Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

[PeterGray]

Councils are milking this pandemic for as much as they can.

Nonsense. Council are facing big losses of income as a result of covid - loss of car park charges, entrance fees to museums, leisure centres etc, which still have to be maintained. Plus additional directly covid realted costs, not all of which may be covered by govt.

All that on top of losses of around 50% in central govt grant over the past 10 years, many are in a very bad state financially, with little or no reserves before covid.

If they can "milk" covid to get a bit more of the essential funding they need, good on them - but the odds are slight.

[dealtn]

dealtn
Even though you appear reluctant to say it, I will take it as an admission that you are now saying Councils are somewhere on the spectrum between "most affected" and "least affected then", in contradiction to your earlier claim.

But you still appear to be unwilling to admit that some Councils will be "shuttering" some of their services, and importantly some workers won't be keeping their jobs. Furthermore some of the private sector companies to whom "Government" subcontract work to, either through outsourcing or simply buying their commercial services will also suffer from the deterioration in Government finances.

If you think "landlords" are exempt from this process too, and it is only commercial tenants that are unable to pay rent, having "Government" as a tenant doesn't exempt you either. The media has been quite prominent, at least in London, about City Hall being potentially withdrawn from by the Mayor of London to save rent.

You can make as many claims as you like about particular private sector companies having difficulties, but that doesn't make it true that they alone are feeling the effects of this economic downturn. I could name hundreds of companies in difficulties, and personally know of many businessmen making decisions about how many, and who, to make unemployed, but instead of such focussing on the "Micro" it is also important to focus on the "Macro" - especially on this Board! - and acknowledge that the Public Sector isn't immune from the Economic cycle, and that is true in both directions.

You are being far too influence by the media and what they report.

Councils are milking this pandemic for as much as they can.

Sure if they have folk they don't like they will be finding ways to fire them and sure they are grandstanding about all the things they might do, or as they say "have to do." It is however, all about negotiations and getting the most money from central government.

When all of this is over the Councils will remain more or less as they are, some services might get trimmed, others grown, but overall nothing much will happen because they are all funded by taxation.

The same is not true about private business where there is no taxation backup.

I have seen this stuff play out through all the recessions etc that I have witnessed. Yes, opposition politicians get up and say how services have been decimated etc, but nothing much changes for Councils, whereas private business do disappear.

Regards,

For your info I have many friends and family across Private sector, Public sectors, academia and the media. I doubt I am overly influenced by any particular section.

Same old story. Unwilling to even concede an inch of ground when presented with facts and experience from others.

Pointless engaging with you. I would have thought that, like others across this site, you would be interested in a bit of educating and knowledge discovery, but clearly not. I am open to learning here, and have done on many occasions. I recently asked you on a different board for some knowledge on something you clearly are more aware of than I am. It's not difficult to admit when your knowledge is inferior and ask for assistance.

Others I'm sure can see the difference in approaches some make to discussing matters.

I can't see the point in you posting on a discussion board if you aren't open to discussion, but it's your time I suppose.

[odysseus2000]

Councils are milking this pandemic for as much as they can.

Nonsense. Council are facing big losses of income as a result of covid - loss of car park charges, entrance fees to museums, leisure centres etc, which still have to be maintained. Plus additional directly covid realted costs, not all of which may be covered by govt.

All that on top of losses of around 50% in central govt grant over the past 10 years, many are in a very bad state financially, with little or no reserves before covid.

If they can "milk" covid to get a bit more of the essential funding they need, good on them - but the odds are slight.

The folk I know in Councils all treat this as a game as does central government.

There will be excessive tales of bad things, closing this, closing that and then in the by and by some solution will be found and the Council staff will get bigger and new equipment will come.

There is nothing new what so ever in all of this. I have seen it happen dozens of times and in all cases things have carried on as they have been.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
For your info I have many friends and family across Private sector, Public sectors, academia and the media. I doubt I am overly influenced by any particular section.

Same old story. Unwilling to even concede an inch of ground when presented with facts and experience from others.

Pointless engaging with you. I would have thought that, like others across this site, you would be interested in a bit of educating and knowledge discovery, but clearly not. I am open to learning here, and have done on many occasions. I recently asked you on a different board for some knowledge on something you clearly are more aware of than I am. It's not difficult to admit when your knowledge is inferior and ask for assistance.

Others I'm sure can see the difference in approaches some make to discussing matters.

I can't see the point in you posting on a discussion board if you aren't open to discussion, but it's your time I suppose.

The issue is that you are sure you are right and that I am wrong.

I have studied financial things for a long time and I have come to the conclusion that most of what is broadcast, printed and posted on social media is un-related to the reality of the situation and by following it an investor will get wrong roaded and make expensive mistakes. This also applies to most educational courses on business etc. Most of them are given by folk who are professional teachers, not investors and so they spout on about stuff without knowing anything of the practice. In fields like engineerings, science, medicine, one learns from books and one can validate what one is told. For business and politics one learns from studying what happens and what people do, not what others say they will do.

As an investor you have to look well beyond the media and what folk in various sectors say. Almost all of them are not investors and are simply trying to get views and they know that by publishing bad stuff they will get more views while those in the business like to share their misery.

I can type with certainty that once we get past this c19 hysteria things will return to normal, all the Draconian stuff about cuts and closures will not happen. Council folk will keep their jobs and get pay rises and nothing will change. It never has and never does and by then the media will be onto some other band wagon.

I appreciate that this goes against everything you have been taught and it takes a lot of effort to free yourself from this fantasy view of the world, but the profits having done so justify the effort.

Regards,

[dealtn]

dealtn
For your info I have many friends and family across Private sector, Public sectors, academia and the media. I doubt I am overly influenced by any particular section.

Same old story. Unwilling to even concede an inch of ground when presented with facts and experience from others.

Pointless engaging with you. I would have thought that, like others across this site, you would be interested in a bit of educating and knowledge discovery, but clearly not. I am open to learning here, and have done on many occasions. I recently asked you on a different board for some knowledge on something you clearly are more aware of than I am. It's not difficult to admit when your knowledge is inferior and ask for assistance.

Others I'm sure can see the difference in approaches some make to discussing matters.

I can't see the point in you posting on a discussion board if you aren't open to discussion, but it's your time I suppose.

The issue is that you are sure you are right and that I am wrong.

I have studied financial things for a long time and I have come to the conclusion that most of what is broadcast, printed and posted on social media is un-related to the reality of the situation and by following it an investor will get wrong roaded and make expensive mistakes. This also applies to most educational courses on business etc. Most of them are given by folk who are professional teachers, not investors and so they spout on about stuff without knowing anything of the practice. In fields like engineerings, science, medicine, one learns from books and one can validate what one is told. For business and politics one learns from studying what happens and what people do, not what others say they will do.

As an investor you have to look well beyond the media and what folk in various sectors say. Almost all of them are not investors and are simply trying to get views and they know that by publishing bad stuff they will get more views while those in the business like to share their misery.

I can type with certainty that once we get past this c19 hysteria things will return to normal, all the Draconian stuff about cuts and closures will not happen. Council folk will keep their jobs and get pay rises and nothing will change. It never has and never does and by then the media will be onto some other band wagon.

I appreciate that this goes against everything you have been taught and it takes a lot of effort to free yourself from this fantasy view of the world, but the profits having done so justify the effort.

Regards,

Ok.

I qualified from the top University in the country, get a masters degree at the country's top business school, worked in the City for 25 years, set up a business that has been extremely successful allowing me to retire in my 50s. I remain a Director, elsewhere, and involved in other Private sector businesses. I personally know politicians, past and present, and my brother is currently in Cabinet position in a local authority dealing with this crisis.

So thank you for the lecture on "goes against everything you have been taught" but I can dismiss that.

Real cuts in real services are being made and decisions about cuts in services that will likely lead to real problems including deaths are taking place, with the cost/benefit trade off, unpleasant as that is, being assessed. Might I suggest you refrain from indulging yourself in this forum of a "fantasy view of the world" as you describe it and open your mind to the possibility that the real affects of this crisis aren't just being felt by the commercial sector, and its customers, but it is also affecting the public sector, and its customers/citizens.

Frankly I take nothing you write on this subject with any "certainty".

[odysseus2000]

dealtn

Ok.

I qualified from the top University in the country, get a masters degree at the country's top business school, worked in the City for 25 years, set up a business that has been extremely successful allowing me to retire in my 50s. I remain a Director, elsewhere, and involved in other Private sector businesses. I personally know politicians, past and present, and my brother is currently in Cabinet position in a local authority dealing with this crisis.

So thank you for the lecture on "goes against everything you have been taught" but I can dismiss that.

Real cuts in real services are being made and decisions about cuts in services that will likely lead to real problems including deaths are taking place, with the cost/benefit trade off, unpleasant as that is, being assessed. Might I suggest you refrain from indulging yourself in this forum of a "fantasy view of the world" as you describe it and open your mind to the possibility that the real affects of this crisis aren't just being felt by the commercial sector, and its customers, but it is also affecting the public sector, and its customers/citizens.

Frankly I take nothing you write on this subject with any "certainty".

Did you create anything but money?

It is one thing to go from a business degree into something specific to that degree in a City that 25+ years ago was a license to print money, minimal regulations, closed shops etc etc another to create and prosper in an environment where there were none of those advantages.

I am 100% certain that anyone who can is bleating about how difficult things are. I am also 100% certain that in a few years their bleating will have changed to something else and what they were bleating about will have been forgotten.

Of course one can argue that it will be different this time, but it never is.

Regards,

[dealtn]

dealtn

Ok.

I qualified from the top University in the country, get a masters degree at the country's top business school, worked in the City for 25 years, set up a business that has been extremely successful allowing me to retire in my 50s. I remain a Director, elsewhere, and involved in other Private sector businesses. I personally know politicians, past and present, and my brother is currently in Cabinet position in a local authority dealing with this crisis.

So thank you for the lecture on "goes against everything you have been taught" but I can dismiss that.

Real cuts in real services are being made and decisions about cuts in services that will likely lead to real problems including deaths are taking place, with the cost/benefit trade off, unpleasant as that is, being assessed. Might I suggest you refrain from indulging yourself in this forum of a "fantasy view of the world" as you describe it and open your mind to the possibility that the real affects of this crisis aren't just being felt by the commercial sector, and its customers, but it is also affecting the public sector, and its customers/citizens.

Frankly I take nothing you write on this subject with any "certainty".

Did you create anything but money?

It is one thing to go from a business degree into something specific to that degree in a City that 25+ years ago was a license to print money, minimal regulations, closed shops etc etc another to create and prosper in an environment where there were none of those advantages.

I am 100% certain that anyone who can is bleating about how difficult things are. I am also 100% certain that in a few years their bleating will have changed to something else and what they were bleating about will have been forgotten.

Of course one can argue that it will be different this time, but it never is.

Regards,

You know little about me, nor the City I worked in from that description.

I am not 100% certain about anything forward looking, and even backward looking that would be something I would claim rarely. I dismiss anyone who can casually make claims with 100% certainty. I suspect the only reason you are responding here is you enjoy the role of "troll", and I have learnt not to feed those.

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
You know little about me, nor the City I worked in from that description.

I am not 100% certain about anything forward looking, and even backward looking that would be something I would claim rarely. I dismiss anyone who can casually make claims with 100% certainty. I suspect the only reason you are responding here is you enjoy the role of "troll", and I have learnt not to feed those.

Yes, I know nothing about you, but I do know a lot about the City.

Rather than more posts and counter posts on this, I propose we see what has happened to Councils in 24 months time. It is my thesis that nothing will have changed.

Regards,

[johnhemming]

Coming slightly back to the macro aspects of Covid-19, however. It is probably the public sector that faces the biggest problems in adjusting. In part it has not been that good at adjusting (compared to the private sector) in the past. I have, however, not been involved in the detailed management of a public sector body for 5 years now.

[vrdiver]

Much as I've enjoyed the discussion about whether councils will suffer as a consequence of CV19, I think Ody and dealtn etc. might recognise that there's a halfway house in this.

In previous budget reviews, I know several councillors who have privately admitted that they voted to cut services that would create the most outrage and generate maximum media support for additional funding. Simply put, they wanted to provide lots of services to their communities, but couldn't, due to budgets. If they crafted a budget that generated little or no visible objection, they would have no chance of negotiating more funds, so the choice was simple, in order to get funding, they HAD to treat it as a political game, regardless of their vues as to which services should or should not be first for the chop.

Public sector workers WILL suffer. From lay-offs to recruitment freezes to a slowing down of promotions. The key difference between this and say, a private company, is where the pain ultimately falls. In the private world, as well as employees facing hardship, investors/owners of that company would be allowed to go bust, losing everything. In the public sector, even if a council were to go bust, the local residents would still receive the benefits of any mandatory services, so in that respect, if you think of the residents as the "owners" of the company, then they don't get wiped out, but instead get subsidised.

On the whole, in a recession/depression, I think I'd rather be a public servant than work for a private company (at least as far as job security matters), but regardless of employer, I think there will be pain enough to go around...

VRD

[PeterGray]

In the public sector, even if a council were to go bust, the local residents would still receive the benefits of any mandatory services, so in that respect, if you think of the residents as the "owners" of the company, then they don't get wiped out, but instead get subsidised.

That's only part of the story. You are right they "should" receive mandatory services if a council went bust - but as we've seen over recent years even when councils don't go bust the inevitable impact of reduced funds is both to cut non mandatory services - which are in many cases of considerable importance - and to reduce the extent and quality of mandatory services. There is, of course, a difference between the impact of bankrupcy on private companies and on public services - but there is no doubt local authorities, and their services have been suffering for years, and covid is going to make things worse.

Let us also remember that the difference is less clear cut than might appear. Many companies that go bankrupt continue to trade via pre packs etc, and in many cases private owners manage to protect much of their personal wealth. Certainly many shareholders will lose out. But though there are differences that is also true in the case of bankrupt councils. The losses remain, and though services may, at least in part, be maintained, they still have to be paid for - so ultimately we all lose out.

[mao44]

I have seen many business open 1 day, shuttered the next.

I have never seen this happen with a Council.

Regards,

Me too.

Then again I wasn't making the claim that they were "least troubled by this" was I?

At the time you made the claim I said you were wrong. Today I have provided a link to demonstrate some of those problems.

Now if I was making the claim they were "most troubled by this" then you would be right to shoot down such nonsense in flames (as would I if someone else was making such a ludicrous statement).

If you are seriously saying that local councils who are suffering significant revenue shortfalls, and increased costs, are better off than, say medical equipment suppliers, online delivery providers, webcam providers, to name but three then I would like to see your evidence for such.

Many listed businesses are seeing their shares trade at all time highs. I could name 3 in my portfolio off the top of my head. I doubt the services provided by my council next year, nor my council tax bill will reflect such a successful period under Covid. If yours does I would love to know where you live.

Sure there are business that are doing well, but there are also business that are in serious trouble. We are in a very strong equity bull market so one expects leading companies to be doing very well and destroying weaker business.

At the small business level things are grim. I was talking to a senior management in a tattoo company this evening and he was full of foreboding as although he is now telling customers that they will open on the 4th of July he doesn't believe it and meanwhile there are lots of overheads to pay and still no income. He was pessimistic that all of the chain will re-open. A Royal mail employee was fearful of his job as a series of redundancies went through and he expects more. A coach business I know is limping along, a unit rental business finds its customers are struggling to pay the rent which is already halved.

Sure Councils are saying how terrible things are and how they have terrible troubles etc etc, but they won't shutter never to re-open. Many business are struggling with existing overheads and business models that are compromised with the new Cover regulations and will close especially as the move to distant learning and distant buying continues to increase. Very few business are indispensable and can't be allowed to fail, Councils by contrast do not get shuttered and their workers keep their jobs.

Regards,

My bold. I am a Royal Mail employee and even though this is partly due to the pandemic it has not caused a loss of business but in fact a massive increase in parcel volumes but RMG do not currently have the infrastructure such as automation to deal with the exponential increase in those volumes!! Since the pandemic it is more than offsetting the reduction in letter volumes. The cull of management jobs was already planned before the pandemic!!

[odysseus2000]

This should be good for the sales of face masks:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11988276/ ... rce=pushly

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

The PM set out what he called a £5b new deal in this speech:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WG7ZLBUADME

So I watched it for investment opportunities and discovered none, more it seemed a recipe for a depression.

The focus is on infrastructure, housing, faster travel and faster broadband.

Building infra structure brings jobs to construction as does housing, but if there is no increasing in earnings for young folk to take advantage of new homes the progression can only be trickle down as their elders leave them wealth. Faster travel based on the decreased journey times for HS2 looks like a new re-defintion of faster and anyhow why build rail tracks when the world is moving to robotic driving. The whole idea of faster terrestrial broadband looks like yesterdays technology given how advanced is the SpaceX Starlink network.

So I can imagine that some builders will do well, but no big moves in their shares so no ones seems to think so, but otherwise it all looks like nothing and meanwhile more jobs losses keep coming everyday:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/11999476 ... rce=pushly

Perhaps I am missing stuff but the whole idea looks like a recipe for stagnation with minimal investment opportunity. Can anyone convince me that there are good opportunities in the UK?

Regards,

[dealtn]

Can anyone convince me that there are good opportunities in the UK?

Regards,

No.

[monabri]

Good opportunities in the UK? Maybe there are some sexy undiscovered high tech companies that will inevitably be snaffled by the US or China? ( protection )

[Mike4]

The PM set out what he called a £5b new deal in this speech:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WG7ZLBUADME

So I watched it for investment opportunities and discovered none, more it seemed a recipe for a depression.

The focus is on infrastructure, housing, faster travel and faster broadband.

Building infra structure brings jobs to construction as does housing, but if there is no increasing in earnings for young folk to take advantage of new homes the progression can only be trickle down as their elders leave them wealth. Faster travel based on the decreased journey times for HS2 looks like a new re-defintion of faster and anyhow why build rail tracks when the world is moving to robotic driving. The whole idea of faster terrestrial broadband looks like yesterdays technology given how advanced is the SpaceX Starlink network.

So I can imagine that some builders will do well, but no big moves in their shares so no ones seems to think so, but otherwise it all looks like nothing and meanwhile more jobs losses keep coming everyday:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/11999476 ... rce=pushly

Perhaps I am missing stuff but the whole idea looks like a recipe for stagnation with minimal investment opportunity. Can anyone convince me that there are good opportunities in the UK?

Regards,

Yes the whole speech seemed to me like a typical example of load of content-free Boris waffle. Designed to sound good to the uncritical masses who lap it up whilst actually saying nothing of any import at all. Just as I expected really.

[odysseus2000]

There is building circumstantial evidence that C-19 is a genetically altered virus that escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. This video gives some of the circumstantial evidence that suggests this is a modified virus that has escaped after being enhanced for the purposes of studying how to defeat a bat corona virus:

https://youtu.be/zQLF4DUSXGs

Longer version on the same subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5SRrsr-Iug


There is as yet no suggestion that this was deliberately released, but just an escape.

If this speculation is correct then the virus has had “gain of function” manipulation to make it more amenable to study and that it was also specifically engineered (fern site) to make it transferable to humans.

If this speculation is correct then this virus will be extremely difficult to defeat as it is, and worse it will mutate as all virus do, so that one has a virus that is specifically engineered to be infectious with the potential that it get less or more of a problem, something which we have no control over.

If some of the measurements are correct then the virus is not very transmissible outdoors, but it could evolve to be so.

From a macro investment perspective there is the potential for geo-political tension between China and the rest of the world.

Additionally if this is a laboratory modified virus it is so well adapted to human cells that we could be stuck with this virus going forwards as we are with influenza. If so then the effects on the tourism, transport and social activities are potentially very long term and as a species we may have to learn to live with it in an economic system stuck in a depression.

Hopefully, I have all of this wrong. If anyone knows better I would be very interested to hear why.

Regards,

[mao44]

There is building circumstantial evidence that C-19 is a genetically altered virus that escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. This video gives some of the circumstantial evidence that suggests this is a modified virus that has escaped after being enhanced for the purposes of studying how to defeat a bat corona virus:

https://youtu.be/zQLF4DUSXGs

Longer version on the same subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5SRrsr-Iug


There is as yet no suggestion that this was deliberately released, but just an escape.

If this speculation is correct then the virus has had “gain of function” manipulation to make it more amenable to study and that it was also specifically engineered (fern site) to make it transferable to humans.

If this speculation is correct then this virus will be extremely difficult to defeat as it is, and worse it will mutate as all virus do, so that one has a virus that is specifically engineered to be infectious with the potential that it get less or more of a problem, something which we have no control over.

If some of the measurements are correct then the virus is not very transmissible outdoors, but it could evolve to be so.

From a macro investment perspective there is the potential for geo-political tension between China and the rest of the world.

Additionally if this is a laboratory modified virus it is so well adapted to human cells that we could be stuck with this virus going forwards as we are with influenza. If so then the effects on the tourism, transport and social activities are potentially very long term and as a species we may have to learn to live with it in an economic system stuck in a depression.

Hopefully, I have all of this wrong. If anyone knows better I would be very interested to hear why.

Regards,

Are you a microbiologist or do you have any expertise in this field?

[odysseus2000]

mao44
Are you a microbiologist or do you have any expertise in this field?

No, that is why I hope I have all of this wrong and I need someone who has knowledge to post as to why this is all wrong.

Regards,