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Inflation

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scrumpyjack
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Re: Inflation

#429328

Postby scrumpyjack » July 21st, 2021, 2:54 pm

1nvest wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:What I fail to “get” about inflationary relationships is why it is that equity prices tend to fall with rising inflation.


Is this even true? How do you know?

GS

If the nominal price remains unchanged then the price declines in real terms with rising/higher inflation :)


Inflation will affect companies very differently depending on the nature of their business. A manufacturing business will be very hard hit because their input costs will rise whilst profit will be measured based on the historic cost of their materials etc rather than replacement cost. This results in them needing ever more capital and to being taxed on unreal profits. This was the reason for oil companies many decades ago changing to a replacement cost accounting basis, and the Labour government in the ‘70s, having overseen a drastic rise in UK inflation (27% at one point) had to introduce special measures to stop much of British industry going bust.
But businesses, eg services, that do not need much working capital, can carry on pretty unaffected.

odysseus2000
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Re: Inflation

#429362

Postby odysseus2000 » July 21st, 2021, 3:55 pm

scrumpyjack
Inflation will affect companies very differently depending on the nature of their business. A manufacturing business will be very hard hit because their input costs will rise whilst profit will be measured based on the historic cost of their materials etc rather than replacement cost. This results in them needing ever more capital and to being taxed on unreal profits. This was the reason for oil companies many decades ago changing to a replacement cost accounting basis, and the Labour government in the ‘70s, having overseen a drastic rise in UK inflation (27% at one point) had to introduce special measures to stop much of British industry going bust.
But businesses, eg services, that do not need much working capital, can carry on pretty unaffected.


Yes, but things have changed.

Manufacturers no longer keep a lot of stock, mostly operating on just in time ordering.

Secondly and more importantly the UK economy is predominantly services (80% https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/re ... s/sn02786/)

As you note these business are less troubled by inflation.

Consequently the old inflation experience may no longer be a guide to what might happen going forwards.

Regards,

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Re: Inflation

#443977

Postby odysseus2000 » September 20th, 2021, 11:40 pm

Looking at what is going on I have to conclude the European directive of drivers hours is a master stroke. This piece of legislation has broken what was a good and efficient system that filled all the stores with product and lead to deflation.

The reduction in HGV drivers hours has created huge shortages. My local supermarket has empty shelves, the local hospital has shortages of blood storage tubes so they are only doing emergency blood tests,... On and on it goes, shortages of everything and with that comes panic and folk are bidding up the price of all kinds of things.

In essence we now have a war time blockage economy, quasi rationing of goods and in the by and by all the money that the central banks have spent will be eaten away by inflation.

It is a brilliant piece of tactical politics to save the central banks, so long as it doesn't get out of control and here is the danger for unlike any other period of inflation there are now alternatives to fiat currencies. No one now is ramping gold, it may happen and for now no one is ramping cryto currencies, that has happened already by more foresighted folk than me, but it seems likely that both are going to ramp very strongly in the by and by.

At some point a great opportunity to short bonds looks to be likely. Fiat currencies look extremely vulnerable and anyone relying on savings is likely to get creamed.

We are currently seeing equities sell off, with once sought after Chinese equities unloved. If I am right with this analysis the only defence against this created inflation is equities, crypto currency and property and we are getting a nice sale in equities setting up more attractive entry points. Once I would have added oil and gas, but that seems dangerous to me as there are now renewable electricity and storage coming that will compete directly with oil and gas, although there is a window when these commodities may ramp.

Is my reasoning wrong. If so what am I getting wrong?

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murraypaul
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Re: Inflation

#444149

Postby murraypaul » September 21st, 2021, 2:25 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Looking at what is going on I have to conclude the European directive of drivers hours is a master stroke. This piece of legislation has broken what was a good and efficient system that filled all the stores with product and lead to deflation.

The reduction in HGV drivers hours has created huge shortages. My local supermarket has empty shelves, the local hospital has shortages of blood storage tubes so they are only doing emergency blood tests,... On and on it goes, shortages of everything and with that comes panic and folk are bidding up the price of all kinds of things.


And that is all to do with Europe changing driver hour rules?
Nothing to do with covid or brexit, just Europe's fault?

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Re: Inflation

#444169

Postby odysseus2000 » September 21st, 2021, 3:42 pm

MurrayPaul
And that is all to do with Europe changing driver hour rules?
Nothing to do with covid or brexit, just Europe's fault?


The direct driver for shortages in UK stores is the introduction of new working practices for HGV drivers.

If it was Covid or Brexit related, it would have happened when Brexit happened and/or when Covid was at its peak.

The time scale of when this is happening tells you it is neither Brexit or Covid driven.

Regards,

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Re: Inflation

#444196

Postby TUK020 » September 21st, 2021, 5:12 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
MurrayPaul
And that is all to do with Europe changing driver hour rules?
Nothing to do with covid or brexit, just Europe's fault?


The direct driver for shortages in UK stores is the introduction of new working practices for HGV drivers.

If it was Covid or Brexit related, it would have happened when Brexit happened and/or when Covid was at its peak.

The time scale of when this is happening tells you it is neither Brexit or Covid driven.

Regards,

And Elon is in on the game? What, he delayed FSD purely to exacerbate the driver shortage?

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Re: Inflation

#444354

Postby murraypaul » September 22nd, 2021, 10:30 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
MurrayPaul
And that is all to do with Europe changing driver hour rules?
Nothing to do with covid or brexit, just Europe's fault?

The direct driver for shortages in UK stores is the introduction of new working practices for HGV drivers.

Care to explain how exactly?
Do you know what the changes to driver rules were?
If it was Covid or Brexit related, it would have happened when Brexit happened and/or when Covid was at its peak.

No.
At the height of covid, most stores and businesses were closed, so the demand for drivers was greatly reduced, by more than the additional demand for home deliveries increased it.
This meant that the lower supply of foreign drivers, as those that couldn't be furloughed returned to their home countries, didn't affect output.
It is only as everything has opened up again that base demand for drivers has returned, which then combined with the additional demand for home deliveries, and the lower supply of foreign drivers, is causing the shortage.

It doesn't require an international conspiracy to explain.

There is also a more mundane, longer term, consideration, which is that there was a gradually increasing shortage of HGV drivers even before all of this happened. It isn't seen as an attractive career, and the average age of truck drivers is steadily increasing, as not enough younger drivers are being recruited. This is happening the world over.
Last edited by murraypaul on September 22nd, 2021, 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

murraypaul
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Re: Inflation

#444356

Postby murraypaul » September 22nd, 2021, 10:32 am

TUK020 wrote:And Elon is in on the game? What, he delayed FSD purely to exacerbate the driver shortage?


<tinfoil on>
You aren't thinking big enough.
Elon has personally orchestrated the driver shortage to force governments to accept self-driving trucks.
(In this alternate universe Tesla has actually been able to produce self-driving trucks.)
<tinfoil off>

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Re: Inflation

#444358

Postby pje16 » September 22nd, 2021, 10:41 am

This is a good article on inflation
Point 6 is worth noting
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentar ... y-ii521313

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Re: Inflation

#444427

Postby odysseus2000 » September 22nd, 2021, 1:12 pm

murraypaul
No.
At the height of covid, most stores and businesses were closed, so the demand for drivers was greatly reduced, by more than the additional demand for home deliveries increased it.
This meant that the lower supply of foreign drivers, as those that couldn't be furloughed returned to their home countries, didn't affect output.
It is only as everything has opened up again that base demand for drivers has returned, which then combined with the additional demand for home deliveries, and the lower supply of foreign drivers, is causing the shortage.

It doesn't require an international conspiracy to explain.

There is also a more mundane, longer term, consideration, which is that there was a gradually increasing shortage of HGV drivers even before all of this happened. It isn't seen as an attractive career, and the average age of truck drivers is steadily increasing, as not enough younger drivers are being recruited. This is happening the world over.


No, during the pandemic there were no shortages of goods in supermarkets. Sure other stores closed but there was still vast amounts of stuff being moved and as the pandemic wound down there were still plenty of goods and no shortages. Then came the regulations and that has crippled the freight transport industry and lead to the need for 100k+ new drivers and all the shortages.

The idea that all over the world people do not want to be truck drivers and that those who retire are not being replaced is a very good conspiracy theory: People conspiring not to do relatively well paid blue collar jobs.

Like it or not we are going through a world government policy that they call The Great Reset. Governments regularly act in unison when it suits there purposes. The methods being used are to introduce restrictive policies that lead to shortages and drive up inflation.

Sure this will make life hard for their voters and lead to many unnecessary bad things happening, but if you know any politicians or have studied the history of what governments do this is par for the course. Politicians care nothing for the voters and in general have no concept of the life of a working class person. Many members of the cabinet are very wealthy, the chancellor exceptionally so. Although many voters will suffer due to this inflation policy the politicians won't.

Regard,

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Re: Inflation

#444431

Postby pje16 » September 22nd, 2021, 1:21 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:No, during the pandemic there were no shortages of goods in supermarkets.
Regard,

Really, in March/April 2020 my local Tesco superstore had no bread, mik, flour or pasta or very limited supplies of for 2 or 3 weeks and that's in London not in the sticks !

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Re: Inflation

#444443

Postby TUK020 » September 22nd, 2021, 1:35 pm

pje16 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:No, during the pandemic there were no shortages of goods in supermarkets.
Regard,

Really, in March/April 2020 my local Tesco superstore had no bread, mik, flour or pasta or very limited supplies of for 2 or 3 weeks and that's in London not in the sticks !

That's a very last decade focus

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Re: Inflation

#444445

Postby odysseus2000 » September 22nd, 2021, 1:42 pm

pje16 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:No, during the pandemic there were no shortages of goods in supermarkets.
Regard,

Really, in March/April 2020 my local Tesco superstore had no bread, mik, flour or pasta or very limited supplies of for 2 or 3 weeks and that's in London not in the sticks !


Yes, for a little while when folk were panic buying there were shortages (toilet rolls, pasta...), but the shortages were soon made up. Now the nearest supermarket to me has all manner of shortages of stuff like sweets, fruit juices, meat...that were not in short supply before the last month or so.

Regards,

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Re: Inflation

#444454

Postby pje16 » September 22nd, 2021, 2:02 pm

TUK020 wrote:
pje16 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:No, during the pandemic there were no shortages of goods in supermarkets.
Regard,

Really, in March/April 2020 my local Tesco superstore had no bread, mik, flour or pasta or very limited supplies of for 2 or 3 weeks and that's in London not in the sticks !

That's a very last decade focus

Try last year :roll: :roll:

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Re: Inflation

#444631

Postby murraypaul » September 23rd, 2021, 9:25 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
murraypaul
No.
At the height of covid, most stores and businesses were closed, so the demand for drivers was greatly reduced, by more than the additional demand for home deliveries increased it.
This meant that the lower supply of foreign drivers, as those that couldn't be furloughed returned to their home countries, didn't affect output.
It is only as everything has opened up again that base demand for drivers has returned, which then combined with the additional demand for home deliveries, and the lower supply of foreign drivers, is causing the shortage.

It doesn't require an international conspiracy to explain.

There is also a more mundane, longer term, consideration, which is that there was a gradually increasing shortage of HGV drivers even before all of this happened. It isn't seen as an attractive career, and the average age of truck drivers is steadily increasing, as not enough younger drivers are being recruited. This is happening the world over.


No, during the pandemic there were no shortages of goods in supermarkets.


a) Yes there were.
b) What does that have to do with what I said? You have said nothing to refute:
At the height of covid, most stores and businesses were closed, so the demand for drivers was greatly reduced, by more than the additional demand for home deliveries increased it.


Then came the regulations and that has crippled the freight transport industry and lead to the need for 100k+ new drivers and all the shortages.


I'll ask again, do you know what the new regulations are?
Please actually look them up, then explain how they have caused a need to 100k+ new drivers.

The idea that all over the world people do not want to be truck drivers and that those who retire are not being replaced is a very good conspiracy theory: People conspiring not to do relatively well paid blue collar jobs.


From 2016 - https://www.pallex.com/media/1081/bigge ... vealed.pdf
"Main reasons for driver shortages - Aging population of drivers"

From 2017 - https://www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr1104.pdf
"The purpose of this study was to gather evidence about the health effects of working into older age, by focusing on the UK logistics and transport sector where the average age is increasing, and recruitment is proving challenging. The Freight Transport Association anticipates that current skill shortages for heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers will continue. "

From 2018 - https://www.kinaxia.co.uk/akw/news/agin ... -the-cure/
"We also face an image crisis relative to the profession; once romanticised with themes of camaraderie, pin-ups and adventure, people have wised up to the reality that the job can be lonesome, unsociable and frustrating."

From 2019 - https://tenlivegroup.com/multimodal-201 ... -solution/
"in 2018 the average age of HGV drivers was 48. With 12% of HGV drivers over 60 and only 2% of drivers under the age of 25, many drivers are coming up to retirement and not enough young drivers are coming through to replace them"

This is not a new issue, it has been a growing problem for many years.
Those articles are just from a few minutes of searching, you could find hundreds more, going back much further in time.

Like it or not we are going through a world government policy that they call The Great Reset.

No, people like you are not bothering to do any research, and are instead spouting conspiracy theory nonsense.

https://www.sccgltd.com/featured-articl ... -in-sight/
Why is there a shortage of HGV drivers?

Before 2019, when the shortage was around 60,000 the issues were mostly about low pay, poor working conditions, an aging workforce and the cost of training. Those challenges are still with us. Then came the Brexit effect and COVID-19 which both had a compounding effect on the scarcity of HGV drivers.

The visa problem and the Brexit effect

In 2019 there were around 60,000 HGV drivers from EU member states who were residing and working in the UK. The uncertainty about future rights to live and work in the UK, as well as COVID-19, forced many drivers to go back to their states. Most have not been able to return to the UK to work due to visa restrictions. This has created competition between hauliers to fill vacancies.

Low wages and poor working conditions

Low pay is a major factor, but poor working conditions and being away from home are major complaints. Sleeping in an HGV overnight on long trips, known as “tramping”, is often the reason a driver leaves the industry. The lack of clean, safe, secure and well-priced overnight facilities are deterrents. Such conditions make it unattractive for new entrants to the industry. There are easier day-work and van driving jobs available.

Aging HGV driver population

According to the RHA, the average age of an HGV driver is 55, with less than 1% under the age of 25. HGV drivers are required by law to do 35 hours of periodic training within a 5-year period to keep their Driver Certificate of Professional Competence (CPC). Many older drivers are reluctant to do this, so they leave. Many haulage operators will not take on drivers under 25, even though they are qualified, as the insurance premiums would be too high.

Recruitment drives

Despite active recruitment initiatives to attract women into HGV driving, only 1% – 3% of drivers are female. There are some initiatives by major distributors and retailers to encourage warehouse staff to retrain – “warehouse-to-wheels” but progress is slow. Fewer young people are even learning to drive which would be the first step towards a career on the road. There are not enough attractive reasons to join the industry, as a result, the HGV driver population is shrinking.

Training and testing

The full cost of training to become an HGV driver including certifications – around £3,500 – is a deterrent. IR35 tax reforms, which require agency workers to pay more tax have driven applicants away. In addition, there has been a drop in producing qualified drivers since 2020, partially due to Covid-19 shutdowns. Only 15,000 were able to complete the training successfully in 2020 – a drop of 25,000 from the previous year.

murraypaul
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Re: Inflation

#444651

Postby murraypaul » September 23rd, 2021, 10:12 am

It seems unlike that changes to EU driver rules have caused HGV driver shortages in...

Australia:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-16/ ... /100139772
A national shortage of truck drivers is causing "major challenges" as demand to move goods across Australia continues to rise, unabated by the pandemic.
[...]
'Our average age of a driver is in their 50s and so we’ve got a lot of drivers who will be retiring over the next 10 to 15 years," she said.


Japan:
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-relea ... 2021-08-10
The aging workforce and strong growth in online shopping have exacerbated the shortage of truck drivers. The driver shortage is a widespread problem faced by global logistics companies, especially Japan, which is one of the most severely affected countries because of an aging population.


Mexico:
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mexic ... ck-drivers
The reasons include an aging population of drivers, low driver retention rates, challenging working conditions and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.
[...]
IRU said Mexico, like many other countries, has struggled to attract younger people and women to the transportation sector.

Only 2% of truck drivers globally are women and all countries surveyed saw the percentage of female truck drivers fall. The number of truck drivers under 25 fell nearly everywhere in 2020, from already low levels down to 5% in Europe and Russia, 6% in Mexico and 7% in Turkey.


Canada:
https://www.trucknews.com/blogs/underst ... -shortage/
    There are nearly 20,000 vacant truck driver positions in Canada.
    61% of employers report they can’t find all the drivers they need.
    7.4% of all truck driver jobs are unfilled, compared to 3.3% of other non-driver jobs.
    The unemployment rate among truck drivers is much lower than the rest of the workforce (6.2% for truck drivers as compared to 9.8% for the rest of the workforce). However, if every currently unemployed truck driver were hired into a vacant position, there would still be more than 11,000 unfilled jobs.


Just Google for 'hgv driver shortage <country name>', chances are you will get results.

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Re: Inflation

#444678

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2021, 11:50 am

So let me see if I have got this right.

Your thesis is that the shortages we are seeing all over the place on a daily basis are due to a sudden and world wide decline in the availability and desire of folk to drive HGV.

The European legislation that restricted hours worked etc, came in August of 2020 with measures that include:

a requirement for drivers’ to ‘return home’ every 4 weeks;
a ban on taking regular weekly rest periods in the driver’s vehicle;
a new definition of ‘non-commercial carriage’;
more flexibility on the scheduling of the rest periods for some drivers on international carriage of goods;
new provisions for rests and breaks for drivers when journeys involve transport by ferry or by rail;
a new requirement to keep a full record of all other work.

https://www.backhousejones.co.uk/change ... gust-2020/

There are numerous articles some of which you link to that support this thesis. Would you expect to find anything different. All the journalists tasked to explain why there are shortages in shops are looking for reasons and are parroting the same stuff world wide. But drivers do not, worldwide, all decide to retire at about the same time in such large numbers that freight supplies are crippled unless there is some new reason. The all retire at once argument makes no sense at all.

However, by imposing legislation across the freight industry as the Europeans have done creates an industry wide trouble and the folk who drive HGV start to earn less and have their lives messed with and decide that they don't want less money, forced behaviour and decide after trying it for a bit, that what was an attractive job is no longer so and they jack in and this then leads to a snowballing in the decline of freight transport and a quasi blockade that leads to the shortages we are seeing, With shortages we have the wealthy folk saying that they don't want to be without and so they will pay more to anyone who can deliver what ever they need. We then have the classic recipe for inflation: Too much money chasing too few goods.

Running in parallel with all of this is the indebtedness of most of the western democracies caused by the 2008 crisis and support measures taken and then by the Covid crisis and heavy spending by governments such that most nations have large sovereign debts.

There are ongoing costs of servicing the huge debt burdens which suck money from other projects to keep re-paying the interest and such and this impacts the ability of Governments to spend on other things. The level of debt is so large, in many cases several times GDP that the debt can not be paid off by more taxes. However, the effect of the debt can be reduced if the value of money is reduced, i.e. if there is substantial inflation.

The Great Reset is not being presented by crackpots but by the great and good in the world's governments:

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset

It talks about the need for:

There is an urgent need for global stakeholders to cooperate in simultaneously managing the direct consequences of the COVID-19 crisis. To improve the state of the world, the World Economic Forum is starting The Great Reset initiative.

What does this mean? What are the direct consequences of the COVID-19 crisis? What does "managing the direct consequences" mean?

Primarily it means re-establishing the power and capability of the governments and that requires that the great burdens of sovereign debt are reduced and the way they have chosen to do this is to inflate money away. The problem for the governments has been how to create inflation. In the 1970's this was done by the OPEC tripling the price of crude and at the same time putting out a smoke screen that this was not about beating up the west for supporting Israel, but was instead a natural price rise caused by the arrival of peak oil. Predictions that by 2000 there would be no oil left. Folk went around and spoke on the media about how economies would collapse when the oil was gone and how justified OPEC was in putting up prices. By 2010, ten years after the expected end of oil, there was more oil being produced than ever before.

Meanwhile scientists had become alarmed at the change in the mix of world's atmosphere and CO2 has replaced peak oil as the thing experts all over the world relentless talk about while doing very little to fix it. Sure we are seeing much more renewables but moves towards a real UK renewable economy are being done by taxing consumers rather than raising equity capital, thereby generating a whole load of profits for the politicians friends and via kick backs for themselves and that same time impoverishing consumers. Currently in the UK for example we have very little storage, (no significant battery factories), which is essential for a renewable economy.

The politicians want to be able to spend on renewables, enriching themselves in the process, but are hampered by the excessive debt and are therefore doing what it takes to make this debt more manageable by creating inflation and are just as was done with peak oil spreading mis-information and marking anyone who speaks out about it as a mad conspiracy theorist or such, exactly what was done to anyone who said peak oil was a joke.

Regards,

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Re: Inflation

#444688

Postby murraypaul » September 23rd, 2021, 12:33 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:So let me see if I have got this right.

Your thesis is that the shortages we are seeing all over the place on a daily basis are due to a sudden and world wide decline in the availability and desire of folk to drive HGV.


No. You clearly haven't read anything I've posted.
The increasing age profile of HGV drivers and the difficulty in recruiting younger drivers has been a problem for many years.
As the articles I've posted, from before covid and before the EU driver changes, show.
I'm saying the exact opposite of a sudden decline, I'm saying a slow and steady decline over many years.
What is sudden is the increase in demand as economies start to work at full output again after a year of being largely shut off.

The European legislation that restricted hours worked etc, came in August of 2020 with measures that include:

a requirement for drivers’ to ‘return home’ every 4 weeks;
a ban on taking regular weekly rest periods in the driver’s vehicle;
a new definition of ‘non-commercial carriage’;
more flexibility on the scheduling of the rest periods for some drivers on international carriage of goods;
new provisions for rests and breaks for drivers when journeys involve transport by ferry or by rail;
a new requirement to keep a full record of all other work.


Ok, that was part a, well Googled. Part b was to explain your claim that they lead to a shortage of 100k UK HGV drivers?

How exactly is the EU driver changes causing HGV driver shortages in the US?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ers-abroad
The U.S. has been grappling with a chronic lack of drivers for years, but the shortage reached crisis levels because of the pandemic, which simultaneously sent demand for shipped goods soaring while touching off a surge in early retirements.

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Re: Inflation

#444693

Postby TUK020 » September 23rd, 2021, 12:37 pm

murraypaul wrote:No. You clearly haven't read anything I've posted.

'fraid you will get used to that on Macro Topics

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Re: Inflation

#444728

Postby dealtn » September 23rd, 2021, 2:01 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
The Great Reset is not being presented by crackpots but by the great and good in the world's governments:

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset



It was established in 1971 as a not-for-profit foundation and is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland. It is independent, impartial and not tied to any special interests.

I'm not suggesting they are crackpots, I have no time to establish their credentials. You clearly already have so can you explain the reference to "the great and good in the world's governments" please?


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