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US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

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TUK020
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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374414

Postby TUK020 » January 7th, 2021, 4:57 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:Five years ago we had a long conversation about this after he saw my DVDs of the Canadian biopunk drama "ReGenesis", in which a lot of advanced biology (and speculation with a lot of basis in fact) drove the various plots (e.g. practicalities of human cloning, weaponising ebola). His conclusion "this stuff is going to happen sooner than you think and it will be revolutionary when it does". He liked that the show almost made PCR testing seem glamorous :D

One of my favourite DVD collections!

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374425

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 7th, 2021, 5:14 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
77ss
We can all speculate about events, but its overwhelmingly hot air. Take a close look at WWH's holdings and ask yourself how vulnerable they are to any hypothetical assault on 'big pharma' in the US. Remember that alleged assaults on 'big pharma' have been around for decades. Somehow, they struggle on - wailing and gnashing their teeth on the way to the bank.


There are two potential attacks on big pharma.

One is the government, allows Amazon and Walmart, to source drugs where ever and introduces price caps and such, all the sort of stuff that Clinton threatened but did not deliver.

However, another and potentially bigger disruption is developments of new therapies at the gene level. It may shortly become possible to cure diseases by new processes that are much cheaper and much more effective than conventional pharmaceuticals. This is one of the great bull markets that Ark invest under Cathy Wood argue will transform medicine and hurt pharma.

To fully understand a lot of the potential of new drugs such as the mRNA approach for vaccines for Covid one has to either develop an understanding of the genetics or more simply look at the development times and costs. E.g. the UK Oxford vaccine was developed in about a year and costs £3 per treatment, far less than all the care time, medicines and oxygen that were given to the PM to get him through Covid. If more drugs are possible using similar low cost techniques it opens up vast cost savings for health insurance companies and massive loss of income for big pharma and huge wins for patients. As I understand it there are lot of potential low cost drugs in development.

Regards,

However is it not the case that the mRNA approach for vaccines for Covid was so rapidly developed because covid itself is an mRNA virus, and presumably such an approach may not be of use for other virus types which are not mRNA based?

If so, isn't the regular drug development pipeline here to stay?

Matt

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374430

Postby odysseus2000 » January 7th, 2021, 5:25 pm

However is it not the case that the mRNA approach for vaccines for Covid was so rapidly developed because covid itself is an mRNA virus, and presumably such an approach may not be of use for other virus types which are not mRNA based?

If so, isn't the regular drug development pipeline here to stay?

Matt


As I understand it the mRNA type of technology has many potential uses, but I am not an expert in this field, I am just relaying bits of information I come across in various articles.

Some investors and clinicians are ultra bullish on what this type of treatment can do to revolutionise medicine in many fields. I am not qualified to be able to say they are correct or not, but the speed of the anti-covid vaccine and its very low cost seems indicative of the powerful new methods they talk about.

Many are arguing that the traditional drug development pipeline is about to be replaced, others argue against this. If the bulls are right we will see some new miracle drugs in the short term. Cathay Wood was arguing that soon anyone born blind due to a particular illness will be cured quickly and at low cost and be able to see. This would be vindication and offer hope to many.

Regards,

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374441

Postby odysseus2000 » January 7th, 2021, 5:42 pm

Potential for mRNA technology to treat other illness:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12 ... seases-too

Regards,

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374568

Postby SalvorHardin » January 7th, 2021, 10:27 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:I haven't come across a decent investment candidate, though this isn't a sector in which I have any great confidence in my abilities to analyse (and I missed Moderna). It may very well be that this is a technology that doesn't emerge from the labs with one company's patents nailed to it, but instead is applied across an entire industry more like open source software.

Following a conversation with my biologist friend, earlier this evening I made a small purchase of 250 shares in Moderna.

One way to get to learn about an industry is to buy shares in a company in that industry. Gives you a bit of an incentive. I know you're supposed to do the research before buying but sometimes an exception can be made, and it's not as if I'm betting the farm :D

Time to watch a DVD. ReGenesis is calling methinks...

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374607

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 8th, 2021, 6:17 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
Is this related or of interest?
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-metal ... KKBN29A1PZ

I would not be surprised if there are breaches into the block chain and if so that could murder crypto and bring back gold. Just how secure the block chain is to a consorted AI attack is unclear to me.

Furthermore, aren't bitcoins themselves becoming computationally more resource demanding to make?

Matt


Ever since I can remember there have been calls for bull markets in commodities and during China building itself there was, but China is now built to a level where the incremental increases are small. Moreover, plastics have replaced copper in plumbing, aluminium is replacing copper in wiring. I have trouble seeing where a commodity boom is coming from and moving into scope is the mining of asteroids which could provide huge new supplies. There look to be commercial deposits on the moon too.

Perhaps the commodities boom could come from new drives in 1) pursuit of renewable energy sources 2) robotics 3) improved communications infrastructures.

Mining asteroids will probably occur, but more space-tech research/progress would be initially required, and Planet Earth-side commodities would presumably be needed to feed that?

Matt

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374653

Postby dspp » January 8th, 2021, 9:45 am

SalvorHardin wrote:
SalvorHardin wrote:I haven't come across a decent investment candidate, though this isn't a sector in which I have any great confidence in my abilities to analyse (and I missed Moderna). It may very well be that this is a technology that doesn't emerge from the labs with one company's patents nailed to it, but instead is applied across an entire industry more like open source software.

Following a conversation with my biologist friend, earlier this evening I made a small purchase of 250 shares in Moderna.

One way to get to learn about an industry is to buy shares in a company in that industry. Gives you a bit of an incentive. I know you're supposed to do the research before buying but sometimes an exception can be made, and it's not as if I'm betting the farm :D

Time to watch a DVD. ReGenesis is calling methinks...


You might want to try diversification in that sector using one of the ARK funds. They mostly seem to come with TSLA attached.

ARKW: 10.48%
ARKQ: 12.04%
ARKK: 10.54%

ARKG is the biopharma one. https://ark-funds.com/arkg

I am trying to figure out how to access them from the UK, see viewtopic.php?f=26&p=374499#p374499

regards, dspp

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374663

Postby PeterGray » January 8th, 2021, 10:39 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:However is it not the case that the mRNA approach for vaccines for Covid was so rapidly developed because covid itself is an mRNA virus, and presumably such an approach may not be of use for other virus types which are not mRNA based?


Matt


No. There is no such thing as an mRNA virus. mRNA is messenger RNA - it is produced in a normal cell nucleus from the cell's DNA, and carries a message to other parts of the cell to control protein production. The Pfizer vaccine makes human cells produce a harmless protein that mimics a structure on the covid virus - the spike - and so activates the body's immune system against it.

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374682

Postby odysseus2000 » January 8th, 2021, 11:17 am

Perhaps the commodities boom could come from new drives in 1) pursuit of renewable energy sources 2) robotics 3) improved communications infrastructures.

Mining asteroids will probably occur, but more space-tech research/progress would be initially required, and Planet Earth-side commodities would presumably be needed to feed that?

Matt


There is certainly demand for Nickel for batteries and copper for connections, although now competing with Aluminium, copper is a much better element. The jjc Bloomberg copper etf bottoming around $32 last year and then ramped, closing at $56 yesterday.

Robotics will have similar demands as will BEV transport unless one of the solid state technologies takes off such as the QS (QuantumScape) battery that VW are keen on.

Communications seems to be predominantly wireless and fibre.

Additionally many things are now being recycled efficiently so that new mining needs are reduced.

For space mining its likely a trade off between the costs of lifting stuff into orbit and the foundry cost of doing things at the asteroid. Many believe asteroid mining will be mostly robotic, but there has currently been no mining as far as I know.

Regards,

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374742

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 8th, 2021, 1:17 pm

PeterGray wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:However is it not the case that the mRNA approach for vaccines for Covid was so rapidly developed because covid itself is an mRNA virus, and presumably such an approach may not be of use for other virus types which are not mRNA based?


Matt


No. There is no such thing as an mRNA virus. mRNA is messenger RNA - it is produced in a normal cell nucleus from the cell's DNA, and carries a message to other parts of the cell to control protein production. The Pfizer vaccine makes human cells produce a harmless protein that mimics a structure on the covid virus - the spike - and so activates the body's immune system against it.

Hmm...

Somewhat off topic.

I know exactly what the m stands for.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_cla ... NA_viruses
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK8174/

Covid is classed as being an RNA virus. More specifically a single stranded RNA virus. Perhaps it's an SS RNA virus, I'm fairly sure I'd read elsewhere that it's an "SS mRNA virus" too. I'm not an expert, and tend to forget everything single minutaie.

Matt

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374763

Postby TUK020 » January 8th, 2021, 2:28 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:Time to watch a DVD. ReGenesis is calling methinks...

A bit OT, but have you tried "The Expanse" on Amazon Prime?

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#374795

Postby SalvorHardin » January 8th, 2021, 3:30 pm

TUK020 wrote:
SalvorHardin wrote:Time to watch a DVD. ReGenesis is calling methinks...

A bit OT, but have you tried "The Expanse" on Amazon Prime?

Very OT but yes I have.

Best science-fiction series since Babylon 5 IMHO

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#375294

Postby PeterGray » January 9th, 2021, 8:17 pm

As you say Matt, it's an RNA virus, not an mRNA one. However whether the genetic code in a virus is DNA or RNA is not really relevent to the action of mRNA vaccines. They have the potential to work against a wide range of viruses.

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#375514

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 10th, 2021, 3:59 pm

Anyway, getting away the mRNA story, I assume that a Biden+Democrat congress could result also in:

1. More US businesses being temporarily closed down
2. More locking down, masking wearing etc. Will this reduce shopping and stopping at the likes of MacDonalds, or visiting entertainments?
3. More financial stimulus to "mitigate" the effects of the above on living standards and on 401ks.

since JB wants (I believe) to be much stronger on Covid than DJT. I guess we'll have to wait and see how that pans out.

Matt

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#380985

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 26th, 2021, 4:47 pm

After just watching "Active Measures", which is excellent, I'm reckoning on big investments in cyber security:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Active-Measure ... B07NRW5PHG
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/a ... n-meddling

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN29R18I
https://www.channelfutures.com/mssp-ins ... ersecurity

A no brainer really. Glad to see the PCT (Polar capital trust) which I hold, have positions in CyberArk, Crowdstrike, Elastic and Tenable, but I'm pondering finding a more focussed ETF/IT etc.

Matt

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#380998

Postby jackdaww » January 26th, 2021, 5:29 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:After just watching "Active Measures", which is excellent, I'm reckoning on big investments in cyber security:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Active-Measure ... B07NRW5PHG
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/a ... n-meddling

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN29R18I
https://www.channelfutures.com/mssp-ins ... ersecurity

A no brainer really. Glad to see the PCT (Polar capital trust) which I hold, have positions in CyberArk, Crowdstrike, Elastic and Tenable, but I'm pondering finding a more focussed ETF/IT etc.

Matt


============================

ISPY ?? (legal and general ETF )

holds

Fastly Inc 7.85%
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc Class A 3.36%
Splunk Inc 2.94%
Cloudflare Inc 2.85%
OneSpan Inc 2.73%
Palo Alto Networks Inc 2.64%
Fortinet Inc 2.51%
Avast PLC 2.51%
VMware Inc 2.38%
Fingerprint Cards AB B 2.30%

:)

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#381063

Postby odysseus2000 » January 26th, 2021, 10:59 pm

Are these not in a commodity business with commodity pricing?

If so then it is a sector to the market to avoid as commodity pricing is low pricing as business compete on price alone.

Regards,

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#381103

Postby JamesMuenchen » January 27th, 2021, 8:09 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Are these not in a commodity business with commodity pricing?

If so then it is a sector to the market to avoid as commodity pricing is low pricing as business compete on price alone.

Regards,

No.

They require a lot of R&D, infrastructure spending and benefit from huge network effects.

Many operate on a subscription basis, so have recurring revenues.

By the way, few of those listed are "cyber-security" firms.

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#381126

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 27th, 2021, 9:19 am

JamesMuenchen wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Are these not in a commodity business with commodity pricing?

If so then it is a sector to the market to avoid as commodity pricing is low pricing as business compete on price alone.

Regards,

No.

They require a lot of R&D, infrastructure spending and benefit from huge network effects.

Many operate on a subscription basis, so have recurring revenues.

By the way, few of those listed are "cyber-security" firms.

Interesting. But given my OP, discussion of cybersecurity and related investments are still on-topic in this thread, IMO.

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Re: US and World Economy and Markets after confirmation of Democrat controlled congress

#381215

Postby JamesMuenchen » January 27th, 2021, 1:36 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
JamesMuenchen wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Are these not in a commodity business with commodity pricing?

If so then it is a sector to the market to avoid as commodity pricing is low pricing as business compete on price alone.

Regards,

No.

They require a lot of R&D, infrastructure spending and benefit from huge network effects.

Many operate on a subscription basis, so have recurring revenues.

By the way, few of those listed are "cyber-security" firms.

Interesting. But given my OP, discussion of cybersecurity and related investments are still on-topic in this thread, IMO.


Well, I never said it was off-topic.

My point to Ody is that they are more like non-commodity utilities. If you're customers need a large-scale project to change provider, then you are not a commodity business.

My last point was that some of the companies mentioned are by no means "cyber security". Eg, Elastic, Fastly, Splunk.
That's not to say they're not good investments - I hold Fastly and have held Elastic.

(And yes, Elastic might have a security offering but its core business is search)


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