the AI driving is valuable as is the research/production, on the Tesla Bot.

Tesla Bot was a man dancing in a robot suit.
That was peak Elon, all show and no substance.
Tell me when it is an actual product.

No other car company is anywhere near close, nor is any competing charging infra structure comparable and as reliable as super chargers. Add just some of these things and Tesla should trade on a much higher p/e/growth rate than any legacy auto.


They are doing, automotive industry P/E is less than 10, Tesla is around 400.
Tesla has a P/E 50 times greater than that of VW.
That only has any justification as a tech company, not an automotive one, which means it all comes down to actually delivering FSD.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445789

Postby murraypaul » September 28th, 2021, 8:47 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:

I find these kinds of video deeply inspiring, thanks for sharing!


Are you ok?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445891

Postby odysseus2000 » September 28th, 2021, 12:38 pm

murraypaul
They are doing, automotive industry P/E is less than 10, Tesla is around 400.
Tesla has a P/E 50 times greater than that of VW.
That only has any justification as a tech company, not an automotive one, which means it all comes down to actually delivering FSD.


Oh, dear! Your understanding of this subject is seriously flawed.

If one looks at estimates for Tesla:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/analysis/

One finds huge variations in what the analysts think. For the current quarter with 22 analysts one finds a low estimate of 0.93 and a high estimate of 1.91. Who if any is correct? P/e and growth rates have their place for slow growing business where there is a reasonable grouping of estimate and a track record or neither under or over performing. Trying to use this methodology for growth business is ridiculous. As soon as I see comments about p/e I know the author has not studied how to analyse growth business.

If you study growth business from the first industrial revolution you will find that all these business always trade on what the conventional media/commentators believe is a high valuation. Of course some are too stupid to understand this and take out huge short positions based on what they see as a high p/e. Many big firms have done this to Tesla and been broken by it and/or forced to cover at huge losses and then to realise they should have been long. Citron was a text book example of seeming well educated folk acting stupid and losing a lot of money.

Now let us look at VW since you seem to want to compare this to Tesla. VW is a legacy motor, with a weak balance sheet, no option to go out and sell stock and a huge investment in obsolete plant and equipment and a huge workforce that is about to suffer extreme disruption and which needs to be pensioned off or given big redundancy payments. Meanwhile all their suppliers are in a similar boat and the new German leader is going to have some serious trouble trying to reconcile the need for employment and wealth creation with the need to reduce co2. German is already seeing the expensive marques losing market share to Tesla. In the next year a load of very inexpensive Chinese cars will arrive in Germany. This will do wonders for co2 reduction but it will hurt VW and VW are the best of the legacy autos. Currently the p/e for VW is ridiculously high given their outlook. The rest of German legacy auto is a worse pickle. BMW are doomed given their pitiful balance sheet and no investor in his/her right mind will buy their equity.

Of course there are many who somehow believe that VW will be immune, just as there were folk who though British Leyland would last forever and they bad mouthed the Japanese who then slaughtered them. German auto v the Chinese will be no different. Japanese legacy auto is in a similar mess as US auto although GM has stakes in leading Chinese makers and so may do well for share holders but not US workers.

I could go on and on, as I have studied the business of growth since Arkwright and also the business of all the legacy auto makers, but few believe me and this is fabulous as this gives a big pool of folk who will in the by and by have to change and buy Tesla.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445900

Postby dealtn » September 28th, 2021, 12:55 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
If you study growth business from the first industrial revolution you will find that all these business always trade on what the conventional media/commentators believe is a high valuation. Of course some are too stupid to understand this and take out huge short positions based on what they see as a high p/e.


Well yes, that's often true.

And unless you think every growth business is successful, and goes on to justify its high valuation, what is wrong with taking a short position?

The reality is many, even most, companies, especially early stage growth ones disappoint. Only the few survive (but are constantly referred to by those historians or students of "growth businesses" many of whom haven't understood Survivor Bias).

So the question is whether Tesla is correctly priced, or over, or underpriced. Only time will tell. To be so certain (and consistently so) is a risky position to hold, be that financially or reputationally.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445905

Postby odysseus2000 » September 28th, 2021, 12:58 pm

murraypaul wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:

I find these kinds of video deeply inspiring, thanks for sharing!


Are you ok?


I am really good and greatly enjoying everything at the moment.

Tesla is going up which always brings a smile but it is not alone as there is many tech, mostly new companies, that are growing fast. I have had some delightfully happy and profitable positions in some of these and that always brings a smile as does my belief that we are indeed heading into the roaring 20's which will lead to a complete change in almost every aspect of work. Soon entire industries will realise they are doomed and we will see the usual luddites trying to protect themselves, but nothing will stop the tide of AI that is slowly coming in. The disruption will begin in the learned professions where folk will soon realise that what ever knowledge and skill they have they can not compete against AI. Remember how GO went from impossible for machines to a single machine being able to simultaneously defeat multiple world class players.

One of the fascinations is watching how the media and commentators here have no clue about any of this. It was the same for Tesla. For years folk on here and in the media would tell me how Tesla was doomed and how legacy would outcompete them. That went real well!

The poster boy of all of this is Musk, a man who has built 3 billion dollar companies, something that very few others have done and he has done it from the bottom in a high wage economy which every business expert in the world said was impossible. I have had MBA tell me over and over that Musk is an idiot, that I am an idiot, but he has prospered to become close to the world's richest and I have done very well, albeit not remotely like Musk. Still I have studied him in huge detail, been inspired by him and met many like minded folk who understand all of this and who are generally doing very well or are in scientific research and don't care about money. At the same time I meet all kinds of folk who go around pronouncing on stuff they haven't bothered to study. I was talking with a famous short and he was telling me a few years back that no company had ever reached the production goals that Musk was aiming for. He hadn't read what Henry Ford wrote and he hadn't studied Ford's production levels and in the by and by he had to cover his multiple shorts in a very painful manner.

This is a fabulous period in history. We may be seeing the end of the human race which would be a downer but I don't see how the current trends can be stopped as talented folk in all nations race to develop AI and the legacy folk laugh and cite historical examples of other daft schemes that got nowhere, completely ignoring machines becoming GO world champions which will be seen in hindsight as a pivotal moment in history.

Why would any one with good health not be delighted to be alive at this time and see the entire world change and the beginning of the conquest of space. Moreover with a science PhD I understand much of the new technology and have insights that most folk with business qualification totally lack. What is not to like and love about things.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445959

Postby odysseus2000 » September 28th, 2021, 2:54 pm

dealtn
Well yes, that's often true.

And unless you think every growth business is successful, and goes on to justify its high valuation, what is wrong with taking a short position?

The reality is many, even most, companies, especially early stage growth ones disappoint. Only the few survive (but are constantly referred to by those historians or students of "growth businesses" many of whom haven't understood Survivor Bias).

So the question is whether Tesla is correctly priced, or over, or underpriced. Only time will tell. To be so certain (and consistently so) is a risky position to hold, be that financially or reputationally.


There is nothing wrong with taking any position if the trader/investors has sensible reasons for taking the position.

But there are many things wrong with using arbitrary rule such as the p/e is large, short, the p/e is small, long.

For Tesla I studied many bear short thesis and all the ones I saw were based on ignorance from insufficient research or emotionally hating Musk for some reason.

Meanwhile all the research I did on Tesla told me that Tesla were executing well and that their cars were loved by those who bought them and that their message of creating sustainable transport resonated with a lot of people, particularly those in target markets that Tesla addressed.

Sure I could have been wrong and could yet be wrong, but I continue to study Tesla at an intense level and their competitors and as things now stand I see Tesla are pulling well ahead and the competition is falling behind. Looking at announced models and such likely to come to the European and US markets from China I see daggers pointing at the hearts of the legacy players, so why would I not like Tesla at this moment?

Additionally like Cathy Wood's Ark fund I actively monitor positions and peel off and and add as circumstance presents opportunities.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#445992

Postby BobbyD » September 28th, 2021, 4:26 pm

Europe, August:

Top models last month:

Volkswagen ID.3 - 8,025 (including 3,750 in Germany)
Tesla Model 3 - 7,878
Volkswagen ID.4 - 4,844
Renault ZOE - 4,065
Ford Mustang Mach-E - 3,743 (4th monthly record in a row)
Skoda Enyaq iV - 3,674
Ford Kuga PHEV - 3,666
Mercedes-Benz GLC 300e/de - 3,654
Kia Niro EV (e-Niro) - 3,601
Tesla Model Y - 3,543


Top models year-to-date:

Tesla Model 3 - 76,440
Volkswagen ID.3 - 44,625
Renault ZOE - 38,872
Volkswagen ID.4 - 33,543
Ford Kuga PHEV - 32,507
Volvo XC40 PHEV - 29,356
Kia Niro EV (e-Niro) - 28,393
Hyundai Kona Electric - 28,260
BMW 330e - 26,537
Fiat 500 electric - 26,064


Top automotive groups year-to-date:

Finally, here are the top automotive groups by plug-in electric car sales volume in Europe:

Volkswagen Group - 25% share (Volkswagen brand - 11%)
Stellantis - 14% share
BMW - 11% share (BMW brand at 9%)
Daimler - 10% share (Mercedes-Benz brand at 9%)
Hyundai Motor Group - 9%


- https://insideevs.com/news/536942/europ ... ugust2021/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#446591

Postby BobbyD » September 30th, 2021, 1:41 pm

VW looking to double energy density of PHEV packs, 62 mile electric range, upgrade charging from 3.6kW to 11kW.

- https://www.electrive.com/2021/09/29/vo ... -km-range/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#446652

Postby odysseus2000 » September 30th, 2021, 4:03 pm

BobbyD wrote:VW looking to double energy density of PHEV packs, 62 mile electric range, upgrade charging from 3.6kW to 11kW.

- https://www.electrive.com/2021/09/29/vo ... -km-range/


It is an interesting tactic given the imminent arrival of lots of low cost BEV from China.

Will consumers want some halfway house or will they want a full BEV at a much lower price?

My guess is that before long VW will have trouble selling PHEV.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#446679

Postby BobbyD » September 30th, 2021, 5:11 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:VW looking to double energy density of PHEV packs, 62 mile electric range, upgrade charging from 3.6kW to 11kW.

- https://www.electrive.com/2021/09/29/vo ... -km-range/


It is an interesting tactic given the imminent arrival of lots of low cost BEV from China.

Will consumers want some halfway house or will they want a full BEV at a much lower price?

My guess is that before long VW will have trouble selling PHEV.

Regards,


As usual you are looking at it from the wrong end of the telescope!

A PHEV with an electric range of 60 miles is a far better electric car than a PHEV with an electric range of 30 miles, and anybody springing for one is likely to go to the trouble of plugging it in which circumvents the two standard, and somewhat justified, criticisms of PHEV's in the past. Since the battery is the same size as the existing one, and the drivetrain otherwise unchanged it's an easy and cheap upgrade incorporating improved battery tech to significantly improve the product for those not yet enthused by electrification or for whom electrification has not yet produced a fitting vehicle.

It's strange how you see under-pricing as a threat to VW, but not when VW are substantially under-pricing Tesla...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#446682

Postby BobbyD » September 30th, 2021, 5:22 pm

Where's your famous cybertruck?

Tesla fans have long claimed being a poor start-up underdog as an excuse for failure to deliver despite simultaneously claiming that at a gazillion times the market cap of the rest of the auto-industry put together all other car makers are essentially dead men walking, but the first company to put an electric pick up on the market is a genuine start up, and by the sounds of it they've done a bang up job.

Rivian's first production R1T electric pickup truck rolls off the line


- https://techcrunch.com/2021/09/14/rivia ... -the-line/

Rivian R1T review: ‘the truck market’s game-changer’


- https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/r1t ... irst-drive

The first electric pickup truck sets a lofty benchmark for capability, driving range, and performance.


- https://www.caranddriver.com/rivian/r1t

I must admit, I left my time with Rivian impressed with what the company has accomplished. The R1T feels like a well-rounded product that has benefited from being worked on by people with an attention to detail. It's not a mass-market product, but 135 kWh of lithium-ion battery isn't cheap, and you do get an extremely capable truck. Right now, Rivian is working through its order backlog but says that new customers can expect delivery beginning in January 2022.


- https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/09/ri ... -the-test/

...also interesting it's being compared to the up coming Ford F150 a lot, another vehicle which appears to have considerably more substance than the elusive cybertruck.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#446694

Postby murraypaul » September 30th, 2021, 5:44 pm

On which note:

(Press release, not reporting)
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... gw.twitter
Ford to Lead America’s Shift to Electric Vehicles with New Mega Campus in Tennessee and Twin Battery Plants in Kentucky; $11.4B Investment to Create 11,000 Jobs and Power New Lineup of Advanced EVs

Ford to bring electric zero-emission vehicles at scale to American customers with the largest, most advanced, most efficient auto production complex in its 118-year history

Called Blue Oval City, the complex will be constructed on a nearly 6-square-mile site in west Tennessee and build next-generation electric F-Series pickups and advanced batteries

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Re: Musk endeavours

#446798

Postby odysseus2000 » October 1st, 2021, 12:00 am

BobbyD
As usual you are looking at it from the wrong end of the telescope!

A PHEV with an electric range of 60 miles is a far better electric car than a PHEV with an electric range of 30 miles, and anybody springing for one is likely to go to the trouble of plugging it in which circumvents the two standard, and somewhat justified, criticisms of PHEV's in the past. Since the battery is the same size as the existing one, and the drivetrain otherwise unchanged it's an easy and cheap upgrade incorporating improved battery tech to significantly improve the product for those not yet enthused by electrification or for whom electrification has not yet produced a fitting vehicle.

It's strange how you see under-pricing as a threat to VW, but not when VW are substantially under-pricing Tesla...


PHEV are ridiculous technology, two engines with all the expense and complication of an ICE when one simple electric, or a few simple electric engines will do.

The difference between Tesla and VW is that Tesla are offering premium performance, VW are offering mediocre performance and obsolete technology and are about to go up against much lower cost Chinese BEV offering similar performance to what VW offer. A punter can pay more for Prius like tech, or pay less for BEV. Sure some will go for the VW, but many will be swayed by lower cost, perhaps half the price for better tech.

Regards,


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