Iran

[JoyofBricks8]

I have now seen the wreckage photos purported to be the downed airliner: No doubt in my mind that the fuselage section pictured was battle-damaged. There are patterns of damaged punctured aluminium parts characteristic of shrapnel spraying from a fragmentation warhead in proximity to the airframe.

Let me be the first to salute the indefatiguability in stupidity of the Iranian state.

Either Irans military is so utterly and grotesquely incompetent to shoot down a large civilian passenger jet that left their own airport minutes before and was under their own Air Traffic control scheme. Or they deliberately targeted for murder 176 civilians.

Epic, epic fail either way.

Let’s see your apologist like Jeremy Corbyn excuse this.

My bold - and your area of expertise is what exactly?

The internet. So obviously I have no sensible knowledge whatsoever. But we have all read the reports into the MH17 shootdown, and seen similar damage patterns on the newspaper front pages highlighted there. The alloy skin there was inwardly punctured numerous times by something external. One can find examples of similar things in IWM Duxford. Or photos of similar stuff in any of a dozen archives in the internet.

If it was a single engine with a fan disintegrating one would reasonably expect inward punctures on one side of the jet only, Yet the images seem to show inward damage on lots of surfaces well away from the engines.

What could cause that? Not many things.

[redsturgeon]

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/ ... soleimani/

Interesting perspective on the assassination.

I'm not sure whether this is in the realms of idle speculation, useful background or conspiracy theory though.

John

[dspp]

For imagery of the IRBM hits on the US bases in Iraq see https://www.space.com/iran-missile-atta ... hotos.html

Regarding whether or not there was a small SAM hit on the 737 it is too early to be sure.

regards, dspp

[paullidd]

I have now seen the wreckage photos purported to be the downed airliner: No doubt in my mind that the fuselage section pictured was battle-damaged. There are patterns of damaged punctured aluminium parts characteristic of shrapnel spraying from a fragmentation warhead in proximity to the airframe.

Let me be the first to salute the indefatiguability in stupidity of the Iranian state.

Either Irans military is so utterly and grotesquely incompetent to shoot down a large civilian passenger jet that left their own airport minutes before and was under their own Air Traffic control scheme. Or they deliberately targeted for murder 176 civilians.

Epic, epic fail either way.

Let’s see your apologist like Jeremy Corbyn excuse this.

My bold - and your area of expertise is what exactly?

The internet. So obviously I have no sensible knowledge whatsoever. But we have all read the reports into the MH17 shootdown, and seen similar damage patterns on the newspaper front pages highlighted there. The alloy skin there was inwardly punctured numerous times by something external. One can find examples of similar things in IWM Duxford. Or photos of similar stuff in any of a dozen archives in the internet.

If it was a single engine with a fan disintegrating one would reasonably expect inward punctures on one side of the jet only, Yet the images seem to show inward damage on lots of surfaces well away from the engines.

What could cause that? Not many things.

What happens when a fully fuelled airliner goes bang? Witness reports allegedly say the aircraft was on fire before the crash, so if true not missile strike.

[dspp]

My bold - and your area of expertise is what exactly?

If it was a single engine with a fan disintegrating one would reasonably expect inward punctures on one side of the jet only, Yet the images seem to show inward damage on lots of surfaces well away from the engines.

What happens when a fully fuelled airliner goes bang? Witness reports allegedly say the aircraft was on fire before the crash, so if true not missile strike.

A small SAM hit, or a small AAM hit, (whether accidental or deliberate) could start a chain of events that led to what was observed. So too could a number of other things, both accidental or otherwise. They have recovered the FDR, and the debris field is easily accessible for perusal. The internet photos are so far inconclusive whatever the armchair experts are saying. If one reads the PPRUNE or bellingcat threads on this one needs to set aside the views of most commentators, and concentrate on those who have longstanding reputations for a good reason, and the latter are very unsure. There are also reports of a seeker head being recovered from a few miles away but that is not at all verified in time/space as being relevant (though it is indeed a photo of a relevant type of seeker head). These 737-NG are literally the most popular aircraft in the world and so too are their CFM engines, so a lot of people are very keen to get to the bottom of this PDQ for very obvious reasons.

regards, dspp

[scrumpyjack]

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/01/08/the-deeper-story-behind-the-assassination-of-soleimani/

Interesting perspective on the assassination.

I'm not sure whether this is in the realms of idle speculation, useful background or conspiracy theory though.

John

It seems that this is a Russian misinformation website
https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Strategic_C ... Foundation

[redsturgeon]

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/01/08/the-deeper-story-behind-the-assassination-of-soleimani/

Interesting perspective on the assassination.

I'm not sure whether this is in the realms of idle speculation, useful background or conspiracy theory though.

John

It seems that this is a Russian misinformation website
https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Strategic_C ... Foundation

Aha..a fourth possibility!

John

[TUK020]

I have now seen the wreckage photos purported to be the downed airliner: No doubt in my mind that the fuselage section pictured was battle-damaged. There are patterns of damaged punctured aluminium parts characteristic of shrapnel spraying from a fragmentation warhead in proximity to the airframe.

Let me be the first to salute the indefatiguability in stupidity of the Iranian state.

Either Irans military is so utterly and grotesquely incompetent to shoot down a large civilian passenger jet that left their own airport minutes before and was under their own Air Traffic control scheme. Or they deliberately targeted for murder 176 civilians.

Epic, epic fail either way.

Let’s see your apologist like Jeremy Corbyn excuse this.

My bold - and your area of expertise is what exactly?

And how would you easily distinguish between an "uncontained engine failure" and shrapnel damage?

[dspp]

I have now seen the wreckage photos purported to be the downed airliner: No doubt in my mind that the fuselage section pictured was battle-damaged. There are patterns of damaged punctured aluminium parts characteristic of shrapnel spraying from a fragmentation warhead in proximity to the airframe.

Let me be the first to salute the indefatiguability in stupidity of the Iranian state.

Either Irans military is so utterly and grotesquely incompetent to shoot down a large civilian passenger jet that left their own airport minutes before and was under their own Air Traffic control scheme. Or they deliberately targeted for murder 176 civilians.

Epic, epic fail either way.

Let’s see your apologist like Jeremy Corbyn excuse this.

My bold - and your area of expertise is what exactly?

And how would you easily distinguish between an "uncontained engine failure" and shrapnel damage?

1. Embedded fragment analysis.
2. Size, location, and distribution of damage arcs and trajectories.
3. Energy needed to cause observed damage.
4. Residues on structure.
5. Effect on engine itself, and related systems.
6. Presence or absence of other parts.

The people who are longstanding thoughtful commentators on the PPRUNE and Bellingcat sites are being hesitant to label this one way or another. However they have pointed out problems in the assumptions many others are making. By the way do not discount collision with a UAV, or an explosive device within the plane itself (though unlikely given the evidence so far), as well as the SAM/AAM hypotheses or the engine failure etc hypotheses.

regards, dspp

[dspp]

The translation is a bit fruity !
https://www.unian.info/world/10823759-p ... gines.html

"Members of the Ukrainian state commission investigating the crash of the Ukrainian Boeing 737 near Tehran, who had earlier arrived in Iran and have examined the plane wreckage.

The engine malfunction version cannot be confirmed, a Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov said with reference to his source in the team......

"Currently, I am observing both aircraft engines – and I don't see any traces of fire on them. Fragments of the right wing were brought here, too – there are also no traces of fire on them, so the version of engine malfunction, engine explosion, can't be confirmed at the moment. The plane was on fire, but the version of engine malfunction is not being confirmed," the source said....

At the same time, the Ukrainians have not seen air traffic control radar data. There is no information on objects that could be flying near the Boeing and collide with it, or if there was a missile launch. This information is yet to be provided to Ukrainians.

According to the source, the Iranians are fully cooperating in the investigation. "The Iranians don't seem to be going to keep any info from anyone, they are going to provide access to the investigation and decryption of black box flight recorders to all parties, including Americans, aircraft manufacturers, as well as all countries whose citizens died, in accordance with the Chicago Convention... Iranians demonstrate normal dialogue, there are no signals that they intentionally seek to hide any information, so far everything is right and transparent enough," ...

Butusov, in turn, suggests a fire could break in the cabin. "The absence of any communications with the dispatcher and the absence of fire in the engines suggests that the version of a terrorist attack, a collision with a drone, or an anti-aircraft missile explosion is very likely," the journalist alleged."

regards, dspp

[dspp]

Various other sources beginning to contribute data in support of SAM missile theory

"UK sources told the Guardian that the UK had seen US intelligence that suggested that the plane was hit by an Iranian air defence missile.

Separately, officials told US media they had identified the signature from an Iranian anti-aircraft missile battery being activated shortly before the aircraft crashed into countryside south-west of the Iranian capital, killing all on 176 on board. The officials also said they had identified the infrared signature from two suspected missile launches followed shortly afterwards by the infra red blip from the burning and fatally disabled aircraft."

"The US magazine Newsweek and CBS News also quoted intelligence sources claiming the jet carrying 176 passengers and crew had been shot down, the latter citing evidence of infrared blips detected by satellites that were consistent with at least two missile launches followed by an explosion."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ls-believe

dspp

[Lootman]

Various other sources beginning to contribute data in support of SAM missile theory

I struggle to believe that the Iranians would have done this on purpose. The Ukraine is not a participant in the current conflict. Half the passengers were Iranian and most of the rest were of Iranian extraction. 60 or so of the passengers were Canadians who are hardly seen as Iran's enemy here. And there were no Americans on board.

So that just leaves incompetence on behalf of Iranian air defence. Were they trigger happy expecting a US incursion?

Or maybe a unit that went rogue?

[scrumpyjack]

All very sad but I suspect incompetence is the reason. No one seems to have raised the issue of why on earth all these Westerners were in Iran to start with. They must have been bonkers, and 64 Canadians! It beggars belief when there are frequent examples of westerners being thrown in prison for nothing there, that any responsible company would send its employees or any sensible individual would agree to go.

[dspp]

Various other sources beginning to contribute data in support of SAM missile theory

I struggle to believe that the Iranians would have done this on purpose. The Ukraine is not a participant in the current conflict. Half the passengers were Iranian and most of the rest were of Iranian extraction. 60 or so of the passengers were Canadians who are hardly seen as Iran's enemy here. And there were no Americans on board.

So that just leaves incompetence on behalf of Iranian air defence. Were they trigger happy expecting a US incursion?

Or maybe a unit that went rogue?

There are a few interesting details here. One is that the missile system in question is a fairly hefty medium range piece of kit, somewhat similar to Rapier in size etc. (see wiki here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system ) It is not a shoulder-mounted SAM. This in turn means it would have been ordinarily subject to a fairly robust military command & control organisation, not (ordinarily) just a single person being a bit crazy. Secondly it is a command guidance system, so there is a very limited opportunity to go "OMG" and abort/miss, although the missile does - as far as I can see - have some ability to go autonomous. Lastly there are some reports of two launches per the IR signature from remote observation (they are understandably not saying what was watching, at least not yet). If so that tends to mean a deliberate launch iaw standard procedures to ensure a high P(K) on the target. Again, if true, an indication of a controlled authorised launch.

That in turn was why I mentioned the seismic activity, as it could explain why people might have been trigger-happy. And of course we have no idea what else was in the skies over Tehran that night, but you can bet that any sensible air defence operator in Iran would have been half-frazzled with nerves by dawn that night.

I am sure more info will come out. That is if this is indeed the correct direction of enquiry.

regards, dspp

[Lootman]

All very sad but I suspect incompetence is the reason. No one seems to have raised the issue of why on earth all these Westerners were in Iran to start with. They must have been bonkers, and 64 Canadians! It beggars belief when there are frequent examples of westerners being thrown in prison for nothing there, that any responsible company would send its employees or any sensible individual would agree to go.

From what I read many had been attending a wedding of Iranian-Canadians from Edmonton, Alberta. Canada ended up with a good number of the diaspora that happened when the Shah was deposed.

There are no direct flights from North America to Tehran, and so people who wanted to make the trip needed to use more marginal airlines. Transiting via Kiev was a popular and cheap choice, apparently.

So far there were 60 or so dead Iranians at the General's funeral and now another 80 in this fiasco.

[odysseus2000]

Lots of sources now saying this was a shoot down by an Iranian missile battery and deliberate as two missiles were used.

One thing that has puzzled me in these kinds of shoot downs, as happened in the Gulf via the US ship Vincennes, the Russian exercise and this one, is that why does the Friend or Foe (FOF) transponder not alert the shooter that this is a civilian airline. As I understand it all air craft carry a FOF for identification purposes and to prevent this kind of tragedy.

As I think about the situation, a few possibilities come to mind:

The shooter may have orders to down the airline for some reason and so ignores the FOF signal.

The shooter may believe that the FOF is a decoy and that what he/she is engaging is not the airliner that the FOF says, that it is e.g. some clandestine enemy trying to take advantage by subterfuge.

The FOF fails or gives the wrong codes, but this seems unlikely as these things are regularly checked and the airliner would be grounded without a working FOF.

So I return to the two earlier possibilities and wonder about the chain of command that must be involved before the fire order is given.

From what i understood of the US Vincennes shoot down of the Iranian airline, the report argued that the operators mistook rate of climb as rate of descent and ignored the FOF. It all seemed wild and ridiculous, but sometimes people do daft things, although the intense training of US defence crews makes me wonder if this report was all some big cover up, or if it was as stated human error.

Dunno, I am not minded to fly anywhere near military manoeuvres or combat zones, but mostly I have no idea what might be happening a long way below.

Regards,

[dspp]

Lots of sources now saying this was a shoot down by an Iranian missile battery and deliberate as two missiles were used.

One thing that has puzzled me in these kinds of shoot downs, as happened in the Gulf via the US ship Vincennes, the Russian exercise and this one, is that why does the Friend or Foe (FOF) transponder not alert the shooter that this is a civilian airline. As I understand it all air craft carry a FOF for identification purposes and to prevent this kind of tragedy.

As I think about the situation, a few possibilities come to mind:

The shooter may have orders to down the airline for some reason and so ignores the FOF signal.

The shooter may believe that the FOF is a decoy and that what he/she is engaging is not the airliner that the FOF says, that it is e.g. some clandestine enemy trying to take advantage by subterfuge.

The FOF fails or gives the wrong codes, but this seems unlikely as these things are regularly checked and the airliner would be grounded without a working FOF.

So I return to the two earlier possibilities and wonder about the chain of command that must be involved before the fire order is given.

From what i understood of the US Vincennes shoot down of the Iranian airline, the report argued that the operators mistook rate of climb as rate of descent and ignored the FOF. It all seemed wild and ridiculous, but sometimes people do daft things, although the intense training of US defence crews makes me wonder if this report was all some big cover up, or if it was as stated human error.

Dunno, I am not minded to fly anywhere near military manoeuvres or combat zones, but mostly I have no idea what might be happening a long way below.

Regards,

Most of the Tor systems don't even have an IFF fitted. If you read the wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system only one variant has an IFF. This is not uncommon in Soviet kit as they didn't expect to have air superiority ! That in fact is why they invested more in ground-based systems than in air-based systems, and continue to do so hence all the issues with the S-400 longer range systems (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system).

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

Most of the Tor systems don't even have an IFF fitted. If you read the wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system only one variant has an IFF. This is not uncommon in Soviet kit as they didn't expect to have air superiority ! That in fact is why they invested more in ground-based systems than in air-based systems, and continue to do so hence all the issues with the S-400 longer range systems (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system).

regards, dspp

Not much point having IFF if the things shooting at you can't read it.

Makes the Iran shoot down more likely a human error.

Regards,

[JoyofBricks8]

My bold - and your area of expertise is what exactly?

Well, turns out for an amateur, I was correct: Prime Minister Johnson now also saying it was shot down.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... port-says/

It is always gratifying to have ones judgement be proved right against a doubting Thomas like paulidd.

The Iranian regime are ever keen to point out the wrongs the USA has inflicted upon them. One of their favourite grievances is the 1988 Iran Air crash. That airliner was shot down in a blunder by the US Navy, killing all on board.

If there is any silver lining to this Iranian clusterfeck, it is that the totalitarian theocrats of Iran can no longer credibly use that particular tragedy as moral leverage.

.

[servodude]

My bold - and your area of expertise is what exactly?

Well, turns out for an amateur, I was correct: Prime Minister Johnson now also saying it was shot down.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... port-says/

It is always gratifying to have ones judgement be proved right against a doubting Thomas like paulidd.

The Iranian regime are ever keen to point out the wrongs the USA has inflicted upon them. One of their favourite grievances is the 1988 Iran Air crash. That airliner was shot down in a blunder by the US Navy, killing all on board.

If there is any silver lining to this Iranian clusterfeck, it is that the totalitarian theocrats of Iran can no longer credibly use that particular tragedy as moral leverage.

.

How long before some guy on holiday from Libya (with a SAM) gets the finger pointed at him?

- sd