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Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#414623

Postby odysseus2000 » May 24th, 2021, 1:59 pm

Graham Platt
I watched that video. Much impressed by the CEO. I did not get the impression they were constrained by scaling up; I understood they were about to build a JV factory with VW, and will be (not may be) mass producing in two years.


Yes, this is what he said, but meanwhile he was talking about working 24-7 testing prototypes and mentioned it was an Edison process where there is a huge amount of trial and error and then the possible stumbling on a solution. Every CEO has to be optimistic and positive, but there was a divergence in the interview between the rhetoric and what they were currently doing. If they have something that works and is cost comparable they should be focused on making it, but they don't seem to be.

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#414625

Postby odysseus2000 » May 24th, 2021, 2:04 pm

BobbyD
VW and QS have just signed an agreement to settle on a location for the JV's pilot line by the end of the year. Currently 'considering' Salzgitter where VW's battery lab and pilot line is, and where what was their JV with Northvolt, until they bought out NV's stake in March, is being built.

https://ir.quantumscape.com/news/news-d ... fault.aspx


Yes, but until the plant is built and working and making cost comparable cells it is all meaningless.

QS and VW make a lot out of the cells having good technical performance, but are shy about cost even though that is of primary importance. It was cost not quality that doomed BetaMax.

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#414627

Postby BobbyD » May 24th, 2021, 2:12 pm

BobbyD wrote:Everything Tesla make is moving closer to production, it just never actually seems to get there. Currentlly overdue: 4680, Model X refurb, Model S refurb, Model S Plaid, Semi, CT, Roadster, German factory.


Forgot FSD...

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#414629

Postby Howard » May 24th, 2021, 2:19 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Graham Platt
I watched that video. Much impressed by the CEO. I did not get the impression they were constrained by scaling up; I understood they were about to build a JV factory with VW, and will be (not may be) mass producing in two years.


Yes, this is what he said, but meanwhile he was talking about working 24-7 testing prototypes and mentioned it was an Edison process where there is a huge amount of trial and error and then the possible stumbling on a solution. Every CEO has to be optimistic and positive, but there was a divergence in the interview between the rhetoric and what they were currently doing. If they have something that works and is cost comparable they should be focused on making it, but they don't seem to be.

Regards,


Wonderful comment! Are you sure you aren't referring to Mr Musk? :lol:

regards

Howard

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#414635

Postby murraypaul » May 24th, 2021, 2:40 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:QS and VW make a lot out of the cells having good technical performance, but are shy about cost even though that is of primary importance. It was cost not quality that doomed BetaMax.


It is a poor analogy.
VHS vs BetaMax was going to have one winner, because there was a benefit in everyone having the same tape player, and being able to sell the same sort of tape.
If VW and Tesla use different sorts of batteries, does it matter as long as they can both be charged from the same sort of outlet?
If cars vs trains vs aircraft use different sorts of batteries, does it matter?
It may well end up that one technology is better for small batteries and another for large ones, for example.

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#414641

Postby odysseus2000 » May 24th, 2021, 2:52 pm

murraypaul wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:QS and VW make a lot out of the cells having good technical performance, but are shy about cost even though that is of primary importance. It was cost not quality that doomed BetaMax.


It is a poor analogy.
VHS vs BetaMax was going to have one winner, because there was a benefit in everyone having the same tape player, and being able to sell the same sort of tape.
If VW and Tesla use different sorts of batteries, does it matter as long as they can both be charged from the same sort of outlet?
If cars vs trains vs aircraft use different sorts of batteries, does it matter?
It may well end up that one technology is better for small batteries and another for large ones, for example.


This is all well and good and often cited by folk, but what matters is cost per unit of energy and manufacturability.

If e.g. Lithium 4680 has a much lower cost per watt and can be manufactured in very large numbers then all the competitors will go the way of BetaMax unless they are as cheap and can be made at the same scale.

As things are the market does not believe that e.g. Quantum Scape claims are credible as seen in the share price:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/139682 ... 20352?s=20

Of course the market can be wrong, but QS better start proving it or they will be another BetaMax.

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#424933

Postby Howard » July 5th, 2021, 12:04 pm

Update on experience with KIA BEV.

As a hatchback second car it is very good. With a range of around 300 miles it hasn’t needed to be charged anywhere except at home.

The media reported today that petrol is around £1.30 per litre. Driving 300 miles in our previous Golf (average consumption 43 mpg) would now cost around £41 for petrol.

The electricity cost of 300 miles driving, generally shorter journeys, is around £3.50, charged overnight a couple of times on the Octopus Go tariff at 5p per kWh. (Adding around 150 miles range each time charging between 12.30 -4.00 am).

It will take a significant mileage to recover the £740 cost of installing a 7 kW home charger (around 6,000 miles) but I have been pleasantly surprised at the low cost of running the car.

Of course, in time the costs of off-peak electricity relative to petrol may change but at the moment the direction of change is beneficial.

Whilst the car doesn’t have the mind-blowing acceleration of a Tesla; if required it accelerates amazingly fast to 70 mph and this is very useful if overtaking. It is also very stable under fast acceleration, maybe because of the heavy battery below the car floor.

Having driven the car over four months, I now don’t tend to change the regenerative braking settings during driving because the car behaves very similarly to our ICE car and "normal" braking is so effective at recharging the battery.

In cold weather, the interior heating works much faster than in the Golf and the infotainment/satnav system is superior. So far I’m pleased with the car and haven’t found any major drawbacks.

regards

Howard

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#424973

Postby redsturgeon » July 5th, 2021, 2:47 pm

Howard wrote:
It will take a significant mileage to recover the £740 cost of installing a 7 kW home charger (around 6,000 miles) but I have been pleasantly surprised at the low cost of running the car.

Howard



Ha ha that would take me less than 6 weeks to do at the moment!!

I was thinking of leasing a BEV for my trips but you try getting a price to do 50k miles per year.

On a separate note here is a review of the new Toyota Mirai by James May

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v99AthjW78U&t=6s

Perhaps hydrogen is the way forward

John

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#425064

Postby odysseus2000 » July 5th, 2021, 7:52 pm

On a separate note here is a review of the new Toyota Mirai by James May

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v99AthjW78U&t=6s

Perhaps hydrogen is the way forward

John


Interesting!

Kind of feel that if Toyota really want hydrogen to catch on then they will have to do a Tesla like supercharger build, and create some of their own hydrogen fueling stations rather than wanting the politicians to do it for them.

It is certainly interesting that the cost is coming down and that the fuel cell components can be made in a few seconds. It would be most interesting to know how low the cost can be brought down, the longevity of the fuel cells and how cleanly one can make the hydrogen fuel as well as the cost of the needed fueling network.

There is also the question of whether it is wise to put hydrogen into road cars when it could be used for aircraft fuels where the low weight of the fuel is a big positive over batteries.

Regards,

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#425104

Postby BobbyD » July 5th, 2021, 10:42 pm

More pure BEV sold in UK in June than pure Diesel.

Image

- https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#425995

Postby odysseus2000 » July 8th, 2021, 10:36 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
Howard wrote:
It will take a significant mileage to recover the £740 cost of installing a 7 kW home charger (around 6,000 miles) but I have been pleasantly surprised at the low cost of running the car.

Howard



Ha ha that would take me less than 6 weeks to do at the moment!!

I was thinking of leasing a BEV for my trips but you try getting a price to do 50k miles per year.

On a separate note here is a review of the new Toyota Mirai by James May

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v99AthjW78U&t=6s

Perhaps hydrogen is the way forward

John


Musk on why he does not feel hydrogen is the fuel of the future for cars:

https://youtu.be/RAUnmDGNvF8

Regards,

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#426195

Postby odysseus2000 » July 9th, 2021, 2:37 pm

I get it now. I always knew Teslas were extraordinary. I like cars. I like learning about cars. I used to hang out with my mechanic in college, to learn more about how my VW Golf worked. But I don’t like emissions.

And nothing prepared me for the weird euphoria I feel about our Model 3. This is the best kind of car, because it’s stupidly fun, it’s gorgeous, and it’s fast. I drive it with a stupid grin on my face. I truly get the fanaticism now. And we don’t have to go to the gas station anymore.


https://electrek.co/2021/07/05/i-just-b ... -happened/

Regards,

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#426199

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 9th, 2021, 2:57 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Every new home, office and street light to have charging point for electric cars, Chris Grayling says

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -electric/

RC


Yes the sort of stuff that happens in revolutions.

Regards,

Apologies for replying to a rather old post. But having charging points installed nationally in a shortish time frame could well be achievable, if planned and managed properly.

Where I live, (and the surrounding Fens) BT OpenReach installed fibre to everybody's house (where the house was out of a particular range - possibly a mile from the cabinet) about 2-3 years ago. They had to dig up miles of road and bury/hang similar amounts of cable. It would have been unthinkable 10 years back. (BTW I believe that the investment BT OR made gave them the exclusive rights to own our BB contract for a couple of years post install).

Matt

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#448470

Postby TUK020 » October 7th, 2021, 9:57 am

Interesting article in FT today on BYD and their play on LiFP batteries, and emergence as a EV supplier on the back of this

"Battery technology gives China an opening in electric vehicles"

https://www.ft.com/content/fcbc860b-51c ... 97ce9adc57

Mentions Buffet's stake in BYD

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#448573

Postby BobbyD » October 7th, 2021, 4:05 pm




It’s easier for Chinese EVs to be successful than Chinese internal combustion cars because European and American automakers have a long history in making engines, it’s hard for Chinese automakers to catch up overnight,” says Ji Shi, an analyst at Haitong International Securities in Hong Kong. “But EVs are different because they are simpler in terms of their structure and Chinese automakers have better supply chains in terms of batteries.”


Agree with the premise but not the conclusion.

It's obviously hard for your 1st, 2nd and 3rg gen engines to compete with somebody else's 35th, 36th and 37th gen engines. However I would suggest it is easier to compete with electric cars not because the tech is simpler but because despite both batteries and motors having been around forever in technological terms, and both having been in cars 130 years ago in terms of modern electro-automotive everybody is still in their early generations and nobody has opened up a significant gap yet. The race is easier because everybody is still on or about the start line.

In a straight comparison it is notable that Northvolt circumvented this very problem in reverse when designing their first batteries, and went to Japan to hire their design team.

LFP is an interesting case. Initially overlooked in favour of flashier, more energy dense chemistries for cars in the sophisticated west it was left to 'golf buggies' in the orient. Now it is used by Tesla the sniffiest of battery snobs and will power the 'Entry' tier of VW's unified Cell programme as well as BYD's blade as used by GM.

But far from being because batteries are 'simple' this turn around is because in the real world they are actually quite hard. Note the non-existence of the mythical Tesla 4680 for example, whose absence has so far bought the Roadster, the S Plaid Plus, the Semi and the CT to a grinding halt. Or consider that the entire reason for the dominance of Li-ion batteries now is because nobody has been able to successfully produce commercially viable Lithium batteries which aren't prone to shorting and catching fire in the mere 5 decades since they were developed.

Meanwhile another (predominantly) Chinese company Gotion (26% owned by VW) has pushed LFP density to 210 Wh/kg, and is aiming for 260 Wh/kg next year. Refinement being easier than bleeding edge development.

If Quantumscape (20% VW) can get their separator to production then LFP will get another substantial boost as it is cathode agnostic and would allow pure Lithium anodes to be used in LFP as well as more exotic chemistries, radically increasing energy density again. It's obviously a tech with a future, but that future is built on the real world difficulties inherent in other batteries.

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#448721

Postby odysseus2000 » October 8th, 2021, 12:08 pm

BobbyD
But far from being because batteries are 'simple' this turn around is because in the real world they are actually quite hard.


As far as I understand the business of batteries, the basic chemistry is relatively easy, but scaling that chemistry into a commercial product is troubled by very many aspects of the scaling process which is a well known phenomenon in complex assemblies where one needs speed and low cost feed stocks.

QS have argued for a long time that as they complete their basic research the transition to large scale will be easy and they have been well funded to enable this and yet it isn't currently making solid state batteries at a commercial level.

Tesla's 4680 is another example where unforeseen problems that were not evident in the 18650 or 2170 designs are making large scale production with high yields difficult. The more energy one stores in a battery the more complicated and efficient has to be the fusing systems and the heat extraction process to cope with "heater" cells. GM's experience and earlier Hyundai troubles with the batteries leading to unpredictable fires is a clear example of how going with a process or technology before it is ready leads to large commercial pain.

Regards,

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#483772

Postby TUK020 » March 2nd, 2022, 11:44 am

BobbyD wrote:



It’s easier for Chinese EVs to be successful than Chinese internal combustion cars because European and American automakers have a long history in making engines, it’s hard for Chinese automakers to catch up overnight,” says Ji Shi, an analyst at Haitong International Securities in Hong Kong. “But EVs are different because they are simpler in terms of their structure and Chinese automakers have better supply chains in terms of batteries.”


Agree with the premise but not the conclusion.

It's obviously hard for your 1st, 2nd and 3rg gen engines to compete with somebody else's 35th, 36th and 37th gen engines. However I would suggest it is easier to compete with electric cars not because the tech is simpler but because despite both batteries and motors having been around forever in technological terms, and both having been in cars 130 years ago in terms of modern electro-automotive everybody is still in their early generations and nobody has opened up a significant gap yet. The race is easier because everybody is still on or about the start line.

In a straight comparison it is notable that Northvolt circumvented this very problem in reverse when designing their first batteries, and went to Japan to hire their design team.

LFP is an interesting case. Initially overlooked in favour of flashier, more energy dense chemistries for cars in the sophisticated west it was left to 'golf buggies' in the orient. Now it is used by Tesla the sniffiest of battery snobs and will power the 'Entry' tier of VW's unified Cell programme as well as BYD's blade as used by GM.

But far from being because batteries are 'simple' this turn around is because in the real world they are actually quite hard. Note the non-existence of the mythical Tesla 4680 for example, whose absence has so far bought the Roadster, the S Plaid Plus, the Semi and the CT to a grinding halt. Or consider that the entire reason for the dominance of Li-ion batteries now is because nobody has been able to successfully produce commercially viable Lithium batteries which aren't prone to shorting and catching fire in the mere 5 decades since they were developed.

Meanwhile another (predominantly) Chinese company Gotion (26% owned by VW) has pushed LFP density to 210 Wh/kg, and is aiming for 260 Wh/kg next year. Refinement being easier than bleeding edge development.

If Quantumscape (20% VW) can get their separator to production then LFP will get another substantial boost as it is cathode agnostic and would allow pure Lithium anodes to be used in LFP as well as more exotic chemistries, radically increasing energy density again. It's obviously a tech with a future, but that future is built on the real world difficulties inherent in other batteries.

BobbyD,
would be interested in an update.
Has this picture changed any?
tuk020

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#483780

Postby PeterGray » March 2nd, 2022, 12:02 pm

BobbyD wrote:



It’s easier for Chinese EVs to be successful than Chinese internal combustion cars because European and American automakers have a long history in making engines, it’s hard for Chinese automakers to catch up overnight,” says Ji Shi, an analyst at Haitong International Securities in Hong Kong. “But EVs are different because they are simpler in terms of their structure and Chinese automakers have better supply chains in terms of batteries.”


Agree with the premise but not the conclusion.

It's obviously hard for your 1st, 2nd and 3rg gen engines to compete with somebody else's 35th, 36th and 37th gen engines. However I would suggest it is easier to compete with electric cars not because the tech is simpler but because despite both batteries and motors having been around forever in technological terms, and both having been in cars 130 years ago in terms of modern electro-automotive everybody is still in their early generations and nobody has opened up a significant gap yet. The race is easier because everybody is still on or about the start line.
.....


But that's only considering the drive chain.

There's more to a good car than that - bodies that work, are cost effective to repair, suspensions sytems that work and last, etc, etc. People like VW and Toyota have decades of experience at that. And they make good cars as a result. That's not that easy to catchup with overnight.

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#483820

Postby odysseus2000 » March 2nd, 2022, 2:40 pm

VW are having supply chain issues causing them to idle production:

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia ... F5J6bNcg9G

Regards,

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#483823

Postby BobbyD » March 2nd, 2022, 2:56 pm

TUK020 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:



It’s easier for Chinese EVs to be successful than Chinese internal combustion cars because European and American automakers have a long history in making engines, it’s hard for Chinese automakers to catch up overnight,” says Ji Shi, an analyst at Haitong International Securities in Hong Kong. “But EVs are different because they are simpler in terms of their structure and Chinese automakers have better supply chains in terms of batteries.”


Agree with the premise but not the conclusion.

It's obviously hard for your 1st, 2nd and 3rg gen engines to compete with somebody else's 35th, 36th and 37th gen engines. However I would suggest it is easier to compete with electric cars not because the tech is simpler but because despite both batteries and motors having been around forever in technological terms, and both having been in cars 130 years ago in terms of modern electro-automotive everybody is still in their early generations and nobody has opened up a significant gap yet. The race is easier because everybody is still on or about the start line.

In a straight comparison it is notable that Northvolt circumvented this very problem in reverse when designing their first batteries, and went to Japan to hire their design team.

LFP is an interesting case. Initially overlooked in favour of flashier, more energy dense chemistries for cars in the sophisticated west it was left to 'golf buggies' in the orient. Now it is used by Tesla the sniffiest of battery snobs and will power the 'Entry' tier of VW's unified Cell programme as well as BYD's blade as used by GM.

But far from being because batteries are 'simple' this turn around is because in the real world they are actually quite hard. Note the non-existence of the mythical Tesla 4680 for example, whose absence has so far bought the Roadster, the S Plaid Plus, the Semi and the CT to a grinding halt. Or consider that the entire reason for the dominance of Li-ion batteries now is because nobody has been able to successfully produce commercially viable Lithium batteries which aren't prone to shorting and catching fire in the mere 5 decades since they were developed.

Meanwhile another (predominantly) Chinese company Gotion (26% owned by VW) has pushed LFP density to 210 Wh/kg, and is aiming for 260 Wh/kg next year. Refinement being easier than bleeding edge development.

If Quantumscape (20% VW) can get their separator to production then LFP will get another substantial boost as it is cathode agnostic and would allow pure Lithium anodes to be used in LFP as well as more exotic chemistries, radically increasing energy density again. It's obviously a tech with a future, but that future is built on the real world difficulties inherent in other batteries.

BobbyD,
would be interested in an update.
Has this picture changed any?
tuk020


That's quite a wide ranging quote, and it's been a whole 4 months, anything in particular?

Plenty of new entrants are continuing to fail to go out of business, although obviously there will be fallers. Rivian have made it to market, with a very nice product and frankly ludicrous market cap, whilst established players are announcing more serious investments, and who will manage to deliver what, when and for how much is in many cases up for debate.

Interestingly, from my point of view, both the initial Fisker Ocean design and the new electric Delorian designs were produced for 'upstarts' by Italdesign, VW's Italian design studio giving us what you might call a 'hybrid' electric vehicle.

The only sign of progress on Tesla's 4680 is a claim that they have made enough packs for about 1000 cars, and Panasonic's target to start production in 2 years time. New battery developments remain mainly at the press announcement stage as far as I've seen.

Oh, and quantumscape released a white paper which included these:

Image

Image


- https://www.quantumscape.com/resources/ ... rformance/

which they described a s a cell capable of charging 10% to 80% in under 15 minutes whilst demonstrating over 80% energy retention over 400 cycles, but if you look at the graphs they are both far quicker than 15 minutes and retain far more than 80% energy retention after 400 cycles.


PeterGray wrote:
BobbyD wrote:



It’s easier for Chinese EVs to be successful than Chinese internal combustion cars because European and American automakers have a long history in making engines, it’s hard for Chinese automakers to catch up overnight,” says Ji Shi, an analyst at Haitong International Securities in Hong Kong. “But EVs are different because they are simpler in terms of their structure and Chinese automakers have better supply chains in terms of batteries.”


Agree with the premise but not the conclusion.

It's obviously hard for your 1st, 2nd and 3rg gen engines to compete with somebody else's 35th, 36th and 37th gen engines. However I would suggest it is easier to compete with electric cars not because the tech is simpler but because despite both batteries and motors having been around forever in technological terms, and both having been in cars 130 years ago in terms of modern electro-automotive everybody is still in their early generations and nobody has opened up a significant gap yet. The race is easier because everybody is still on or about the start line.
.....


But that's only considering the drive chain.

There's more to a good car than that - bodies that work, are cost effective to repair, suspensions sytems that work and last, etc, etc. People like VW and Toyota have decades of experience at that. And they make good cars as a result. That's not that easy to catchup with overnight.


I'm not saying it's sufficient, but it is an advantage fewer for legacy and an added area where they can make what turns out to be a very costly decision. Easier for upstarts, not easy.

Personally I'd say legacy's real advantage isn't in the car at all, but in the production engineering, but then that, along with their understanding and utilisation of scale, is why I'll back VW against all comers.

odysseus2000 wrote:VW are having supply chain issues causing them to idle production:

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia ... F5J6bNcg9G

Regards,


Yes, but an interruption in the supply of electrical harnesses as a result of Russian invasion of your supplier is unlikely to be long lasting or relevant to the endeavour to transition to electric cars.


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