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UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

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redsturgeon
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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#314845

Postby redsturgeon » June 3rd, 2020, 4:27 pm

Moderator Message:
Please remember this thread is on Macro Topics. No political post here please. Any political posts will be deleted.

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#315641

Postby GrahamPlatt » June 5th, 2020, 8:10 pm

Just read that Nissan have informed the Spanish govt, by video call on a Wednesday, that they’re closing the Barcelona plant (3,200 direct jobs, ~25,000 indirect) following 31% fall in sales.

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#315649

Postby odysseus2000 » June 5th, 2020, 8:53 pm

GrahamPlatt wrote:Just read that Nissan have informed the Spanish govt, by video call on a Wednesday, that they’re closing the Barcelona plant (3,200 direct jobs, ~25,000 indirect) following 31% fall in sales.


I was communicating with some Spanish folk and wondering how the market was there for roof top solar. I was told that the politicians have "forbidden" private roof top solar via taxes and difficult legislation etc and electricity is expensive.

According to wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Spain

things are changing since the new government was elected (late 2018) and solar having been over developed leading to very low prices and no returns on investments is now no longer the pariah it was.

Stlll with such a solar history, it is perhaps not surprising that Nissan have legged it, but are staying in the UK with its renewable energy policy and potentially lower electricity costs.

I may be completely wrong here and I would like to be corrected if some one knows the situation in Spain with regard to Nissan and renewables.

Regards,

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#343046

Postby odysseus2000 » September 26th, 2020, 4:32 pm

This is an interesting speech by the PM to the UN:

https://youtu.be/zf4YEyh7erE

He discusses the positives and negatives of advanced technology and then invites all the UN delegates to London next year to discuss how these new technologies can be made positives, not negatives for the world. Mentioning as he goes that the UK is the leader in technology in Europe with 1/2 million people working in the field.

This suggests any business that can dress up its products as being in advanced technology will likely get government funding and that suggests there may be opportunities for investors to buy equites in such companies.

What investment opportunities do people see?

Regards,

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#362837

Postby Adamski » December 4th, 2020, 10:06 am

Looks like we may have finally got a trade deal. Yipee. EU official says posturing from uk side. Govt making out deal receding. But eu official says announcement of deal by weekend. There been an up tick last 15 minutes in pound sterling, gbp:eur. Looks like a deal imminent to me, but theatrics to play to Euro skeptic Mps.

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#362869

Postby odysseus2000 » December 4th, 2020, 11:26 am

Adamski wrote:Looks like we may have finally got a trade deal. Yipee. EU official says posturing from uk side. Govt making out deal receding. But eu official says announcement of deal by weekend. There been an up tick last 15 minutes in pound sterling, gbp:eur. Looks like a deal imminent to me, but theatrics to play to Euro skeptic Mps.


i have deal fatigue.

There have been so many deadlines, so many its on, its off, so many victories, so many sell outs, that I have lost interest.

After all of this it would be nice if something good emerged.

Regards,

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#363121

Postby ursaminortaur » December 5th, 2020, 11:44 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
Adamski wrote:Looks like we may have finally got a trade deal. Yipee. EU official says posturing from uk side. Govt making out deal receding. But eu official says announcement of deal by weekend. There been an up tick last 15 minutes in pound sterling, gbp:eur. Looks like a deal imminent to me, but theatrics to play to Euro skeptic Mps.


i have deal fatigue.

There have been so many deadlines, so many its on, its off, so many victories, so many sell outs, that I have lost interest.

After all of this it would be nice if something good emerged.

Regards,


If a deal does emerge it will be barely better than there being no deal. The lack of tariffs and quotas will help some industries but the non-tariff barriers and additional redtape will still be crushing. The OBR forecast a longterm drag on the UK economy of 4% if a deal is concluded - with a further 2% drag added to that if there is no deal. So even with a deal the estimated economic hit will be bigger than that for Covid-19.

https://www.ft.com/content/5d100427-cc85-4b78-ae65-580a450ac503

No-deal Brexit is the UK’s biggest economic threat, not Covid
.
.
.
This week, the OBR has confirmed its view that the long-term, permanent drag on the UK economy, compared with continued EU membership, will be 4 per cent of gross domestic product, assuming that the negotiations go well and the substantial, practical changes involved in ending the transition period go smoothly.

To put that in context, the economic hit is more than the OBR’s estimate of the long-term damage caused by Covid-19. It completed its analysis before the initially positive news about the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine and assumed that a vaccine would not be rolled out until the second half of next year. In what now looks like a pessimistic scenario, the long-term economic hit is estimated at 3 per cent.
.
.
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Given the lack of progress in EU-UK negotiations, the OBR has considered it necessary to produce an analysis of a no-deal scenario. It shows a further, permanent deterioration in the economy of almost 2 per cent on top of the 4 per cent loss already assumed.

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#363136

Postby Adamski » December 5th, 2020, 12:47 pm

@ursaminortaur - yes it is going to be a negative too the economy, however, I personally think that the 'deal' we get will only be for 3 1/2 years anyway.

My prediction for the future is we are likely to have a change of government in May 2024. When Keir and his labour remainers are in charge, they will negotiate a new deal, which I suspect will be outside of the EU in name only, and back in the customs union. That is my guess. That would be a boost for the economy and liked by the markets. However damage would be caused to the country by Annaliese Dodds and her taxes waiting in the wings on corporations and "those with broadest shoulders", so what you may get is a temporary deal under Boris, then a new deal under Keir and a short term boost, then an exodus of business and the rich people leaving the UK, like they left France under Hollande.

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#363140

Postby ursaminortaur » December 5th, 2020, 12:59 pm

Adamski wrote:@ursaminortaur - yes it is going to be a negative too the economy, however, I personally think that the 'deal' we get will only be for 3 1/2 years anyway.

My prediction for the future is we are likely to have a change of government in May 2024. When Keir and his labour remainers are in charge, they will negotiate a new deal, which I suspect will be outside of the EU in name only, and back in the customs union. That is my guess. That would be a boost for the economy and liked by the markets. However damage would be caused to the country by Annaliese Dodds and her taxes waiting in the wings on corporations and "those with broadest shoulders", so what you may get is a temporary deal under Boris, then a new deal under Keir and a short term boost, then an exodus of business and the rich people leaving the UK, like they left France under Hollande.


Whether there is a deal or no deal lots of businesses are moving to the continent (or shutting up shop) since otherwise they won't be able to survive in the UK. No need to wait for a Labour government in 2024 the brain drain will be in full flood long before then (though of course the actual process of moving to another country will be rather more difficult than it was for the French under Hollande who could just take advantage of FoM).

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#363160

Postby odysseus2000 » December 5th, 2020, 2:16 pm

I am fascinated by the belief people have in their ability to predict the future.

Me? I haven't a clue what will happen.

I have emigrated and experienced how easy that is. Hint, most folk haven't got what it takes.

UK business will collapse? No body will buy anything. Maybe, but folk keep wanting to come here and the last time I was in the local supermarket it was heaving with customers, all pushing big trolleys.

EU will make things so difficult that the UK will be crippled. Maybe but that will hurt German auto and the EU has a big German influence.

The current government will collapse. Maybe, but maybe the alternative won't do so well, so perhaps we get a hung parliament of stagnation, or maybe the UK reform party wins some seats and holds with other small parties the balance of power. I am great at predicting what will happen and then explaining why what I predicted didn't happen, but everyone here seems super confident.

This is the worst situation the uk has ever experienced.

Worse than Dunkirk?

Worse than the 1929 Wall street crash and the great depression?

Worse than the success of German infantry at the start of the first world war?

Worse than seeing Napolean roll over his enemies to dominate Europe?

Worse than seeing the Spanish Amada coming at us?

Worse than the civil war of 1642?

Worse than Cromwell's puritans?

I could go on and on, but although there is a vast emotional belief that things have never been worse and that everyone who doesn't think like you is an idiot, it all ain't so.

Regards,

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#363168

Postby NeilW » December 5th, 2020, 2:33 pm

Adamski wrote:Looks like we may have finally got a trade deal. Yipee. EU official says posturing from uk side. Govt making out deal receding. But eu official says announcement of deal by weekend. There been an up tick last 15 minutes in pound sterling, gbp:eur. Looks like a deal imminent to me, but theatrics to play to Euro skeptic Mps.


That aged well :-)

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#363201

Postby PeterGray » December 5th, 2020, 4:14 pm

I am fascinated by the belief people have in their ability to predict the future.

Me? I haven't a clue what will happen.


Well, I certainly wouldn't rate my prediction abilities very high. But when the ONS, the BoE and others are all pretty unanimous that even a thin deal will mean 3-4% off GDP for the foreseable future, and people involved in shipping are saying Dover and places can't cope, and the govt has planned for 50,000 new customs officers, who need paying, and most of those are not yet recruited or trained ... then I think the likelihood is firmly on the downside.

Will it be as bad as Dunkirk or the Blitz. No But that was always one of the most absurd remarks by Brexiteers. No one chose any of those. The fact that Brexit won't be as bad as two of the worst events in UK history, which did not happen by choice has never been any sort of argument for choosing Brexit and the massive risks, and likely downside it involves.

And we need to be quite clear. What is on offer now, if it happens, is a long way from the promises leading Brexiteers made (Johnson and many others) before the referendum where we were provmised cake and eat it, full access to the single market, a "better" deal than we had in the EU.... Worse even than May's deal that the hard Brexiteers rejected. The risks and likely downside have got a lot worse since people had a chance to vote on it. And to cap it all Johnson wants to break international law, breach a critical treaty and lead make any serious deal US (always promised as being a benefit) almost impossible.

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#363225

Postby TUK020 » December 5th, 2020, 5:06 pm

PeterGray wrote:
Well, I certainly wouldn't rate my prediction abilities very high. But when the ONS, the BoE and others are all pretty unanimous that even a thin deal will mean 3-4% off GDP for the foreseable future, and people involved in shipping are saying Dover and places can't cope, and the govt has planned for 50,000 new customs officers, who need paying, and most of those are not yet recruited or trained ... then I think the likelihood is firmly on the downside.

Will it be as bad as Dunkirk or the Blitz. No But that was always one of the most absurd remarks by Brexiteers. No one chose any of those. The fact that Brexit won't be as bad as two of the worst events in UK history, which did not happen by choice has never been any sort of argument for choosing Brexit and the massive risks, and likely downside it involves.

And we need to be quite clear. What is on offer now, if it happens, is a long way from the promises leading Brexiteers made (Johnson and many others) before the referendum where we were provmised cake and eat it, full access to the single market, a "better" deal than we had in the EU.... Worse even than May's deal that the hard Brexiteers rejected. The risks and likely downside have got a lot worse since people had a chance to vote on it. And to cap it all Johnson wants to break international law, breach a critical treaty and lead make any serious deal US (always promised as being a benefit) almost impossible.


Yes.
Are you surprised?

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#363230

Postby SalvorHardin » December 5th, 2020, 5:25 pm

PeterGray wrote:Well, I certainly wouldn't rate my prediction abilities very high. But when the ONS, the BoE and others are all pretty unanimous that even a thin deal will mean 3-4% off GDP for the foreseable future, and people involved in shipping are saying Dover and places can't cope, and the govt has planned for 50,000 new customs officers, who need paying, and most of those are not yet recruited or trained ... then I think the likelihood is firmly on the downside.

In 2016 the Treasury said that if Britain voted to leave the EU, that there would be a recession in the second half with GDP falling by somewhere between 3% and 6%. Instead the economy grew by around 1%.

No surprise there; the consensus macroeconomic forecasts of the economics profession are wrong most of the time, especially regarding Britain and the EU. Leaving the ERM and not joining the Euro were forecast to cause major recessions. ERM exit created a boom whilst keeping sterling had very little effect. Macroeconomic forecasters make Astrologers look credible.

Spending money on 50,000 Customs Officers will increase GDP because it's public spending. Pure Keynesianism. Now it's highly debatable if this is "good spending" but it will nonetheless increase GDP. As will many of the "frictions" generated by our leaving (such as the increasing demand for domestic inputs in preference to imports) Granted, this increase is more due to how GDP is calculated, but it's things like this that get overlooked.

4% off GDP for the long-run says the OBR. They don't say how many years that is, so I'll assume 10 years which is -0.4% a year. Which is well within the margin of error for their one year forecast every year.

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#363234

Postby odysseus2000 » December 5th, 2020, 5:48 pm

Peter Gray
Will it be as bad as Dunkirk or the Blitz. No But that was always one of the most absurd remarks by Brexiteers. No one chose any of those. The fact that Brexit won't be as bad as two of the worst events in UK history, which did not happen by choice has never been any sort of argument for choosing Brexit and the massive risks, and likely downside it involves


As far as I understand the historical record, Dunkirk & the Blitz came about as an act of choice.

The UK chose to stand by the treaty with Poland.

The UK chose not to accept offered Nazi terms, despite intense pressure from many in power to do so, & instead defied them & defended our little island even though there was a world consensus that the UK could not stand against the mite of the German forces.

All the troubles of the Second War could have been avoid, but we choose not to.

I have no idea what would have happened had the UK chosen to accept terms, but I have been to Auscwitz & I can't say that I would not have liked living under Nazi rule.

Had we accepted terms an EC might have emerged & we might have joined it, or Europe might have lived under a Nazi dictatorship with no choice & no EU.

All that happened in 2016 was that we were given another choice. The choice was to leave. I had no clue then that we would not have left 4.5 years later.

I have no clue what will happen now, but I imagine it will not be as good as some think nor as bad as others think.

Regards,

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#369898

Postby odysseus2000 » December 26th, 2020, 6:26 pm

The media have been celebrating the Brexit agreement and the PM has noted the good deal for fishing. So I wondered how good a deal and wondered if there may be some investment opportunities. Looking at the Brexit document, Annex fish.1:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/fi ... eement.pdf

I find that there have been some changes, e.g. 24 Herring currently 88.9% UK, rises to 99.01% by 2025 while the Bluefin Tuna catch (89) is 0.25% for the UK. Generally the UK take has gone up a little, but I can't find any big gains.

Maybe I am misunderstanding the withdrawal agreement and the fishing quotas but as is there doesn't look to be much of an increased UK % take that would justify significant investment in the UK fishing industry.

If anyone understands this industry and believes the UK is getting a very good deal then I would be interested in the rational.

Regards,

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#370024

Postby PeterGray » December 27th, 2020, 9:59 am

It's not a great deal for fishing, but that was never possible if we wanted a deal on the things that matter. But it does represent an increase in the take from UK waters, though as you point out it's not evenly spread. Add in foreign ownership of UK flagged boats, the the impact on UK boats fishing in EU waters (no one seems to talk about this - though it's clearly smaller than the reverse, it's real), no it's not a great deal.

But above all that are the issue of quotas, and why they exist. We have an international responsibility to set quotas to preseve fish stocks, which are much smaller than they were for many key species, Brexit won't change that - just tinker at the edges.

Perhaps a more useful area to think about in terms of investments is the impact on services. Not included in the "deal". Since these make up about 80% of GDP (compared to fishing's 0.07% or so), and are where we at least partly balance our trade deficit in the trade goods that are covered, what happens there looks pretty signficant. Will banks adapt by moving operations (and jobs and taxes) to the EU, or will they just lose out?

This is not the end of Brexit, it's just another phase in what are almost certainly going to be negotiations going on indefinitely, until perhaps in the distant future we rejoin (on standard terms instead of the "cake and eat it" terms we had negotiated for ourselves while a member).

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#370037

Postby NeilW » December 27th, 2020, 10:26 am

SalvorHardin wrote:Spending money on 50,000 Customs Officers will increase GDP because it's public spending. Pure Keynesianism. Now it's highly debatable if this is "good spending" but it will nonetheless increase GDP. As will many of the "frictions" generated by our leaving (such as the increasing demand for domestic inputs in preference to imports) Granted, this increase is more due to how GDP is calculated, but it's things like this that get overlooked.

4% off GDP for the long-run says the OBR. They don't say how many years that is, so I'll assume 10 years which is -0.4% a year. Which is well within the margin of error for their one year forecast every year.


Free from Article 123 of the EU Treaty, the restrictions of the neoliberal view point that is baked into the EU treaty, and the obvious issues it would cause if we had free movement, the UK government can hire all unemployed people in the UK at the living wage without issue.

That puts at least 3% on GDP instantly, and probably more given the level of unemployment thanks to Covid. It would also be a sensible thing for the furlough scheme to turn into since it frees up private businesses from PAYE administration, and allows them to 'rightsize' their operations without worrying whether their (ex)-employees can find another job. And of course because it injects money directly and only into places that need it - while backing off in places that recover - it means firms can invest securely knowing that demand for products will be sustained whatever the wobbles.

And if the private sector doesn't like it, then all they have to do to make it stop is hire people and put them to work.

We are about to see a change of viewpoint. The old idea that some central banker can control an economy by doing a Wizard of Oz impression once a month and threatening to move one single lever is coming to an end. It never did work, and certainly won't in the future.

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#370051

Postby Dod101 » December 27th, 2020, 11:08 am

No one can argue about foreign ownership of UK flagged fishing vessels because that comes about through the sale of a boat with a UK quota to the highest bidder and if that happens to be a Dane or a Frenchman so be it. I know that some do very well out of trading quotas rather than troubling with the actual fishing. But it certainly looks like a long and modest progress to increase the UK's rights/quotas.

I am a bit confused about financial services. If it were a real disaster I would have expected the financial services industry to have raised merry hell by now. They of course have been pragmatically preparing for Brexit for some time by opening offices in EU countries such as an office in Dublin or Frankfurt or wherever and I assume that gives them some rights but I wish I knew a bit more about it.

Dod

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Re: UK trade policy post Brexit, PM's view

#370209

Postby supremetwo » December 27th, 2020, 9:04 pm

Dod101 wrote:No one can argue about foreign ownership of UK flagged fishing vessels because that comes about through the sale of a boat with a UK quota to the highest bidder and if that happens to be a Dane or a Frenchman so be it. I know that some do very well out of trading quotas rather than troubling with the actual fishing. But it certainly looks like a long and modest progress to increase the UK's rights/quotas.

I am a bit confused about financial services. If it were a real disaster I would have expected the financial services industry to have raised merry hell by now. They of course have been pragmatically preparing for Brexit for some time by opening offices in EU countries such as an office in Dublin or Frankfurt or wherever and I assume that gives them some rights but I wish I knew a bit more about it.

Dod

If it makes the UK financial services industry more-competitive, that will be welcome.

In the past, our company was insured via an Australian provider because, as now, Lloyds of London (in much need of modernisation and increased efficiency) was hiking premiums.

For far too long, many employed in the UK financial services industry have been at the top of all salary scales (and with large bonuses on top) with no incentive whatsoever to reduce their internal costs.


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