The Lemon Fool

BobbyD wrote:

BobbyD wrote:

TUK020 wrote:BobbyD,
would be interested in an update.
Has this picture changed any?
tuk020

Oh, and quantumscape released a white paper which included these:

- https://www.quantumscape.com/resources/ ... rformance/

which they described a s a cell capable of charging 10% to 80% in under 15 minutes whilst demonstrating over 80% energy retention over 400 cycles, but if you look at the graphs they are both far quicker than 15 minutes and retain far more than 80% energy retention after 400 cycles.

When do you think this technology will actually get into cars on the market? And is it the lead technology? or will something like LFP get cycles of learning established before it arrives?

TUK020 wrote:When do you think this technology will actually get into cars on the market? And is it the lead technology? or will something like LFP get cycles of learning established before it arrives?

I'm not a battery expert, and as I tried to argue in the Musk thread I think it is dangerous to assume we know much of anything about what is out there. This makes designating a leader quite difficult...

There are a number of things I like about QS's project (The market doesn't currently agree).


QS's product is a separator, which prevents the growth of lithium dendrites across the cell, and so prevents them shorting out the battery. This allows you to build lithium metal batteries which don't catch fire, whereas before you had to build lithium ion batteries. The difference looks like this:

Figure 2 here: http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2020/ph240/kim1/

Can't post because of image height restriction.

Because it is 'just' a separator it can be used with a wide range of chemistries, so it isn't a matter of LFP or Lithium metal batteries, you can use the QS separator to improve LFP batteries in the same way you can use it to improve other chemistries.

Lithium Iron Phosphate on the QuantumScape Solid-State Lithium-Metal Platform

...We are currently partnering with world-class suppliers of LFP cathode material and plan to offer both NMC- and LFP-based cathodes to our automotive OEM partners. Our OEMs can choose the cathode type best suited for each of their models while enjoying improved energy density, charge times, and economics over conventional graphite- or silicon-based anodes.

Our goal is to bring to market a solid-state lithium-metal battery platform that, when matched with the right cathode, can serve a diverse variety of applications, from the high-end to the everyday. Electrifying the 95% of the automotive market that has yet to adopt EVs requires improvements to both performance and cost. Our platform offers the rare opportunity to do both, simultaneously.

- https://www.quantumscape.com/resources/ ... -platform/


As to how long... Any answer is a guess.

They've been working with VW for around a decade, VW have tested their products, had access to all their data, deemed them interesting and bought a significant stake in the company*. So whilst we can't see a lot, an experienced engineering firm with one of the biggest R&D budgets on the planet has, and liked what they saw. This gives me some confidence that there is something there which actually has a good chance of making it to market. It's no guarantee, and it won't be the only development if it does, I don't subscribe to the one winner theory, especially since their product is (assuming it can be commercialised) so versatile.

QS has secured more space in San Jose with an eye to production, and their JV with VW is probably going to settle on Salzgitter which is turning in to the hub of VW's battery division. I don't expect to see anything on the market tomorrow, I'd hope they'd have an established presence in 5 years time. So somewhere between those 2 dates...

* Worth noting VW paid a rounding error on their annual profits for it, however QS are firmly entrenched in their plans for electrification.

With what's happening to electricity prices, the transition that's supposed to happen is going to be pretty unpopular. Yes, petrol is going up too.

I recently refused to use a public electric charger at 45p per kW. And that's before the full escalation of electricity costs cones through. Fortunately, I drive a PHEV so I looked at the price of the charger and continued on my way on petrol. The PHEV averages around 40mpg on petrol. So even at 1.50p per litre it's much cheaper than 45p kW which in the winter gets me about 2 to 2.5 miles.

BullDog wrote:With what's happening to electricity prices, the transition that's supposed to happen is going to be pretty unpopular. Yes, petrol is going up too.

I recently refused to use a public electric charger at 45p per kW. And that's before the full escalation of electricity costs cones through. Fortunately, I drive a PHEV so I looked at the price of the charger and continued on my way on petrol. The PHEV averages around 40mpg on petrol. So even at 1.50p per litre it's much cheaper than 45p kW which in the winter gets me about 2 to 2.5 miles.

If you are getting 40 mpg, that is about 40/4.5 approx 9 miles/litre, so the cost per mile is 1.5/9 approx 16 p per mile, the electric cost is about 20p per mile. Sure electric is about 4p per mile more, about 25% more, but get rid of the combustion part of your car & they would be comparable. Anyone with home charging wins a lot.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

BullDog wrote:With what's happening to electricity prices, the transition that's supposed to happen is going to be pretty unpopular. Yes, petrol is going up too.

I recently refused to use a public electric charger at 45p per kW. And that's before the full escalation of electricity costs cones through. Fortunately, I drive a PHEV so I looked at the price of the charger and continued on my way on petrol. The PHEV averages around 40mpg on petrol. So even at 1.50p per litre it's much cheaper than 45p kW which in the winter gets me about 2 to 2.5 miles.

If you are getting 40 mpg, that is about 40/4.5 approx 9 miles/litre, so the cost per mile is 1.5/9 approx 16 p per mile, the electric cost is about 20p per mile. Sure electric is about 4p per mile more, about 25% more, but get rid of the combustion part of your car & they would be comparable. Anyone with home charging wins a lot.

Regards,

The electricity at the public charger was 45p. I think you'll find that's not unusual for non contracted public charging.

Anyway, if fuel goes up much more I will probably park the 40mpg PHEV and drive the 60mpg hybrid Yaris.

BobbyD
Yes, but an interruption in the supply of electrical harnesses as a result of Russian invasion of your supplier is unlikely to be long lasting or relevant to the endeavour to transition to electric cars.

German politicians are now acutely focused on how their country is dependent on hydrocarbons from potentially unfriendly regimes & they have finally let Tesla start GigaBerlin. Imho Russia in Ukraine is the tipping point for the end of ice cars.

Regards,

High gas prices lead to high peak electricity prices, making wind turbine investments more attractive too. But unlike gas, they generate 24/7, so does that mean the differential between peak and night prices will increase as the wind-turbines offload power at any price, so electric car charging overnight will get cheaper? If battery rollout is faster than turbine rollout, I guess the differential will reduce, as the arbitrage opportunities will increase.

Either way, I bet power security is on every politician's mind.

JohnB wrote: If battery rollout is faster than turbine rollout, I guess the differential will reduce, as the arbitrage opportunities will increase.

Looks like home battery storage for mopping up low night time tarriffs (and emergency backup power) might become just as effective as solar. This has been one of the reasons why I've held off from installing solar.

Also, I believe VW plan to have future BEV's equipped with bi-directional energy flow.

Interesting times.

The plan, such as it is, is to install 3x the existing wind turbine fleet in addition to what we have. There's very, very little grid scale storage available. I mean true grid scale, on the scale of Dinorwic, the biggest storage facility we have. SSE's planned large hydro storage project in Scotland seems to be going nowhere fast. We really need it. If you start designing it today, likely another ten years before it is commissioned.

At the moment, I fear lack of true grid scale energy storage is one of the biggest virtually unaddressed issues we have within the present transition plans.

scotview wrote:Also, I believe VW plan to have future BEV's equipped with bi-directional energy flow.

Interesting times.

All ID's with the 77kWh battery (or larger) are V2G capable if used with the bi-directional 22kW wallbox, with cars already on the road being enabled by an OTA update. Not sure which markets they can actually fit them in at the moment though.

BullDog wrote:The plan, such as it is, is to install 3x the existing wind turbine fleet in addition to what we have. There's very, very little grid scale storage available. I mean true grid scale, on the scale of Dinorwic, the biggest storage facility we have. SSE's planned large hydro storage project in Scotland seems to be going nowhere fast. We really need it. If you start designing it today, likely another ten years before it is commissioned.

At the moment, I fear lack of true grid scale energy storage is one of the biggest virtually unaddressed issues we have within the present transition plans.

Yes.

This is the big disconnect between renewables & reality.

There is political resistance & lots of lobbying by oil & gas & the small modular reactor folk supporting Rolls & also lobbying for more nuclear. Every pmq has someone championing smr which from my research is an hopelessly expensive option. The uk needs some giga battery factories & lots of storage & it needs to be funded via the stock market not by putting everyone’s bills up. Let investors put up the dosh & then prevent excessive profiteering with regulation. Whether it happens who knows, but compared to many other options it is relatively inexpensive & will provide lots of employment if the factories are sited here.

Regards,

BobbyD wrote:

TUK020 wrote:When do you think this technology will actually get into cars on the market? And is it the lead technology? or will something like LFP get cycles of learning established before it arrives?

I'm not a battery expert, and as I tried to argue in the Musk thread I think it is dangerous to assume we know much of anything about what is out there. This makes designating a leader quite difficult...

There are a number of things I like about QS's project (The market doesn't currently agree).


QS's product is a separator, which prevents the growth of lithium dendrites across the cell, and so prevents them shorting out the battery. This allows you to build lithium metal batteries which don't catch fire, whereas before you had to build lithium ion batteries. The difference looks like this:

Figure 2 here: http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2020/ph240/kim1/

Can't post because of image height restriction.

Because it is 'just' a separator it can be used with a wide range of chemistries, so it isn't a matter of LFP or Lithium metal batteries, you can use the QS separator to improve LFP batteries in the same way you can use it to improve other chemistries.

Lithium Iron Phosphate on the QuantumScape Solid-State Lithium-Metal Platform

...We are currently partnering with world-class suppliers of LFP cathode material and plan to offer both NMC- and LFP-based cathodes to our automotive OEM partners. Our OEMs can choose the cathode type best suited for each of their models while enjoying improved energy density, charge times, and economics over conventional graphite- or silicon-based anodes.

Our goal is to bring to market a solid-state lithium-metal battery platform that, when matched with the right cathode, can serve a diverse variety of applications, from the high-end to the everyday. Electrifying the 95% of the automotive market that has yet to adopt EVs requires improvements to both performance and cost. Our platform offers the rare opportunity to do both, simultaneously.

- https://www.quantumscape.com/resources/ ... -platform/


As to how long... Any answer is a guess.

They've been working with VW for around a decade, VW have tested their products, had access to all their data, deemed them interesting and bought a significant stake in the company*. So whilst we can't see a lot, an experienced engineering firm with one of the biggest R&D budgets on the planet has, and liked what they saw. This gives me some confidence that there is something there which actually has a good chance of making it to market. It's no guarantee, and it won't be the only development if it does, I don't subscribe to the one winner theory, especially since their product is (assuming it can be commercialised) so versatile.

QS has secured more space in San Jose with an eye to production, and their JV with VW is probably going to settle on Salzgitter which is turning in to the hub of VW's battery division. I don't expect to see anything on the market tomorrow, I'd hope they'd have an established presence in 5 years time. So somewhere between those 2 dates...

* Worth noting VW paid a rounding error on their annual profits for it, however QS are firmly entrenched in their plans for electrification.

super helpful insight.
thank you

BullDog wrote:The plan, such as it is, is to install 3x the existing wind turbine fleet in addition to what we have. There's very, very little grid scale storage available. I mean true grid scale, on the scale of Dinorwic, the biggest storage facility we have. SSE's planned large hydro storage project in Scotland seems to be going nowhere fast. We really need it. If you start designing it today, likely another ten years before it is commissioned.

At the moment, I fear lack of true grid scale energy storage is one of the biggest virtually unaddressed issues we have within the present transition plans.

Yup, up there with need to upgrade local distribution network

TUK020 wrote:Yup, up there with need to upgrade local distribution network

That’s much less of an issue if we can localise energy storage, through home battery packs or using cars for storage. EVs could be the cause of the problem, or could be the solution, depending on whether we can get the implementation right.

Gryff

gryffron wrote:

TUK020 wrote:Yup, up there with need to upgrade local distribution network

That’s much less of an issue if we can localise energy storage, through home battery packs or using cars for storage. EVs could be the cause of the problem, or could be the solution, depending on whether we can get the implementation right.

Gryff

The boat has pretty much sailed on timing or implemetation. The world's largest wind farm project is already underway in three phases (Dogger Bank) with much more on the way. We can't wait for everyone to have an electric car. Lack of true grid scale energy storage is a critical issue today and getting more serious every day. Government policy has been directed at encouraging renewables generation with almost no thought going into grid scale energy storage. Luckily, there are some companies investing in the opportunity created. But it's really very small on the scale of what's needed.

The politicians have been attempting to get a giga factory here for the production of batteries, but are not getting anyone to take the various bribes being dangled before potential companies.

It takes skill to be so challenged by execution, but Westminster is full of folk highly skilled in the politics of stopping this & talking up oil & gas & nuclear. One might get to thinking they were being paid by the legacy business. It doesn’t help that many of the politicians are challenged by concepts like volt, current & watt.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:The politicians have been attempting to get a giga factory here for the production of batteries, but are not getting anyone to take the various bribes being dangled before potential companies.

It takes skill to be so challenged by execution, but Westminster is full of folk highly skilled in the politics of stopping this & talking up oil & gas & nuclear. One might get to thinking they were being paid by the legacy business. It doesn’t help that many of the politicians are challenged by concepts like volt, current & watt.

Regards,

...amd yet on the continent battery manufacturing sites are ten a penny. Can't think why.

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:The politicians have been attempting to get a giga factory here for the production of batteries, but are not getting anyone to take the various bribes being dangled before potential companies.

It takes skill to be so challenged by execution, but Westminster is full of folk highly skilled in the politics of stopping this & talking up oil & gas & nuclear. One might get to thinking they were being paid by the legacy business. It doesn’t help that many of the politicians are challenged by concepts like volt, current & watt.

Regards,

...amd yet on the continent battery manufacturing sites are ten a penny. Can't think why.

Yes, but will they then let you build stuff. Giga Berlin is consistent with bait the global business in and then strangle them.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:The politicians have been attempting to get a giga factory here for the production of batteries, but are not getting anyone to take the various bribes being dangled before potential companies.

It takes skill to be so challenged by execution, but Westminster is full of folk highly skilled in the politics of stopping this & talking up oil & gas & nuclear. One might get to thinking they were being paid by the legacy business. It doesn’t help that many of the politicians are challenged by concepts like volt, current & watt.

Regards,

...amd yet on the continent battery manufacturing sites are ten a penny. Can't think why.

Yes, but will they then let you build stuff. Giga Berlin is consistent with bait the global business in and then strangle them.

Regards,

No, Giga-Brandenburg is consistent with a company with no local knowledge or experience assuming it knows more about the viability of a site than a local company in the same sector who didn't consider the site worth the effort it would take to develop. Nobody else has this problem, because nobody else assumes the rules don't apply to them. Chinese, Korean and European companies have no difficulty building in Europe, just Tesla, but this is obviously a problem with Europe, and not with Tesla.

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:The politicians have been attempting to get a giga factory here for the production of batteries, but are not getting anyone to take the various bribes being dangled before potential companies.

It takes skill to be so challenged by execution, but Westminster is full of folk highly skilled in the politics of stopping this & talking up oil & gas & nuclear. One might get to thinking they were being paid by the legacy business. It doesn’t help that many of the politicians are challenged by concepts like volt, current & watt.

Regards,

...amd yet on the continent battery manufacturing sites are ten a penny. Can't think why.

Yes, but will they then let you build stuff. Giga Berlin is consistent with bait the global business in and then strangle them.

Regards,

No, Giga-Brandenburg is consistent with a company with no local knowledge or experience assuming it knows more about the viability of a site than a local company in the same sector who didn't consider the site worth the effort it would take to develop. Nobody else has this problem, because nobody else assumes the rules don't apply to them. Chinese, Korean and European companies have no difficulty building in Europe, just Tesla, but this is obviously a problem with Europe, and not with Tesla.

No, it is simply German politicians doing their bit to protect their own car industry.

Regards,