The Lemon Fool

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 7:48 am**

Global xEV Battery Market Doubles In July 2021

Global Passenger xEV Battery Shipment - July 2021

CATL - 6.1 GWh (up 236%) with 29.3% share
LG Chem's LG Energy Solution - 5.1 GWh (up 81%) with 24.5% share
Panasonic - 2.5 GWh (up 47%) with 11.9% share
BYD - 2.0 GWh (up 331%) with 9.6% share
SK Innovation - 1.2 GWh (up 81%) with 5.8% share
Samsung SDI - 1.0 GWh (up 14%) with 4.7% share
CALB - 0.7 GWh (up 357%) with 3.6% share
Guoxuan - 0.4 GWh (up 76%) with 1.9% share
Envision AESC - 0.3 GWh (down 7%) with 1.3% share
PEVE - 0.2 GWh (up 18%) with 1.1% share
other - 1.3 GWh (up 128%) with 6.4% share
Total - 20.7 GWh (up 113%)

...

Global xEV Battery Shipment - July 2021

If we include the commercial vehicles, like buses and trucks, the total battery capacity deployed is even higher - 22.6 GWh (up 101%) in July. Passenger cars stand for close to 92% of all xEV batteries.

CATL - 7.4 GWh (up 169%) with 32.6% share
LG Chem's LG Energy Solution - 5.1 GWh (up 81%) with 22.5% share
Panasonic - 2.5 GWh (up 47%) with 10.9% share
BYD - 2.1 GWh (up 218%) with 9.3% share
SK Innovation - 1.3 GWh (up 91%) with 5.9% share
Samsung SDI - 1.0 GWh (up 12%) with 4.4% share
CALB - 0.7 GWh (up 355%) with 3.3% share
Guoxuan - 0.5 GWh (up 30%) with 2.1% share
Envision AESC - 0.3 GWh (down 7%) with 1.2% share
PEVE - 0.2 GWh (up 18%) with 1.0% share
other - 1.5 GWh (up 103%) with 6.8% share
Total - 22.6 GWh (up 101%)

Los of batteries, and VW's fledgling battery interests holding the equivalent of a 0.5% market share through their 26% stake in Guoxuan.

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 8:37 am**

odysseus2000 wrote:
Whether robots will ever reach the standard of say a focused formula 1 driver we do not know,

Regards,

I would say that a robot driven F! car on a race track would be a far easier proposition than FSD in normal traffic.

John

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 8:40 am**

if you compare the global battery figures in the previous post by BobbyD, to what Tesla's battery factory at giga Berlin is supposed to produce:

https://electrek.co/2020/11/24/tesla-fi ... o-250-gwh/

one finds that the predicted 250 GWh output is huge compared to the output of the specialist battery makers.

There are of course arguments of birds in the hand (existing production) to birds n the Tree (Tesla potential output), but the potential numbers from Giga Berlin of 250 GWh dwarf the 43.3 GWh of the sum of the Ev battery market including commercial vehicles.

Regards,

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 9:18 am**

Why You Should Want Driverless Cars On Roads Now: https://youtu.be/yjztvddhZmI

Sponsored by Waymo, but Veritasium is a high quality channel.

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 9:51 am**

odysseus2000 wrote:if you compare the global battery figures in the previous post by BobbyD, to what Tesla's battery factory at giga Berlin is supposed to produce:

https://electrek.co/2020/11/24/tesla-fi ... o-250-gwh/

one finds that the predicted 250 GWh output is huge compared to the output of the specialist battery makers.

There are of course arguments of birds in the hand (existing production) to birds n the Tree (Tesla potential output), but the potential numbers from Giga Berlin of 250 GWh dwarf the 43.3 GWh of the sum of the Ev battery market including commercial vehicles.

Regards,

1. Tesla is always strong in the future on paper, it just doesn't deliver. Musk was talking about having Panasonic produce 150GWh at the gigafactory in 2016. What's the peak to date?

2. If you use Tesla's paper numbers at a site they still don't have final planning assent for at an unknown point in the future you have to use everybody else's future numbers as well, at which point it isn't nearly so big. Just for starters look at the rate of increase in some of the numbers in that post, and you'd have to count VW's 240GWh and other manufacturers declared builds too. It's hardly surprising that battery production for a point further along the BEV uptake curve is scheduled to be a lot higher than now. Comparing Tesla's vaguely possible production for a 15 million a year BEV world against actual numbers for a 1.5 million BEV a year world is more than bending the figures a little...

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 9:55 am**

Didn't realise I'd dropped the link for the battery figures: https://insideevs.com/news/532437/globa ... -july2021/

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 12:45 pm**

BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends
Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

https://www.ft.com/content/f55a1d96-114 ... 0fbaf57de6

This article is available from the FT without subscription.

It suggests that the shortage of semiconductors is helping luxury brands to increase profitability.

"The pandemic has really opened everyone’s eyes — that a different paradigm is possible,” said Arndt Ellinghorst, an analyst at Bernstein. “Everyone loves it, including dealers.”

Discounts typically offered to customers at dealerships — usually around 15 per cent in mature markets — have been slashed, with some models being sold above sticker price.

The increased pricing power has already fed through to the bottom lines for BMW and Daimler. Mercedes achieved a 12.2 per cent return on sales in the last reported quarter, up from 8.4 per cent in the same period in 2018 — the last measure not affected by the pandemic or diesel emissions litigation costs. BMW’s margin reached almost 16 per cent, up from 8.6 per cent."

This year has certainly been a profitable one for most UK car dealers (and the article suggests for US dealers) as prices of second hand ICE cars have rocketed up even for more expensive models.

regards

Howard

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 1:29 pm**

Howard wrote:BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends
Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

https://www.ft.com/content/f55a1d96-114 ... 0fbaf57de6

BMW have only just twigged the model behind producing a limited number of more expensive cars? That's what they already do! I have previously wondered what will happen to the smaller cars from companies like Merc once they have electrified their fleets and no longer need to reduce their fleet emissions though.

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 1:34 pm**

odysseus2000 wrote:
Whether robots will ever reach the standard of say a focused formula 1 driver we do not know,

Regards,

as in crash a lot?

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 1:38 pm**

Howard
BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends
Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

https://www.ft.com/content/f55a1d96-114 ... 0fbaf57de6

This article is available from the FT without subscription.

Ha Ha! Do it boys and girls, ratchet up prices for obsolete machines and make it even easier for BEV to steal your market.

How many times have I seen legacy management do this? More than I can recall. In the by and by even in the old days someone would end up producing a lemon and have to cut prices to flog it and then the whole inflated price structure comes tumbling down.

Regards,

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 1:52 pm**

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:if you compare the global battery figures in the previous post by BobbyD, to what Tesla's battery factory at giga Berlin is supposed to produce:

https://electrek.co/2020/11/24/tesla-fi ... o-250-gwh/

one finds that the predicted 250 GWh output is huge compared to the output of the specialist battery makers.

There are of course arguments of birds in the hand (existing production) to birds n the Tree (Tesla potential output), but the potential numbers from Giga Berlin of 250 GWh dwarf the 43.3 GWh of the sum of the Ev battery market including commercial vehicles.

Regards,

1. Tesla is always strong in the future on paper, it just doesn't deliver. Musk was talking about having Panasonic produce 150GWh at the gigafactory in 2016. What's the peak to date?

2. If you use Tesla's paper numbers at a site they still don't have final planning assent for at an unknown point in the future you have to use everybody else's future numbers as well, at which point it isn't nearly so big. Just for starters look at the rate of increase in some of the numbers in that post, and you'd have to count VW's 240GWh and other manufacturers declared builds too. It's hardly surprising that battery production for a point further along the BEV uptake curve is scheduled to be a lot higher than now. Comparing Tesla's vaguely possible production for a 15 million a year BEV world against actual numbers for a 1.5 million BEV a year world is more than bending the figures a little...

I did make the point that I was comparing what is being produced to forward projections. As I understand it,VW's 240 GWh is not predicted for several years whereas the Berlin site is projected to produce in the near term. Yes, the Tesla factory may not produce on time but we won't know until later which is another reason I was cautious.

Regards,

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 2:59 pm**

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends
Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

https://www.ft.com/content/f55a1d96-114 ... 0fbaf57de6

This article is available from the FT without subscription.

Ha Ha! Do it boys and girls, ratchet up prices for obsolete machines and make it even easier for BEV to steal your market.

How many times have I seen legacy management do this? More than I can recall. In the by and by even in the old days someone would end up producing a lemon and have to cut prices to flog it and then the whole inflated price structure comes tumbling down.

Regards,

You've seen it so many times over the years, Ody. And so far these companies continue to flourish and to maintain their profitability. Like VW they are profitably managing the transition between ICE and BEV. One wonders if Mercedes/Daimler will beat Tesla in launching electric trucks for example.

regards

Howard

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 3:16 pm**

Howard wrote:You've seen it so many times over the years, Ody. And so far these companies continue to flourish and to maintain their profitability. Like VW they are profitably managing the transition between ICE and BEV. One wonders if Mercedes/Daimler will beat Tesla in launching electric trucks for example.

regards

Howard

I must admit as an Audi shareholder I'm not devastated by the news, and am utterly perplexed that these companies would decide to publically announce their plans to push up prices by strangling their own supply.

VW's European BEV overflow has given them 7.8% of the US BEV market Jan-July. - https://insideevs.com/news/532721/us-be ... july-2021/

...and they actually have planning permission for their local BEV plant!

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 4:56 pm**

Howard
You've seen it so many times over the years, Ody. And so far these companies continue to flourish and to maintain their profitability. Like VW they are profitably managing the transition between ICE and BEV. One wonders if Mercedes/Daimler will beat Tesla in launching electric trucks for example.

regards

Howard

Yes, this is exactly what I expect. These business will continue to do well, the board will stay "Steady as she goes" and then they will run into the underwater rocks as Tesla and the rest of the BEV makers take share and some of the super confident ones, especially BMW, go under or are rescued by the politicians.

It is an exact replay of how the UK motor industry was slaughtered. Agile aggressive competitors, slow lazy boards telling lies to themselves which after enough repetition they believed, but where are they now?

Regards,

Posted: **September 13th, 2021, 11:16 pm**

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
You've seen it so many times over the years, Ody. And so far these companies continue to flourish and to maintain their profitability. Like VW they are profitably managing the transition between ICE and BEV. One wonders if Mercedes/Daimler will beat Tesla in launching electric trucks for example.

regards

Howard

Yes, this is exactly what I expect. These business will continue to do well, the board will stay "Steady as she goes" and then they will run into the underwater rocks as Tesla and the rest of the BEV makers take share and some of the super confident ones, especially BMW, go under or are rescued by the politicians.

It is an exact replay of how the UK motor industry was slaughtered. Agile aggressive competitors, slow lazy boards telling lies to themselves which after enough repetition they believed, but where are they now?

Regards,

I thought you'd rubbished the other BEV makers Ody?

Or do you now suggest that VW, KIA, Mercedes, Ford, etc are all on the right track growing their BEV shares? Maybe the Chinese Auto manufacturers will take major BEV market shares as well?

I don't think there are many lazy boards of car manufacturers telling lies to themselves about the potential for electric cars. Wait a minute! Maybe there is one board deluding themselves that there are a million Robotaxis on the streets?

Most auto boards are concentrating hard on making profits in a difficult situation. And attempting to complete new BEV and battery plants on schedule.

regards

Howard

Posted: **September 14th, 2021, 10:03 am**

Or do you now suggest that VW, KIA, Mercedes, Ford, etc are all on the right track growing their BEV shares? Maybe the Chinese Auto manufacturers will take major BEV market shares as well?

I don't think there are many lazy boards of car manufacturers telling lies to themselves about the potential for electric cars. Wait a minute! Maybe there is one board deluding themselves that there are a million Robotaxis on the streets?

Most auto boards are concentrating hard on making profits in a difficult situation. And attempting to complete new BEV and battery plants on schedule.

regards

Howard

IMHO most legacy car makers are doing most things wrong. All of them are trying to squeeze as much money out of existing ICE production as possible and are not investing sufficiently in BEV. It is all so reminiscent of how the UK car industry collapsed having rubbished Japanese cars only to have punters discover that UK cars were greatly inferior to Japanese, this time even the Japanese are being complacent as Chinese BEV autos rise rapidly.

Regards,

Posted: **September 14th, 2021, 10:43 am**

odysseus2000 wrote:
Or do you now suggest that VW, KIA, Mercedes, Ford, etc are all on the right track growing their BEV shares? Maybe the Chinese Auto manufacturers will take major BEV market shares as well?

I don't think there are many lazy boards of car manufacturers telling lies to themselves about the potential for electric cars. Wait a minute! Maybe there is one board deluding themselves that there are a million Robotaxis on the streets?

Most auto boards are concentrating hard on making profits in a difficult situation. And attempting to complete new BEV and battery plants on schedule.

regards

Howard

IMHO most legacy car makers are doing most things wrong. All of them are trying to squeeze as much money out of existing ICE production as possible and are not investing sufficiently in BEV. It is all so reminiscent of how the UK car industry collapsed having rubbished Japanese cars only to have punters discover that UK cars were greatly inferior to Japanese, this time even the Japanese are being complacent as Chinese BEV autos rise rapidly.

Regards,

It's fun to debate automotive investment issues with someone who is living in the past and harks back to the good old days of British Leyland. Perhaps someone who hasn't driven in a city for many years and who finds it difficult to envisage everyday driving situations faced by the average motorist driving a relatively new car?

Tesla and its competitors are dealing with the issues of today's motorist. The British car industry of the last century is an irrelevancy in today's fast moving world.

regards

Howard

Posted: **September 14th, 2021, 11:05 am**

odysseus2000 wrote:IMHO most legacy car makers are doing most things wrong. All of them are trying to squeeze as much money out of existing ICE production as possible and are not investing sufficiently in BEV. It is all so reminiscent of how the UK car industry collapsed having rubbished Japanese cars only to have punters discover that UK cars were greatly inferior to Japanese, this time even the Japanese are being complacent as Chinese BEV autos rise rapidly.

Has it escaped your notice that BEVs are not exactly the flavour of the month among the car buying public?

They are reacting to market demand. Tesla have only one string to their bow, so do not have the problem.

TJH

Posted: **September 14th, 2021, 11:33 am**

tjh290633 wrote:Has it escaped your notice that BEVs are not exactly the flavour of the month among the car buying public?

10.9% of UK sales in August, up form 6.4% in August last year. Major issue, supply...

Petrol and diesel combined 50.8% in August, down from 73% in August '20...

Everything else hybrid, aka gateway battery.

- https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploa ... D-cars.png

...and Germans bought four times as many BEV's as Brits although they are no Norway themselves.

- https://cleantechnica.com/2021/09/04/ge ... e-to-come/

Posted: **September 14th, 2021, 11:43 am**

tjh290633 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:IMHO most legacy car makers are doing most things wrong. All of them are trying to squeeze as much money out of existing ICE production as possible and are not investing sufficiently in BEV. It is all so reminiscent of how the UK car industry collapsed having rubbished Japanese cars only to have punters discover that UK cars were greatly inferior to Japanese, this time even the Japanese are being complacent as Chinese BEV autos rise rapidly.

Has it escaped your notice that BEVs are not exactly the flavour of the month among the car buying public?

They are reacting to market demand. Tesla have only one string to their bow, so do not have the problem.

TJH

Since most folk have no clue about cars and even less about BEV it does not surprise me that many are still buying ICE. However, that is changing rapidly as shown in the rate of change of BEV sales which is wildly positive whilst legacy auto is assuming there will be a smooth and gentle decline in ICE sales and that they can appear green by offering plug in hybrids. Sooner or later folk will get switched on to BEV and will not want obsolete ICE or ridiculous hybrids and the folk who have BEV to sell will do well whilst the folk who haven't will have very unhappy boards and very upset shareholders.

Regards,

The Lemon Fool

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