Why has Trump's Covid led to a market fall?

[bluedonkey]

As the OP, perhaps I should apologise for setting this particular hare running. The market's reaction today to Trump's Covid could perhaps be summed up as "largely irrelevant."

[odysseus2000]

As the OP, perhaps I should apologise for setting this particular hare running. The market's reaction today to Trump's Covid could perhaps be summed up as "largely irrelevant."

To me its a binary situation:

Trump gets a lot worse, markets tank

Trump makes fast recovery, markets rally.

Trump slowly recovers, markets steady to up

I don't think what happens to the President will be ignored by market participants.

Regards,

[dealtn]

As the OP, perhaps I should apologise for setting this particular hare running. The market's reaction today to Trump's Covid could perhaps be summed up as "largely irrelevant."

To me its a binary situation:

Trump gets a lot worse, markets tank

Trump makes fast recovery, markets rally.

Trump slowly recovers, markets steady to up

I don't think what happens to the President will be ignored by market participants.

Regards,

You do know what binary means?

[odysseus2000]

As the OP, perhaps I should apologise for setting this particular hare running. The market's reaction today to Trump's Covid could perhaps be summed up as "largely irrelevant."

To me its a binary situation:

Trump gets a lot worse, markets tank

Trump makes fast recovery, markets rally.

Trump slowly recovers, markets steady to up

I don't think what happens to the President will be ignored by market participants.

Regards,

You do know what binary means?

Yes, I do and its binary risk in the sense that there are two risk directions.

Anyone long risks some poor health update on Trump tanking the market.

Anyone short risks some good health update on Trump rallying the market.

Any decent short term trader, which is most market participants, will be very wary of Presidential news during the market open session and less likely to have open positions over night in case of market gaps either way.

Neither risk event may occur, but in terms of the risk it is strongly binary with the potential to get hurt or make out like a bandit if a position happens to be matched to what happens. This is not something most traders like. It is a situation where big profits or losses can be made and traders focus on that more than anything.

Regards,

[dealtn]

To me its a binary situation:

Trump gets a lot worse, markets tank

Trump makes fast recovery, markets rally.

Trump slowly recovers, markets steady to up

I don't think what happens to the President will be ignored by market participants.

Regards,

You do know what binary means?

Yes, I do and its binary risk in the sense that there are two risk directions.

Priceless.

Any situations where the markets don't have two risk directions? Or would they be covered by your third option of "steady to up" which doesn't count.

[odysseus2000]

You do know what binary means?

Yes, I do and its binary risk in the sense that there are two risk directions.

Priceless.

Any situations where the markets don't have two risk directions? Or would they be covered by your third option of "steady to up" which doesn't count.

Most of the time.

Risk is either of missing out on big up moves with low down move risk

or

Missing out on big down moves when there is little upside risk.

This conditions, either up or down, is referred to as a trending markets and is loved by traders.

Markets were there are lots of inside bars have small and approximately equal balance of risk to go up or down and so do neither are hated by traders and many traders do not trade them, simply waiting in cash to see which side eventually breaks and then going with the new trend.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Trump says the drug Regeneron made him better and that he authorising emergency use and that it will be free for all patients:

https://twitter.com/rkraus19/status/131 ... 95712?s=20

The Regeneron drug is a monoclonal antibody coctail.

After the close Regeneron was up 3%.

The shares peaked in July at $664.64 and after hours reached $608.10

If Trump's experience is repeated across the US, the pandemic is likely over which could hurt the potential vaccine stocks.

Regards,

[PeterGray]

Firstly we don't know if Trump has fully recovered - or even got over the worst. He's not known for his honesty, and he has good reason for wanting to claim to be fit.

Secondly, even if he is it proves nothing. We know that there's a wide range of impacts of Covid from no symptons to death. The expericence of one man treated with the best medical care that is possible tells us nothing.

Thirdly, the promise to make it freely available is clear nonsense. To scale up production to the levels required would be a massive undetaking, and the costs massive. It makes a good pre election promise, but it's probably worth nothing.

[redsturgeon]

Trump says the drug Regeneron made him better and that he authorising emergency use and that it will be free for all patients:

https://twitter.com/rkraus19/status/131 ... 95712?s=20

The Regeneron drug is a monoclonal antibody coctail.

After the close Regeneron was up 3%.

The shares peaked in July at $664.64 and after hours reached $608.10

If Trump's experience is repeated across the US, the pandemic is likely over which could hurt the potential vaccine stocks.

Regards,

That's a mighty big 'if".

BTW does anyone know how much a standard dose of the antibody cocktail costs? And Trump was given three time that...just to be on the safe side!
Oh and Trump knows the CEO personally.

John

[odysseus2000]

This is a press release by Regeneron re their product that was taken by the President:

https://investor.regeneron.com/static-f ... b01c313ec6

If anyone has detailed knowledge about how much of this product could be supplied and at what cost to the company, it would be interesting to have posted here.

The President has stated that it will be given for free.

He also repeated that China would have to pay for the virus.

What any of this means if anything is unclear. It could be all electioneering and if Biden wins it would potentially be nullified.

However, the experience of the President and the test results from Regeneron are the most encouraging medical response that I have seen since the
Covid pandemic began. There are still many uncertainties such as a need for more data, information on production and the costing/payer etc, but for now it looks encouraging and will imho be likely taken positively by the financial markets. Anymore confirming data will likely see a re-rating of some beaten down sectors like airlines, social enterprises etc.

Regards,

[PeterGray]

You don't know what the real experience of the President was. How can you say that. About the only thing you can say is that he had the best possible medical care (short of injecting bleach) that it would be possible to get. Something that has not comparison to the experience of most of the rest of the population.

And even if it's all true, it tells you nothing about the effect of REGN-COV2. One case. There are no doubt far more than that already to look at where the medical treatment would have been far more normal and the outcome much clearer. It would be no surprise if antibody infusions helped, there's already some evidence, and it would be expected in may ways. But the big issues are how effective, how safe, how much and how much can you make. None of those are answered by a few unverified tweets from Trump.

[odysseus2000]

You don't know what the real experience of the President was. How can you say that. About the only thing you can say is that he had the best possible medical care (short of injecting bleach) that it would be possible to get. Something that has not comparison to the experience of most of the rest of the population.

And even if it's all true, it tells you nothing about the effect of REGN-COV2. One case. There are no doubt far more than that already to look at where the medical treatment would have been far more normal and the outcome much clearer. It would be no surprise if antibody infusions helped, there's already some evidence, and it would be expected in may ways. But the big issues are how effective, how safe, how much and how much can you make. None of those are answered by a few unverified tweets from Trump.

Yes, but as investors/traders, this is the world we inhabit.

If we wait until it is certain that the Regeneron product is a sure fire winner or a failure, it will be too late to make any money.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Regeneron requests emergency approval of drug that the President took:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/08/regener ... tment.html

Regards,