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Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

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Mike88
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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282388

Postby Mike88 » February 5th, 2020, 10:23 am

How are the government proposing to replace the lost revenue from the sale of petrol and diesel? I can't see road pricing getting anywhere near the amount required.

odysseus2000
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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282406

Postby odysseus2000 » February 5th, 2020, 11:40 am

Mike88 wrote:How are the government proposing to replace the lost revenue from the sale of petrol and diesel? I can't see road pricing getting anywhere near the amount required.


Have you ever known the Treasure fail to find a way to tax?

Regards,

tjh290633
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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282570

Postby tjh290633 » February 5th, 2020, 8:51 pm

Mike88 wrote:How are the government proposing to replace the lost revenue from the sale of petrol and diesel? I can't see road pricing getting anywhere near the amount required.

All you need is something related to the distance covered. Energy used, tyre costs, annual licence fees, plus strategic tolls.

It just needs ingenuity and inventive thinking.

TJH

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282620

Postby redsturgeon » February 6th, 2020, 7:28 am

The tax situation is behind my decision to be an early adopter of electric vehicles.

If I do 10k miles per year then fuel costs are in the region of £120 for electricity (using Octopus energy tariff at 5p per KwH)

In an average petrol car at 40mpg using petrol at 1.30 per litre the fuel cost is £1478.

Clearly much of the difference is due to government fuel tax @ £659 and this will have to be clawed back at some stage in the process.

Some may point out the difference in purchase cost of the BEV vs ICE and this is true to some extent but the way I use cars is to buy or lease from new and use for three years and a lease on a Nissan Leaf and a basic Golf is basically the same price over three years. (c £250pm)

Seems like a no brainer.

John

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282623

Postby Midsmartin » February 6th, 2020, 7:50 am

"How are the government proposing to replace the lost revenue from the sale of petrol and diesel"

What they probably ought to do is introduce a general carbon tax, though a really good one unfortunately requires massive international co-operation to tax carbon at source as it's extracted from the ground. Perhaps electricity itself should become more expensive. One component of the problem is the idea that energy should be cheap and almost unlimited. Maybe energy should actually be expensive, to reflect the harm done by it's generation, by the building of new roads, not to mention the manufacturer of enormous quantities of car batteries which may themselves be tricky to recycle.

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282626

Postby scrumpyjack » February 6th, 2020, 8:26 am

Probably by road pricing. Put lots more number plate recognition cameras up and charge for road usage. Different prices can be used at different times to reduce peak traffic congestion etc.

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282635

Postby Wuffle » February 6th, 2020, 9:00 am

Nah, GPS and a big algorithm.
Big brother stuff.
Hospital appointments in a cab so you get health insurance next year. That kind of thing.
Your phone is already doing it.
Have a nice day.

PeterGray
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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282643

Postby PeterGray » February 6th, 2020, 9:27 am

Nah, GPS and a big algorithm.

Exactly, some car insurers are already doing something similar. It wouldn't be technically hard to set up a tracking system that then allowed road pricing which could be based not only on miles travelled, but take into account traffic density - pay more for driving in congested areas.

There are of course privacy concerns to consider!

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282662

Postby Howard » February 6th, 2020, 10:07 am

PeterGray wrote:Nah, GPS and a big algorithm.

Exactly, some car insurers are already doing something similar. It wouldn't be technically hard to set up a tracking system that then allowed road pricing which could be based not only on miles travelled, but take into account traffic density - pay more for driving in congested areas.

There are of course privacy concerns to consider!


You are right. My dashcam and my car's cpu already know all about my driving habits (and misdemeanours). Road tax could be more for people who accelerate fast, drive over the speed limit and corner fast. All these add to road wear. Insurers who provide lower quotes for young drivers with telematics already know if their clients are parked outside night clubs at 1.00 am, so this technology already exists.

Would we all be happy with this level of monitoring? To achieve carbon zero targets in the time scale envisaged and to raise the necessary taxes to fund the transition the government may have to use current monitoring technologies like these as new technologies won't scale up quickly enough.

regards

Howard

PS Currently, a bit under the radar, our government are already giving huge tax incentives through BIK subsidies to wealthy business owners to change to BEV company cars. I'm not against this, but it should be recognised that this is a big transfer of wealth from the poor motorist to the rich. ;) And it may not make much difference to the environment over the next five years if a few thousand wealthy motorists change to BEVs. A much bigger scale initiative is required.

odysseus2000
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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282665

Postby odysseus2000 » February 6th, 2020, 10:21 am

Another nicer possibility is that a serious switch to BEV and associated hardware, generates so much extra income for folk doing this work that tax revenues from existing sources increase. The need to recoup lost tax from sales of petrol and diesel etc then being put off for several years as even if everyone wanted a BEV there are limits on how many could be made and on battery supply so there will still be petrol and diesel sales for a few years and the tax take on existing ICE users could gently rise as the number of BEV increases to compensate and direct more folk towards BEV. I would be amazed if the Treasury have not already done a large amount of work on this and has mathematical models that estimate tax take in relation to BEV take up. Generally I expect the earlier adopters of BEV, as was the case with roof top solar, to do a lot better than the late comers.

If I was a legacy maker with large existing production lines for ICE and hybrid-ICE I would be worried about all these developments.

Regards,

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282695

Postby redsturgeon » February 6th, 2020, 11:35 am

I see no issue with pricing road users on their actual usage of the publicly provided roads to replace the money lost on fuel tax. As has been mentioned it would be very easy to price roads differently according to usage. Motorways would command a premium and rural b roads might be either very cheap or free to travel on. Pricing could also vary by time a date of travel. Systems are already in existence that could do this.

John

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282704

Postby Howard » February 6th, 2020, 11:44 am

Just to give an idea of the task ahead in encouraging drivers to change to BEVs.

In the UK in total, just over 4,000 BEVs were sold in January giving them a 2.7% share of the market. (In 2019 for the year, their market share was 1.6% so this is a modest increase.)

To get this share to, say, over 60% which is roughly the market share for petrol cars at the moment, will take incentives which would influence nearly every potential car buyer. Although it is expected that BEVs will jump in popularity this year, it's a big task for the next 15 years.

regards

Howard

https://www.smmt.co.uk/category/news/

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#282740

Postby odysseus2000 » February 6th, 2020, 1:57 pm

Howard

In the UK in total, just over 4,000 BEVs were sold in January giving them a 2.7% share of the market. (In 2019 for the year, their market share was 1.6% so this is a modest increase.)



1.6 to 2.7 is an increase 1.1, 1.1/1.6 = 62.5%.

If this rate of increase continues, the number of BEV will double every approx 72/62.5 = 1.15 years

Year %
1 1.6
2 2.6
3 4.23
4 6.87
5 11.16
6 18.13
7 29.46
8 47.87
9 77.79

You can model what ever growth rate you want with next years being = (last years)x(1+ growth rate) where growth rate is .625 in this example.

Regards,

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#284645

Postby TUK020 » February 16th, 2020, 7:59 am

FT article behind paywall:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2845e24-1c4 ... il:content

"Electric cars threaten to pull the plug on petrol stations"

Looks at Bergen, Norway (where 1 in 5 cars is electric) as a glimpse into the future.
Points out that Electric car owners mostly charge at home and at work, and discusses whether only motorway & supermarket stations will survive.
Counter point is that most people stop at fuel station for comfort breaks in priority over fuel.
Also counter point that most profits come from food and retail sales, not fuel.

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#284692

Postby dspp » February 16th, 2020, 11:53 am

TUK020 wrote:FT article behind paywall:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2845e24-1c4 ... il:content

"Electric cars threaten to pull the plug on petrol stations"

Looks at Bergen, Norway (where 1 in 5 cars is electric) as a glimpse into the future.
Points out that Electric car owners mostly charge at home and at work, and discusses whether only motorway & supermarket stations will survive.
Counter point is that most people stop at fuel station for comfort breaks in priority over fuel.
Also counter point that most profits come from food and retail sales, not fuel.


When I talk to BEV owners (as opposed to PHEV owners) they tell me that 95% of their charging is done at home, or at a workplace. However the typical early adopter of a BEV does tend to have a driveway whereas I think about 1/3 - 1/2 of the UK population does not.

regards, dspp

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#382842

Postby TUK020 » February 1st, 2021, 5:27 pm

Wondering aloud.....every now and then I suddenly catch myself and question if we are all looking at the wrong thing.

Read snippets about changing consumer travel habits in a COVID world:
- people avoiding public transport
- uptick in congestion for cars
- cities rezoning streets to create pedestrian zones and bike paths.
- vast majority of private vehicle journeys are short but would be a lengthy walk

Spend time thinking about barriers to EV adoption, and keep coming up to the problems for on street charging, or having to go somewhere and leave the vehicle for a rapid charge.

And when I am out and about, the evidence I see of EV adoption is............ eBikes and eScooters everywhere
Charging, take the fold up scooter (or at least the battery) indoors with you and plug it in next to your desk.

Is the real action in Xiaomi & Segway and a whole bunch of funky brands that I have never heard of? Spread payments from £11/month?
Retail action in Halfords, not car dealerships?

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#383653

Postby JamesMuenchen » February 4th, 2021, 2:15 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Time to scrap the whole overhead wire nonsense & make battery trains, but the politicians seem determined to put in overhead wire trains no matter the cost, inconvenience & high maintenance costs or the near certainty of being scrapped in the short term.

Regards,


On the other hand, it's being trialled as a means to charge electric trucks on-the-go

https://www.scania.com/group/en/home/ne ... pands.html
Developed by Siemens, the electrification system used on these roads allows trucks with the necessary pantograph mounted to their roof to travel at speeds of up to 90 km/h on fully electrical power, converting back to the truck’s internal combustion engine once leaving the electrified stretch, ideally powered by biodiesel for a larger CO2-reduction.

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#383661

Postby NeilW » February 4th, 2021, 2:48 pm

Mike88 wrote:How are the government proposing to replace the lost revenue from the sale of petrol and diesel?


There is no lost revenue. That belief is a myth. The point of fuel duty (or pretty much any duty) is for it never to be paid - because the behaviour has stopped. That's how 'sin taxes' work.

What isn't spent on fuel is spent on something else (because it is Sterling and they don't use that anywhere else), and that transaction will be taxed. What is left is earned as income which will be spent elsewhere again, and that transaction is taxed, and so on around the spending loop. As with any other 'tax cut' you just get an increased number of overall transactions.

In aggregate the only leakages from the spending flow that can occur in a floating rate currency like Sterling are taxation and savings. And both of those end up in accounts at the Bank of England, which is owned by HM Treasury.

NeilW

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#383681

Postby tjh290633 » February 4th, 2021, 4:09 pm

JamesMuenchen wrote:On the other hand, it's being trialled as a means to charge electric trucks on-the-go

https://www.scania.com/group/en/home/ne ... pands.html
Developed by Siemens, the electrification system used on these roads allows trucks with the necessary pantograph mounted to their roof to travel at speeds of up to 90 km/h on fully electrical power, converting back to the truck’s internal combustion engine once leaving the electrified stretch, ideally powered by biodiesel for a larger CO2-reduction.

Presumably they will run on steel roads, like dodgem cars, or else they will need twin trolley booms, as opposed to pantographs, which cannot deal with two wires at once, unless the vehicle is on tracks.

TJH

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Re: Transition to Electric Car Endeavours

#383684

Postby JohnB » February 4th, 2021, 4:18 pm



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