Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Most of the media are heavily focused on yesterdays sell off, not the future which is what matters, but there is some chatter about a VW-Tesla tie up:

https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/ne ... 13363.html

This was specifically rebutted by the VW boss, but words are cheap.

"The fed is printing, buy!" mantra was evident at the US open, with many gap ups which have so far been sold, which is what I did, into and at this early stage in the trading day, most things are inside yesterdays price action, giving no steer as of yet on which way that market is going.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

"The fed is printing, buy!"

mantra had a good day as Tesla took out yesterdays high and just closed a little lower, not an inside day, potentially suggesting that the most likely direction for Tesla equity is up, based on just the hints from today.

Since 2009 there have been many examples of the media opining that this was the end of bull market. At the same time the naysayers have been out in great armadas telling everyone who would listen that currencies are doomed and the only options are gold and crypto currencies and when they haven't been spouting that they have been opining on Tesla being a great con that must collapse. That BEV can never work, recently Bill Gates was on about how the Tesla semi could never work and so it has been on and on. Meanwhile Tesla equity has continued to rally. Whether this will be another example of Tesla rising above the critics is still to be seen, but for now it looks likely to me. A strong down reversal in the price of Tesla equity would likely cause me to change my mind.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

"The fed is printing, buy!"

mantra had a good day as Tesla took out yesterdays high and just closed a little lower, not an inside day, potentially suggesting that the most likely direction for Tesla equity is up, based on just the hints from today.

Since 2009 there have been many examples of the media opining that this was the end of bull market. At the same time the naysayers have been out in great armadas telling everyone who would listen that currencies are doomed and the only options are gold and crypto currencies and when they haven't been spouting that they have been opining on Tesla being a great con that must collapse. That BEV can never work, recently Bill Gates was on about how the Tesla semi could never work and so it has been on and on. Meanwhile Tesla equity has continued to rally. Whether this will be another example of Tesla rising above the critics is still to be seen, but for now it looks likely to me. A strong down reversal in the price of Tesla equity would likely cause me to change my mind.

Regards,

A lot of what you say sounds to me like

"Tesla may continue to rise despite the naysayers, if it does then I'm in"

Or

"Tesla may go down in which case I'm out"

Seems reasonable to me.

John

[odysseus2000]

Please can we have more folk like this, opining all over twitter and the rest of the social media:

https://twitter.com/IGTV/status/1303693 ... 95393?s=20

Regards,

PS I have come to the conclusion that it is toxic to follow anyone who is clueless like this guy and by clueless I mean missing out on great opportunities. Trading is about the stocks that move the most and to argue, as this guy does, that things that moves a lot like Tesla and Apple are to be avoided, tells me to avoid anything he says. However, if one does that entirely one loses perspective as it is also toxic to only listen to folk you agree with. In this kind of thing one has to have a very clear basis as to what is likely right and what is likely wrong and someone who has missed the boat on the greatest stock of our time is someone who has shown that he has been wrong and is likely still wrong and needs to be viewed within that basis. Price action is what one has to respect in trading, not opinions.

[odysseus2000]

A lot of what you say sounds to me like

"Tesla may continue to rise despite the naysayers, if it does then I'm in"

Or

"Tesla may go down in which case I'm out"

Seems reasonable to me.

John

Yes, that is exactly how I view trading vehicles.

Additionally, the more fundamental and secular change they carry, the more I am prepared to actively act and reverse any sales to re-buys. Another example, although far smaller and far weaker in the secular change it carries, is Zoom. The more politicians send out mixed messages, the more sure fire vaccines disappear off into the future, the more likely it is that folk will continue to work remotely. In principle Zoom, unlike Tesla, has no moat, but it has a lot of users, a simple interface and it works and is popular both at the free level and at the corporate paid for level. Several other stocks also fit my criteria of moving and having secular stories propelling them higher.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

More jobs at Giga New York:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-energy- ... on-demand/

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Performance of bio-defence mode in S and X:

https://www.tesla.com/es_MX/blog/puttin ... edirect=no

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Competitor xpev (Chinese BEV maker) had a rough start:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/130406 ... 85729?s=20


Have buy stop set for small amount of xpev equity if recent strength continues.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Now re-bought most of the Tesla equity I sold earlier.

This market still looks like "the Fed is buying" buy which has been supported by rising equity prices.

This could go all wrong, but for now all central banks seem happy to print and spend with no worry about any inflationary consequences, arguing that deflation and or large unemployment would be a lot worse.

Hopefully some of this money will go from pockets into nice shiny and environmentally friendly Tesla motor cars to help everyone breathe better, but there is no guarantee of that.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

UK solar tiles, interesting development and at a 50% premium to external solar, but no info on performance, life expectancy etc:

https://youtu.be/kQC2HDjkDCk

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Nice example of how the market likes to make it difficult.

All the major US index stayed inside, essentially doing nothing and telling us that no one was prepared to put on big bets either way.

Meanwhile Tesla rose and built on yesterdays strength till 10:40 AM ( New York time) then it did a series of water fall declines till 3:20 PM (NY time) and then rallied a little closing above yesterdays highs.

Investors and traders were caught between not wanting to miss out if it started to run and not wanting to get caught if it started to slide and it ended today still with no decision, but day traders had a nice run down short from the 10:40 am peak $398 down to $361 low, a $37 point move, most of which was relatively easy to day trade.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

One of the points made on Tesla daily is the transformational effect on the auto industry of having BEV with upgradeable software:

https://youtu.be/MxSeEjk_-AU

Tesla daily do some simple calculations of the value that can be created by e.g. adding some features that are software enabled. A software upgrade might be something like extending the range, faster acceleration, different personalised display,...

If e.g. a big auto offers several software upgrades that are essentially zero cost to the manufacturer but add say $1000 to the price per upgrade. As Tesla daily note that if a business sells 5 million cars with an extra $1000 on the price, that adds $5 billion to turn over at no manufacturer cost.

If this plays out it seems likely that auto valuations will all rise as they are morphing into auto and software companies where margins are very high on the additional software. This is another huge problem for ICE vehicles.

Regards,

[dealtn]

Investors and traders were caught between not wanting to miss out if it started to run and not wanting to get caught if it started to slide and it ended today still with no decision, but day traders had a nice run down short from the 10:40 am peak $398 down to $361 low, a $37 point move, most of which was relatively easy to day trade.

Regards,

I think you will find it was only traders. Investors wouldn't care about such intra-day moves.

[odysseus2000]

Investors and traders were caught between not wanting to miss out if it started to run and not wanting to get caught if it started to slide and it ended today still with no decision, but day traders had a nice run down short from the 10:40 am peak $398 down to $361 low, a $37 point move, most of which was relatively easy to day trade.

Regards,

I think you will find it was only traders. Investors wouldn't care about such intra-day moves.

A lot depends on the sophistication and size of investor positions.

Sure retail investors wouldn't care, but larger investors will likely have had protection via options hedges on index or otherwise.

Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, for example, is a big bull on Tesla and runs a large active book in Tesla with a core long thesis but with very active short term trading around this core.

Ballie Gifford, another long term investor and bull on Tesla have also been active recently trimming and readjusting positions after selling some near the recent highs.

Regards,

[Itsallaguess]

As Tesla daily note that if a business sells 5 million cars with an extra $1000 on the price, that adds $5 billion to turn over at no manufacturer cost.

Software upgrade and enhancements, and of course the comprehensive testing of such, are developed at zero cost Ody?

It seems that TESLA might indeed be at the cutting edge of AI-related software if that's the case...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[dspp]

"Nikola Motor is under fire after an analyst firm called Hindenburg Research labeled the automaker as “an intricate fraud built on dozens of lies.” Hindenberg said that had “gathered extensive evidence – including recorded phone calls, text messages, private emails, and behind-the-scenes photographs-detailing dozens of false statements by Nikola Founder Trevor Milton.”"

https://www.teslarati.com/nikola-motor- ... -research/

That's fighting talk !

- dspp

[odysseus2000]

As Tesla daily note that if a business sells 5 million cars with an extra $1000 on the price, that adds $5 billion to turn over at no manufacturer cost.

Software upgrade and enhancements, and of course the comprehensive testing of such, are developed at zero cost Ody?

It seems that TESLA might indeed be at the cutting edge of AI-related software if that's the case...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

As things are in the auto trade, the dealer will often try and flog something additional to a new buyer. E.g. they might offer different wheels etc.

If the buyer takes the option, the manufacturer will experience costs in either making or buying the wheels and the dealer will have to pay the manufacturers margin and then make some of his own.

By contrast Tesla needs some software to do something on a top of the range car, so the cost has to be paid to develop the software.

Tesla can then offer that same software as an upgrade on a lower model. The cost to develop that software has already been paid and so it is essentially zero cost to Tesla to offer this. It is a very similar model to that which made Bill Gates rich. In that case the cost of developing window 95 was shared with all the folk who bought windows 95 making the cost per windows 95 cd, very small, and most of the sale price was profit.

Is there some flaw in my logic here?

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

"Nikola Motor is under fire after an analyst firm called Hindenburg Research labeled the automaker as “an intricate fraud built on dozens of lies.” Hindenberg said that had “gathered extensive evidence – including recorded phone calls, text messages, private emails, and behind-the-scenes photographs-detailing dozens of false statements by Nikola Founder Trevor Milton.”"

https://www.teslarati.com/nikola-motor- ... -research/

That's fighting talk !

- dspp

So are the bears doing to Nikola what they used to do to Tesla?

Whether the "extensive evidence" if fact of fiction I have no idea, but for the moment what matters is how traders and investors react as any legal proceedings will likely take time.

The price of Nikola gapped up on Tuesday but now has come down and filled Tuesday's gap:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/130437 ... 32224?s=20

So behaving like the market, although it may get hit on this news.

I kind of wonder how deep and dirty legacy big oil and legacy big auto are going to go to keep ICE cars on the roads. Nikola is interesting as they have a partner ship with GM and many pundits seem to like what they are planning to offer, although to me the eye candy is not appealing.

If Nikola prosper then that will help focus buyers minds on BEV and help Tesla. If Nikola are a fraud that also helps Tesla.

For now Nikola looks like a positive for Tesla.

Regards,

[Itsallaguess]

By contrast Tesla needs some software to do something on a top of the range car, so the cost has to be paid to develop the software.

Tesla can then offer that same software as an upgrade on a lower model. The cost to develop that software has already been paid and so it is essentially zero cost to Tesla to offer this. It is a very similar model to that which made Bill Gates rich. In that case the cost of developing window 95 was shared with all the folk who bought windows 95 making the cost per windows 95 cd, very small, and most of the sale price was profit.

Is there some flaw in my logic here?

Well it's not so much a flaw in your logic, as much as perhaps needing to temper your enthusiasm sometimes...

For much of this thread, you're pushing the idea that Tesla are moving into the Apple space, with loving consumers fawning over the top motor-tech, and upgrading often to keep up with the latest innovations.

Now you're telling us that owners can hold on to older models because their going to get the software upgrades as an automatic flow-down...

Even ignoring for now the fore-mentioned costs of developing and testing any software against any non-primary car, it seems to me that you shouldn't be able to apply a valuation for Tesla based against applying the above two ideas at the same time, that's all...

I agree with you that there will be enhanced returns from software upgrades. It's just the per-car exponential benefits that often make me wince a little...

Anyway, on top of all the above is the fact that the Apple hardware model, as with the majority of tech-based hardware nowadays, is based on the fact that older models won't qualify for many of the most sought-after and useful software upgrades, as that's a primary reason for consumer upgrades to be driven into these business model in the first place...

Like I said, it sometimes feels like you want it both ways in these areas, and whilst it's likely to be a mix that eventually benefits the business, we really shouldn't try to count a benefit twice when they are actually opposing forces that can't both happen...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[odysseus2000]

For much of this thread, you're pushing the idea that Tesla are moving into the Apple space, with loving consumers fawning over the top motor-tech, and upgrading often to keep up with the latest innovations.

Now you're telling us that owners can hold on to older models because their going to get the software upgrades as an automatic flow-down...

We seem to be a cross purposes here.

I am saying that when someone buys a NEW model car they are offered upgrades and that for many of Tesla's customers that upgrade costs Tesla essentially nothing as it comes free on the top of the range models and has to be developed for that model, so the cost to put this on a lower spec car is minimal.

The repeat purchase model comes from the way many cars are now leased and not sold. With the lease model, the car is automatically going to be replaced in 3 years or what ever the lease term is. This is also how Apple has gone with some of their contracts, automatic upgrade after 1 year.

Meanwhile for folk who buy a Tesla outright there is the option to keep driving it for a long time (also this applies with Apple iPhone, I kept my 4S until it failed earlier this year, then I bought a second hand 7-plus and for what I want its ideal.) But many people look down and sneer at my 7-plus, they want to have all the additional capability of the 11, things that don't interest me. As is I generally do far better stuff with my 7 plus than they do with their 11, but that's not how they see things. Shortly they will want the 12 with 5g and maybe in several years I will buy a second hand iPhone 12.

In many respects I am a bad customer for Apple, but they sell me iCloud and I use an iPad and at some point will likely satisfy my lust for a newer iPad with a pencil, but as is I use my 2013 iPad for youtube watching. I also have a MacBook that I shamefully bought new and a Mac Mini that I bought second hand. Prior to this I experimented with a second hand PC that I inherited both with windows 10 and Unix. The experience was so bad that I bought the Mac Mini. Sure Apple got nothing off me for the Mac Mini, but the seller had my money and could buy something else with it that may benefit Apple and I am likely there to repeat that type of transaction with other Apple stuff like e.g. a watch. Giving Apple nothing but putting money into someone else's pocket to buy potentially other Apple stuff.

I do not see the Tesla situation being different. I loathe depreciation so I rarely buy new stuff. If I decided I had to have a Tesla I would likely buy a second hand one, but that helps Tesla indirectly as in the Apple case.

The profit chain for Tesla and Apple is a big one and that is why imho they are given such good multiples, although Apple is not that expensive given its earnings stream.

Perhaps I still have it wrong, please correct if so.

Regards,