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Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
look
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286501

Postby look » February 24th, 2020, 10:33 pm

answer to odisseus2000



remdesevir (new drug of gilead that chinese want to register for them)

natural anti virals (there are plenty)

look
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286503

Postby look » February 24th, 2020, 10:40 pm

some natural antivirals:
colliodal silver,elderberry, echinacea, garlic, green tea, liqorice,oliveleaf, pau d'arco, st. john's wort

the system doesn't let me build a link

odysseus2000
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286505

Postby odysseus2000 » February 24th, 2020, 11:00 pm

look wrote:answer to odisseus2000



remdesevir (new drug of gilead that chinese want to register for them)

natural anti virals (there are plenty)


I have seen various references to these and similar products, but the Centre for Disease Control is still saying:

This new virus represents a tremendous public health threat. We don’t yet have a vaccine for this novel virus, nor do we have a medicine to treat it specifically.

So as I understand it although the medicines you suggest along with Chloroquine may be beneficial there is still nothing that is specific in its effect on CORVID-19 and, again as I understand it, it is unlikely that a drug specific for it will be available for many months.

It may be that e.g. Chloroquine will be good enough to save lives which would be a big positive. It was developed in the 1940's so was not available for the Spanish flu although there are side effects if prolonged use was needed.

I believe Chloroquine can be produced in large quantities if needed, (pleased to be corrected if I am wrong)

Regards,

look
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286511

Postby look » February 24th, 2020, 11:27 pm

i think that to be good or effective it's not necessary that a remedy is specific.
there are many examples of remedies that are good for several diseases;

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286517

Postby 77ss » February 25th, 2020, 1:05 am

blobby wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Best I can find out so far is that there is no effective counter measure, but if anyone can correct me then please do.


Chloroquine seems to be a possibility. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550


There are all sorts of general anti-virals which may be of some assistance - to those who have contracted the disease.

Vaccine development seems to be moving quite fast - see the GSK/Clover news item:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/g ... 19-protein

Checking out the lethality of this particular coronovirus, it appears to be under 2%. Ordinary 'flu tends to be under 1% and Sars was about 10%.

vrdiver
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286520

Postby vrdiver » February 25th, 2020, 3:06 am

77ss wrote:Checking out the lethality of this particular coronovirus, it appears to be under 2%. Ordinary 'flu tends to be under 1% and Sars was about 10%.

The WHO's original estimate was a 2% fatality rate, but currently coronavirus is running at around 9% according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
(but it does seem to be coming down as a % as the number of cases increases).

VRD

Stan
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286527

Postby Stan » February 25th, 2020, 7:35 am

I suppose this thread is the nearest on here to a daily a daily trading/Investing thread.

Assuming so I just wanted to add my two penny worth, and say that at times like these that with big drops in prices are actually a good buying opportunity if we carefully select the shares already on our watch list that we have fancied.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286534

Postby GoSeigen » February 25th, 2020, 8:11 am

vrdiver wrote:but currently coronavirus is running at around 9% according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


That's in line my calculation of between 5 and 10%.

GS
Last edited by tjh290633 on February 25th, 2020, 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Tag corrected - TJH

odysseus2000
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286548

Postby odysseus2000 » February 25th, 2020, 9:13 am

I may be wrong, but as I understand it pneumonia comes in either bacterial or virus forms. The former can be treated with anti bionics, the latter is more difficult and kills people quickly, so that drugs which are only marginally effective may not counter the pneumonia in time to save the patient.

The bodies own defences can over react with young fit people causing more deaths with fit young individuals than older to very young patients. This was the problem with Spanish flu.

Each death is a tragedy and now we have very connected markets so that if there was to be serious illness in China, many supply lines of products would be reduced causing economic troubles around the world.

For the moment the reality is hidden in a host of very misleading comments and statistics making the whole thing very difficult to game due to the large market volatility with strong up moves on one piece of news and strong down on other pieces of news, all at a time when US market in particular have been very strong so that the desire to protect profits can lead to fast sell offs and fast retracements.

The potential imho is more for a strong sell off than a strong rally given the previous market strength, but that is a bit obvious making it less likely to happen although far from impossible

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286566

Postby tjh290633 » February 25th, 2020, 10:45 am

odysseus2000 wrote:I may be wrong, but as I understand it pneumonia comes in either bacterial or virus forms. The former can be treated with anti bionics

I think you mean antibiotics. I don't think that repelling robots would help very much.

TJH

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286576

Postby odysseus2000 » February 25th, 2020, 11:29 am

tjh290633 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:I may be wrong, but as I understand it pneumonia comes in either bacterial or virus forms. The former can be treated with anti bionics

I think you mean antibiotics. I don't think that repelling robots would help very much.

TJH


Ha Ha, Yes, I find that the auto type and spelling correction causes me more time lost due to having to proof things than just getting it wrong and even with proof reading I make bloomers like this!

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286578

Postby johnhemming » February 25th, 2020, 11:40 am

GoSeigen wrote:
vrdiver wrote:but currently coronavirus is running at around 9% according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


That's in line my calculation of between 5 and 10%.

GS

The problem with this way of calculating the figures is that if you start out with only finding cases as a result of people dying and then try to find other people infected you end up not knowing of lots of cases where the infection is either really mild or even asymptomatic.

My guess as for now is that the genie is well and truly out of the bottle. There is a question as to what effect climate has on the virus (particularly how infectious it is). We can tell by looking at infections north and south of the equator. It is quite possible that as we move into spring and summer the number of infections in the north go down, but those in the south go up.

It does appear that the severity of the disease is correlated with ACE2 receptor levels and hence substantially ethnic groups.

Hence the question we first need to consider is what changes are likely globally in the medium to long term in terms of minimising the effect of this virus which currently has no treatment other than treating the symptoms.

It may be that some countries will have to take it more seriously than others, but that is not certain as yet. I would, however, expect there to be some undetected cases in many countries.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286603

Postby Laughton » February 25th, 2020, 12:51 pm

Seemingly, to me, one of the worst and most dangerous side effects is pneumonia.
As anti-pneumonia vaccine is available, and free for those over 65, shouldn't at least the over 65s be being encouraged to get vaccinated?

Or am I misunderstanding and the pneumonia vaccine not effective against coronavirus pneumonia.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286612

Postby odysseus2000 » February 25th, 2020, 1:22 pm

Laughton wrote:Seemingly, to me, one of the worst and most dangerous side effects is pneumonia.
As anti-pneumonia vaccine is available, and free for those over 65, shouldn't at least the over 65s be being encouraged to get vaccinated?

Or am I misunderstanding and the pneumonia vaccine not effective against coronavirus pneumonia.


My understanding is that the authorities are still in a test phase with some drugs like chloroquine showing some positive benefits, but as of now there is no specific treatment for the coronavirus-19.

Hopefully I am wrong and there are specific treatments and I would welcome correction if so.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286620

Postby odysseus2000 » February 25th, 2020, 1:54 pm

WHO says that countries should prepare now in case corona-19 becomes a pandemic:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51611422

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286621

Postby johnhemming » February 25th, 2020, 1:59 pm

Laughton wrote:As anti-pneumonia vaccine is available

There is a vaccine against Streptococcus pneumoniae which is a bacterium that can cause pneumonia.

Pneumonia is an infection of the lungs which can be caused by bacteria, viruses and fungi.

One virus that can cause Pneumonia is officially called Covid-19 which is a type of Coronavirus. However, as yet there is no vaccine against it although lot of people are talking about that.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286623

Postby Midsmartin » February 25th, 2020, 2:01 pm

According to the BBC:

" Iranian officials are refusing to impose quarantines in areas affected by the outbreak. They say quarantines are old-fashioned and that they do not believe in them."

Something similar would probably occur in all the areas where health teams trying to distribute vaccinations are attacked.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286626

Postby johnhemming » February 25th, 2020, 2:13 pm

There is a relevant video of the Deputy Health Minister of Iran sweating profusely from a fever at a Press Conference a few days before he was diagnosed as having Covid-19.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286648

Postby jackdaww » February 25th, 2020, 4:36 pm

Stan wrote:I suppose this thread is the nearest on here to a daily a daily trading/Investing thread.

Assuming so I just wanted to add my two penny worth, and say that at times like these that with big drops in prices are actually a good buying opportunity if we carefully select the shares already on our watch list that we have fancied.


============================

ftse 100 is down another 2% today .

i am waiting for buying opportunities.....

:roll:

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#286652

Postby fca2019 » February 25th, 2020, 4:47 pm

FTSE 100 at a one year low - is currently 7,018, compared to 7,020 on 1/2/19. There go my lovely gains! Silver lining, UK stocks good place for high dividend yield.


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