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Why are markets up?

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odysseus2000
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Re: Why are markets up?

#354956

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2020, 6:35 pm

I am becoming strongly of the opinion that the markets are being manipulated, whether by genuine group think or for pharma profits.

It is interesting to look at the mortality rates in the UK. One problem with this is that there are various numbers and I am sure other posters will have their own favourite sources. If you look at ONS such as:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... tember2020

There are many bullet points such as:

In September 2020, there were 39,827 deaths registered in England, 2,568 deaths more than the five-year average (2015 to 2019) for September; in Wales, there were 2,610 deaths registered, 135 deaths more than the five-year average for September.

This says that the increase in deaths was 2568/(39827-2568) = 6.8% compared to the five year average. This sounds like a lot, but if you look at the trends:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/G ... death-rate

one sees that even at these extended levels the current rate of death is a lot lower than historical values. One also does not know how many of the 2568 were definitely Covid and not something else given that more people are dying at home rather than in hospital where more measurements are made

According to this last link the increase in deaths began in 2013, long before Covid.

I have looked at other sources and get roughly similar numbers but there are variations.

As some one with a physics PhD who is used to looking at data I am struggling to see how these data justify the Draconian measures taken. Moreover, I was told by Whitty during the science and technology that there is no herd immunity for several virus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OliRvUN1hIA

2 hrs 18 minutes and on. He states that you do not acquire herd immunity for Malaria, HIV and Ebola which is true but for influenza one does and as I understand it most Covid virus like influenza have a peak and then there is herd immunity. Spanish flu did not continue indefinitely, was that due to immunity or did the virus mutate itself to be weaker?

The case for lockdowns and all these Draconian measures is as far as I can understand it almost non-existent. I am struggling to find any scientific rational for the approach taken by the experts who have made claims that I can not see as being credible.

Perhaps I have misunderstood things here, but as of what I have read and studied the case for the current lock down does not exist.

This all feels like some con either because the scientific community has got some kind of collective false group think or it is being organised by big pharma for profits.

I would be interested in other views.

Regards,

TUK020
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Re: Why are markets up?

#354960

Postby TUK020 » November 9th, 2020, 6:45 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
zico wrote:Having been a real market pessimist on the pandemic, I'm astonished to see the markets have only gone up by a measly 5.5% on the news from Pfizer/BioNTech of a vaccine with a success rate of over 90%.

I guess it's because some of the stocks were already sky high (low discount rates having forced the money there), and we still have all the WFH changes which I claim the pandemic has helped to force now meaning that oil, catering service etc. stocks are not going to make it back to previous levels for a long while. Plus low rates will continue to make it hard for banks to profit. And finally, the pharma also-rans like AZN are marked down. And finally finally firms still have huge debts, redundancy bills, and for some diluted equity. Does that cover it? :lol:


and you not even mentioned the opportunity for a Brexishambles to hit the fan...........

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Re: Why are markets up?

#354965

Postby dealtn » November 9th, 2020, 7:09 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:This all feels like some con either because the scientific community has got some kind of collective false group think or it is being organised by big pharma for profits.

I would be interested in other views.

Regards,


Not sure I would use September statistics as a rationale for locking down (or not) in November. Looking backwards to make judgement calls on an exponentially growing virus doesn't scream out "sensible" use of statistics to me. There is a thread on the Science Board that is much more suitable for such a discussion though, perhaps go there and read it?

(I wouldn't be going down the "big pharma for profits" route either when many companies have agreed to invest in vaccine prospects, and roll out, on a not for profit basis either.)

odysseus2000
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Re: Why are markets up?

#355006

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2020, 8:23 pm

dealtn
There is a thread on the Science Board that is much more suitable for such a discussion though, perhaps go there and read it?


Thank you!

Which thread did you have in mind there?

Regards,

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Re: Why are markets up?

#355059

Postby GoSeigen » November 10th, 2020, 5:33 am

GrahamPlatt wrote:While this is indeed wonderful news, I’m a bit surprised at the elation shown by the markets. I suppose it’s just the fact that there now seems to be an end in sight.

Per the Beeb

The two companies say they will be able to supply 50 million doses by the end of this year and around 1.3 billion by the end of 2021. Each person needs two doses.

The UK should get 10 million doses by the end of the year, with a further 30 million doses already ordered.

So we should be able to vaccinate ~8% of our population sometime early next year; the game’s far from over, and meanwhile the economic devastation continues.


Amazing how different perspectives can be. IMO this is non-news. Well it was news huge numbers of people were waiting for but as I have said elsewhere I don't think it will make any measurable economic difference. The virus scare will peter out next year vaccine or no vaccine. Hopefully the biggest effect of the announcement will be to bring a dose of reality to the public discourse.

GS

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Re: Why are markets up?

#355220

Postby PinkDalek » November 10th, 2020, 2:09 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn
There is a thread on the Science Board that is much more suitable for such a discussion though, perhaps go there and read it?


Thank you!

Which thread did you have in mind there?


Easy to find but for ease:

Coronavirus - modelling aspects only please
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=22737

930 posts over there.

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Re: Why are markets up?

#355230

Postby odysseus2000 » November 10th, 2020, 2:50 pm

pinkdalek
Easy to find but for ease:

Coronavirus - modelling aspects only please
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=22737

930 posts over there.


Thank you!

I thought the reference was to aspects I raised in my earlier post, rather than the modelling aspects and wondered if there was another thread somewhere that was being referred to.

Regards,

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Re: Why are markets up?

#355256

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 10th, 2020, 3:41 pm

Is the Biden Bounce now over, we wonders...

SP500 seems busy shaking off yesterday's gains. Do I predict a riot, or at least another lengthly phase of uncertainity:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54882647

AGWB and MMcC sticking to their version of history.

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Re: Why are markets up?

#355286

Postby stevensfo » November 10th, 2020, 4:45 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:I am becoming strongly of the opinion that the markets are being manipulated, whether by genuine group think or for pharma profits.

It is interesting to look at the mortality rates in the UK. One problem with this is that there are various numbers and I am sure other posters will have their own favourite sources. If you look at ONS such as:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... tember2020

There are many bullet points such as:

In September 2020, there were 39,827 deaths registered in England, 2,568 deaths more than the five-year average (2015 to 2019) for September; in Wales, there were 2,610 deaths registered, 135 deaths more than the five-year average for September.

This says that the increase in deaths was 2568/(39827-2568) = 6.8% compared to the five year average. This sounds like a lot, but if you look at the trends:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/G ... death-rate

one sees that even at these extended levels the current rate of death is a lot lower than historical values. One also does not know how many of the 2568 were definitely Covid and not something else given that more people are dying at home rather than in hospital where more measurements are made

According to this last link the increase in deaths began in 2013, long before Covid.

I have looked at other sources and get roughly similar numbers but there are variations.

As some one with a physics PhD who is used to looking at data I am struggling to see how these data justify the Draconian measures taken. Moreover, I was told by Whitty during the science and technology that there is no herd immunity for several virus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OliRvUN1hIA

2 hrs 18 minutes and on. He states that you do not acquire herd immunity for Malaria, HIV and Ebola which is true but for influenza one does and as I understand it most Covid virus like influenza have a peak and then there is herd immunity. Spanish flu did not continue indefinitely, was that due to immunity or did the virus mutate itself to be weaker?

The case for lockdowns and all these Draconian measures is as far as I can understand it almost non-existent. I am struggling to find any scientific rational for the approach taken by the experts who have made claims that I can not see as being credible.

Perhaps I have misunderstood things here, but as of what I have read and studied the case for the current lock down does not exist.

This all feels like some con either because the scientific community has got some kind of collective false group think or it is being organised by big pharma for profits.

I would be interested in other views.

Regards,


Excellent post. Thanks. I remember reading somewhere that the average death rate in some places was below average, though perhaps due to fewer traffic accidents during lockdown?

2 hrs 18 minutes and on. He states that you do not acquire herd immunity for Malaria, HIV and Ebola which is true but for influenza one does and as I understand it most Covid virus like influenza have a peak and then there is herd immunity. Spanish flu did not continue indefinitely, was that due to immunity or did the virus mutate itself to be weaker?


Well, Malaria is a protozoan, not a virus or bacteria, so far more difficult to kill. Spanish Flu is not a good example because it occurred at the end of the WWI when flow of information was tightly controlled almost everywhere except Spain, hence the name, even though it has nothing to do with Spain. But more importantly, antibiotics had not yet been discovered and most of those deaths are believed to have been caused by secondary bacterial infections of the lungs. Rather like Scarlet Fever, a terrible killer, especially of children, prior to antibiotics, yet we never hear of it now.

I think that the measures in place now are just to slow down the transmission rate till the vaccine is distributed. Personally, I would like to have seen far more emphasis on protecting the old and vulnerable. So let the schools carry on, but make it clear that people over a certain age or with certain ailments should be protected.

Steve

odysseus2000
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Re: Why are markets up?

#355381

Postby odysseus2000 » November 10th, 2020, 10:13 pm

stevensfo
Well, Malaria is a protozoan, not a virus or bacteria, so far more difficult to kill. Spanish Flu is not a good example because it occurred at the end of the WWI when flow of information was tightly controlled almost everywhere except Spain, hence the name, even though it has nothing to do with Spain. But more importantly, antibiotics had not yet been discovered and most of those deaths are believed to have been caused by secondary bacterial infections of the lungs. Rather like Scarlet Fever, a terrible killer, especially of children, prior to antibiotics, yet we never hear of it now.

I think that the measures in place now are just to slow down the transmission rate till the vaccine is distributed. Personally, I would like to have seen far more emphasis on protecting the old and vulnerable. So let the schools carry on, but make it clear that people over a certain age or with certain ailments should be protected.


What I was trying to say with Spanish flu was that for some reason it stopped being a problem. Yes, if there had been antibiotics then it may have been much less of a killer, but even with out modern medical munitions, it ceased to be a problem.

The whole vaccine business confuses me. On the one hand there seems to be no consensus on whether having had Covid one is then protected going forwards or not. If protection after infection does not continue, how can one expect a vaccine to work? Moreover, the recent press release about the new virus seems nonsense and more about driving up the share price of the companies and causing politicians to buy the product than about science. Yes, I know the manufacturers are saying they are selling at cost price, but they are also the ones determining what the cost price is. The results were not peer reviewed. It only works on folk who have not had the virus and requires two treatments and is said to be 90% effective. Yet if it is only 90% of those who haven't had the virus what does that mean for the folk who have had the virus.

I was particularly concerned by the press conference when various caveats were mentioned, but the overall theme was that this is a turning point. IMHO the scientists should have pointed out in much more detail all the caveats as when one does that it soon becomes clear imho that this was marketing. Likely some folk had a lot of calls and cashed in handsomely, but as a turning point it was imho, nothing of the sort and should not have been talked up by the scientists as they did.

More and more I am inclined towards thinking this pandemic has a real and dangerous core that has infected the scientific community with an emotional pessimism that is leading to profits for pharma and folk gaming the markets but which is massively inflated as a health risk, very like many previous madness of crowds episodes. We saw ridiculous behaviour in Tulip mania, more recently in the sub-prime mortgage market there was equally wild and unsustainable profiteering. In the case for the second Gulf war there were all manner of well paid experts convinced that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and yet none were ever found.

Regards,

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Re: Why are markets up?

#355424

Postby tikunetih » November 11th, 2020, 7:53 am

odysseus2000 wrote:that has infected the scientific community with an emotional pessimism


...says the science guy who was predicting a Global Depression back in March/April, while cooler heads suggested investors stayed disciplined, stuck to their plans and faded the panic.

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Re: Why are markets up?

#355428

Postby odysseus2000 » November 11th, 2020, 8:26 am

tikunetih wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:that has infected the scientific community with an emotional pessimism


...says the science guy who was predicting a Global Depression back in March/April, while cooler heads suggested investors stayed disciplined, stuck to their plans and faded the panic.


Ha Ha, Yes and for a while there were great short opportunities, but then price action flipped as did I and I have had one of my best "long" years ever.

When the price action changes, I change too.

Regards,

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Re: Why are markets up?

#355438

Postby TUK020 » November 11th, 2020, 9:12 am

tikunetih wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:that has infected the scientific community with an emotional pessimism


...says the science guy who was predicting a Global Depression back in March/April, while cooler heads suggested investors stayed disciplined, stuck to their plans and faded the panic.

Be fair, in Feb, he was saying it was all a fuss about nothing, and would have blown over in a few weeks


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