Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

[GrahamPlatt]

Wired article on the superiority of China’s BEV endeavours

https://www.wired.com/story/how-chinas- ... the-wheel/

[88V8]

Wired article on the superiority of China’s BEV endeavours

China has been planning the transition to electric power in transportation for decades, with state backing championed by Wan Gang, a former minister of science and technology.
Wan—a Germany-based fuel-cell engineer at Volkswagen-Audi earlier in his career—convinced leaders more than 20 years ago to bet on what became NEVs, selling this leapfrogging of overseas carmakers as a way to boost economic growth, tackle China’s air pollution, and reduce its dependence on oil imports.
“The primary motivation for China to push for EVs was energy security,” says Russo. “Second was industrial competitiveness, and a far distant third was sustainability.”
Wan’s strategy was to use government sweeteners to first attract makers, and then consumers kick-started China’s dominance in EVs. Makers had to be supported, says Palmer, because without subsidies such a novel, innovative sector could not be profitable for at least several years.
“Chinese companies received instructions from central government that they had to move in the direction of EVs. Essentially, the government said it would be stimulating the sale of those vehicles. Initially, we didn’t have that benefit in the West,” he says.

“When it comes to these moments of change, there are advantages to having a one-party state,” Palmer adds wryly.

Yeah, in the UK govts talk about having an industrial strategy but for the most part that's all it is, talk.
And our ridiculous merry-go-round of cabinet reshuffles does nothing to help.

I have no love for EVs, but given the obese contraptions are coming, it's a pity we won't be making them.

V8

[PeterGray]

I have no love for EVs, but given the obese contraptions are coming, it's a pity we won't be making them.

V8

Car obesity is hardly an EV problem. Cars have been getting bigger and bigger for years. Round here, in a small old town in the SW with narrow streets the situation is absurd.

Time firmer action was taken to stop people driving absurd juggernauts for taking the kids to school in Chelsea. And perhaps an answer relevant to the issue of EV weight is to charge road tax by weight, regardless of fuel. The more damage you cause the more you pay. Perhaps some will move from the obese 4x4s to EVs that fit on our roads and weigh less?

[scotview]

I have no love for EVs, but given the obese contraptions are coming, it's a pity we won't be making them.

V8

That's why.

[88V8]

I have no love for EVs, but given the obese contraptions are coming, it's a pity we won't be making them.

Car obesity is hardly an EV problem. Cars have been getting bigger and bigger for years. Round here, in a small old town in the SW with narrow streets the situation is absurd.
Time firmer action was taken to stop people driving absurd juggernauts for taking the kids to school in Chelsea. And perhaps an answer relevant to the issue of EV weight is to charge road tax by weight, regardless of fuel. The more damage you cause the more you pay. Perhaps some will move from the obese 4x4s to EVs that fit on our roads and weigh less?

Agree.
And/or by dimension.
Still, it's a step in the right direction that EVs will pay any road tax at all.

I have no love for EVs, but given the obese contraptions are coming, it's a pity we won't be making them.

That's why.

Talbot made good cars, once. But my first company car was a Solara and I couldn't wait to be rid of it!

V8

[scrumpyjack]

I have no love for EVs, but given the obese contraptions are coming, it's a pity we won't be making them.

V8

Car obesity is hardly an EV problem. Cars have been getting bigger and bigger for years. Round here, in a small old town in the SW with narrow streets the situation is absurd.

Time firmer action was taken to stop people driving absurd juggernauts for taking the kids to school in Chelsea. And perhaps an answer relevant to the issue of EV weight is to charge road tax by weight, regardless of fuel. The more damage you cause the more you pay. Perhaps some will move from the obese 4x4s to EVs that fit on our roads and weigh less?

People have been getting bigger too!

Per the NHS, mean weight between 1993 and 2019 increased from 78.9kg to 85.4kg among men, and from 66.6kg to 72.1kg among women.


https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-informa ... ng%20women.

[kiloran]

I have no love for EVs, but given the obese contraptions are coming, it's a pity we won't be making them.

V8

That's why.

Ha! I drove under that bridge yesterday

--kiloran

[funduffer]

I have no love for EVs, but given the obese contraptions are coming, it's a pity we won't be making them.

V8

I have had an EV for 2 years and I am a massive fan. Every EV owner I have met says the same thing - they are much better than ICE cars and they would never go back.

It is inevitable we are heading towards EV's dominating the car market, and the UK can't just opt out - that would be a 'Trabant' strategy.

I am pessimistic about the UK and EV manufacture though. Post-Brexit Rules of Origin will price out UK EV's with Chinese batteries and we seem to have missed the boat on giga-factories (JLR's notwithstanding). Even Europe with many more such factories is struggling to compete with the Chinese.

I can see that we will be buying many Chinese EV's, which anyway are pretty good, because of the long term strategy China have followed. The current MG EV's get good reviews, and there are many new and cheaper models heading our way.

Like any new product, development will reduce or eliminate any short-comings such as weight, range and charging infrastructure. Mass production leads to competition, innovation and product refinement - it was ever thus. Everyone will be driving EV's in 10 years time and they will be just fine.

FD

[CliffEdge]

Wired article on the superiority of China’s BEV endeavours

China has been planning the transition to electric power in transportation for decades, with state backing championed by Wan Gang, a former minister of science and technology.
Wan—a Germany-based fuel-cell engineer at Volkswagen-Audi earlier in his career—convinced leaders more than 20 years ago to bet on what became NEVs, selling this leapfrogging of overseas carmakers as a way to boost economic growth, tackle China’s air pollution, and reduce its dependence on oil imports.
“The primary motivation for China to push for EVs was energy security,” says Russo. “Second was industrial competitiveness, and a far distant third was sustainability.”
Wan’s strategy was to use government sweeteners to first attract makers, and then consumers kick-started China’s dominance in EVs. Makers had to be supported, says Palmer, because without subsidies such a novel, innovative sector could not be profitable for at least several years.
“Chinese companies received instructions from central government that they had to move in the direction of EVs. Essentially, the government said it would be stimulating the sale of those vehicles. Initially, we didn’t have that benefit in the West,” he says.

“When it comes to these moments of change, there are advantages to having a one-party state,” Palmer adds wryly.

Yeah, in the UK govts talk about having an industrial strategy but for the most part that's all it is, talk.
And our ridiculous merry-go-round of cabinet reshuffles does nothing to help.

I have no love for EVs, but given the obese contraptions are coming, it's a pity we won't be making them.

V8

This was simply so that China could power its cars and lorries by coal fired electricity generation, and with a minimum of plastic. A very sensible policy that the English would have been able to adopt but for the Welsh miners.

Anyway I think people are sick of electric cars now. All those who I know who bought electric have gone back to proper petrol cars now.

I think petrol cars will be common for at least the next thirty years and that will see me out. After that I doubt if the proles will be able to afford their own cars anyway so the problem goes away.

It is reckoned that ninety percent of all car journeys on the motorways are work related to non-jobs. So unnecessary. Only a few journeys, e.g holidays or days out or visiting friends or relatives, serve any real purpose and can be considered necessary.

It will be interesting to see if AI increases the number of pointless non jobs or decreases it.

[88V8]

I have no love for EVs, but given the obese contraptions are coming, it's a pity we won't be making them.

I have had an EV for 2 years and I am a massive fan. Every EV owner I have met says the same thing - they are much better than ICE cars and they would never go back.

Collected one of our ICE cars - 31 yo - from the small local garage this morning post-titivation.
Hard to see EVs making 31 years, let alone the 49 and 60 years of our other two cars... anyway, the garage owner who has not embraced EVs, commented that there are far too many EVs for the small number of people trained to maintain them.

This is illustrated by our neighbours up the lane who have a little Peugeot EV, and every time it goes wrong - which to be fair is not that often - it has to be trailered to a specialist 70 miles away where it site for weeks 'awaiting parts' because the local main dealer cannot handle EVs.

EVs... one day, but I expect our ICEs to see me out.

V8

[PeterGray]

Of course ICE cars will be around for many years, decades. No one has suggested otherwise. Even if the deadline on new ICE cars is restored to 2030 that's still going to mean many of them still on the road for at least 2 decades, and many long after that.

There clearly are issues of charging points and service capability, but I'm sure those applied also when ICE cars were coming onto the roads, probably easier to find hay than petrol. But those things develop and improve, and will as the number of EVs on the roads continues to rise.

[odysseus2000]

Of course ICE cars will be around for many years, decades. No one has suggested otherwise. Even if the deadline on new ICE cars is restored to 2030 that's still going to mean many of them still on the road for at least 2 decades, and many long after that.

There clearly are issues of charging points and service capability, but I'm sure those applied also when ICE cars were coming onto the roads, probably easier to find hay than petrol. But those things develop and improve, and will as the number of EVs on the roads continues to rise.

The longevity of ICE depends on legislation.

As is, many cars with Mot showing operation to the design at the time of manufacture are penalized for entry into London. If such legislation moves outwards many ice cars will be too expensive to operate & this will lead to their rapid demise.

One school of thought is that efuels will save ice cars, but this seems wishful thinking given that efuels are expensive & still lead to pollution from emissions including brake pad wear.


However, I look at the situation it seems ice cars are doomed & the fact that Farage & a few other like minded folk are championing ice, gas & oil does nothing to make me think I am wrong, mostly the reverse.

Regards,

[funduffer]

This is illustrated by our neighbours up the lane who have a little Peugeot EV, and every time it goes wrong - which to be fair is not that often - it has to be trailered to a specialist 70 miles away where it site for weeks 'awaiting parts' because the local main dealer cannot handle EVs.

EVs... one day, but I expect our ICEs to see me out.

V8

Yes, but as the number of EV's on the road inexorably rises, then that local garage that can't handle EV's will go out of business, and one that can service EV's will take its place!

ICE's may well see you out, but EV's will dominate - perhaps more quickly than you expect.

As ody says, ICE's are doomed!

FD

[DrFfybes]

As ody says, ICE's are doomed!

FD

Oh, dunno about that.

A friend still takes his 120 year old Steam Car to Brighton every year.

[TUK020]

Finally taken the plunge and bought a battery electric car.
Sold the 20 year old diesel for scrap.
Bought a 5 yr old Nissan Leaf 110kW, 40kWh with 45k miles for £11k. This is a 2018 model - first year of the Gen 2 Leaf.
11 months MoT, 1 yr warranty, plus 3 years left on the manufacturers guarantee for the battery.
Battery report still showing >97.5% capacity.

Range:
Urban driving, mild weather gives me around 160 miles range fully charged.
Put the aircon on, and the range estimate drops to ~150 miles on fully charged.
According to the specs this drops to around 105 miles in cold weather motorway driving.

Charger:
Currently charging off the 3 pin 2.3kW charger.
Get my 7kW Type 2 charge point installed in a couple of days. (this will cost £1k installed, ordered from Octopus)

Fuel costs:
Switched to Octopus as energy supplier (no hassle), and got the Octopus Go tariff: 30p/kWh standard, and 9p/kWh at cheap rate (00.30-04.30am). The car has a location aware timer. At home, I program it to start charging at 00.30, and run to 07.30. This means that it will charge 70% of the battery at cheap rate, and then top up at higher rate. Assuming that the majority of the time I will not have depleted the battery more than 70%, and will be doing relatively local driving, then my fuel cost will be 83p (4 hrs x 2.3kW x 9p/kWh) to give 112 miles (70% x 160 range) = 1.35p/mile (mild weather, urban driving). Assuming reduced mileage/kWh for bad weather, and higher costs for external charging, and higher costs when I run the battery down below 70%, allow for some increase in teh cheap rate tariff - call it 2p/mile overall?

Other running costs:
Vehicle tax = 0
Nissan service plan for next 3 years = £17/month. This covers 1 service/year (annual or 18k miles), MoT (I think), Aircon regassing, and RAC Euro breakdown recovery to a Nissan main dealer. (Given range limitation, unlikely to take abroad). The service plan gives considerable peace of mind in two respects - it covers a lot, and it does so at a price that would indicate that Nissan believe in the reliability of their cars.
This doesn't cover tyres and consumables. I currently do about 6k miles a year, so guessing a set of tyres every other year plus wipers etc - guess overall maintenance and repair £500/yr
Insurance - no change from the ICE alternative.

Capital cost:
Should get 5 years motoring before it starts needing major expenditure, and even then it should have some resale. Call it £1k5 depreciation/yr?

Overall motoring costs of £2k5/year (depreciation, + fuel + service, maintenance,breakdown recovery) plus insurance on top? = £200/month plus insurance.

Driving impressions:
Very relaxing to drive, quiet, minimal fuss. Easy to drive in traffic as instant torque available for pulling out etc.

I had been intending to buy a bigger hybrid (Toyota Rav4), but the money being asked for a 5 yr old car seemed silly (>£25k). Didn't realise I could pick up a Nissan Leaf for this sort of money. Took it for a test drive and decided to take the plunge. We have several cars in the family. In the 2 weeks since I have had this, I needed to do a round trip of 100 miles one day, and swapped cars with my wife for that day. Think this works very well as a second car.

Other:
Experience so far of the local Nissan dealer has been very favourable.

Not tried yet - rapid charging at a external charging point.

Conclusion: So far, like it, and think it a success - nice to drive, think it will be very cost effective to run.

2 months on.
Car is working out very well for day to day driving. Like it - very easy and relaxing.
Home charger point + cheap rate charging easy to live with. Relaxing about level of charge/range 'in the tank' and only charging once or twice a week now.
Notice range is declining as weather gets worse - see the the demist in wet weather clobbers range (internal heating + aircon).
Still haven't had the need to exercise my "Electroverse" card to get an external rapid charge, but probably coming in the next 100 days with a longer trip planned.
So far so good. Noticing not spending £70 on a diesel tank refill every other week

[Watis]

2 months on.
Car is working out very well for day to day driving. Like it - very easy and relaxing.
Home charger point + cheap rate charging easy to live with. Relaxing about level of charge/range 'in the tank' and only charging once or twice a week now.
Notice range is declining as weather gets worse - see the the demist in wet weather clobbers range (internal heating + aircon).
Still haven't had the need to exercise my "Electroverse" card to get an external rapid charge, but probably coming in the next 100 days with a longer trip planned.
So far so good. Noticing not spending £70 on a diesel tank refill every other week

Just a thought...would it be advisable to do a test charge with your Electroverse card to make sure it works before relying on it for the first time, possibly in the middle of nowhere?

Watis

[daveh]

2 months on.
Car is working out very well for day to day driving. Like it - very easy and relaxing.
Home charger point + cheap rate charging easy to live with. Relaxing about level of charge/range 'in the tank' and only charging once or twice a week now.
Notice range is declining as weather gets worse - see the the demist in wet weather clobbers range (internal heating + aircon).
Still haven't had the need to exercise my "Electroverse" card to get an external rapid charge, but probably coming in the next 100 days with a longer trip planned.
So far so good. Noticing not spending £70 on a diesel tank refill every other week

A comment:

I have friends with 2 electric cars (Tesla and an E-Up) and before that they had plug in hybrids. They always warm up and dehumidify the car with it plugged in to their home charger just before they set off so that it doesn't take any energy from the battery to do that and that increased the range* - is that not possible on the Leaf? They can do it from an app on their phone so they don't even have to go to the car to do it.

* This was particularly important for the plug in as then they could get into town and back entirely on electricity.

[Adamski]

..So far so good. Noticing not spending £70 on a diesel tank refill every other week

But 8-15 years will need to find £12k on a new battery. With higher up front cost and replacement battery not clear yet if EVs any cheaper over lifetime.

They're proving popular as Fleet vehicles only because of tax benefits, govt bribes. Two thirds of ev sales are businesses which is why on new estates full of ev company cars. But private buyers aren't there which is why evs are hanging around showrooms unsold.

[scotview]

..So far so good. Noticing not spending £70 on a diesel tank refill every other week

But private buyers aren't there which is why evs are hanging around showrooms unsold.

Glad you are enjoying your EV TUK020. Just one query please, does your Air Con remove dampness inside the car/windscreen on rainy days ?

We have an ID3, nice car. At one point we had +£10K equity on it's resale price. It's currently -£2K underwater on resale equity. Our Dacia Duster has +£3K resale equity, its a very cheap ICE.

I think the true measure of EV success, for private purchases, is going to be their depreciation curve. Our ID3, although a very nice car, doesn't look too good in that respect.

[daveh]

But private buyers aren't there which is why evs are hanging around showrooms unsold.

Glad you are enjoying your EV TUK020. Just one query please, does your Air Con remove dampness inside the car/windscreen on rainy days ?

We have an ID3, nice car. At one point we had +£10K equity on it's resale price. It's currently -£2K underwater on resale equity. Our Dacia Duster has +£3K resale equity, its a very cheap ICE.

I think the true measure of EV success, for private purchases, is going to be their depreciation curve. Our ID3, although a very nice car, doesn't look too good in that respect.

From these last couple of comments it looks like my next car is going to be a 2nd hand, 1-3 year old EV if they are not holding their resale value. Looks liking buying a newish 2nd hand EV could be a very good deal.

I've always been a cash buyer for my cars so I don't find out how much my car is worth until I buy a new one. I used to buy 2nd hand and run until they 'died' and then part exchange for a new 2nd hand car. I used to get about £1000 for trade in (which is more than I'd get from the scrappy) and I'd always try and trade in when there was still 6 months or more MOT. I usually 5-6 years and 80-100k out of them before they died. Last 2 cars have been ex demo and my present Yeti I have had 6 years and 60k miles on it. I was surprised at the prices Yetis of that vintage were being advertised at (£10-15K) recently compared to what I paid new ( ex demo 140 miles on the clock, £16k plus a 3 year old fabia for a total price of £20k). The price of old 2nd hand ICEs seems to be holding up well.

Edit to add:
just looked at my spreadsheets and the last 2nd hand car I owned (diesel Fabia) did 84777 miles in 5 and a bit years (my other records are on paper so not so easy to look up) so I was doing a ludicrous annual mileage of 14-15K. Since lock down I'm down to ~6-7K mostly because I'm mostly commuting by e-bike.