Signs of a bottom?

[odysseus2000]

Opening in NY extremely bearish.

Unless this abates we could be seeing the 20% down circuit breaker close US trading for the day.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

This was the opening in NY, opened and closed in seconds:

https://twitter.com/CharlesRobinson/sta ... 48065?s=20

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

UK markets felt more stable today, more indicative of a potential bottom than in last several days. I don't know if this will hold.

US markets also showing more stability as I type with defensive stuff like Amazon looking better. Amazon now, as I type, over $200 above low of 4 days ago. I also don't know if this holds.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Markets back to risk off, with a mixture of holding and weakness in gains which is not surprising given the weekend approaching.

The announcement that there were no new cases in China, except for returning folk, seems to have been forgotten now and is anyhow a bit questionable given the mayhem in Italy. The way Apple has sold off today also makes me nervous about the validity of the Chinese reporting.

It will be interesting to see what developments and news come out over the weekend.

As things now stand, yesterday looks like a dead cat bounce, but that can change a lot over the weekend when the East begins the global day.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

As things now stand, yesterday looks like a dead cat bounce, but that can change a lot over the weekend when the East begins the global day.

Regards,

My money's on the cat!

John

[monabri]

Markets back to risk off, with a mixture of holding and weakness in gains which is not surprising given the weekend approaching.

The announcement that there were no new cases in China, except for returning folk, seems to have been forgotten now and is anyhow a bit questionable given the mayhem in Italy. The way Apple has sold off today also makes me nervous about the validity of the Chinese reporting.

It will be interesting to see what developments and news come out over the weekend.

As things now stand, yesterday looks like a dead cat bounce, but that can change a lot over the weekend when the East begins the global day.

Regards,

The way Italy records deaths due to Coronavirus is reportedly not reliable.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ied-italy/

"The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus"

"On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,”

Why don't they record the figures correctly?

[redsturgeon]

Markets back to risk off, with a mixture of holding and weakness in gains which is not surprising given the weekend approaching.

The announcement that there were no new cases in China, except for returning folk, seems to have been forgotten now and is anyhow a bit questionable given the mayhem in Italy. The way Apple has sold off today also makes me nervous about the validity of the Chinese reporting.

It will be interesting to see what developments and news come out over the weekend.

As things now stand, yesterday looks like a dead cat bounce, but that can change a lot over the weekend when the East begins the global day.

Regards,

The way Italy records deaths due to Coronavirus is reportedly not reliable.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ied-italy/

"The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus"

"On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,”

Why don't they record the figures correctly?

It is not that straightforward to always know the direct cause of death.

For example, an 89 year old with a heart condition and diabetes, comes into the hospital with covid 19. They have pneumonia and are put on a ventilator. Their body is under too much pressure and they they go into acute organ failure. You are the physician in charge. You have been working non stop for many hours and perhaps haven't left the hospital for days. You have hundreds of patients around you who need your attention who are still alive. How much time do you spend making sure you put the exact cause of death? Not much I'd say. I'd not be in a hurry to blame them.

John

[ursaminortaur]

Markets back to risk off, with a mixture of holding and weakness in gains which is not surprising given the weekend approaching.

The announcement that there were no new cases in China, except for returning folk, seems to have been forgotten now and is anyhow a bit questionable given the mayhem in Italy. The way Apple has sold off today also makes me nervous about the validity of the Chinese reporting.

It will be interesting to see what developments and news come out over the weekend.

As things now stand, yesterday looks like a dead cat bounce, but that can change a lot over the weekend when the East begins the global day.

Regards,

The way Italy records deaths due to Coronavirus is reportedly not reliable.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ied-italy/

"The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus"

"On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,”

Why don't they record the figures correctly?

It is not that straightforward to always know the direct cause of death.

For example, an 89 year old with a heart condition and diabetes, comes into the hospital with covid 19. They have pneumonia and are put on a ventilator. Their body is under too much pressure and they they go into acute organ failure. You are the physician in charge. You have been working non stop for many hours and perhaps haven't left the hospital for days. You have hundreds of patients around you who need your attention who are still alive. How much time do you spend making sure you put the exact cause of death? Not much I'd say. I'd not be in a hurry to blame them.

John

The patient's body wouldn't have been put under too much pressure without the covid-19 infection hence I'd suggest that the way the italians are recording coronovirus deaths is probably a good way of doing it otherwise you are going to be recording people as dying of other causes who without the infection might well have lived on with their condition for years.

[monabri]

Sorry but I don't think it is correct to report a death as C19 simply for expediency. The figures are unreliable and this leads to further panic when they report 627 deaths in a day.

[GoSeigen]

Sorry but I don't think it is correct to report a death as C19 simply for expediency. The figures are unreliable and this leads to further panic when they report 627 deaths in a day.

You're going to have to explain how they are unreliable. You don't think anyone is dying from coronavirus and you don't believe the deaths are growing exponentially? You're in Trumps position ten days ago when it was all a fake designed to cause panic?


GS
EDIT: To be clear I am stating what appears to be obvious to everyone, that it doesn't matter whether the figure is 627 or 327" next week your 327 will become 627 anyway, unless you deny exponential growth as I asked above. So you're basically just 7 days behind everyone else.

[Bhoddhisatva]

Folks
Could we please return to the topic?
No matter how accurately or correctly tragic deaths are counted, this thread is about discussing signs of a bottom to the markets.
Thanks.

[csearle]

Moderator Message:
The OP posted this...

Imagine you have a good pile of cash and want to invest it.

You’ve been sitting on your hands for a few months feeling markets were over-valued and not wanting to commit most of it to stocks.

Now the markets have dropped substantially I’d welcome suggestions on what are good signs or indicators for being at or near the bottom ... of UK or global stocks.

I know conventional Foolish logic is not to try and time the markets but ... if one is lucky enough to have cash at hand it is a really tricky time deciding when to commit.

I could imagine trading volumes might drop as people stop buying or selling shares being fearful of the market. Or fundamental valuations reach daft levels ... but what level?

Really would welcome any practical suggestions.

Please stay on-topic. If you wish to chat about C19 then please do so here. Thanks. - Chris

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Folks
Could we please return to the topic?
No matter how accurately or correctly tragic deaths are counted, this thread is about discussing signs of a bottom to the markets.
Thanks.

I think that anyone currently purchasing any stocks should be entirely focused upon the number of deaths as essentially, in my humble opinion, this is a bet on exactly that number. If the death rate was minimal I would suggest there are strong reasons to expect stock prices to be higher. And I would also suggest how deaths are counted is part of that picture. However, I tend to take pyad's view on this and the time to buy is always now - I have been looking through many stocks that I have had on my long term radar and reviewing their fundamentals. In particular what I am focused on is the four figures which go to make up pyad's acronym styled board name. Profit, yield, assets & debt.

However, I probably spend a little more time looking at the outcome of the virus worldwide. Whilst pyad is correct and no one can predict any outcome I still take an interest in timelines and do this through the impact the virus is having. And I would suggest regardless of any personal point of view that we all hold that the death rate will have an impact on market prices. Quite simply there is a reasonable argument to suggest that if 1m people were dead now from the virus the bottom would be substantially lower than it is.

AiYn'U

[dealtn]

Quite simply there is a reasonable argument to suggest that if 1m people were dead now from the virus the bottom would be substantially lower than it is.

AiYn'U

I don't think it's anything "simple" at all. Markets are, and will continue to be, forward looking. If we are at 1 million deaths, and no end in sight, the markets will be at a completely different level than if we are at 1 million deaths but these are now only being added to at a frequency of 1 or 2 a week.

That is surely the difficulty in trying to spot "signs of a bottom", particularly at this early stage.

[Bhoddhisatva]

Update
So far I’ve dropped some cash into RSDB, LLOY, ITV, BP, HSBC and others ... and iShares for FTSE 100 and FTSE250.

Yes I know FTSE 100 overlaps 3 of the individual shares.

Of course then today banks announce cancellation of dividends ...
(What the regulator thinks it’s doing cancelling lawful divis when banks have already substantially higher resources than in any previous crash escapes me.)

Choosing to buy the indices is a deliberate aim at spreading risk. ... both down ~30% ish so over time and almost regardless of individual share or co. performance I’d hope to see strong recovery over next 18-24 months.

Still holding some 75% cash ...

[odysseus2000]

Update
So far I’ve dropped some cash into RSDB, LLOY, ITV, BP, HSBC and others ... and iShares for FTSE 100 and FTSE250.

Yes I know FTSE 100 overlaps 3 of the individual shares.

Of course then today banks announce cancellation of dividends ...
(What the regulator thinks it’s doing cancelling lawful divis when banks have already substantially higher resources than in any previous crash escapes me.)

Choosing to buy the indices is a deliberate aim at spreading risk. ... both down ~30% ish so over time and almost regardless of individual share or co. performance I’d hope to see strong recovery over next 18-24 months.

Still holding some 75% cash ...

Trying to get good entries is always a trouble.

The BP, RSDS both look to me as plays on Trump sorting out the Russians and the Saudis. If he can get any kind of agreement the chance of oils having a rally is good. However, I wonder if the demand part of the equation is priced in. On the one hand there is the recovery in the Chinese PMI, on the other the declining one in the UK. China uses a lot of fuel but if Europe and US are using less it become more difficult for me to gauge which way things should go.

UK banks to me look problematic as I can see a lot of loan and mortgage payments being at best delayed and if things get worse re-possesions and bankruptcies, but there is still the Government wanting to keep the financial system going as some kind of support, but with out dividends they don't look attractive to me. HSBC has always been even more of a trouble. If China is back up and making that is good, but if European and US consumers are not spending that is bad.

I am finding it hard to say that we have reached a low here because I am still seeing folk wanting to buy, instead of selling and leaving the markets forever which is more classic bottom territory. On a more positive note one of the IG technicians was just on forecasting more downside and I have never found him to have that good of a crystal ball.

For me it is mostly day trading, tiny amounts in to my favourite high tech plays, otherwise watching.

Good luck!

[dealtn]

For me it is mostly day trading, tiny amounts in to my favourite high tech plays, otherwise watching.!

Irrelevant to this board

[odysseus2000]

For me it is mostly day trading, tiny amounts in to my favourite high tech plays, otherwise watching.!

Irrelevant to this board

It is just a statement of what I am doing, not a recommendation or anything, just indicating I have no conviction either way.

I addressed other issues concerned with another posters actions in the post.

Regards,