Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34,Anonymous, for Donating to support the site

2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

The Big Picture Place
vand
Lemon Slice
Posts: 758
Joined: January 5th, 2022, 9:00 am
Has thanked: 174 times
Been thanked: 350 times

2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#474144

Postby vand » January 18th, 2022, 4:44 pm

First, apologies that this is all US data, which I do accept is very flattering to the current run, and if you had been a FTSE investors over the last dozen years you probably wouldn't be agreeing with me. Nonetheless, the US is basically most of the global market anyway, so my argument shouldn't be that inaccurate..

Ask people what the greatest era for the stock market has been.

Some will say the great bull of 1982-1999
Some will say the postwar period 1949-1966
Some might even say the roaring 1920s

My own take on this is that it's the current run we still in, 2009-current. Why? Because the amount of return that the market has returned to investors per unit of risk (ie, in risk-adjusted terms) is simply off the scale.

Using Portfoliovisualizer, I pulled the monthly return data of the US total stock market for various timeframes since 1972:


Period                           Sharpe Ratio         Sortino Ratio    Nominla CAGR    
Last Trailing 10yrs 1.14 1.86 16.11%
May 2009 - Current 1.11 1.85 16.37%
Jul 1982-Dec1999 0.81 1.23 18.33%
Overall (1972-present) 0.46 0.67 10.93%


If we make the reasonable assumption that inflation averaged 1-2% higher over the course of 1982-1999, then the current bull market has almost matched the real returns of the 80s/90s bull but with much lower risk, meaning that the ride has been smoother for investors of today compared to those of the past.

In terms of risk adjusted returns, this current bull market stands head and shoulders above anything we've ever seen in living memory. Investing is not meant to be this easy. Investing has never been this easy.

Of course, all good things must come to and end.. eventually. I don't know if the current run is at or near its end, but when it eventually does roll over then personally I would not be surprised if we never again see such the market perform with better risk adjusted characteristics over such a long 10+yr stretch for the rest of my life...it has been a golden period for investors.

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#474248

Postby odysseus2000 » January 18th, 2022, 11:05 pm

vand
Of course, all good things must come to and end.. eventually. I don't know if the current run is at or near its end, but when it eventually does roll over then personally I would not be surprised if we never again see such the market perform with better risk adjusted characteristics over such a long 10+yr stretch for the rest of my life...it has been a golden period for investors.


Most equity boom times occur when some new technology appears that people adapt in large amounts making money for the providers of the tech and for the people who bought it who see how it enhances their lives and business.

The 1st industrial revolution, was not really the first, there have been many before going back into the emergence from the stone age as people learned how to work metals leading to those with the metal working skills greatly out performing those without. On and on, over and over such revolutions have occurred. In the Victorian age it was the development of the railways that were better and cheaper than roads and canals, each of these had been a previous revolution.

Jumping forward to modern times it was the development of the personal computer that led to the internet that lead to the mobile, that led to Apps that began with the boom at the end of the last century and then lead us out of the correction in 2001 and created the prosperous times that even a major banking crisis in 2008 did not kill, whereas the 1930's equivalent did crush large swathes of the population.

Can this continue? Imho we have all the ingredients for an even bigger boom. We have a revolution in the cost of energy where renewables give us zero fuel cost power and that is now powering a revolution in the storage of electrical energy and the transition from combustion to electric traction for all transport save long distance jets and space rockets. At the same time there is the beginnings of a revolution in AI that will reduce costs and lead to a huge paradigm shift in employment. We will no longer need many of the expensive well paid people: GP's, lawyers... anyone whose job depends on thought and knowledge will be replaced with AI. A little further on we will see robots replace a large amount of manual work. There are many other revolutions taking place in the life sciences too that promise huge improvements in the ability to treat illness. In parallel with these are the first moves into a commercial space program that currently with satellites in large formations is enabling people in remote parts of the world to connect to the global village in a low latency manner. Any resource constraints of the earth will be overcome with missions to the asteroid belts and before long we can expect orbiting solar power stations to beam down electrical power with a 24x7 duty factor.

I could go on, but as I see things we are heading into equity boom times of unprecedented magnitude although of course we can see corrections a long the way.

Regards,

vand
Lemon Slice
Posts: 758
Joined: January 5th, 2022, 9:00 am
Has thanked: 174 times
Been thanked: 350 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#474328

Postby vand » January 19th, 2022, 9:42 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
vand
Of course, all good things must come to and end.. eventually. I don't know if the current run is at or near its end, but when it eventually does roll over then personally I would not be surprised if we never again see such the market perform with better risk adjusted characteristics over such a long 10+yr stretch for the rest of my life...it has been a golden period for investors.


Most equity boom times occur when some new technology appears that people adapt in large amounts making money for the providers of the tech and for the people who bought it who see how it enhances their lives and business.

The 1st industrial revolution, was not really the first, there have been many before going back into the emergence from the stone age as people learned how to work metals leading to those with the metal working skills greatly out performing those without. On and on, over and over such revolutions have occurred. In the Victorian age it was the development of the railways that were better and cheaper than roads and canals, each of these had been a previous revolution.

Jumping forward to modern times it was the development of the personal computer that led to the internet that lead to the mobile, that led to Apps that began with the boom at the end of the last century and then lead us out of the correction in 2001 and created the prosperous times that even a major banking crisis in 2008 did not kill, whereas the 1930's equivalent did crush large swathes of the population.

Can this continue? Imho we have all the ingredients for an even bigger boom. We have a revolution in the cost of energy where renewables give us zero fuel cost power and that is now powering a revolution in the storage of electrical energy and the transition from combustion to electric traction for all transport save long distance jets and space rockets. At the same time there is the beginnings of a revolution in AI that will reduce costs and lead to a huge paradigm shift in employment. We will no longer need many of the expensive well paid people: GP's, lawyers... anyone whose job depends on thought and knowledge will be replaced with AI. A little further on we will see robots replace a large amount of manual work. There are many other revolutions taking place in the life sciences too that promise huge improvements in the ability to treat illness. In parallel with these are the first moves into a commercial space program that currently with satellites in large formations is enabling people in remote parts of the world to connect to the global village in a low latency manner. Any resource constraints of the earth will be overcome with missions to the asteroid belts and before long we can expect orbiting solar power stations to beam down electrical power with a 24x7 duty factor.

I could go on, but as I see things we are heading into equity boom times of unprecedented magnitude although of course we can see corrections a long the way.

Regards,


I feel your post is not really what I was addressing.

Of course I will not debate that technical innovation spurs long term economic growth. But this is nothing new, and has been driving real productivity gains and capital markets for centuries.

Ultimately though real growth is fairly steady and predictable over long timeframes, see the chart https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings

That doesn't explain why at some points investors have been willing to pay 40 times earnings, and at other times they've only been willing to pay 7 times earnings. If you have paid 40 times earnings and the market decides that its going to reevaluate things and only pay 10 or 15 times earnings then you need to wait for an awful lof of economic and earnings growth to happen before you see a positive return on your investment.

It's true that companies have tripled their earnings since 2009, but investors were buying at 15 times those earnings in 2009, today they are buying at 38 times those earnings, so over half of the return since then has just been investors paying more for future earnings.

But none of this addresses why the markets have been going up with less volatility than in the past. My own view on this is that there are two main reasons:

1) The Fed and other central banks are now much more active in managing markets
2) Modern developed economies are less cyclical and more resilient to extenal shocks than in the past, as we have seen with CV19, though how much of that was due to massive liquidity injection is up for debate (see point above). We'll see how resilient they are to the next shock whenever that arrives that may be as the result of the management

NotSure
Lemon Slice
Posts: 915
Joined: February 5th, 2021, 4:45 pm
Has thanked: 677 times
Been thanked: 313 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#474340

Postby NotSure » January 19th, 2022, 10:09 am

odysseus2000 wrote:... Any resource constraints of the earth will be overcome with missions to the asteroid belts and before long we can expect orbiting solar power stations to beam down electrical power with a 24x7 duty factor.....


Hmmmm. You reckon this 'fact' will prop up the Nasdaq in the face of rising yields (discount rates)? I think you and vand may have different timescales in mind?

ursaminortaur
Lemon Half
Posts: 6891
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:26 pm
Has thanked: 438 times
Been thanked: 1706 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#474404

Postby ursaminortaur » January 19th, 2022, 12:06 pm

NotSure wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:... Any resource constraints of the earth will be overcome with missions to the asteroid belts and before long we can expect orbiting solar power stations to beam down electrical power with a 24x7 duty factor.....


Hmmmm. You reckon this 'fact' will prop up the Nasdaq in the face of rising yields (discount rates)? I think you and vand may have different timescales in mind?


Asteroid mining probably only really makes sense when you use the resources in construction on the moon or in space. Otherwise you have to get it down to Earth through our thick atmosphere. If you just let it drop then lots of it will just burn up in the atmosphere.
If you carry it down in spacecraft then you either need to continuously build the spacecraft in space, load them up, and then once they are down leave them here on Earth or the spacecraft have first to get into space against our gigantic gravity well before they can bring anything down. Either is going to add a lot to the costs and would probably make the operation uneconomic for most things mined from the asteroid belt.

vand
Lemon Slice
Posts: 758
Joined: January 5th, 2022, 9:00 am
Has thanked: 174 times
Been thanked: 350 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#474412

Postby vand » January 19th, 2022, 12:27 pm

NotSure wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:... Any resource constraints of the earth will be overcome with missions to the asteroid belts and before long we can expect orbiting solar power stations to beam down electrical power with a 24x7 duty factor.....


Hmmmm. You reckon this 'fact' will prop up the Nasdaq in the face of rising yields (discount rates)? I think you and vand may have different timescales in mind?


Too much kool-aid.

BT63
Lemon Slice
Posts: 432
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 1:22 pm
Has thanked: 59 times
Been thanked: 121 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#474460

Postby BT63 » January 19th, 2022, 2:44 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Most equity boom times occur when some new technology appears


This time, the 'technology' was the money printing press, or its modern equivalent known as QE.

The rise in the S&P500 in the last several years is closely correlated with Fed asset purchases, both in the timing of ups and downs and the size of the ups and downs.

It's not that the S&P500 has gone up; it's that there are vastly more dollars out there now than there were when this bull began, and those dollars may now be spilling over from the financial economy into the real economy in the form of inflation.

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#474571

Postby odysseus2000 » January 19th, 2022, 8:45 pm

vand wrote:
Ultimately though real growth is fairly steady and predictable over long timeframes, see the chart https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings

That doesn't explain why at some points investors have been willing to pay 40 times earnings, and at other times they've only been willing to pay 7 times earnings. If you have paid 40 times earnings and the market decides that its going to reevaluate things and only pay 10 or 15 times earnings then you need to wait for an awful lof of economic and earnings growth to happen before you see a positive return on your investment.

It's true that companies have tripled their earnings since 2009, but investors were buying at 15 times those earnings in 2009, today they are buying at 38 times those earnings, so over half of the return since then has just been investors paying more for future earnings.

But none of this addresses why the markets have been going up with less volatility than in the past. My own view on this is that there are two main reasons:

1) The Fed and other central banks are now much more active in managing markets
2) Modern developed economies are less cyclical and more resilient to extenal shocks than in the past, as we have seen with CV19, though how much of that was due to massive liquidity injection is up for debate (see point above). We'll see how resilient they are to the next shock whenever that arrives that may be as the result of the management


Moderator Message:
I have changed the above unattributed quote, in order that the person quoted might be notified that he has been quoted. Otherwise nobody knows whether it is a quote or an original contribution. In future please use the "Quote" facility, ideally by clicking on the icon (") above each post.

TJH

The huge gain in prosperity over the last century has created large buffers for most individuals. Whereas in the 1930’s people were thrown out of work with minimal savings, often losing pensions and money in banking failures, few sources of capital to borrow and with little State support. Nowadays most individuals have access to capital, pensions, possibly savings and a State safety net. There have also been the many growth themes that I have mentioned, all of these adding to GDP in large amounts and in short time scales compared to historical examples. In these modern conditions, individuals stress from financial turbulence are much reduced and this allows people to continue to buy what they need, thus supporting the business of the S&P and as more and more folk become affluent the sales of the of the S&P companies rise.

Within all of this has been the rise of modern monetary theory which supports the great rise in debt setting it in comparison to the rise in wealth and productivity. This remains controversial and who knows what will happen but as of now the MMT high debt approach has carried everything forward.

However, there are concerns about the level of debt and imho a world wide program to generate inflation so as to reduce the value of the debt in real terms. If this is allowed to rip we can expect severe inflation until a lot of the debt has been eroded and then the central banks will likely raise rates.

This is the conventional way in which central banks have operated but whether this works in the world of cyber currencies is far from clear. Even though inflation is severe we are not seeing much of a move in gold and one of the selling points of crypto is that is can’t be inflated by the central banks.

This brings me to the point I was making regarding about the pace of innovation and the wealth that is being created. Great advances in productivity were very effective in keeping inflation low, the old adage of inflation being too much money chasing too few goods didn’t work when the supply of goods was large and with continued product cycles. Politicians have recognised this by breaking the supply chains by simple methods of restricting drivers hours, reducing energy supplies and various tariffs and other obstacles to free trade and low costs. However, if innovation leads to new technologies lower costs and raise wealth so that the restriction of goods and inflation does not happen.

It is my thesis that the rate of innovation and its speed of adoption is now so fast that one can not assume that existing trends will continue.

Regards,
Last edited by tjh290633 on January 19th, 2022, 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

vand
Lemon Slice
Posts: 758
Joined: January 5th, 2022, 9:00 am
Has thanked: 174 times
Been thanked: 350 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#501798

Postby vand » May 20th, 2022, 6:38 pm

It was a truely unbelieveable 13 year run, but it's surely over now.

The economic paradigm has completely shifted:

- We are neither in a low- or dis-inflationary world now.
- Bonds still have room to fall before they are mathematically viable.
- Inflation is clearly not just a problem that only happened to our parents.
- Central banks can no longer just mop us stupidity without the risk of destroying our purchasing power further down the line.
- A good story isn't enough to make a stock attractive - people want to see the money.
- A some point, even Big Tech is governed by the laws of economics

As I said, I would be amazed if I ever live through another 10 year stretch that was so good in terms of risk adjusted return ever again within my investing lifetime.

NotSure
Lemon Slice
Posts: 915
Joined: February 5th, 2021, 4:45 pm
Has thanked: 677 times
Been thanked: 313 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#501805

Postby NotSure » May 20th, 2022, 7:03 pm

vand wrote:It was a truely unbelieveable 13 year run, but it's surely over now.


I believe the S&P500 entered official bear territory today.

vand wrote:The economic paradigm has completely shifted:

- We are neither in a low- or dis-inflationary world now.
- Bonds still have room to fall before they are mathematically viable.
- Inflation is clearly not just a problem that only happened to our parents.
- Central banks can no longer just mop us stupidity without the risk of destroying our purchasing power further down the line.
- A good story isn't enough to make a stock attractive - people want to see the money.
- A some point, even Big Tech is governed by the laws of economics


My bold. Not the finest English I have ever read, but I think I agree with you. Certainly for now, it appears the "Magic Money Tree" may not have been that magic after all (by which I mean QE maybe has consequences after all). I just hope QE doesn't follow the classic innovation curve - 'it's all good' -> 'it's all bad' -> 'it's actually quite useful, but not a panacea'. If so, then over-enthusiastic QT is going to be bumpy.

vand wrote:As I said, I would be amazed if I ever live through another 10 year stretch that was so good in terms of risk adjusted return ever again within my investing lifetime.


How old are you?

NotSure
Lemon Slice
Posts: 915
Joined: February 5th, 2021, 4:45 pm
Has thanked: 677 times
Been thanked: 313 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#501807

Postby NotSure » May 20th, 2022, 7:09 pm

NotSure wrote:I believe the S&P500 entered official bear territory today.


Hopefully paywall-free WSJ article:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-05-20-2022-11653032201?st=g3lbw4gnz9rwhdi&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Stock Market Selloff Continues; S&P 500 Drops Into Bear-Market Territory

A weekslong selloff took on new intensity Friday, sending the S&P 500 tumbling into bear market territory for the first time since the pandemic-driven selloff of 2020.

The S&P 500 slumped 1.8%, on track to close at least 20% below its January peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 409 points, or 1.3%, to 30844. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.5%.

It has been decades since stocks have fallen for such a prolonged period. The Dow industrials are headed toward its eighth straight weekly loss, its longest such streak since 1932, near the height of the Great Depression. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on course for their longest streak of weekly losses since 2001, after the dot-com bubble burst.....

NotSure
Lemon Slice
Posts: 915
Joined: February 5th, 2021, 4:45 pm
Has thanked: 677 times
Been thanked: 313 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#501826

Postby NotSure » May 20th, 2022, 8:39 pm

vand wrote:- A some point, even Big Tech is governed by the laws of economics



You may "enjoy" this article - already a little dated (as in a day old ;)), but it shows that half of the S&P decline is down to "FANGAMX" alone:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-market-is-top-heavy-but-carnage-is-widespread-11652935180?st=i901otv1pods2pa&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Eight companies are to blame for nearly half the stock market’s decline this year—and the pain doesn’t end there.

Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. , Amazon. com Inc., Tesla Inc. and the parent companies of Google and Facebook swelled to be so big in recent years that they accounted for 25% of the S&P 500 heading into 2022. The benchmark U.S. stock index is weighted by market value, which means the biggest companies have the most influence.

Just recently, those companies were powering the stock market ever higher. Now that they are faltering, the broader market is too. Together with Nvidia Corp. and Netflix Inc. , they are responsible for 46% of the benchmark’s 2022 losses through Wednesday on a total-return basis, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.......

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#502247

Postby odysseus2000 » May 23rd, 2022, 9:29 am

Hint: We are in a bear market.

Regards,

vand
Lemon Slice
Posts: 758
Joined: January 5th, 2022, 9:00 am
Has thanked: 174 times
Been thanked: 350 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#502271

Postby vand » May 23rd, 2022, 11:17 am

NotSure wrote:
vand wrote:- A some point, even Big Tech is governed by the laws of economics



You may "enjoy" this article - already a little dated (as in a day old ;)), but it shows that half of the S&P decline is down to "FANGAMX" alone:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-market-is-top-heavy-but-carnage-is-widespread-11652935180?st=i901otv1pods2pa&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Eight companies are to blame for nearly half the stock market’s decline this year—and the pain doesn’t end there.

Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. , Amazon. com Inc., Tesla Inc. and the parent companies of Google and Facebook swelled to be so big in recent years that they accounted for 25% of the S&P 500 heading into 2022. The benchmark U.S. stock index is weighted by market value, which means the biggest companies have the most influence.

Just recently, those companies were powering the stock market ever higher. Now that they are faltering, the broader market is too. Together with Nvidia Corp. and Netflix Inc. , they are responsible for 46% of the benchmark’s 2022 losses through Wednesday on a total-return basis, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.......


Can be Instructive to look at the S&P Equal Weight to see how it's performed against the usual Market cap weighted index:

Large cap dominance peaked around mid 2020, and has been mean reverting ever since. YTD the EW ETF has held up about 5% better than cap weighted.
Image

OhNoNotimAgain
Lemon Slice
Posts: 767
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 71 times
Been thanked: 147 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#502275

Postby OhNoNotimAgain » May 23rd, 2022, 11:28 am

vand wrote:First, apologies that this is all US data, which I do accept is very flattering to the current run, and if you had been a FTSE investors over the last dozen years you probably wouldn't be agreeing with me. Nonetheless, the US is basically most of the global market anyway, so my argument shouldn't be that inaccurate..

Ask people what the greatest era for the stock market has been.

Some will say the great bull of 1982-1999
Some will say the postwar period 1949-1966
Some might even say the roaring 1920s

My own take on this is that it's the current run we still in, 2009-current. Why? Because the amount of return that the market has returned to investors per unit of risk (ie, in risk-adjusted terms) is simply off the scale.

Using Portfoliovisualizer, I pulled the monthly return data of the US total stock market for various timeframes since 1972:


Period                           Sharpe Ratio         Sortino Ratio    Nominla CAGR    
Last Trailing 10yrs 1.14 1.86 16.11%
May 2009 - Current 1.11 1.85 16.37%
Jul 1982-Dec1999 0.81 1.23 18.33%
Overall (1972-present) 0.46 0.67 10.93%


If we make the reasonable assumption that inflation averaged 1-2% higher over the course of 1982-1999, then the current bull market has almost matched the real returns of the 80s/90s bull but with much lower risk, meaning that the ride has been smoother for investors of today compared to those of the past.

In terms of risk adjusted returns, this current bull market stands head and shoulders above anything we've ever seen in living memory. Investing is not meant to be this easy. Investing has never been this easy.

Of course, all good things must come to and end.. eventually. I don't know if the current run is at or near its end, but when it eventually does roll over then personally I would not be surprised if we never again see such the market perform with better risk adjusted characteristics over such a long 10+yr stretch for the rest of my life...it has been a golden period for investors.



Agree, this is in line with the arguments I put forward here:

viewtopic.php?f=55&t=34382

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#502303

Postby odysseus2000 » May 23rd, 2022, 1:06 pm

All of these arguements assume that what happened decades ago is what will happen again.

The problem with this line of reasoning is that the world and the economy is nothing like it was decades ago.

There has been a huge increase in productivity and personal wealth like nothing ever before and that process is on going.

We are now seeing a correction. Who knows when it ends and there are certainly many companies that have ridden the bull market to levels that are way beyond any intrinsic worth multiple, but many others are immensely profitable and are now on sale. How long does that sale last?

A correction in world equity markets like we have now is a huge opportunity to buy high growth business while they are out of favour.

Regards,

murraypaul
Lemon Slice
Posts: 785
Joined: April 9th, 2021, 5:54 pm
Has thanked: 225 times
Been thanked: 265 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#502312

Postby murraypaul » May 23rd, 2022, 1:37 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The problem with this line of reasoning is that the world and the economy is nothing like it was decades ago.

There has been a huge increase in productivity and personal wealth like nothing ever before and that process is on going.


But that was true decades ago as well.

OhNoNotimAgain
Lemon Slice
Posts: 767
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 71 times
Been thanked: 147 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#502317

Postby OhNoNotimAgain » May 23rd, 2022, 2:13 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:All of these arguements assume that what happened decades ago is what will happen again.

There has been a huge increase in productivity and personal wealth like nothing ever before and that process is on going.


Regards,


No, we have just experienced a massive amount of money printing and interest rates at zero.
UK productivity has not risen.

https://www.reuters.com/business/weak-i ... 20(Reuters),new%20research%20published%20on%20Monday.

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#502328

Postby odysseus2000 » May 23rd, 2022, 4:06 pm

Did you have a smart phone 20years ago?

Did you order stuff on line 20 years ago?

Did you have fast broadband 20 years ago?

I could go on, but the main point is that what is recorded in statistics & what is people’s daily experience are not correlating well.

Everyone & every business is far more productive than 20 years ago. Now I design stuff here, but have super high quality stuff made in China & shipped to me. No longer do I make circuit boards, I get better quality at lower cost and that applies across many industries & with it comes far better inventory control. I can easily put stuff up for sale to the entire planet of eBay buyers. On & on it goes, relentless improvements in efficiency & productivity.

The way we work now is far more productive than it was 20 years ago & people make comparisons with the 70’s, now 50 years ago.

Regards,

murraypaul
Lemon Slice
Posts: 785
Joined: April 9th, 2021, 5:54 pm
Has thanked: 225 times
Been thanked: 265 times

Re: 2009-current: The greatest risk-adjusted run in the history of the stock market?

#502333

Postby murraypaul » May 23rd, 2022, 4:41 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Everyone & every business is far more productive than 20 years ago.


And in 2000, everyone and every business was far more productive than in 1980.


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests