The Lemon Fool

...All the investment comment worth anything was given in the first reply on here.

The odd thing is that the Dow is there or thereabouts and NASDAQ has suffered a bit. If it were to be negative for Trump's election chance (I think it is for highlighting his nonsense about Covid and other things) then one would expect Tech to have benefited.

It is Friday, few facts are known, only the brave of foolish will take position over weekend as things could gap either way on Monday.

If Trump has C19 and lets not forget that the tests are not 100% accurate and depend on the stage of the infection. Test accuracy likely poor just after infection, better when infection has multiplied.

Trump could be using this as a tactic, no idea neither does almost everyone else.

If the most protected individual gets c19, no one is safe, therefore remote working stocks should move up, airlines etc down again. Exodus from big cities to rural US continues, home working thrives.

If Trump easily defeats this, then either he never had it, or the understanding of the disease and the remedies are much better, airlines rocket up, back to work stocks rally, home working stocks fall, NY real estate recovers.

If Trump gets seriously sick, market tanks as can't protect anyone, no treatments work, home working stuff rockets.

If Trump dies, US markets are shut for at least a week, options with dates within period go to zero, anything that needs people together is marked hard down.

Probable increase in postal voting due to worries of infection, making election result date extended by several days as votes are counted and potential for 2000 style trouble when Bush was challenged by Gore, but much more postal voting since then. Potential great uncertainty.

In short there is not enough information, once its known and that might take several days the markets can move up a lot or limit down.

Caveat Emptor!

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:
If the most protected individual gets c19, no one is safe...

I think we must read different newspapers Ody...

The only thing Trump has protected himself from is the reality of the situation, and it looks like that reality has just arrived to loudly introduce itself....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Itsallaguess wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:
If the most protected individual gets c19, no one is safe...

I think we must read different newspapers Ody...

The only thing Trump has protected himself from is the reality of the situation, and it looks like that reality has just arrived to loudly introduce itself....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Ha Ha I don't read newspapers but I lived in the US and I have seen the lengths the US secret service goes to to protect the Prez.

Regards,

The markets won't like this:

https://news.trust.org/item/20201002203213-snxfc/

Lucky its over the weekend giving time for reflection, but if things go worse for the Prez I would not be surprised to see the markets open limit down on Monday.

Regards,

XFool wrote:

servodude wrote:

SalvorHardin wrote:Biden's mental competence is an issue if he wins. Which has become more likely.

Vis a vis DJT?

Was thinking the very same!

There is a distinction though. Biden has shown some symptoms of dementia. I can't say that I have seen that with Trump. He is a bit nuts by many standards, but not senile.

So Biden has the competence problem. Trump has the whackiness problem.

Trump is competent - he got his tax cuts through Congress and they benefitted business in particular. Biden is threatening to put corporate tax rates back to where they were - quite high by global standards. The markets want Trump to win.

SH's point about the decline in respect of property rights in cities is valid too. Some US cities are virtually socialist jurisdictions at this point, just with more of an identity politics flavour than we see here. That and Covid-related issues are making US cities less desirable places for success and prosperity. 50 years ago we had white flight from cities. Perhaps we will see it again now?

Probably good for Gild equity, but likely means Trump has symptoms which will be bad for markets:

https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/ ... 30529?s=20

Regards,

About 50% of all stock market wealth in the US is owned by the richest 1% of US citizens, or so I have read. They have done very well under Trump. He is their man. If he goes/disappears/gets voted out, their prospects are not so good. Though why they should worry about arch-capitalist Biden is beyond me. He isn't going to bring in a national health system funded by higher taxes.

Lootman wrote:

XFool wrote:

servodude wrote:Vis a vis DJT?

Was thinking the very same!

There is a distinction though. Biden has shown some symptoms of dementia. I can't say that I have seen that with Trump. He is a bit nuts by many standards, but not senile.

You are now claiming competence in gerontology? Not only that but with remote diagnostic gerontology?

Lootman wrote:So Biden has the competence problem. Trump has the whackiness problem.

Are you aware that Biden has had, since his early years, a stutter? The whole issue with Trump is, and always was, his personality.

Avantegarde wrote:About 50% of all stock market wealth in the US is owned by the richest 1% of US citizens, or so I have read.

Where did you read that? Most of what I have read is that the US stock market is mostly owned by institutions. And those institutions are mostly pension funds and insurance funds, which are basically proxies for the tens of millions of Americans who invest through those entities.

So for example take a look at the share registry for the largest companies like Apple. Invariably you will see that the largest shareholders are Blackrock, Fidelity, Vanguard, State Street and so on. Those are the not the wealthiest 1%. They represent the collective IRAs and 401Ks of tens of millions of ordinary people. Ditto index funds and ETFs.

Stock market investing is more democratised in the US than almost anywhere outside a few Asian hotspots.

Presidents physician gives an update from about 55 minutes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKYJVukDyPY

Very positive update, been given anti body treatment and Gilead Remdisiver and is apparently doing well with at least 13 medics looking after him.

Apparently most critical time is days 7 to 10, but as for now the spin is that he is doing good.

Barring any other developments this may well steady the markets and we can forget about his influence on the mkt.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:Presidents physician gives an update from about 55 minutes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKYJVukDyPY

Very positive update, been given anti body treatment and Gilead Remdisiver and is apparently doing well with at least 13 medics looking after him.

Apparently most critical time is days 7 to 10, but as for now the spin is that he is doing good.

Barring any other developments this may well steady the markets and we can forget about his influence on the mkt.

Regards,

Yup and barring any rain tomorrow, I won't need my umbrella!

John

odysseus2000 wrote:If Trump easily defeats this, then either he never had it, or the understanding of the disease and the remedies are much better

The vast majority of people survive it, even those of Trump's age. It has always been the case.

MrFoolish wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:If Trump easily defeats this, then either he never had it, or the understanding of the disease and the remedies are much better

The vast majority of people survive it, even those of Trump's age. It has always been the case.

Yes, but its effort that is needed.

Boris Johnson survived but he needed a lot of help, many others have been troubled for weeks with the illness and then with various after effects such as chronic fatigue etc.

If Trump sails through this it means the methods and medicines are now much better and the markets will imho rally strongly if Trump is soon back in the
White House.

Regards,

I can’t help thinking, and thought so from the outset, that this is an elaborate hoax to revive his election chances. The only thing Trump is interested is Trump, and getting re elected, he will go to any length to achieve this.

How a dangerous clown of this magnitude can get to be president of such a country is really worrying. At the moment we seem to have more than our fair share of really bad leaders in various important countries, making this shaky world even more unstable.

Bagger

odysseus2000 wrote:

MrFoolish wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:If Trump easily defeats this, then either he never had it, or the understanding of the disease and the remedies are much better

The vast majority of people survive it, even those of Trump's age. It has always been the case.

Yes, but its effort that is needed.

Boris Johnson survived but he needed a lot of help, many others have been troubled for weeks with the illness and then with various after effects such as chronic fatigue etc.

If Trump sails through this it means the methods and medicines are now much better and the markets will imho rally strongly if Trump is soon back in the
White House.

Regards,

It doesn't mean that at all.

You can't extrapolate and make such statements from a sample size of "one"!

dealtn wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:

MrFoolish wrote:
The vast majority of people survive it, even those of Trump's age. It has always been the case.

Yes, but its effort that is needed.

Boris Johnson survived but he needed a lot of help, many others have been troubled for weeks with the illness and then with various after effects such as chronic fatigue etc.

If Trump sails through this it means the methods and medicines are now much better and the markets will imho rally strongly if Trump is soon back in the
White House.

Regards,

It doesn't mean that at all.

You can't extrapolate and make such statements from a sample size of "one"!

Scientifically, you are correct.

However, I am suggesting how the market will perceive this and if Trump comes through with little trouble, the market will say that the medics now know
how to beat this. If a man of Trump's age can be got back to work quickly then the medics now know how to beat this virus. Whether that is really true or not, one can't say from just one individual with the best treatment on planet earth, but it is imho how the markets will react. It was a very similar situation with Ebola, lots of panic and uncertainties and then the medics cured someone and all the panic and uncertainty vanished.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

dealtn wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:
Yes, but its effort that is needed.

Boris Johnson survived but he needed a lot of help, many others have been troubled for weeks with the illness and then with various after effects such as chronic fatigue etc.

If Trump sails through this it means the methods and medicines are now much better and the markets will imho rally strongly if Trump is soon back in the
White House.

Regards,

It doesn't mean that at all.

You can't extrapolate and make such statements from a sample size of "one"!

Scientifically, you are correct.

However, I am suggesting how the market will perceive this and if Trump comes through with little trouble, the market will say that the medics now know
how to beat this. If a man of Trump's age can be got back to work quickly then the medics now know how to beat this virus. Whether that is really true or not, one can't say from just one individual with the best treatment on planet earth, but it is imho how the markets will react. It was a very similar situation with Ebola, lots of panic and uncertainties and then the medics cured someone and all the panic and uncertainty vanished.

Regards,

Er, about 50% of people survive ebola. I don't think (whatever it is you are referring to) the medics "cured someone" and what you described happened.

dealtn wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:

dealtn wrote:
It doesn't mean that at all.

You can't extrapolate and make such statements from a sample size of "one"!

Scientifically, you are correct.

However, I am suggesting how the market will perceive this and if Trump comes through with little trouble, the market will say that the medics now know
how to beat this. If a man of Trump's age can be got back to work quickly then the medics now know how to beat this virus. Whether that is really true or not, one can't say from just one individual with the best treatment on planet earth, but it is imho how the markets will react. It was a very similar situation with Ebola, lots of panic and uncertainties and then the medics cured someone and all the panic and uncertainty vanished.

Regards,

Er, about 50% of people survive ebola. I don't think (whatever it is you are referring to) the medics "cured someone" and what you described happened.

I was following the US market closely at the time of the Ebola scare and there was one patient, a nurse I think, who was in a very bad way and then after some treatments she recovered and when that news was released the market rallied.

imho trading and markets are mostly about perceptions and moments than anything else. The prevailing wisdom at the time of Ebola was that if that ever got loose in the west it would kill a lot of people, sure some number would survive, but many would die and there was no cure, no hope etc, the sort of story the media love. Then when the patient was cured the market realised that all this media stuff was rot and then discounted Ebola and has not been bothered about it since.

Regards,