odysseus2000 wrote:But didn't a waymo car kill a cyclist with a safety driver on board?
No.
I believe you're probably mistaking the Uber incident. It definitely wasn't Waymo.
All along Waymo have taken a very safety first view of developing self driving technology, and I'm not aware of any serious accident caused by one of their vehicles yet, and they seem to be very open with the regulators and the public detailing all incidents. And most incidents that have occurred with Waymo vehicles have been the fault of other parties and Waymo have been open about all the details in all cases.
And bear in mind, their vehicles are operating without any safety driver at all in some (geofenced) areas!
I really can't stress how significantly different and safety conscious Waymo are compared to Tesla and Uber in my view (In my view, it's no bad thing that Uber have given up on their FSD efforts.. they've apparently sold it to Aurora AI, who are likely to handle it better... one of the guys in Aurora AI moved there from the google / waymo self driving car project and he was one of the ones really promoting the waymo safety first approach.)
I know Tesla owners get a little sarcastic about Waymo being geofenced, but let's get real... Waymo might be limited to a geofenced area for self driving without a safety driver, but that's still more than Tesla, whose vehicles can't operate anywhere without a safety driver anywhere yet! Let alone everywhere!
Let's just repeat that because some Tesla fans don't seem to recognise this ... Tesla can't operate ANYwhere without a safety driver. But some Tesla fans seem to think they can operate EVERYwhere. Not without a safety driver they can't! Waymo's geofenced self driving without safety driver, is more that Tesla can do!
And watching even more Tesla FSD beta owner videos, Tesla still have a long way to go. And to be honest it feels (not unexpectedly to me as you might already be well aware from my previous posts) that the pace of Tesla progress is slowing down.
The videos still talk of 'disengagements per journey'... and a video I watched last night of someone testing their Tesla specifically for their commute - albeit on unbelievably quiet roads for a commute! - the disengagements per journey doesn't even seem to have particularly come down with recent versions... in fact the owner in the video said it's now getting somethings wrong that it didn't before.
In fact he said that a (difficult for humans) corner he had to take over on in the video, the Tesla had always managed to take well on all his previous journeys.
But there-in lies a big problem with Tesla and why I believe they still have a very long way to way ... specifically that it still feels very 'fragile'.
By fragile, I mean that I don't get the feeling that it has a settled, stable model or interpretation of the world around it and the task in hand.
Just small differences, imperceptible to humans seem to make a difference of whether the Tesla handles a situation well, or whether an intervention is needed.
Sometimes the differences are leading the Tesla owner to wonder just what on earth is going on. I recall one video I watched, and the Tesla was at a totally unobstructed junction, totally clear views, no obstructions, and the driver had to intervene. The driver was puzzled because he said the car had handled that junction fine previously, and couldn't see why it should now have any issue. In this case it wasn't even a tricky junction for humans - probably one of the easiest around.
It always feels like Tesla FSD is on a knife edge... and that, at least in some situations, is echoed by the Tesla owners themselves... the video I watched last night the narrator said that he always feels nervous when the car is going to cut across fast traffic.
And I don't blame them! At other points in the video, and other videos that I've seen, it seems that the latest FSD version has become a bit more assertive, and has a number of times pulled out when joining a road, right in front of vehicles already on the road, forcing those vehicles to have to brake.
Contrast with the Waymo, where people who have driven in the Waymos quickly feel at ease and reassured. They don't feel out of control even though there's no-one in the driving seat. They don't feel concerned as to 'will it, or won't it' each time it does something.
Which is quite a feat that really can't be overstated, and something that Tesla seems to be quite a way from achieving yet.
Yep, my view is still that Tesla have quite a way to go yet before FSD can really be released (though whether Musk will feel the pressure and release before it's really ready... I must admit, I could easily see that happening).
But anyway, Tesla aren't the only ones around. Waymo already have FSD working without safety drivers.
And the unknown (at least to me), there are plenty of other companies developing full self driving as well, but a bit more secretively in terms of what they are letting known.
A few of the Tesla videos the drivers have commented that they've got other companies self driving cars in front of them at times, and not just Waymo. Though I forget the names of the others they've mentioned.
I'll admit, I would be surprised if some of these others suddenly sprang an announcement that they had finished, and their FSD is now suddenly available for release, because you'd expect that anyone thinking they are getting near to releasing a self driving car, must surely need to test them on actual real roads extensively before any release, and that would be hard to do at the scale required, in secret.
But it could happen in theory.
Though my money would still be on Waymo as getting there properly first... I mean with a serious product that works and can be trusted.
Though like I say, I wouldn't be surprised if Musk's ego pushes him to release Tesla FSD before it's really ready if he gets the whiff that Waymo might be about to beat him to it.
Let's not forget, most of the big car manufacturers also seem to have self driving efforts, albeit, they are being a bit more secretive about their technology and their progress. But they do have the funds to do proper R&D and they realise self driving is the future. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see some self driving surprises from some of them in the near future.
