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Musk endeavours
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Musk endeavours
Tesla cars driving themselves around the factory:
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/188446709 ... DCpgdbFBxg
Regards,
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/188446709 ... DCpgdbFBxg
Regards,
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Re: Musk endeavours
It's poorly presented, but I think the table is total sales of cars, not just EVs
--kiloran
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Re: Musk endeavours
kiloran wrote:88V8 wrote:Interesting table of EV sales 23/24.
Do Subaru really make more EVs than Tesla?
It's poorly presented, but I think the table is total sales of cars, not just EVs
Ahh, yes.
Silly me.
V8
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Re: Musk endeavours
Tesla earnings call (starts after 6 minutes):
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Gub5qCTutZo
Results:
https://ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disclosure
Interesting earnings call. Tesla plan to have Robo taxi by June of this year in Texas. If all goes well expect to cover the US by end of 2026.
Optimus expect to have useful work at Tesla factories by end of next year, rapid expansion planned.
Elon was super bullish & sees a path for Tesla to become the most valuable company in the world , worth more than next five combined, but have to execute.
Most of what was spoken about is already known. The dates to the event happening are contracting, but we are still in the jam tomorrow phase.
Equity sold off on the release, but rallied after the call to be up circa 4%.
So everything is setting up for some epic earnings over the next few years.
Competition seems to be no where, but some are interested in licensing FSD, but Tesla only considering potential high volume partners.
Storage selling well, but constrained by battery supply.
Semi progressing well, but only expected to be one billion per month business, small compared to cars & Optimus.
Haters can find plenty to hate on, such as no mention of new affordable car, falling margins,,,,
Lovers can find plenty to love.
The point of “put up” or “shut up” is coming fast.
Regards,
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Gub5qCTutZo
Results:
https://ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disclosure
Interesting earnings call. Tesla plan to have Robo taxi by June of this year in Texas. If all goes well expect to cover the US by end of 2026.
Optimus expect to have useful work at Tesla factories by end of next year, rapid expansion planned.
Elon was super bullish & sees a path for Tesla to become the most valuable company in the world , worth more than next five combined, but have to execute.
Most of what was spoken about is already known. The dates to the event happening are contracting, but we are still in the jam tomorrow phase.
Equity sold off on the release, but rallied after the call to be up circa 4%.
So everything is setting up for some epic earnings over the next few years.
Competition seems to be no where, but some are interested in licensing FSD, but Tesla only considering potential high volume partners.
Storage selling well, but constrained by battery supply.
Semi progressing well, but only expected to be one billion per month business, small compared to cars & Optimus.
Haters can find plenty to hate on, such as no mention of new affordable car, falling margins,,,,
Lovers can find plenty to love.
The point of “put up” or “shut up” is coming fast.
Regards,
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Re: Musk endeavours
odysseus2000 wrote:..Interesting earnings call. Tesla plan to have Robo taxi by June of this year in Texas. If all goes well expect to cover the US by end of 2026.
Optimus expect to have useful work at Tesla factories by end of next year, rapid expansion planned.
Elon was super bullish & sees a path for Tesla to become the most valuable company in the world , worth more than next five combined
Tesla missed their sales and earning targets, and the price dropped, but the price then rallied on Elon's sales pitch.
I think the positives:
Energy generation and storage business - that is very profitable
Regulatory credits. It gets credits by selling them to legacy carmarkers. This is effectively government support for evs.
Strong balance sheet, high levels of cash
New model Y coming out
Sales pitch on robots and fsd. Every quarter its the same. Wall Street buy it, no sure how long that'll last.
The negatives:
Missed its sales and Eps targets. It's no longer a growth company, sales level off and margins down. For a normal company that'd be a major red flag.
Hyped up story fsd , robotaxi next year, get that every quarter. But tech bros love it,
No profits on automotive once take out regulatory credits
PE ratio over 100 for company with no growth and falling profitability
Cybertruck, say no more.
Elon supports Trump who denies climate change and is against the transition to green transportation

The stock price is up 100% in 1 year on stagnant sales and profits
So in conclusion nothing makes sense about this company,

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Re: Musk endeavours
Wall Street always trades on future earnings.
If robotaxi does launch in June & works it will very likely lead to rapid expansion of sales & profits.
Then there is the experience of shorts who have previously made the over priced, over hyped analysis, gone short & been slaughtered.
Wall Street seems like a deer in the headlights, too troubled by investor support & fearful to go short & too worried about the fear of missing out if the stock gets good news, to sell:
A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma!
Regards,
If robotaxi does launch in June & works it will very likely lead to rapid expansion of sales & profits.
Then there is the experience of shorts who have previously made the over priced, over hyped analysis, gone short & been slaughtered.
Wall Street seems like a deer in the headlights, too troubled by investor support & fearful to go short & too worried about the fear of missing out if the stock gets good news, to sell:
A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma!
Regards,
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Re: Musk endeavours
Bold claim here.
"The Best FSD System In China! 1 Hour Drive Using Huawei Qiankun ADS 3.2 Installed In Avatr 11"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuDSz06BT2g
Impressive test drive video evidence. Superior to Tesla FSD in busy Chinese environments?
Interesting suggestion by this driver near the end of the video (around 1hr.04min onwards) Virtually every new Chinese made car costing more than $30,000 in China have the lidar, sensors and driving controls for FSD. They are just waiting for the best software to be downloaded. It doesn’t have to be a car manufacturer writing it?
regards
Howard
"The Best FSD System In China! 1 Hour Drive Using Huawei Qiankun ADS 3.2 Installed In Avatr 11"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuDSz06BT2g
Impressive test drive video evidence. Superior to Tesla FSD in busy Chinese environments?
Interesting suggestion by this driver near the end of the video (around 1hr.04min onwards) Virtually every new Chinese made car costing more than $30,000 in China have the lidar, sensors and driving controls for FSD. They are just waiting for the best software to be downloaded. It doesn’t have to be a car manufacturer writing it?
regards
Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours
Had to laugh - Elon has described Ed Davey as a 'snivelling cretin'
Have to agree on that one

Have to agree on that one

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Re: Musk endeavours
Howard wrote:Bold claim here.
"The Best FSD System In China! 1 Hour Drive Using Huawei Qiankun ADS 3.2 Installed In Avatr 11"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuDSz06BT2g
Impressive test drive video evidence. Superior to Tesla FSD in busy Chinese environments?
Interesting suggestion by this driver near the end of the video (around 1hr.04min onwards) Virtually every new Chinese made car costing more than $30,000 in China have the lidar, sensors and driving controls for FSD. They are just waiting for the best software to be downloaded. It doesn’t have to be a car manufacturer writing it?
regards
Howard
There is a lot of AI confusion over the difference between training and inference.
Training is what allows the AI to develop its neural net.
Inference is using the neural net to make decisions on new problems.
So for example, the new Deep Seek is an inference model that may or may not have been trained on data, or on the inference provided by Chat GPT. This has long been predicted and is one of the reasons I am nervous of nividia and not buying at current levels although they may prove to be a bargain if one really does need training and lots of compute, but massively over priced if training on data is no longer needed.
The idea that you can create hardware and then simple upload software is an interesting one. It assumes that the software can work with what ever cameras and stuff that a car has without any training for the particular cameras and can also use either vision alone or vision plus lidar.
It is impossible to know the state of Chinese AI without direct knowledge, just as we still don't know how Deep Seek has been created. There is a huge range of opinions on AI even within expert communities. On the AI endeavours board I posted a short video on what the 2024 Nobelist Hinton thinks and if he is right and he know more than most, then AI is sentient and is embarking on the Agent phase where it will make decisions in order to reach what ever goal has been set or which it may set. A situation predicted by the movie The Matrix.
If the AI is that powerful now then the Chinese system may be the best on the planet, but all the independent tests I have seen suggest it is feeble and years behind Tesla. Break throughs and leapfrogs can happen so we just don't know.
There are a few scenarios here:
Chinese AI claims are the calls of crooks.
Chinese AI is years ahead of Tesla. If so the days of human control of the world are close to over.
What do I think? As of now I think the Chinese AI claims are exaggerated, but I can not be 100% sure that is the case. The share performant of Nvidia is the best tell I currently know of. If the Chinese claims are proved false then Nvidia should recover its losses, if not we will have to assume that China is now the world's AI super power.
I should also note that I have recently been testing Grok and it is technically impressive. It still has some faults but overall it is a a private tutor on any subject on the planet which means that many human based industries are about to collapse: Schools, Universities, GP's, management, politicians,.. The more sophisticated and highest earning professions are the easiest careers for AI to replace. Currently the manually skilled professions: Dentists, surgeons, plumbers, gardeners, farmers etc can not be replaced but in the by and by robots will replace them.
Tesla looks to have followed Steve Jobs in cannibalising its cars in favour of moving into AI, robotics and self driving.
If this analysis is correct all the Trump tariffs will fail as each nation will switch to AI for its needs.
Regards,
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Re: Musk endeavours
odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla plan to have Robo taxi by June of this year in Texas. If all goes well expect to cover the US by end of 2026.
More Musk deadlines, we know how that works. I'll say it again that the Vegas Loop is a canary in the mine for me - I find it hard to believe that FSD will be ready for surface roads if it can't be trusted in purpose-built one-way tunnels without any weather or mud. Back in August the convention center boss was expecting "driver assistance" by the end of 2024 with no date fixed for full autonomy. We've not heard anything since, although in November the Model Y was still seeing ghost cars in the tunnel walls. (in passing, here's his thoughts on the future of that venture : "Obviously I don’t have much in the way of insight into the inner workings of The Boring Company, other than the fact that the company’s CEO is ranked 19th in the world in Diablo IV, and tweets over 100 times per day. If you were to ask me, the company that has dug a grand total of 2.2 miles of tunnel in seven years probably won’t be digging a 265 mile tunnel [from LA to Vegas] for 35 mph taxis to drive through.)
On the bright side, v13.2 seems to be significantly better than previous versions according to teslafsdtracker.com, it's more than doubled its city miles between critical engagements to, umm, 207 miles - still about 100x worse than Waymo. Another canary would be when Tesla start being transparent and release their own data on disengagements. Talking of Waymo, in October Waymo announced they were doing more than a million autonomous miles per week, on 150,000 paid trips per week.
odysseus2000 wrote:Semi progressing well, but only expected to be one billion per month business, small compared to cars & Optimus.
To be more precise, even a billion per month is a way off, the exact quote is "The first builds of the high volume Semi design come late this year in 2025 and begin ramping early in 2026...It's a several billion a year opportunity, which I don't know in this context. Is that -- these days, does several billion a year matter? I think it does. It's not nothing. It's probably -- it might -- it’s probably like a $10 billion a year thing. That's $1 billion a month at some point probably. But it's -- all this is going to pale in comparison to Optimus. So yeah, $1 billion a month is a lot but it's not -- it's going to be like 1% of Optimus."
They've said in the past that the new factory would have capacity for 50,000 Semis/year, at $180k/unit that would be $9bn/year. But it takes time to get there, as they've seen with the Cybertruck.
odysseus2000 wrote:Optimus expect to have useful work at Tesla factories by end of next year, rapid expansion planned.
This year, no?
"Well, the -- it may -- for this year we expect to just close the loop with Optimus being used internally at Tesla...we expect to use Optimus for those tasks at our factories and that'll help us close loop for improvement this year. It really was the production Version 2 which I think launches sometime next year. I'd like it to be the beginning of next year but maybe it's more like the middle of next year. And then we have to -- with a production line that is designed for -- on the order of 10,000 units a month versus 1,000 units a month. So, when you're designing a production line for 1,000 units a month, it takes you a while to actually reach anywhere close to 1,000 units a month. For any given production output, it takes a while to actually reach its potential. The current line that we're designing is for roughly 1,000 units a month of Optimus robots. The next line would be for 10,000 units a month. The line after that would be for 100,000 units a month. And I think probably with Version 2, it is a very rough guess because there's so much uncertainty here, very rough guess that we start delivering Optimus robots to companies that are outside of Tesla in maybe the second half of next year, something like that"
Meanwhile Agility were trialling Digit in third-party factories in 2023, and have signed commercial agreements on the back of those trials, aside from sales to their investor Amazon. Their current factory is 10,000/year. Meanwhile Hyundai/Boston were demonstrating Atlas doing car factory work autonomously when Optimus was still using human control to serve drinks, and are targeting Atlas for car factory trials by the end of 2025.
So at the very least it's hard to see that Tesla have any kind of first-mover advantage - that's just two competitors but there's many more, just among the ones we know about - but how many "DeepSeek-type" companies are lurking out there in stealth mode waiting to unleash their own robots, or are we saying that the Chinese aren't capable of combining EV-type technology, mass manufacturing, and some AI to make a significant competitor????
Obviously in the above quote he's hinting that he wants to see Optimus as a $1tn sales opportunity for Tesla, without catching the attention of the SEC. We'll see - the entire global car industry is worth $3-4tn. Is it plausible that Optimus could be worth as much as a third of the global car industry?
Demand will not be a problem even at a high price. And then as I said, like, once we start -- once we're at a steady state of above 1 million units a year, I think the production -- I'm confident at 1 million units a year, that the production cost of Optimus will be less than $20,000...I would expect that at similar volumes to say the Model Y, which is over 1 million units a year, that you'd see Optimus be, I don't know, half the cost or something like that. What the price of Optimus is a different matter. The price of Optimus will be set by the market demand.
This is interesting, as it feels like Musk admitting that he can't compete with China on price, it feels a bit of a rolling back from his previous comments about "affordability is everything...Henry Ford...etc etc". It feels like someone has run some actual numbers on Optimus production costs, that look rather more than $20k when you don't have economies of scale.
odysseus2000 wrote:Elon was super bullish & sees a path for Tesla to become the most valuable company in the world , worth more than next five combined, but have to execute.
Of course he's bullish, that's his job (as well as talking his own book). He seems to be putting a lot on Optimus taking over the world without any competition from anywhere else, and then putting a similar ridiculous multiplier on earnings as there are now. It's our job as investors to assess the credibility of what he says, given his past record.
odysseus2000 wrote:Storage selling well, but constrained by battery supply.
General problem for Western companies in general, but would also apply to the vehicles if there was more demand for them...
odysseus2000 wrote:Haters can find plenty to hate on, such as no mention of new affordable car,
The cheaper car was mentioned in slide 12, no? Kinda weird that they didn't talk more about it, guess they're saving it for a separate hype event.
Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up. This approach will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times.
odysseus2000 wrote:falling margins
Well yes, it's funny how you don't mention finances on a financial website... Bear in mind the context is global EV sales were up 25% yoy in 2024, with China up 40%, ROTW up 27%, North America up 9% and Europe down 3%. So you would have thought that 2024 should have been pretty good for a company in that sector whose two main bases with 84% of production capacity are China and the US, even if next year may not be so good :
"the removal of subsidies in Germany had a devastating impact on the whole European market, if the US follows suit, we may see the same there...the EV market in the US will be tested in 2025, with the threat of the EPA emission standards or EV tax credit potentially being reversed"
So that's the background by which a fall in deliveries for 2024 should be judged - it is very bad given the market that Tesla are operating in. And I'm a bit suspicious of the 2% rise in deliveries for Q4 - 11,603 cars - given the sudden increase of ~12k on lease and the drop of 9 days (~10k cars) inventory, it feels like they may have just bunged some of the inventory on lease, knowing that the comparator for Q1 is weak.
The fact that they missed Wall St forecasts for what is it, the fifth time in 6 quarters did I see?, should not be much of a surprise, it says more about the low quality of the fanboy analysts than the company. But yeah, there's not much good there - not only did they deliver fewer cars in 2024 than the previous year, but automotive revenues down 8.2%, automotive margins down from 18.9% to 16.6%, the only thing saving the car side was higher regulatory credits. Talking of which :
Adamski wrote:No profits on automotive once take out regulatory credits...
I think you're mixing up annual and quarterly numbers, in q4 the credits represented about 21% of the $3,288m gross automotive profit, and about 30% of net profits.
Adamski wrote:Elon supports Trump who denies climate change and is against the transition to green transportation![]()
More to the point, Musk's proximity to Trump that was seen as such a plus to Tesla's share price in November, now looks a liability. It makes his companies the perfect target for symbolic action from countries that don't really want to get into a tariff war (because even in retaliation, tariffs generally hurt the people imposing them more than their "targets"). You've already seen Ontario "ripping up" a $100m contract with Starlink for instance. And given what Musk is trying to do to US Treasury payments, he's in no position to complain about tortious interference with contractual relationships...
odysseus2000 wrote:Wall Street always trades on future earnings.
But generally only 18 months ahead or so, not 10 years.
odysseus2000 wrote:If robotaxi does launch in June & works it will very likely lead to rapid expansion of sales & profits.
OK - what do you mean by "rapid" and "expansion"? Let's have some numbers - you must have thought about this, surely?
"Preparation is underway for Cybercab lines at Gigafactory Texas with volume production planned for 2026...– Cybercab...is scheduled for volume production starting in 2026
That doesn't feel...that rapid? Maybe the equivalent of 100k units/year in two years time?
Just looking at their spare capacity - they produced 1.77m in 2024 (including just 94k of S/X/Truck combined). They claim total capacity of ">2.35m" on slide 9, but eg 100k of that is the S/X line in California which is surely underused but not much help here. On slide 12 they claim "This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 60% growth over 2024 production before investing in new manufacturing lines." but I think that "expected" capacity includes Semi etc. It's worth noting that their 10-K says "we currently expect our capital expenditures to exceed $11.00 billion in 2025 and in each of the following two fiscal years." - that's around 11% of revenues. For comparison US Steel is closer to 15% and Microsoft and Meta are approaching 30%. The static top line means that R&D is creeping up as a % of sales, but is still less than 5%, Tesla is not really a tech company.
Anyway - say there's 100k Cybercabs per year being produced in 2027 - what's the cost, what's the markup, what's the business model? Do they even sell them, or do they operate them as cabs themselves?
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Re: Musk endeavours
Tesla sales are dropping like a stone in Europe in January. France, Sweden, Norway all sharply down. UK figures for Jan not out yet, but were up strongly in December. You'd guess ours follow. On the back of Elon's support for Trump, 'nazi salute' and support for the AfD.
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Re: Musk endeavours
Adamski wrote:Tesla sales are dropping like a stone in Europe in January. France, Sweden, Norway all sharply down. UK figures for Jan not out yet, but were up strongly in December. You'd guess ours follow. On the back of Elon's support for Trump, 'nazi salute' and support for the AfD.
Last quarter of 2024 Tesla cleared out a lot of inventory to make way for the new model Y which is not yet shipping in volume. To be sure that Tesla sales are falling we need to wait to see how the new model y addresses the desires of buyers.
Regards,
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Re: Musk endeavours
Adamski wrote:Tesla sales are dropping like a stone in Europe in January. France, Sweden, Norway all sharply down. UK figures for Jan not out yet, but were up strongly in December. You'd guess ours follow. On the back of Elon's support for Trump, 'nazi salute' and support for the AfD.
SMMT figures are out 9am tomorrow but according to New Automotive, Tesla are down to 7th place in the biggest EV market in Europe :
https://storage.googleapis.com/public_d ... pdf#page=2
Meanwhile 43% of new Minis in the UK are electric - but small electric cars are too difficult or something.
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Re: Musk endeavours
SMMT - Tesla down 7.8% in the UK in January and overtaken by BYD, meanwhile Ford is down 31% yoy. BEV market as a whole up 42% yoy.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/ (manufacturers on second tab)
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/ (manufacturers on second tab)
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Re: Musk endeavours
Hallucigenia wrote:SMMT - Tesla down 7.8% in the UK in January and overtaken by BYD, meanwhile Ford is down 31% yoy. BEV market as a whole up 42% yoy.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/ (manufacturers on second tab)
Wow, proves my point. Only one month's figures, but the Musk backlash is definitely having an impact. If we're moving to BEV's as planned Tesla should be growing sales and market share every month. This is going to big news. Whole of Europe down, ditto Canada, China and California.
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Re: Musk endeavours
Adamski wrote:Hallucigenia wrote:SMMT - Tesla down 7.8% in the UK in January and overtaken by BYD, meanwhile Ford is down 31% yoy. BEV market as a whole up 42% yoy.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/ (manufacturers on second tab)
Wow, proves my point. Only one month's figures, but the Musk backlash is definitely having an impact. If we're moving to BEV's as planned Tesla should be growing sales and market share every month. This is going to big news. Whole of Europe down, ditto Canada, China and California.
This all coincides with the new model Y, so that needs time to build with postponed sales.
Regards,
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Re: Musk endeavours
Hallucigenia wrote:Adamski wrote:Tesla sales are dropping like a stone in Europe in January. France, Sweden, Norway all sharply down. UK figures for Jan not out yet, but were up strongly in December. You'd guess ours follow. On the back of Elon's support for Trump, 'nazi salute' and support for the AfD.
SMMT figures are out 9am tomorrow but according to New Automotive, Tesla are down to 7th place in the biggest EV market in Europe :
https://storage.googleapis.com/public_d ... pdf#page=2
Meanwhile 43% of new Minis in the UK are electric - but small electric cars are too difficult or something.
Like I have said, Tesla has model y transitionion, but also look to be cannibalising its car sales to focus on FSD & not currently to go after low margin small cars.
Regards,
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