Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Forum rules
This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
johnhemming
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3858
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:13 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 609 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295551

Postby johnhemming » March 29th, 2020, 9:32 pm

zico wrote:The antibody test will be crucial in informing where Covid-19 is on the range -very widely spread but most people get no symptoms, down to - not widespread at all but very few people have no symptoms. Paradoxically, the more widespread it has been, the better.

A reasonably reliable antibody test will be a gamechanger.

What it would likely cause is people wanting to get the disease so they can be certificated as having had it (if not in a vulnerable group)

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295554

Postby dealtn » March 29th, 2020, 9:51 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
johnhemming wrote:The report talks about Italy having a big cash economy. These are people who were not on the unemployment, but were outside the tax and benefits system. Hence the situation leaves them destitute. As far as I can tell (apart from people who are not entitled to state support) households in the UK should be getting something from somewhere in order to pay for food. Furthermore the furlough cash and other support will come through at some stage. (as in employers may pay this month and get the cash for that in April).


The UK is thought to have a 10% (£150b in 2014) shadow economy:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ow-economy

If this number is accurate and it is now shut down, it is not hard to imagine that some folk will get into trouble not unlike what is happening in Southern Italy.

Even for the folk who are legal in all things and registered etc, there is going to a hole in their accounts until they get some money. A lot of people, in my experience, do not have much in the way of savings to fall back on.

Regards,


I think we have different opinions on what is meant by "helicopter money" in that case. As has been said above the benefits system, augmented by such policies as "furlough" etc. provide for those that no longer have a legitimate income. It seems that you are suggesting an additional source of money should be made available for the small section of society that chooses not to have a legitimate declared income. Or have I misunderstood?

johnhemming
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3858
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:13 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 609 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295558

Postby johnhemming » March 29th, 2020, 10:06 pm

This is really a debate about italy. I did once deal with a complex case from italy which is why I know some aspects about italy. The regulatory system is such that marginal jobs are not declared because otherwise they probably would not exist (home care and things like that). The uk is different.

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6362
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1530 times
Been thanked: 959 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295568

Postby odysseus2000 » March 29th, 2020, 11:03 pm

dealtn
I think we have different opinions on what is meant by "helicopter money" in that case. As has been said above the benefits system, augmented by such policies as "furlough" etc. provide for those that no longer have a legitimate income. It seems that you are suggesting an additional source of money should be made available for the small section of society that chooses not to have a legitimate declared income. Or have I misunderstood?


What we have is a big shock to the financial system of very many workers that has not happened as far as I know before.

There will certainly be help in the by and by and lots of new claimants for benefits.

I am not sure what happens in the mean time. The end of this month is the restart of the poll tax payments and there are endless utility bills along with food and such that everyone is required to pay.

For folk who had regular jobs and savings, these outgoing will be easily dealt with.

I am just not sure how many will be put in great financial difficulties by this mandated stay at home policy and think that some kind of helicopter drop would be a positive in averting the immediate consequences of this shock.

As best I can tell the chancellor is not currently planning a helicopter drop and he should have a better idea of individuals situations than I do, but it would not surprise me if there is some serious civil unrest, including a rise in burglary and thefts by a section of the population who suddenly find themselves with neither income nor savings but continued over heads. Whether a burglar can find folk to take what he might steal might defuse the temptation to take goods, making a rise in muggings and similar robberies more likely.

Regards,

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8208
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 913 times
Been thanked: 4096 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295575

Postby tjh290633 » March 29th, 2020, 11:12 pm

It used to be well known that in Italy you ran 3 sets of books. One for the tax man, one for the Mafia, and a proper set for yourself.

TJH

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10023 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295594

Postby Itsallaguess » March 30th, 2020, 5:28 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
I am just not sure how many will be put in great financial difficulties by this mandated stay at home policy and think that some kind of helicopter drop would be a positive in averting the immediate consequences of this shock.

As best I can tell the chancellor is not currently planning a helicopter drop and he should have a better idea of individuals situations than I do, but it would not surprise me if there is some serious civil unrest, including a rise in burglary and thefts by a section of the population who suddenly find themselves with neither income nor savings but continued over heads.

Whether a burglar can find folk to take what he might steal might defuse the temptation to take goods, making a rise in muggings and similar robberies more likely.


Crime is actually down considerably in the UK -

The coronavirus crisis has led to a drop in recorded crime, by as much as 20% in some areas.

Offences such as burglary and violence were down last week compared with the previous seven days, after Boris Johnson made his first request for people to stay home on the Monday.

The fall this week could be even larger after the prime minister changed his pleas for social distancing into an order to stay inside.

In one force, Durham, rated by inspectors as one of the best in England, the drop in crime was 20%. Officers recorded an average of 130 crimes a day, as opposed to an average of 165 the previous week.

Stephen White, acting police and crime commissioner for Durham, said: “Some people rely on shoplifting to fund their drug habit. That’s harder as the shops are closed.”


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... n-recorded

Regarding your assertion that the UK Chancellor needs to step in now and start releasing funds to people who might need it, I feel fairly certain that there was something on the news regarding this over the past couple of weeks...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295624

Postby dealtn » March 30th, 2020, 9:37 am

odysseus2000 wrote:I am just not sure how many will be put in great financial difficulties by this mandated stay at home policy and think that some kind of helicopter drop would be a positive in averting the immediate consequences of this shock.




What is this "helicopter drop" policy you keep referring to?

(and why do you think we still have the "poll tax"? Not that we properly had one, but it was replaced in 1993!)

johnhemming
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3858
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:13 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 609 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295631

Postby johnhemming » March 30th, 2020, 9:57 am

When I did benefits casework I proritised benefits work for people who were actually destitute. This was very rare, but did happen (normally as result of the non-habitual residency rules which at times surprised people returning home). We should not see that many people being desititute. It will take a little longer to sort out more for people. (like getting the economy running again).

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10023 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295633

Postby Itsallaguess » March 30th, 2020, 10:05 am

johnhemming wrote:
When I did benefits casework I proritised benefits work for people who were actually destitute. This was very rare, but did happen (normally as result of the non-habitual residency rules which at times surprised people returning home).

We should not see that many people being destitute. It will take a little longer to sort out more for people. (like getting the economy running again).


There was a section in the Guardian the other day that was discussing the big push to get homeless people off the street, which clearly gave an indication as to the priority given to this section of society at the present time, and given the unique risks presented to them with the current pandemic -

In the UK, Stuart, a street outreach worker from Brighton, says his job has changed dramatically since the coronavirus outbreak as every homeless person has to be indoors by this weekend.

While the threshold for housing people was once high, local authorities are now able to get accommodation in 30 minutes, he said. “Now, it’s all shifted and they are trying to negotiate with landlords and hotel owners to get people into accommodation.


Source - https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... 215f6fd9f8

I really don't think that the sort of UK scare-mongering that Ody seems to be pursuing is helpful.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6362
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1530 times
Been thanked: 959 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295634

Postby odysseus2000 » March 30th, 2020, 10:06 am

Msft say over 700% increase in use of their cloud services:

https://www.thurrott.com/cloud/233710/m ... ices-usage

Regards,

johnhemming
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3858
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:13 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 609 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295637

Postby johnhemming » March 30th, 2020, 10:14 am

Itsallaguess wrote:While the threshold for housing people was once high, local authorities are now able to get accommodation in 30 minutes

I got some roofless people housed lateish last year, but most of the beggars who beg locally are housed. We saw a couple who were really sleeping on the streets so we sorted that out.

A lot of the people sleeping on the streets more generally tend to not qualify for benefits. The rules on that may have shifted in the last month or so. However, in the long time I would expect the habitual residency rules to be reinstated.

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6362
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1530 times
Been thanked: 959 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295648

Postby odysseus2000 » March 30th, 2020, 11:10 am

For those unfamiliar with the term Helicopter money, see Wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money

and yes I do know that the poll tax was replaced with the community charge, but poll tax has more of a ring to it and it is still in common even if incorrect usage and the payments for the charge begin at the end of this month, after the usual 3 month holiday. I was told that the payment was structured this way as March is the month when a lot of the business that have seen little turnover since Christmas, start to see more punters and have more money for the local councils.

My own view is that everyone in the UK is getting too complacent about how the UK populous will react to the lock down. Hopefully I am wrong and everything will run like clockwork and there will be a smooth and steady return to normality. Various folk who are paid the minimum wage have told me that they have lost all their income and are concerned about what benefits and support they will get and when it will arrive. One guy was saying he was told he will not get anything till June and was worried about his rent and other overheads, but not worried enough as of yet to give up his cigarettes.

I have no idea. I see all these articles in the media and the ones posted here all suggesting that everything is fine. The many new people who pass by at over 2 m distance, walking dogs etc all seem happy and untroubled. Various gangs of youths have found mischief to amuse themselves with, last week torching a huge pile of pallets that were being collected for the local bonfire and according to my pony's groom throwing stones at her when she walked her dog in the park. The number of cars on the road has greatly reduced, there are fewer vapour trails in the sky and I still seem to be able to get most things that I want.

The BMA are saying there are shortages:

https://twitter.com/TheBMA/status/12445 ... 76736?s=20

but the BMA are a trade union (yes I know they hate that title and prefer trade association) and are regular complainers about their members conditions etc.

The ventilator shortage seems to have become yesterdays news.

The collected measurement data, statistics and disease time lines are still so full of uncertainties as to make me not trust any of them. Churchill in his History of the Second War, describes how both the RAF and the Luftwaffe gave out misleading combat statistics during the Battle of Britain and so I expect the numbers coming out of governments to be suspect and to be as optimistic as possible.

Markets remain volatile, I short when things go down, cover when they stop and sometimes go long. Whether we have seen the bottom or whether we have just had a good bear market rally I do not know, nor does anyone else.

I also do not know if there have been so many changes to behaviour that we will smoothly return to the pre-c19 conditions at the end of this whenever that is or whether companies will have found that operating more over the net increases margins by reducing the number of staff needed, emulating the Amazon business model etc.

I expect that distance learning will not go away and that many of the Private Schools Higher Education colleges/Universities etc will find that a lot of their business does not return.

However, the consensus is that all will be well and that we will soon be back to normal and I find that the most disturbing of all things associated with this pandemic.

Regards,

colin
Lemon Slice
Posts: 663
Joined: December 10th, 2016, 7:16 pm
Has thanked: 24 times
Been thanked: 114 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295652

Postby colin » March 30th, 2020, 11:13 am

johnhemming wrote:The report talks about Italy having a big cash economy. These are people who were not on the unemployment, but were outside the tax and benefits system. Hence the situation leaves them destitute. As far as I can tell (apart from people who are not entitled to state support) households in the UK should be getting something from somewhere in order to pay for food. Furthermore the furlough cash and other support will come through at some stage. (as in employers may pay this month and get the cash for that in April).

I would not be surprised if many people in Southern Italy are dependant on criminaly imposed 'protection' taxes on businesses which no longer have any turnover.

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10023 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295656

Postby Itsallaguess » March 30th, 2020, 11:26 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
However, the consensus is that all will be well and that we will soon be back to normal and I find that the most disturbing of all things associated with this pandemic.


Have you been reading Trump's tweets again?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295668

Postby dealtn » March 30th, 2020, 12:20 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:For those unfamiliar with the term Helicopter money, see Wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money



Yes I am familiar with the term, having an economics background, but was (seriously) asking you what you meant by it! I assume you have read the Wikipedia article you quote, wherein it is obvious it means many different things to different people.

Given it is you calling for it here I wanted to know what it is that actually, in practical deliverable terms, you are wanting to see.

Without quoting entire passages from your post, they are full of "I have no idea...", and "I don't know...", yet seem to be clear in wanting some form of solution that isn't already being delivered, and I am just trying to tease out of you what you want.

The reality is this situation is unprecedented, and fast-moving, and being considered by numerous advisors to governments across the globe. What do you think they aren't considering as potential solutions across their many fields of expertise, that you, or I, can seriously add to?

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6362
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1530 times
Been thanked: 959 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295686

Postby odysseus2000 » March 30th, 2020, 1:02 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:For those unfamiliar with the term Helicopter money, see Wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money



Yes I am familiar with the term, having an economics background, but was (seriously) asking you what you meant by it! I assume you have read the Wikipedia article you quote, wherein it is obvious it means many different things to different people.

Given it is you calling for it here I wanted to know what it is that actually, in practical deliverable terms, you are wanting to see.

Without quoting entire passages from your post, they are full of "I have no idea...", and "I don't know...", yet seem to be clear in wanting some form of solution that isn't already being delivered, and I am just trying to tease out of you what you want.

The reality is this situation is unprecedented, and fast-moving, and being considered by numerous advisors to governments across the globe. What do you think they aren't considering as potential solutions across their many fields of expertise, that you, or I, can seriously add to?


I am looking at things from a trading/investment perspective, trying to work out what the politicians will do and how I can make money out of their decision.

Helicopter money would to me, mean dropping money into every adults bank account as a antidote to the statement: "I haven't got any money for..."

Clearly there are logistic problems with this, not least that some folk don't have bank accounts and also that many folk don't need anything at all and will resent money that they may see as causing extra long term debt, say £1k per adult, means a drop of something like, after taking out all those under 19,

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281 ... on-by-age/

66-15.58 =£50.42 billion.

Will they do this and If they do who will benefit?

The consensus now seems to be that they will use more targeted benefits, but how much and who gets it and who does not get it, and the timescale is far from clear to me.

What then are the investment consequences?

If there is no drop will some business go under?

If there is a drop will some business make money?

In this fog of war I am looking for what might happen and how to profit from it.

I am trying to put myself into the position of the Chancellor, Home Secretary and the PM and figure out what forces are shaping their decisions and then what they might do before they do it so as to position, if possible, for what is the most likely outcome.

So I look at the situation as I see it now and with historical perspective and put forward what I think might be done and then everyone else either likes or opposes the idea and from that I have something of the same situation that the big guys in their cabinet meetings have.

All the cabinet members will have their ideas influenced by their constituents and other lobby groups etc and from this melting pot policies will emerge.

I have no idea how else to try and game this situation as a trader/investor.

No doubt other posters here have other ideas ranging from do nothing through some sniper targeted approach to... Anyone with good ideas please post.

Regards,

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295689

Postby dealtn » March 30th, 2020, 1:10 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:For those unfamiliar with the term Helicopter money, see Wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money



Yes I am familiar with the term, having an economics background, but was (seriously) asking you what you meant by it! I assume you have read the Wikipedia article you quote, wherein it is obvious it means many different things to different people.

Given it is you calling for it here I wanted to know what it is that actually, in practical deliverable terms, you are wanting to see.

Without quoting entire passages from your post, they are full of "I have no idea...", and "I don't know...", yet seem to be clear in wanting some form of solution that isn't already being delivered, and I am just trying to tease out of you what you want.

The reality is this situation is unprecedented, and fast-moving, and being considered by numerous advisors to governments across the globe. What do you think they aren't considering as potential solutions across their many fields of expertise, that you, or I, can seriously add to?


I am looking at things from a trading/investment perspective, trying to work out what the politicians will do and how I can make money out of their decision.



But you're not, as this recent quote suggests (many more available!).

"This sort of Italian unrest, as shown in this 2 min 58 second video, is why I think we need helicopter money now before things get to this level in the UK:"

You have been clearly stating what you think "needs" to happen. Now you are claiming you are "trying to work out what the politicians will do..."

Given this board is about Macro and Global, rather than trading/investment I thought we were engaged in a discussion about what policy responses we thought were relevant, and why.

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10023 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295691

Postby Itsallaguess » March 30th, 2020, 1:20 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
I am looking at things from a trading/investment perspective, trying to work out what the politicians will do and how I can make money out of their decision.


But you're not, as this recent quote suggests (many more available!).

"This sort of Italian unrest, as shown in this 2 min 58 second video, is why I think we need helicopter money now before things get to this level in the UK:"

You have been clearly stating what you think "needs" to happen. Now you are claiming you are "trying to work out what the politicians will do..."

Given this board is about Macro and Global, rather than trading/investment I thought we were engaged in a discussion about what policy responses we thought were relevant, and why.


But why demand a new 'helicopter policy response' now, when the UK Chancellor has already deployed a huge range of targeted responses that cover businesses, employees, and also now the self-employed, as well as boosting existing benefits...

Am I missing something clearly obvious here?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6362
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1530 times
Been thanked: 959 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295693

Postby odysseus2000 » March 30th, 2020, 1:24 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
Yes I am familiar with the term, having an economics background, but was (seriously) asking you what you meant by it! I assume you have read the Wikipedia article you quote, wherein it is obvious it means many different things to different people.

Given it is you calling for it here I wanted to know what it is that actually, in practical deliverable terms, you are wanting to see.

Without quoting entire passages from your post, they are full of "I have no idea...", and "I don't know...", yet seem to be clear in wanting some form of solution that isn't already being delivered, and I am just trying to tease out of you what you want.

The reality is this situation is unprecedented, and fast-moving, and being considered by numerous advisors to governments across the globe. What do you think they aren't considering as potential solutions across their many fields of expertise, that you, or I, can seriously add to?


I am looking at things from a trading/investment perspective, trying to work out what the politicians will do and how I can make money out of their decision.



But you're not, as this recent quote suggests (many more available!).

"This sort of Italian unrest, as shown in this 2 min 58 second video, is why I think we need helicopter money now before things get to this level in the UK:"

You have been clearly stating what you think "needs" to happen. Now you are claiming you are "trying to work out what the politicians will do..."

Given this board is about Macro and Global, rather than trading/investment I thought we were engaged in a discussion about what policy responses we thought were relevant, and why.


The added title to the thread by a MOD was (macro investment aspects only)

Yes, I am saying what I think should happen. I am not saying that they will, just what I think and other posters are putting out arguments as to why they won't, such as the Italian state being troubled by corruption etc.

This is how I try and get a feel for what will go be done.

e.g. I was talking with the owner of several units and he was troubled by whether he was going to get this quarters rent. If he is typical and if his fears that he isn't going to get the rent as all this tenants are on 3 month pre-payment, then the likely hood is that banks who are funding these kinds of developments and to whom the unit holder must pay interest are going to be in trouble. If there is a helicopter drop of some sort, maybe he gets his rent, the banks get their interest and banks are more longs than shorts etc etc.

The only way I know how to game this kind of stuff is to gather as much information as possible and to then try and work out who will benefit, who will suffer etc.

There is of course a human tragedy to all of this but here I am trying to figure the investment/trading opportunities and many will find this kind of thought abhorrent and I understand where they are coming from, but it is what the politicians will be doing as they formulate policy, at least in my understanding. If you think they are doing other stuff then please post.

Regards,

colin
Lemon Slice
Posts: 663
Joined: December 10th, 2016, 7:16 pm
Has thanked: 24 times
Been thanked: 114 times

Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#295698

Postby colin » March 30th, 2020, 1:33 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
The only way I know how to game this kind of stuff is to gather as much information as possible and to then try and work out who will benefit, who will suffer etc.


Regards,

Oh I get it, you are a hedge fund manager asking people on the internet what to trade! I always wondered how such people formulated their strategy.


Return to “Coronavirus Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests