Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Anonymous,MyNameIsUrl,6Tricia,staffordian, for Donating to support the site

Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 6926
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 217 times
Been thanked: 581 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449592

Postby BobbyD » October 12th, 2021, 5:15 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
Most of those MIC Teska sales were not sold in China. The actual figures are already posted in this thread.


What is a MIC Teska?

Are you also disputing the reported sales declines for legacy auto?

Regards,


The vast majority of made in China Teslas were exported not sold in China.

Haven't read the piece, just pointing out the error in your comparison which is so blatant it is patently obvious without wasting time on it.

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 6926
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 217 times
Been thanked: 581 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449597

Postby BobbyD » October 12th, 2021, 5:35 pm

VW starts selling electric lorries in the USA:

https://news.navistar.com/2021-08-31-Na ... e-to-Order

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449687

Postby odysseus2000 » October 12th, 2021, 10:01 pm

Tesla crash lab (4 mins 28 seconds) :

https://youtu.be/9KR2N_Q8ep8

Shows how Tesla use crash data from their fleet of around 1 million cars to determine most probable crashes and then test and use the test data to improve the cars resistance to impacts via over the air updates.

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 6926
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 217 times
Been thanked: 581 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449690

Postby BobbyD » October 12th, 2021, 10:04 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla crash lab (4 mins 28 seconds) :

https://youtu.be/9KR2N_Q8ep8

Shows how Tesla use crash data from their fleet of around 1 million cars to determine most probable crashes and then test and use the test data to improve the cars resistance to impacts via over the air updates.

Regards,



ID.6 crushes model Y

https://insideevs.com/news/539857/tesla ... id6-crash/

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449719

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 12:32 am

BobbyD

ID.6 crushes model Y

https://insideevs.com/news/539857/tesla ... id6-crash/


Looks to me that occupants in both cars would have been uninjured.

Depends which variants collided, but potentially id6 is 611 lbs (13.8%) heavier:

ID6:

https://www.google.com/search?q=weight+ ... e&ie=UTF-8

Model Y:

https://www.google.com/search?q=weight+ ... e&ie=UTF-8

If the ID6 is 611 lbs heavier, the model Y did very well as the rate of change of momentum (i.e. Force) is 13.8 % more than the ID6 experiences.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449720

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 12:36 am

Munroe test drives the Hyundai Kona (14 mins 31seconds):

https://youtu.be/DRGwGTvNdlU

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449721

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 12:44 am

A waymo ride:

https://youtu.be/Itsips5rJ3s

Make up your own mind.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449752

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 9:38 am

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
Most of those MIC Teska sales were not sold in China. The actual figures are already posted in this thread.


What is a MIC Teska?

Are you also disputing the reported sales declines for legacy auto?

Regards,


The vast majority of made in China Teslas were exported not sold in China.

Haven't read the piece, just pointing out the error in your comparison which is so blatant it is patently obvious without wasting time on it.


No, Tesla domestic September sales in China were over 52k:

https://insideevs.com/news/540158/china ... ember2021/

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449754

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 9:43 am

Catl announce a huge $6.8 billion battery recycling factory:

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/c ... ant-report

Regards,

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1762
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 614 times
Been thanked: 758 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449804

Postby Howard » October 13th, 2021, 12:57 pm

This year looks as though it will be another brilliant year for UK car distributors’ profitability. Every major chain appears to be reporting increased profits. Second hand ICE car prices are continuing their multi-year increases.

Year to date, it’s been more profitable to hold a UK distributor share like Vertu (I hold) up around 70% rather than Tesla up around 10%.

The same appears to be true for distributors in the USA with 2020 and 2021 showing record profitability according to surveys like the one linked below.

Whilst ICE car volumes are down, the profitability of manufacturing premium models seems to be holding up very well as they transition to BEV manufacture. For example BMW shares are up 20% and VW up 30% in 2021.

Markets are looking ahead as they rate these companies and the increasing profitability may not continue but investors are certainly betting it will in the short term.

regards

Howard
https://mercercapital.com/auto-dealer-v ... -industry/

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449839

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 2:52 pm

Live feed of William Shatner going to space in a Blue Origin rocket:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNI2x1NQYwM

Regards,

ReformedCharacter
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1938
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:12 am
Has thanked: 1372 times
Been thanked: 679 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449842

Postby ReformedCharacter » October 13th, 2021, 3:09 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Live feed of William Shatner going to space in a Blue Origin rocket:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNI2x1NQYwM

Regards,

Obviously a low-budget trip, no drive out to the pad in a Tesla, pfft.

RC

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449847

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 3:19 pm

Howard
Whilst ICE car volumes are down, the profitability of manufacturing premium models seems to be holding up very well as they transition to BEV manufacture. For example BMW shares are up 20% and VW up 30% in 2021.


BMW 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 72738?s=20

VW 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 99881?s=20

Tesla 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 25476?s=20

We see that BMW has been mixed, 2 months down, 2 up, but still not back to where it was mid year.

VW has had 5 straight down months.

Tesla has had 5 straight up months.

Howard:
Markets are looking ahead as they rate these companies and the increasing profitability may not continue but investors are certainly betting it will in the short term.


Not as I see the price action.

We are on the cusp of a huge number of Chinese marques coming to Europe and the US. Betting on legacy surviving this tsunami of low cost BEV is for the very brave.

Regards,

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1762
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 614 times
Been thanked: 758 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449887

Postby Howard » October 13th, 2021, 5:16 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
Whilst ICE car volumes are down, the profitability of manufacturing premium models seems to be holding up very well as they transition to BEV manufacture. For example BMW shares are up 20% and VW up 30% in 2021.


BMW 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 72738?s=20

VW 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 99881?s=20

Tesla 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 25476?s=20

We see that BMW has been mixed, 2 months down, 2 up, but still not back to where it was mid year.

VW has had 5 straight down months.

Tesla has had 5 straight up months.

Howard:
Markets are looking ahead as they rate these companies and the increasing profitability may not continue but investors are certainly betting it will in the short term.


Not as I see the price action.

We are on the cusp of a huge number of Chinese marques coming to Europe and the US. Betting on legacy surviving this tsunami of low cost BEV is for the very brave.

Regards,


Like your previous forecasts about car distribution this may be brave but wrong!

In the short term new marques will need to set up distribution networks. It's unlikely that there will be huge numbers of new distributors set up to service the supply of new BEVs. Building brand share without distributors will be difficult. It's taken Tesla a long time and they have had to invest in large sales and service sites.

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449888

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 5:19 pm

ReformedCharacter wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Live feed of William Shatner going to space in a Blue Origin rocket:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNI2x1NQYwM

Regards,

Obviously a low-budget trip, no drive out to the pad in a Tesla, pfft.

RC


Blue Origin transport to the pad is a Rivian:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/ ... n-n1274509

In price and scarcity, well above Tesla.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449889

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 5:22 pm

Like your previous forecasts about car distribution this may be brave but wrong!

In the short term new marques will need to set up distribution networks. It's unlikely that there will be huge numbers of new distributors set up to service the supply of new BEVs. Building brand share without distributors will be difficult. It's taken Tesla a long time and they have had to invest in large sales and service sites.

regards

Howard


One of the best sellers in the Chinese BEV market is part GM, so it has an entire existing distribution network all ready to go.

Others are also connected with major legacy makers such as VW.

Moreover, BEV are much simpler, especially the low cost Chinese offerings, with far less to go wrong than an ICE vehicle.

This distributors argument was used when the Japanese started importing and it didn't work well.

Regards,

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1762
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 614 times
Been thanked: 758 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449936

Postby Howard » October 13th, 2021, 8:01 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
One of the best sellers in the Chinese BEV market is part GM, so it has an entire existing distribution network all ready to go.

Others are also connected with major legacy makers such as VW.

Moreover, BEV are much simpler, especially the low cost Chinese offerings, with far less to go wrong than an ICE vehicle.

This distributors argument was used when the Japanese started importing and it didn't work well.

Regards,


Ody, Brilliant! You have been converted to the importance of dealerships. :)

And we obviously agree from an investment viewpoint it has been a good year to invest in car distributors as they are important in virtually all markets. Tesla certainly believes this because they have invested a fortune in their sales and service centres.

It’s also good to read that you're backing two legacy manufacturers who have world wide dealership networks. You are probably correct in suggesting that VW and GM are well placed to succeed in introducing new BEV models.

But are you right about the Japanese distributors argument last century? I doubt if you can supply evidence for this?

I know you aren’t familiar with driving and owning modern cars but BEVs are not necessarily low maintenance. The costs of maintaining a Tesla are higher than a similar ICE vehicle. I considered leasing a Model 3 recently. The high cost of a maintenance package was surprising. It would have cost at least £30 a month over four years for a low mileage quote. I queried this with my local Tesla sales centre and they admitted that regular tyre rotation was required because of the weight of the car and tyre wear and also a regular brake fluid service was necessary. Reliability is still a problem too. For a similar priced ICE BMW the same maintenance cover is £20 a month.

regards

Howard

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 6926
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 217 times
Been thanked: 581 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449956

Postby BobbyD » October 13th, 2021, 8:52 pm

Howard wrote:Ody, Brilliant! You have been converted to the importance of dealerships. :)


Oh what tangled webs we weave,
when we practice to pretend that absolutely everything is a positive for Tesla...

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449973

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 10:04 pm

Howard
Ody, Brilliant! You have been converted to the importance of dealerships.


No, I was simply noting that some of the coming imports will fit into the existing legacy dealership.

Howard
And we obviously agree from an investment viewpoint it has been a good year to invest in car distributors as they are important in virtually all markets. Tesla certainly believes this because they have invested a fortune in their sales and service centres.


Think this is transitory and in the by and by they disappear.

Howard
It’s also good to read that you're backing two legacy manufacturers who have world wide dealership networks. You are probably correct in suggesting that VW and GM are well placed to succeed in introducing new BEV models.


No, the legacy makers will likely use their own dealerships and this will kill their existing business. Once that happens they become shells for the Chinese makers and get into all manner of balance sheet, union and political trouble.

Howard
But are you right about the Japanese distributors argument last century? I doubt if you can supply evidence for this?


Find someone who remembers when the Japanese came. Before long lots of independent dealers started working for the Japanese as their base cars had luxury features like heaters and radios that UK base marques didn't and they were reliable. My retired scrap yard dealer acquaintance remembers being astonished at the state that Toyota came in after collisions and/or years on the road, many parts still perfectly serviceable and he still buys Toyota for his current business. Honda had a similar reputation.

Howard
I know you aren’t familiar with driving and owning modern cars but BEVs are not necessarily low maintenance. The costs of maintaining a Tesla are higher than a similar ICE vehicle. I considered leasing a Model 3 recently. The high cost of a maintenance package was surprising. It would have cost at least £30 a month over four years for a low mileage quote. I queried this with my local Tesla sales centre and they admitted that regular tyre rotation was required because of the weight of the car and tyre wear and also a regular brake fluid service was necessary. Reliability is still a problem too. For a similar priced ICE BMW the same maintenance cover is £20 a month.


For a premium model, folk are prepared to pay more maintenance, but even in your example it is 10x12x4 = £480 over 4 years. For anyone needing to go into emission controlled zones this is a small difference and electrical costs are still a lot less than petrol.

No idea why brake fluid needs changing more often. Most ICE cars recommend change brake fluid every 3 years, but hardly anyone does which can be a mistake as the fluids get black, from water absorption, and eventually reaches a point where in braking the water in the fluid boils and brakes do not work. It may be because the brakes are used so little if one uses regenerative braking and this lack of use leads to more water absorption, but I am speculating based on possible causation, I have no specific information on this.

Most ICE cars recommend regular tyre rotation for longevity, but this is again often neglected. For all wheel drive ICE cars one usually has to change all four tyres at the same time which is expensive and perhaps this applies to dual motor Tesla.

However, a lot of the Chinese models heading to the West are much simpler cars than Tesla and much lower entry prices with £5k being enough to get one of the best selling Chinese models. I believe the Citron mentioned recently on this board is about £6k. At these prices there is nothing very sophisticated and the Chinese experience, as I understand it, is of long and reliable operation with minimal servicing. One can speculate on how this will change the service and dealership model. E.g.a £5k car would cost less than many folk are now paying for a 3 year lease, making for the prospect of much lower second hand prices and more pain for ICE makers trying to compete.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4200
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1132 times
Been thanked: 571 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#449988

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 11:27 pm

Captain James Tiberius Kirk weightless:

https://youtu.be/61LsDTZVjR0

Regards,


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: murraypaul and 5 guests