Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

[odysseus2000]

Interesting to see the difference between the various stock markets to the pandemic.
Seems that Far East, USA and China have rebounded much more quickly than Europe and UK.

I'm not surprised about Far East and China because they've got previous experience of dealing with epidemics, governments are more efficient in getting their population to do what's required, and probably have a healthier population than western countries.
Similarly Europe and UK aren't doing as well because they don't have the factors listed above.
The real outlier seems to be the USA, which has an unhealthy population plus an utterly shambolic response to Covid and an accelerating number of cases, but despite this, the NASDAQ index actually hit an all-time high during the pandemic, which I simply can't understand.

The coming second wave of infections and deaths in USA must now be obvious to everyone, but as far as the Dow Jones is concerned, it still seems nothing to worry about.

I think there are two factors:

1 The competition from other homes for money is weak with low or negative interest rates on bank accounts and many of the stellar performers in the Nasdaq are c19 proof in many ways.

2 Although the US population is not that healthy, they have enough facilities to look after everyone with health insurance and may get a vaccine for the folk who can afford it and in their Darwinian way of looking at things, those that don't have health insurance have to take what comes.

Also I wonder if there will be a second wave in the way of the first wave. The medics now have a lot of experience in dealing with the infections and much of the US is now warm and that may be a negative for the ability of the virus to survive outside of victims and thence spread less. I have been trying to get some steer on what is happening in the UK at pub open day plus 5, but I find it is impossible to make sense of the statistics which are often contradictory. I think we should know in about 10-15 days what the real UK picture is by whether there are a lot more lock downs. Extrapolating to other countries with many different parameters I don't think makes any sense given the huge reported variations which may be real of the effects of massaging the data, but either makes understanding near impossible.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

UK economy so far showing no signs of rebounding:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdom ... n-may-2020

Regards,

[dealtn]

UK economy so far showing no signs of rebounding:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdom ... n-may-2020

Regards,

You really are priceless!

It's gone up. It's not flat or down! There might not be "huge" signs but you really do need a new dictionary if its definition of "No" is as inaccurate as you portray.

[odysseus2000]

UK economy so far showing no signs of rebounding:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdom ... n-may-2020

Regards,

You really are priceless!

It's gone up. It's not flat or down! There might not be "huge" signs but you really do need a new dictionary if its definition of "No" is as inaccurate as you portray.

A pitiful move up compared to the previous huge down, is not what I would call rebounding and the pre-release estimates of the expected rise were far larger than the print.

If you want to argue not going down is rebounding then you are right, but to me rebounding means its obvious from the graph, countering much of the previous decline.

Regards,

[dealtn]

UK economy so far showing no signs of rebounding:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdom ... n-may-2020

Regards,

You really are priceless!

It's gone up. It's not flat or down! There might not be "huge" signs but you really do need a new dictionary if its definition of "No" is as inaccurate as you portray.

A pitiful move up compared to the previous huge down, is not what I would call rebounding and the pre-release estimates of the expected rise were far larger than the print.

If you want to argue not going down is rebounding then you are right, but to me rebounding means its obvious from the graph, countering much of the previous decline.

Regards,

Well maybe you need to wait until the June (or July or August) figure then, when the economy began to re-open, if you are looking for something to meet your (amended) criteria of "countering much of the previous decline" rather than "No" sign. We will have to wait, and that applies to most of the world's economies I would imagine too.

[odysseus2000]

This I believe is the future of education:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/google- ... r=sharebar

If I am right it spells a great contraction in Schools (private and public), University teaching and the entire learning industry with likely significant job losses. Given the advances in communication technology and the wealth of information already available and the reality that much technical knowledge is obsolete in 5 years, there needs to be a change away from conventional schooling (that has not changed much since the 19th century) into learning suited to the 21st century.

This trend was happening well before c19, but at a slow and unfocused rate. C19 has accelerated the transition to new ways of learning dramatically.

Regards,

[tjh290633]

This I believe is the future of education:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/google- ... r=sharebar

If I am right it spells a great contraction in Schools (private and public), University teaching and the entire learning industry with likely significant job losses. Given the advances in communication technology and the wealth of information already available and the reality that much technical knowledge is obsolete in 5 years, there needs to be a change away from conventional schooling (that has not changed much since the 19th century) into learning suited to the 21st century.

This trend was happening well before c19, but at a slow and unfocused rate. C19 has accelerated the transition to new ways of learning dramatically.

Regards,

This looks to me as an alternative to part of the activity of Further Education Colleges and some of the former polytechnics. It has no relevance to schools, where the current situation has shown that online tuition does not have a better, or even equivalent, outcome to traditional methods.

What C19 has shown is that there is no effective alternative to traditional teaching methods for the vast majority of pupils at all levels.

TJH

[dealtn]

This I believe is the future of education:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/google- ... r=sharebar

If I am right it spells a great contraction in Schools (private and public), University teaching and the entire learning industry with likely significant job losses. Given the advances in communication technology and the wealth of information already available and the reality that much technical knowledge is obsolete in 5 years, there needs to be a change away from conventional schooling (that has not changed much since the 19th century) into learning suited to the 21st century.

This trend was happening well before c19, but at a slow and unfocused rate. C19 has accelerated the transition to new ways of learning dramatically.

Regards,

Hard to make the leap from this to "schools" but if you really think schools haven't changed much since the 19th century you are living in a parallel universe I'm afraid. The schooling my children are getting by way of method of learning, channel of delivery, subject matter is noticeably different. To them I'm quite old, but my formative years were late 20th century.

[odysseus2000]

This I believe is the future of education:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/google- ... r=sharebar

If I am right it spells a great contraction in Schools (private and public), University teaching and the entire learning industry with likely significant job losses. Given the advances in communication technology and the wealth of information already available and the reality that much technical knowledge is obsolete in 5 years, there needs to be a change away from conventional schooling (that has not changed much since the 19th century) into learning suited to the 21st century.

This trend was happening well before c19, but at a slow and unfocused rate. C19 has accelerated the transition to new ways of learning dramatically.

Regards,

This looks to me as an alternative to part of the activity of Further Education Colleges and some of the former polytechnics. It has no relevance to schools, where the current situation has shown that online tuition does not have a better, or even equivalent, outcome to traditional methods.

What C19 has shown is that there is no effective alternative to traditional teaching methods for the vast majority of pupils at all levels.

TJH

How has it shown this?

As far as I can tell pupils who come from households who focus on education did great during lock down as they had the tech and motivation to self educate and/or had parents who helped, sometimes not happily, but help they did.

Pupils who came from households with no such focus did very little and last night one group who walked past while I was digging the garden where effing and blinding about getting emails from School saying they should work harder. Another group had set up a dope smoking gang on woodland I own and were not happy when I put in a lot of barbed wire to stop them smoking joints and littering up the land. What surprised me was how much dope they were getting through, the deep cheese like aroma was filling the wood and causing other people with young children to be distressed.

I asked a drug user how much a joint cost nowadays and was surprised when he gave a range based on purity, source etc, pulling out his mobile phone to show me the options his dealer gave him, of a few £ to £10, setting on a mean of £5 as a good estimate for a cigarette sized joint. Where ever these teens were getting their money it was in enough supply that they could burn £5 notes without concern.

Whether this type of behaviour would be any different pre c19 is unclear to me. Sure the teachers would have had to spend their time on crowd control and similar and a class with members from both groups would likely have not progressed as well as some of the ones have on their own.

I have no idea how one can motivate the latter group to be interested in education, but I will bet that in the by and by most of them will do well enough in some occupation that suits them to become effective members of society.

Regards,

[tjh290633]

This looks to me as an alternative to part of the activity of Further Education Colleges and some of the former polytechnics. It has no relevance to schools, where the current situation has shown that online tuition does not have a better, or even equivalent, outcome to traditional methods.

What C19 has shown is that there is no effective alternative to traditional teaching methods for the vast majority of pupils at all levels.

TJH

How has it shown this?

As far as I can tell pupils who come from households who focus on education did great during lock down as they had the tech and motivation to self educate and/or had parents who helped, sometimes not happily, but help they did.

Pupils who came from households with no such focus did very little and last night one group who walked past while I was digging the garden where effing and blinding about getting emails from School saying they should work harder. Another group had set up a dope smoking gang on woodland I own and were not happy when I put in a lot of barbed wire to stop them smoking joints and littering up the land. What surprised me was how much dope they were getting through, the deep cheese like aroma was filling the wood and causing other people with young children to be distressed.

I asked a drug user how much a joint cost nowadays and was surprised when he gave a range based on purity, source etc, pulling out his mobile phone to show me the options his dealer gave him, of a few £ to £10, setting on a mean of £5 as a good estimate for a cigarette sized joint. Where ever these teens were getting their money it was in enough supply that they could burn £5 notes without concern.

Whether this type of behaviour would be any different pre c19 is unclear to me. Sure the teachers would have had to spend their time on crowd control and similar and a class with members from both groups would likely have not progressed as well as some of the ones have on their own.

I have no idea how one can motivate the latter group to be interested in education, but I will bet that in the by and by most of them will do well enough in some occupation that suits them to become effective members of society.

Regards,

You have answered your own question. Children with parents who can guide them do well, but the vast majority do not have such parents. They may both be working, they may not have the intelligence to do it, they may just not fancy doing it. That is why a school-based education is best for the vast majority of pupils.

TJH

[odysseus2000]

This I believe is the future of education:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/google- ... r=sharebar

If I am right it spells a great contraction in Schools (private and public), University teaching and the entire learning industry with likely significant job losses. Given the advances in communication technology and the wealth of information already available and the reality that much technical knowledge is obsolete in 5 years, there needs to be a change away from conventional schooling (that has not changed much since the 19th century) into learning suited to the 21st century.

This trend was happening well before c19, but at a slow and unfocused rate. C19 has accelerated the transition to new ways of learning dramatically.

Regards,

Hard to make the leap from this to "schools" but if you really think schools haven't changed much since the 19th century you are living in a parallel universe I'm afraid. The schooling my children are getting by way of method of learning, channel of delivery, subject matter is noticeably different. To them I'm quite old, but my formative years were late 20th century.

Okay here is my take on why I argue Schools have not changed since the 19th century and a retired teacher I know agreed with me.

In my bee keeping work I meet a number of teachers and one of the standard conversations is that they tell me how they were forced to teach some subject about which they knew nothing and had no interest.

Pupils are put in classes, a teacher with the use of the web and what not puts together a course and teachers the pupils his/her interpretation of the syllabus. Some times this is great, sometimes its rubbish. Some pupils fall behind and don't get the help they need and leave school short of useful skills.

The classes proceeds at the speed of the average, some are bored, some can't keep up.

How could this be changed?

Instead of the teacher teaching, entire courses could be prepared over the internet with the pupil having a choice of several course for each subject, based on whether they like the presenter. Each pupil would then proceed along the course and the teachers along with on-line assistants and increasingly artificial intelligence would be there to answer any questions so that each teacher no longer taught classes but helped each pupil get the best out of their chosen course as needed while maintaining crowd control etc. There would be regular examination and that would allow tailoring of the courses to improve pupil understanding etc and the pupils who didn't get various aspects would be passed to more tailored courses to address their issues with the aim to make sure all pupils could handle basic skills of reading, writing, arithmetic, web research, online operations, money management etc by the time they left school.

Schools would move from the one size fits all as practiced since education became compulsory, to each child getting a course tailored to his/her needs.

Regards,

[dealtn]

This I believe is the future of education:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/google- ... r=sharebar

If I am right it spells a great contraction in Schools (private and public), University teaching and the entire learning industry with likely significant job losses. Given the advances in communication technology and the wealth of information already available and the reality that much technical knowledge is obsolete in 5 years, there needs to be a change away from conventional schooling (that has not changed much since the 19th century) into learning suited to the 21st century.

This trend was happening well before c19, but at a slow and unfocused rate. C19 has accelerated the transition to new ways of learning dramatically.

Regards,

Hard to make the leap from this to "schools" but if you really think schools haven't changed much since the 19th century you are living in a parallel universe I'm afraid. The schooling my children are getting by way of method of learning, channel of delivery, subject matter is noticeably different. To them I'm quite old, but my formative years were late 20th century.

Okay here is my take on why I argue Schools have not changed since the 19th century and a retired teacher I know agreed with me.

In my bee keeping work I meet a number of teachers and one of the standard conversations is that they tell me how they were forced to teach some subject about which they knew nothing and had no interest.

Pupils are put in classes, a teacher with the use of the web and what not puts together a course and teachers the pupils his/her interpretation of the syllabus. Some times this is great, sometimes its rubbish. Some pupils fall behind and don't get the help they need and leave school short of useful skills.

So teachers had the web in the 19th Century then did they?

As for the rest of your post there is a quite an overlap between what you desire and what is available to my children at their current school. I don't recognise your description of "one size fits all", not even close. My children get different teaching to each other, and their school mates. Much tuition is individual, some class based, more than 50% e-learning etc.

I think you will find the education sector has changed a lot even since the 20th century let alone the 19th you are comparing it to!

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
So teachers had the web in the 19th Century then did they?

As for the rest of your post there is a quite an overlap between what you desire and what is available to my children at their current school. I don't recognise your description of "one size fits all", not even close. My children get different teaching to each other, and their school mates. Much tuition is individual, some class based, more than 50% e-learning etc.

I think you will find the education sector has changed a lot even since the 20th century let alone the 19th you are comparing it to!

It depends a lot on the School, some are very good and your children look to be at a good one.

Others haven't changed much overall from the 19th century, just that they have 21st tech being used like books in ways that a 19th century teacher
would understand.

There is no difference, as far as one can test, in average intelligence across time since the first humans or across the class divisions within society.

However, some social groups and schools produce many more successful individuals than others. That tells me that some teaching approaches need to be upgraded to get a great level of realised potential into society.

It would be nice if every pupil could get to their best level and as far as I can tell, at present, many schools do not achieve that.

Regards,

[dealtn]

dealtn
So teachers had the web in the 19th Century then did they?

As for the rest of your post there is a quite an overlap between what you desire and what is available to my children at their current school. I don't recognise your description of "one size fits all", not even close. My children get different teaching to each other, and their school mates. Much tuition is individual, some class based, more than 50% e-learning etc.

I think you will find the education sector has changed a lot even since the 20th century let alone the 19th you are comparing it to!

It depends a lot on the School, some are very good and your children look to be at a good one.

Others haven't changed much overall from the 19th century, just that they have 21st tech being used like books in ways that a 19th century teacher
would understand.

There is no difference, as far as one can test, in average intelligence across time since the first humans or across the class divisions within society.

However, some social groups and schools produce many more successful individuals than others. That tells me that some teaching approaches need to be upgraded to get a great level of realised potential into society.

It would be nice if every pupil could get to their best level and as far as I can tell, at present, many schools do not achieve that.

Regards,

Good to see you are finally using words such as "some" and "many" rather than the sweeping binary generalisation you seem to prefer.

[dealtn]

dealtn
You know little about me, nor the City I worked in from that description.

I am not 100% certain about anything forward looking, and even backward looking that would be something I would claim rarely. I dismiss anyone who can casually make claims with 100% certainty. I suspect the only reason you are responding here is you enjoy the role of "troll", and I have learnt not to feed those.

Yes, I know nothing about you, but I do know a lot about the City.

Rather than more posts and counter posts on this, I propose we see what has happened to Councils in 24 months time. It is my thesis that nothing will have changed.

Regards,

Not 24 months, or even 24 days for that matter, but "news" like this doesn't seem to be on your side of the argument that Councils (and those they represent) are unaffected by the economic situation post Covid-19.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-b ... ting-story

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
You know little about me, nor the City I worked in from that description.

I am not 100% certain about anything forward looking, and even backward looking that would be something I would claim rarely. I dismiss anyone who can casually make claims with 100% certainty. I suspect the only reason you are responding here is you enjoy the role of "troll", and I have learnt not to feed those.

Yes, I know nothing about you, but I do know a lot about the City.

Rather than more posts and counter posts on this, I propose we see what has happened to Councils in 24 months time. It is my thesis that nothing will have changed.

Regards,

Not 24 months, or even 24 days for that matter, but "news" like this doesn't seem to be on your side of the argument that Councils (and those they represent) are unaffected by the economic situation post Covid-19.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-b ... ting-story

Council negotiating in the media.

Regards,

[Bubblesofearth]

So teachers had the web in the 19th Century then did they?

As for the rest of your post there is a quite an overlap between what you desire and what is available to my children at their current school. I don't recognise your description of "one size fits all", not even close. My children get different teaching to each other, and their school mates. Much tuition is individual, some class based, more than 50% e-learning etc.

I think you will find the education sector has changed a lot even since the 20th century let alone the 19th you are comparing it to!

Agreed. There is almost no discipline in most state schools now. The learning environment is therefore dreadful with a constant background level of noise tolerated. My kids managed to get an education despite this problem (at what is ironically regarded as one of the top state schools in the area) as we were invested in making sure we helped as much as possible.

Not that you will get many teachers to admit this problem. It is, for them, to admit a sort of failure. Not that it is actually their fault in the main.

Of course if you can afford private schooling the picture is very different.

BoE

[odysseus2000]

According the British chamber of commerce, one in 3 firms are planning to lay off workers as the furlough ends:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12137955/ ... rce=pushly

Regards,

[dealtn]

According the British chamber of commerce, one in 3 firms are planning to lay off workers as the furlough ends:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12137955/ ... rce=pushly

Regards,

Surprised it's as low as that. If so I would take that as a positive signal. I don't read that rag, or have any inclination to click the link, so it might say more. Probably the explanation is that many of the 2/3 will also be laying off but don't have "current plans" to.

[odysseus2000]

According the British chamber of commerce, one in 3 firms are planning to lay off workers as the furlough ends:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12137955/ ... rce=pushly

Regards,

Surprised it's as low as that. If so I would take that as a positive signal. I don't read that rag, or have any inclination to click the link, so it might say more. Probably the explanation is that many of the 2/3 will also be laying off but don't have "current plans" to.

UK unemployment during the Great Depression was over 15%:

https://www.google.com/search?q=unemply ... e&ie=UTF-8

This article 3 months ago said unemployment in the UK could exceed Great Depression levels:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... 20February.

Equity market still don't care, so maybe these estimates will prove badly wrong.

Regards,