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Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Wuffle
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#350691

Postby Wuffle » October 26th, 2020, 10:42 am

HI TMB,

Funnily enough I had seen it somewhere and thought 'what is ABB?'.
A quick skid through places I might have looked brought up HINT, Henderson International Income Trust.
Almost certainly too watered down for your purposes but thanks anyway!

W.

Howard
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#350738

Postby Howard » October 26th, 2020, 12:50 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Several folk have told me that they had done well this year and had made a few 100 basis points above bank rates. I smiled and didn't say that return was very poor, at least compared to the >120% I have made this year (and I am sure I should have done better), but such folk are often pillars of the community, have nice leased car and all the trappings of a job, but no clue about almost anything and are extremely small c conservative and lazy. Others have not spoken about their returns and seem to have had very bad years.

As with all things in life, some folk put little in, but find some way into a well paid job, others of equal quality are less lucky, others work very hard and lady luck still does not smile on them, while others work hard and profit from it.

The beauty of the Lemon is that it allows mostly polite discussion between posters spread across the generations and across the wealth and education spectrum. If people use it wisely it can be very valuable, but a lot get so caught up in emotions that they fail to grow and do not reap the blessing of the Lemon.

Regards,


You are right, Ody. It's what you put into life that really counts.

Reflecting on your post, as well as percentage gain, I guess another way of assessing the success of one’s investment style is to measure how much one is able to invest in human capital by giving back.

Knowing you gained a PhD, and have been very successful in macro investing, I imagine you are now in the nice position of having surplus capital and being able to invest substantially in the youngsters who are following you and pursuing their research goals.

It’s interesting to chat to really successful investors who are able to plough back six or seven figure sums into the institutions which helped them on their way.

I can recommend it. Nothing in investing compares with the (macro investment) pleasure of backing talent and watching bright young men and women developing a successful career.

regards

Howard

TheMotorcycleBoy
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#350907

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » October 27th, 2020, 5:24 am

This thread truly meanders more than the Mississippi.

TUK020
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#350944

Postby TUK020 » October 27th, 2020, 9:18 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:This thread truly meanders more than the Mississippi.

and that's a tiddler.

'Musk endeavours' meanders more that Valles Marineris

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#350977

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » October 27th, 2020, 10:53 am

TUK020 wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:This thread truly meanders more than the Mississippi.

and that's a tiddler.

'Musk endeavours' meanders more that Valles Marineris

Leo Tolstoy - eat yer heart out.

redsturgeon
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#351261

Postby redsturgeon » October 28th, 2020, 10:05 am

Is it coincidental that the FTSE seems to be going into a decline as the Covid number are heading skywards at the moment?

Did anyone really thing the dip was over?

Wither the V shaped recovery now/

John

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#351269

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » October 28th, 2020, 10:39 am

redsturgeon wrote:Is it coincidental that the FTSE seems to be going into a decline as the Covid number are heading skywards at the moment?

Did anyone really thing the dip was over?

Wither the V shaped recovery now/

John

What I find more interesting, is comparision of the SP500 and the FTSE350, over 12 months.

The FTSE350 now looks decidedly L shaped, the SP500 is more like a V, but really we don't quite have the required alphabetical symbols to completely capture it.

redsturgeon
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#351273

Postby redsturgeon » October 28th, 2020, 10:45 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Is it coincidental that the FTSE seems to be going into a decline as the Covid number are heading skywards at the moment?

Did anyone really thing the dip was over?

Wither the V shaped recovery now/

John

What I find more interesting, is comparision of the SP500 and the FTSE350, over 12 months.

The FTSE350 now looks decidedly L shaped, the SP500 is more like a V, but really we don't quite have the required alphabetical symbols to completely capture it.


I think it is a "K"

John

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#351275

Postby odysseus2000 » October 28th, 2020, 10:55 am

redsturgeon wrote:Is it coincidental that the FTSE seems to be going into a decline as the Covid number are heading skywards at the moment?

Did anyone really thing the dip was over?

Wither the V shaped recovery now/

John


There are several factors: Brexit US elections are two big themes along with many smaller rivers brought upon by politicians & covid.

There has been weakness in the US markets that look more like election fears than anything and this could lead to another bout of volatility especially if there is no clear winner on election night and it drags on as in 2000.

Money was made in bucket loads after Trump won four years ago, first on the short side and then on the long side. Things are setting up for a similar volatility opportunities for market players who like to trade this kind of thing imho.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#351300

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » October 28th, 2020, 11:53 am

redsturgeon wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Is it coincidental that the FTSE seems to be going into a decline as the Covid number are heading skywards at the moment?

Did anyone really thing the dip was over?

Wither the V shaped recovery now/

John

What I find more interesting, is comparision of the SP500 and the FTSE350, over 12 months.

The FTSE350 now looks decidedly L shaped, the SP500 is more like a V, but really we don't quite have the required alphabetical symbols to completely capture it.


I think it is a "K"

John

I don't think the SP500 chart over 12 months looks anything like a K !

johnhemming
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#351305

Postby johnhemming » October 28th, 2020, 11:55 am

The market today looks a bit like skittish people running for the hills.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#351735

Postby odysseus2000 » October 29th, 2020, 3:19 pm

US markets maybe skittish, but the US economy is recovering well:

https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/statu ... 75840?s=20

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#351738

Postby johnhemming » October 29th, 2020, 3:33 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:US markets maybe skittish, but the US economy is recovering well:

https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/statu ... 75840?s=20

Regards,

The figures on GDP are calculated differently in different countries.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#351885

Postby johnhemming » October 30th, 2020, 7:44 am

Here is a comparison of London to the North using RCGP data
Image

Note that earlier in the year you should include possibles as well, but now things have stabilised I have only included probable.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#352306

Postby odysseus2000 » October 31st, 2020, 8:12 pm

Interesting press conference by the PM with nothing to happen while the politician have their debates, then a lockdown sans education.

I can not see how this will not blight Christmas business as so many venues are forbidden from opening.

It is difficult for me to see how leaving Schools open will not lead to continued spread among the pupils and then among the families and then any they come into contact with. It would seem far more sensible to test all pupils everyday and isolate any who are positive and at the same time ensure that any so suspended have all the e-teaching equipment and support as needed. This still looks a likely outcome to me and to be very bullish for Zoom and e-working equipment suppliers.

I have so far not be able to find out who will be the biggest beneficiaries of the rapid testing. It seems probable that some will make a fortune out of this. Any comments?

Who is making all the money from the discovered best medicines, or are there no such thing. What I found confusing about the press conference was the assertion that everything was progressing as in Spring. Surely there is now a greater understanding of how to treat this virus and as a such the danger to the NHS ought to be lower. The message I got was that nothing has changed in the medical response and that I find difficult to understand.

There is a lot of optimism about vaccines, but the messages I am getting is that all of this is bluster with no vaccine looking that promising and one sees that in the equity prices of the potential vaccine suppliers, not ramping, often falling.

As things now are I do not expect any improvements till either some new medicines are deployed or we pass the equinox on the 21st of March and the weather gets better. I am now assuming that furlow will have to run till March and that unemployment will rise as business throw in the towel.

If I am right then only the business that supply essential covid stuff (bios, pharma, e working) are going to see growth, everything else is going to contract and the national debt can be expected to grow by as much again as it did in the first lock down.

It would also not surprise me if there is some kind of revolt in the government. The current line that every other nation is struggling and so the Uk must too, won't wash as the governments job is to make things better and that could spur trouble, potentially ousting the PM or causing him to sack cabinet members seen to be under performing. If there is any of this it will likely hurt the £ (cable), making imports more costly, but exports cheaper. Meanwhile there could be troubles over Brexit.

Should Biden win next week, that may also hurt cable as the Biden whitehouse is likely less friendly than the Trump one.

Lots of negatives as I see things and yet the UK equity markets have been quite robust.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#352859

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 3rd, 2020, 8:01 am

Some stuff about robotics:

Walmart Inc. WMT 1.19% has ended its effort to use roving robots in store aisles to keep track of its inventory, reversing a yearslong push to automate the task with the hulking machines after finding during the coronavirus pandemic that humans can help get similar results.

The retail giant has ended its contract with robotics company Bossa Nova Robotics Inc., with which it joined over the past five years to gradually add six-foot-tall inventory-scanning machines to stores. Walmart had made the robots a frequent topic of conversation at media and investor events in recent years, hoping the technology could help reduce labor costs and increase sales by making sure products are kept in stock.

Walmart ended the partnership because it found different, sometimes simpler solutions that proved just as useful, said people familiar with the situation. As more shoppers flock to online delivery and pickup because of Covid-19 concerns, Walmart has more workers walking the aisles frequently to collect online orders, gleaning new data on inventory problems, said some of these people. The retailer is pursuing ways to use those workers to monitor product amounts and locations, as well as other automation technology, according to the people familiar with the situation.

In addition, Walmart U.S. chief executive John Furner has concerns about how shoppers react to seeing a robot working in a store, said one of these people.

Walmart said in January that the Bossa Nova robots would be in around 1,000 of its 4,700 U.S. stores. Over the past two years the retailer has said it would bring more automation to stores, characterizing the machines as robot “sidekicks” for store workers akin to R2-D2 from the “Star Wars” movies. The Bossa Nova robots were in about 500 stores when the partnership ended, said a Walmart spokeswoman.

“We learned a lot about how technology can assist associates, make jobs easier and provide a better customer experience,” she said. “We will continue testing new technologies and investing in our own processes and apps to best understand and track our inventory and help move products to our shelves as quickly as we can.”

Walmart continues to use other robots in stores, such as floor scrubbers that move through aisles alone.

Bossa Nova laid off around 50% of its staff after the contract with Walmart ended, according to a person familiar with the situation, who said the robotics firm is pivoting toward new clients and software ventures. The venture-capital-backed company was spun out from Carnegie Mellon University’s Robotics Institute in 2005. Walmart told Bossa Nova, “We see an improvement in stores with the robots, but we don’t see enough of an improvement” in revenue and other metrics, said this person.

Retailers benefit from having a more accurate view of their inventory because sales rise when retailers can reduce out-of-stock items, keeping more products available when customers want to buy them. It also can provide a more precise picture of inventory for people who order online for pickup and delivery, services that are becoming more popular during the pandemic.


from
https://www.wsj.com/articles/walmart-sh ... _lead_pos4

Matt

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#352889

Postby odysseus2000 » November 3rd, 2020, 9:50 am

Walmart may be having troubles with robots, but Amazon seem to have them working well enough in a warehouse:

https://youtu.be/TUx-ljgB-5Q

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#353007

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 3rd, 2020, 2:13 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Walmart may be having troubles with robots, but Amazon seem to have them working well enough in a warehouse:

https://youtu.be/TUx-ljgB-5Q

Regards,

Probably easier in a well organised w/house.

But, regardless reading the WSJ article about Walmart, one would assume the robots will be back doing the on-shelve inventory checks, once they start to use robot shelf fillers. The only issue (currently) being duplication of effort, i.e. the human staff can do inventory check whilst refilling. WMT do seem happy with robots elsewhile - e.g. for cleaning. I believe the article does note this.

Matt

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#353032

Postby odysseus2000 » November 3rd, 2020, 2:56 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Walmart may be having troubles with robots, but Amazon seem to have them working well enough in a warehouse:

https://youtu.be/TUx-ljgB-5Q

Regards,

Probably easier in a well organised w/house.

But, regardless reading the WSJ article about Walmart, one would assume the robots will be back doing the on-shelve inventory checks, once they start to use robot shelf fillers. The only issue (currently) being duplication of effort, i.e. the human staff can do inventory check whilst refilling. WMT do seem happy with robots elsewhile - e.g. for cleaning. I believe the article does note this.

Matt


I recall reading a while ago that it would soon be possible to determine the entire inventory of a warehouse in volume, location and rate of change via radio frequency tags with out needing anyone to go and check. Whether this is potential reality or incorrect I am not sure.

Apple are apparently close to launching a key find tag using RF to find any tagged item and one can already find ones iPhone via ones watch, but how granular this can be I am not sure. The rf id industry is believed to be worth about $12b this year:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio-fre ... tification

I have often thought that reliable locks that could be opened purely by rf id from a carried or implanted device would sell well given how bulky and easily lost keys are.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#354740

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2020, 11:30 am

According to the SUN, Tesco are blocking sales of many items:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13143404/ ... rce=pushly

Kind of trying to figure out the implications of this.

If more people switch to on-line does this suggest that the sales/store will be permanently hit leading to less staff and some uncertain calculus over loss of staff over heads, v loss of selling from large square foot store.

Must be a huge win for Amazon with Prime as they have some of the fastest delivery services.

All of this may collapse, but for now it does look like this will be in place to early December, unless Government/Parliament does a u-turn.

After this is over will people stick with on-line or return to bricks and mortar. I am thinking many might stick to on-line.

Regards,


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