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Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#474085

Postby odysseus2000 » January 18th, 2022, 2:08 pm

Interesting historical account of the US car industry, coming rightness up to date with a new Chinese car from Imperium:

https://youtu.be/8fjeK2FKBjQ

Regards,

57 minutes 46 seconds

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#474093

Postby odysseus2000 » January 18th, 2022, 2:14 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Image

A full page advertisement in Sunday’s New York Times took aim at Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” software, calling it “the worst software ever sold by a Fortune 500 company” and offering $10,000, the same price as the software itself to the first person who could name “another commercial product from a Fortune 500 company that has a critical malfunction every 8 minutes.”

The ad was taken out by The Dawn Project, a recently founded organization aiming to ban unsafe software from safety critical systems that can be targeted by military-style hackers, as part of a campaign to remove Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) from public roads until it has “1,000 times fewer critical malfunctions.”

- https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/17/new-y ... f-driving/


Fabulous advert that apparently cost over $250,000 & makes the case for taking all human drivers off the road for ever as they are full of unsafe critical features that kill or seriously injure 10 people per day in the uk.

I imagine the $10k prize has already been claimed by someone nominating Microsoft.

In the meantime the authors of this add write software for mobile eye & many other software companies. Living in a greenhouse & throwing rocks!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#474358

Postby BobbyD » January 19th, 2022, 10:36 am

The Volkswagen Group and the Robert Bosch Group are setting up a project unit to explore the possibilities of industrial-scale solutions for battery manufacturing in Europe . The corresponding memorandum of understanding was signed yesterday by Thomas Schmall, Member of the Board of Management of Volkswagen Group in charge of Technology and CEO of Volkswagen Group Components, and Rolf Najork, Member of the Board of Management of Robert Bosch Group and Chairman of the Executive Board of Bosch Rexroth.

The companies aim to supply the entire range of processes and components needed for the large-scale manufacture of battery cells and systems. The industry-wide demand is enormous: In Europe alone, various companies plan to build cell factories with a total yearly capacity of around 700 gigawatt-hours by 2030.


- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... cells-7707

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Re: Musk endeavours

#474610

Postby BobbyD » January 19th, 2022, 11:30 pm

VW's deal with 24M finalised

VW to take over 25% of 24M Technologies

Volkswagen and the US battery start-up 24M Technologies have concluded their announced strategic partnership. The German carmaker is taking a stake in 24M and will have access to 24M’s SemiSolid technology for the next generation of its lithium-ion batteries.

...Under the partnership, VW will participate in 24M’s Series F financing round with an undisclosed three-digit million amount (in US dollars). Volkswagen will also “make further investments to advance automotive developments based on 24M’s core technology”, according to the US startup. The Wolfsburg-based company will also establish a wholly-owned subsidiary that will work with 24M to develop “a production technology for SemiSolid battery cells for automotive applications”.

The 25 per cent stake will also give VW a position on 24M’s board of directors, which will be filled by Dr Steffen Blase, head of Group Mergers & Acquisitions at Volkswagen AG. “The SemiSolidTM manufacturing platform offers the potential to substantially reduce capital and operating costs,” says Blase. “Through our newly established subsidiary and our strategic partnership with 24M, we are focused on bringing the SemiSolidTM platform to automotive applications and believe we can develop cost-effective processes to meet the increasing demand for EVs.”


- https://www.electrive.com/2022/01/19/vw ... hnologies/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#474918

Postby BobbyD » January 21st, 2022, 6:20 am

Audi RS Q E-Tron Completes Dakar Rally With Impressive Results

The three RS Q E-Tron range extender EVs that were entered covered 24,000 km/15,000 miles, won four stages and took fourteen podiums.

...It’s these very long stages, which take place in areas far from civilization and any kind of charging infrastructure, that currently make it very impractical to enter a pure-EV in The Dakar. However, this may change as battery technology improves along with solar charging technology that should provide a noticeable boost in the scorching desert.

The RS Q E-Tron has a relatively small 52 kWh battery pack, which is constantly topped up by a 2-liter four-cylinder turbocharged engine that Audi borrowed from its 2020 RS5 Turbo DTM (where it was tuned to make 610 horsepower). The manufacturer notes that the racing mill runs very efficiently in its role as a generator, using around 200 grams of fuel per each kWh it generates.

Powering the wheels is a pair of electric motors that together can provide up to 300 kW (402 horsepower) and they can send the 2-ton RS Q E-Tron to 100 km/h (62 mph) in 4.5 seconds and on to a top speed of 170 km/h (105.5 mph), which is limited as per the regulations.


- https://insideevs.com/news/562132/audi- ... kar-rally/

video: https://youtu.be/NwL6cgl0VD4

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Re: Musk endeavours

#474962

Postby odysseus2000 » January 21st, 2022, 10:11 am

Interesting interview with Diess:

https://www.theverge.com/22888316/decod ... lf-driving

He admits that VW target are close to impossible:

Those factories would have to be up and running by 2027, 2028 to be able to deliver on our 2030 goal. It’s close to impossible to do that.

He argues that selling cars in markets that don't have renewable energy does not make sense:

it doesn’t make sense to electrify the mobility world if we don’t first make the primary sector CO2-neutral.

Which is weasel talk for saying we can't do it, but all the analysis shows that electric cars are less polluting that fossil fuel cars.

He admits that VW have chip supply issues:

My outlook for 2022 is very, very positive, except for the chip supply. We suffered a lot. We lost market share in China because of the chip supply, and in Latin America because we prioritized the higher spec cars and the premium brands. That was quite a difficult situation, and we have to see that this is a structural problem which will continue.

There are a ton of interesting points but clearly VW are finding the transition to BEV difficult.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#475739

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2022, 1:11 pm

Tesla currently down 4% in the pre-market. Things can of course change but we could now be about to have a 2001 style crash.

There have been many lesser quality equities already broken but if this continued weakness in the leaders does not abate the whole market is likely going down.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#475843

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2022, 7:37 pm

Interesting idea to use wavelength shifters to boost solar panel efficiency from circa 20% to circa 30%:

https://youtu.be/gHhP6cjAvPE

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Re: Musk endeavours

#475978

Postby BobbyD » January 25th, 2022, 12:08 pm

Top Gear have driven Porsche's latest electric concept car the Mission R.

Seen it before, not heard the specs.

900v. like the 919 hybrid, developed by the same team as the 919 hybrid, 350kW charging, 800kW regen, 1073 horsepower

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jDKtwXUkao&t=130s

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Re: Musk endeavours

#476223

Postby BobbyD » January 26th, 2022, 7:08 am

New range king in town.

Lucid Air does 500 miles in Inside EV's 70mph range test.

https://insideevs.com/reviews/562511/lu ... st-record/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#476398

Postby Hallucigenia » January 26th, 2022, 9:36 pm

"our own factories have been running below capacity for several quarters as supply chain became the main limiting factor, which is likely to continue through 2022."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsma ... -building/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#476432

Postby odysseus2000 » January 27th, 2022, 12:09 am

Tesla end of year results now out & earnings call just finished, go to investor relations at Tesla for links.

Many points from the call, in no particular order & from memory.

Very strong growth when most Legacy has collapsed due to shortage of chips.

They expect Optimus (Tesla bot) this year, first job likely moving stuff in factories, on track to be a huge product, comparable to cars.

Austin & Berlin making cars. Austin made y have 4680 structural battery pack & waiting approval before selling starts.

Musk confident fsd comes this year & sees advantages over conventional cars at something like 5x, so a $50k car is effectively a $10k car, they see no trouble at all selling them.

Dojo not needed for fsd, may not work, but hopeful.

Supply chain still issues not completely gone, but mass of new fabs being built, so expect things will be better in the future.

Most storage going towards iron based cells, nickel reserved for performance.

No Cyber, Semi, roadster, or $25k car this year & possibly no $25k car if fsd happens as existing cars become effectively much cheaper.

Not all batteries will be 4680, not planning to use 4680 for power walls or mega packs.

Insurance, expected in all USA states by year end, Europe next year.

Growth expected at 50% & that could be done with existing gigs factories, but Austin & Berlin coming soon.

Tesla searching for 1 or two new factory sites. Maybe the PM is offering them a party if they come to the UK. Announcements of new sites expected later this year or next.

Ton of information.

As of yet modest stock reaction to earnings, but I expect price rise given that Powel did not spook the markets.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#476447

Postby BobbyD » January 27th, 2022, 7:26 am

Worth remembering this

odysseus2000 wrote:
No Cyber, Semi, roadster, or $25k car this year & possibly no $25k car if fsd happens as existing cars become effectively much cheaper.



when reading these

odysseus2000 wrote:They expect Optimus (Tesla bot) this year, first job likely moving stuff in factories, on track to be a huge product, comparable to cars.

...Musk confident fsd comes this year



Can't say I'm surprised to be proved right about Tesla's inability to deliver fresh product, yet again.

All aboard the vapourware express.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#476528

Postby murraypaul » January 27th, 2022, 12:02 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Musk confident fsd comes this year


How many years in a row is it now that he has said that?

Lets check Wikipedia:

In March 2015, speaking at an Nvidia conference, Musk stated:

"I don't think we have to worry about autonomous cars because it's a sort of a narrow form of AI. It's not something I think is very difficult. To do autonomous driving that is to a degree much safer than a person, is much easier than people think." "... I almost view it like a solved problem."
In December 2015, Musk predicted "complete autonomy" by 2018. At the end of 2016, Tesla expected to demonstrate full autonomy by the end of 2017, and in April 2017, Musk predicted that in around two years, drivers would be able to sleep in their vehicle while it drives itself. In 2018 Tesla revised the date to demonstrate full autonomy to be by the end of 2019.

In February 2019, Musk stated that Tesla's FSD capability would be "feature complete" by the end of 2019:

"I think we will be feature complete, full self-driving, this year. Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention. This year. I would say I am of certain of that, that is not a question mark. However, people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100% certainty, requiring no observation, perfectly, this is not the case."

In January 2020, Musk claimed the FSD software would be "feature complete" by the end of 2020, adding that feature complete "doesn't mean that features are working well". In August 2020, Musk stated that 200 software engineers, 100 hardware engineers and 500 "labelers" were working on Autopilot and FSD. In early 2021, Musk stated that Tesla would provide SAE Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021


Why does anyone listen to a word he says about FSD any more?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#476531

Postby RockRabbit » January 27th, 2022, 12:09 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla end of year results now out & earnings call just finished, go to investor relations at Tesla for links.

Musk confident fsd comes this year & sees advantages over conventional cars at something like 5x, so a $50k car is effectively a $10k car, they see no trouble at all selling them.

I have no idea what this means - but it sounds complete b*****cks!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#476542

Postby Midsmartin » January 27th, 2022, 12:47 pm

I think there is wriggle room in the phrase "feature complete" . The list of features, for example, includes city street driving. There is no feature called "negotiating a multi storey car park" or "negotiating with oncoming farm vehicle on single track rural roads with no passing places".

Having watched a few videos, the city driving is surprisingly impressive in many ways, though still with areas of surprising artificial stupidity to deal with.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#476546

Postby TUK020 » January 27th, 2022, 12:51 pm

RockRabbit wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla end of year results now out & earnings call just finished, go to investor relations at Tesla for links.

Musk confident fsd comes this year & sees advantages over conventional cars at something like 5x, so a $50k car is effectively a $10k car, they see no trouble at all selling them.

I have no idea what this means - but it sounds complete b*****cks!

Ah, but these [expletive deleted] are Full Self Masturbation enabled.

Right now Tesla are supply constrained, so Musk can confidently spout all sorts of garbage about his selling capability.
But this is in an industry that is tightly supply chain restricted, and allocating scarce components to premium/higher margin products.
Need to watch what happens when sufficient semiconductor capacity comes on line to free up the car industry overall.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#476632

Postby RockRabbit » January 27th, 2022, 5:18 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:As of yet modest stock reaction to earnings, but I expect price rise given that Powel did not spook the markets.
Regards,

Er no, down 7%+ against a flat Nasdaq- market perhaps beginning to see through the BS?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#476653

Postby odysseus2000 » January 27th, 2022, 7:21 pm

RockRabbit wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:As of yet modest stock reaction to earnings, but I expect price rise given that Powel did not spook the markets.
Regards,

Er no, down 7%+ against a flat Nasdaq- market perhaps beginning to see through the BS?


Yes, I got the reaction wrong.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#476798

Postby BobbyD » January 28th, 2022, 10:04 am

BMW i3 Production Reportedly Coming To An End In July


- https://insideevs.com/news/563722/bmw-i ... ends-2022/


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