Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

[BobbyD]

They've been working with VW for around a decade, VW have tested their products, had access to all their data, deemed them interesting and bought a significant stake in the company*. So whilst we can't see a lot, an experienced engineering firm with one of the biggest R&D budgets on the planet has, and liked what they saw. This gives me some confidence that there is something there which actually has a good chance of making it to market. It's no guarantee, and it won't be the only development if it does, I don't subscribe to the one winner theory, especially since their product is (assuming it can be commercialised) so versatile.

QS has secured more space in San Jose with an eye to production, and their JV with VW is probably going to settle on Salzgitter which is turning in to the hub of VW's battery division. I don't expect to see anything on the market tomorrow, I'd hope they'd have an established presence in 5 years time. So somewhere between those 2 dates...

* Worth noting VW paid a rounding error on their annual profits for it, however QS are firmly entrenched in their plans for electrification.

super helpful insight.
thank you

From a QS 8-K filing:

Item 8.01. Other Events

QuantumScape Corporation (the “Company”) recently signed an agreement with a fourth automotive original equipment manufacturer (“OEM”), a top tenautomaker by global revenues.

1 The companies agreed to collaborate on the validation and testing of Company’s solid-state battery cells with the goal of providingsuch cells to the OEM for inclusion into pre-production prototype vehicles and ultimately into serial production vehicles. The agreement follows testing of theCompany’s early-stage cells by the OEM in its labs.
Subject to satisfactory validation of certain milestones, the Company will reserve at least five MWh of capacity from the Company’s QS-0 pre-pilot production linefacility for this OEM.
In addition, if the milestones are met and the parties mutually agree, they will work together to establish a joint venture with the objective of building and operatinga U.S.-based facility to produce solid-state batteries of up to 50 gigawatt hours (GWh) in capacity for use in the OEM’s serial production vehicles.

https://sec.report/Document/0000950170-22-002391/

VW is the first. The second is also an unknown top 1o manufacturer, the third a global luxury OEM rumoured, believably or not, to be Tesla.

The top 10 list linked to is:

1. Volkswagen – $290.2 billion
2. Toyota – $272.3 Billion
3. Daimler – $193.3 Billion
4. Ford – $156 Billion
5. Honda – $137.3 Billion
6. General Motors – $137.2 Billion
7. Mitsubishi – $135.9 Billion
8. SAIC Motor – $122 Billion
9. BMW – $116.6 Billion
10. Nissan – $90.8 Billion

- https://www.globalcarsbrands.com/car-br ... e-in-2021/

[odysseus2000]

Seems short on detail as to when the 50 GWhr production is likely to happen. Looks like vapour ware to me.

Regards,

[TUK020]

Seems short on detail as to when the 50 GWhr production is likely to happen. Looks like vapour ware to me.

Regards,

Come on, it is only rumoured to be for Tesla

[BobbyD]

Ford ups it's order to 1.2 million units of VW's MEB platform over 6 years.

Ford Motor Company and the Volkswagen Group are expanding their e-mobility partnership. Ford plans to produce another electric model for the European market based on the MEB platform. The automaker will also double its planned MEB volume to 1.2 million units over a six-year timeframe.

- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... tform-7808

[odysseus2000]

Ford ups it's order to 1.2 million units of VW's MEB platform over 6 years.

Ford Motor Company and the Volkswagen Group are expanding their e-mobility partnership. Ford plans to produce another electric model for the European market based on the MEB platform. The automaker will also double its planned MEB volume to 1.2 million units over a six-year timeframe.

- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... tform-7808

This is quite amusing given the recent Ford announcement of splitting their business into ICE and BEV.

So it is ice plus Frankenstein VW.

I can't imagine anyways in which this ends happily given the primitive current hungry MEB platform, but this is what I expect from legacy auto.

Regards,

[TUK020]

Ford ups it's order to 1.2 million units of VW's MEB platform over 6 years.

Ford Motor Company and the Volkswagen Group are expanding their e-mobility partnership. Ford plans to produce another electric model for the European market based on the MEB platform. The automaker will also double its planned MEB volume to 1.2 million units over a six-year timeframe.

- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... tform-7808

Would be interesting to get some breakdown of how value add splits between core platform, materials acquisition, assembly and customisation, sales/financing/ customer fulfillment and aftermarket support.
Be even more interesting to see how this changes from ICE to BEV
Know of any credible source of this info?

[BobbyD]

Would be interesting to get some breakdown of how value add splits between core platform, materials acquisition, assembly and customisation, sales/financing/ customer fulfillment and aftermarket support.
Be even more interesting to see how this changes from ICE to BEV
Know of any credible source of this info?

Unfortunately not and I'd add badge to the list and batteries. Most of it you see in the composite. You might get an idea of the finance side by looking at specialists, or specialist divisions like VW bank who run loan, leasing and dealer financing operations. Ford who are also buying in the drivetrain for the Mach-E will be an interesting point of comparison to companies who have taken more inhouse, and not I suspect in a good way. I'd like to know how much of the electric F150 they 'own'. VW appear to be formalising their platform supply as a new division which might result in clearer information. My incredibly nuanced analysis in this sector is that scale, well applied makes all of those things cheaper, so their relative contributions are less important to me. This is also why most of my examples tend to be VW based.

[BobbyD]

Stockholm/Heide – Today Northvolt announces its intention to establish a battery gigafactory in Heide, Schleswig-Holstein, northern Germany. With an annual potential production capacity of 60 GWh, Northvolt Drei will deliver a supply of sustainably produced lithium-ion batteries to the European market, sufficient for some one million electric vehicles.

- https://northvolt.com/articles/northvolt-drei/

Production expected to start in 2025, coincidently the same year the next set of EU emissions regs come in to play.

[odysseus2000]

Would be interesting to get some breakdown of how value add splits between core platform, materials acquisition, assembly and customisation, sales/financing/ customer fulfillment and aftermarket support.
Be even more interesting to see how this changes from ICE to BEV
Know of any credible source of this info?

Unfortunately not and I'd add badge to the list and batteries. Most of it you see in the composite. You might get an idea of the finance side by looking at specialists, or specialist divisions like VW bank who run loan, leasing and dealer financing operations. Ford who are also buying in the drivetrain for the Mach-E will be an interesting point of comparison to companies who have taken more inhouse, and not I suspect in a good way. I'd like to know how much of the electric F150 they 'own'. VW appear to be formalising their platform supply as a new division which might result in clearer information. My incredibly nuanced analysis in this sector is that scale, well applied makes all of those things cheaper, so their relative contributions are less important to me. This is also why most of my examples tend to be VW based.

The problem with licensing the MEB platform are many and include:

The MEB platform has been deliberately hobbled according to private communications to Munro from VW engineers who worked on it, to make it inferior to ICE alternatives to safeguard the majority of VW production.

There are now many lower cost and arguably better platforms being developed in China and these are coming to Europe not as components but as cars. Anyone using the MEB has to pay VW margin for it and then deal with its underperformance compared to Tesla and Chinese marques. The latter extend from expensive premium cars to low cost transport with the GM subsidiary selling a lot of $5k cars into the Chinese home markets and soon into the US and Europe.

As I have been saying for years legacy auto is in trouble as if they make good BEV they hurt their ICE business and management, shareholders, unions, politicians are loathed to see their dividends go away. However, by not hurting their ICE business they let in Tesla and lots of Chinese makers. I have no idea why anyone owns VW especially with the threat of gas supplies being cut. If gas from Russia is cut off German industry has a big problem and unfortunately for Tesla so does Giga Berlin. However, these fears may not emerge. According to these folk:

https://beyond-coal.eu/russian-fossil-fuel-tracker/

over $12billion Euro has been paid to Russia since they invaded Ukraine for hydrocarbons. Some sanction!

Regards,

[BobbyD]

The problem with licensing the MEB platform are many and include:

The MEB platform has been deliberately hobbled according to private communications to Munro from VW engineers who worked on it, to make it inferior to ICE alternatives to safeguard the majority of VW production.

Humour board: viewforum.php?f=64

[odysseus2000]

The problem with licensing the MEB platform are many and include:

The MEB platform has been deliberately hobbled according to private communications to Munro from VW engineers who worked on it, to make it inferior to ICE alternatives to safeguard the majority of VW production.

Humour board: viewforum.php?f=64

Are you trying to argue that VW engineers gave the MEB platform everything they could with all the issues that it has which were identified by Munroe?

If so that makes VW in even more trouble.

Regards,

[TUK020]

Interesting article in the FT on the need for Fast Charging Networks to drive EV adoption
https://www.ft.com/content/48dbf7ba-eb1 ... il:content

Gist is that BP Pulse (EV charging business of BP) are saying that smaller numbers of locations with bigger numbers of fast & ultrafast chargers are the way to go. UK govmt has been focused on total number of chargers, which is missing the point.

Some nuggets:
- Fast & Ultrafast chargers account for >95% of BP pulse energy sold.
- Dense sites of Ultrafast chargers require grid works to connect.
- Biggest gains for electrification come from delivery, car hire and ride hailing fleets. Charging points need to reflect this
- Fastest chargers today are 400kW. Need to get to 1 MW to charge an HGV in 40 minutes to fit within the 45 minute break required of drivers every 4.5 hrs.

[PeterGray]

One of BP’s ultrafast chargers can deliver 1,000kWh a day if in use for a third of the time. Over the same period, a single lamppost charger would only deliver 40kWh

I can see a role for high capacity charge centres, such as on MWay services.

But they seem to be taking a narrow view. There are millions of households in the UK who don't have parking by their house, so can't charge easily at home without things like lampost chargers. Expecting people to buy EVs in inner city terraces if they have to drive significant distances to a charging station (BP seem to be implying they should be at a lower density than current fuel outlets), and then wait much longer than with petrol/diesel to refuel, in a car will almost certainly have a shorter range on a full charge, seems very short sighted.

This is written from the point of view of a company who see a lot of their future business in replacing petrol with electric sales. But a balanced approach has to make it easier for those without home parking to charge - and lampost chargers are likely to play a very big role there.

Or we move to replacing private cars completely in cities, which may in the end be the way we go.

[Howard]

One of BP’s ultrafast chargers can deliver 1,000kWh a day if in use for a third of the time. Over the same period, a single lamppost charger would only deliver 40kWh

I can see a role for high capacity charge centres, such as on MWay services.

But they seem to be taking a narrow view. There are millions of households in the UK who don't have parking by their house, so can't charge easily at home without things like lampost chargers. Expecting people to buy EVs in inner city terraces if they have to drive significant distances to a charging station (BP seem to be implying they should be at a lower density than current fuel outlets), and then wait much longer than with petrol/diesel to refuel, in a car will almost certainly have a shorter range on a full charge, seems very short sighted.

This is written from the point of view of a company who see a lot of their future business in replacing petrol with electric sales. But a balanced approach has to make it easier for those without home parking to charge - and lampost chargers are likely to play a very big role there.

Or we move to replacing private cars completely in cities, which may in the end be the way we go.

Looking at the situation the other way round, as someone with an electric car, there may be a strong economic and lifestyle argument in favour of a BEV.

We have both a BEV and an ICE car.

From a lifestyle viewpoint, given the convenience of charging a BEV, I now genuinely find it a minor hassle to drive the ICE car to the nearest petrol station three miles away to fill up with petrol.

Yes, we have off road parking and a charger. I accept we are fortunate to have this facility. But millions of motorists also have access to off road areas. Plugging in the BEV takes a minute and I can choose when to do it.

From an economic viewpoint, our BEV will add 125 miles charged overnight and the cost at today’s price of 7.5 p per off peak kWh is around £2.40.

The BEV is leased and it costs almost exactly the same per month as the ICE VW Golf which it replaced.

If we still had the Golf, I’d have the hassle of filling it at a petrol station and at today’s price (£1.80p per litre) 125 miles range would cost me over £25, ten times as much as for the BEV.

Our BEV’s range, driven gently, is around 300 miles in the summer. A little less in winter. If we want to drive some distance I charge it up to 100% the night before. I have never had to use a public charger (but did once for fun to see how they work.)

So, yes we are lucky to have off road charging, but I guess there is an economic argument for electric cars which may become so compelling that their use may trickle down (pun intended) to those with a convenient lamp post charger nearby? This assumes a lamp post could safely deliver 7kW per hour and deliver off peak electricity at reasonable cost?

regards

Howard

[TUK020]

I didn't do a very good job of summarising the article.

Key point - Biggest gains for electrification come from delivery, car hire and ride hailing fleets.

Therefore high capacity & rapid charging points are needed at places like Amazon delivery centres, Airport car hire, DPD etc depot, Post Office sorting centres, Ocado delivery centres etc, etc.
Issue is enabling grid connections at suitable power level to serve these sites.

Domestic users without off road parking are probably a long way down the adoption list - this is the long tail of energy usage.

[odysseus2000]

The primary issue is that only Tesla have committed to creating global networks of chargers. All the other car makers are happy to make BEV, but not to spend on putting in the infra-structure hoping that the politicians will pony up the money and do the job.

For the private motorist with only on street parking the solution looks to be wireless charging with a series of charging pads provided in each street, just like street lights are provided. As cars become smarter they will be able to go to and leave these chargers as needed, signing in and out for power without any input from the owner. The technology looks to be well established and not prohibitively expensive (12min 58):

https://youtu.be/s8EF7ZGORS0

The cost to install a lot of solar panels on buildings continues to fall creating an abundant source of electricity in the UK for about 9-10 months of the year. There are vast amounts of power available from wind turbines, both off shore and smaller units along motorways where traffic flows create the winds needed to extract power.

It has become an hilarious hobby of mine to listen to the folk advocating fracking and expansion of UK gas and oil. As of now the media and many of the folk watching these kinds of video seem to believe that these folk are speaking wisdom, but how long that lasts is far from clear. When ever there is a change of technology the media love to give time to the folk who rubbish it. The amount of air time that was given to folk who said seat belts were dangerous and would never be accepted has been forgotten but at the time many were of the opinion that seat belts should not be mandatory or exist at all. One can go on and on, smoking and drinking were once considered healthy activities. At some point the lies and vested interests of the folk talking all of this stuff become amusing even to folk who have no specific knowledge, but the more electric cars there are, the more folk who will sing their advantages and cost savings and nothing motivates sensible behaviour than stopping a large and regular spend on petrol/diesel and replacing it with a much more convenient and lower costs home solution as Howard notes in this thread. One has a very similar situation to how the VHS recorders were the beginning of the end of the pub sector. As home entertainment with all its convenience has increased the number of pubs has collapsed.

Regards,

[doolally]

There are vast amounts of power available from wind turbines, both off shore and smaller units along motorways where traffic flows create the winds needed to extract power.

Regards,

Can you expand on this?
doolally

[staffordian]

There are vast amounts of power available from wind turbines, both off shore and smaller units along motorways where traffic flows create the winds needed to extract power.

Regards,

Can you expand on this?
doolally

The closest we'll get to a perpetual motion machine?

Draughts from fast moving vehicles drive turbines mounted in the central reservation. They generate electricity from an otherwise wasted resource. This powers the cars which create the draughts

[odysseus2000]

One of the leaders in the field of small road turbines is alpha311:

https://alpha-311.com/

The performance quoted is very impressive compared to solar and a number of schemes are being installed around the country.

Regards,

[TUK020]

One of the leaders in the field of small road turbines is alpha311:

https://alpha-311.com/

The performance quoted is very impressive compared to solar and a number of schemes are being installed around the country.

Regards,

One Alpha 311 turbine, placed on a road and harvesting the untapped air from moving vehicles, can generate as much energy as 30 solar panels.

I dunno what size of solar panel they're benchmarking it against, but lets say a very small 100w single panel, then thats 3kw per turbine. So you'd need 333 of these things to potentially produce 1GW. Not bad!

But that can be right. Surely?

According to my app, the current UK demand is hovering around 30gw.

No power levels quoted anywhere. A more cynical view is the picture was showing a motorway street light with 2 lights per turbine. Using LED floodlights this perhaps means 100w continuous per turbine? = peak 300w?
So we have gone from a discussion about the sweet spot for EV chargers being 100kw-1MW, and the need for the grid and local Distribution Network to be adapted for this in order to encourage the uptake of EVs, to how you can power street lights..............