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Inflation

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odysseus2000
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Re: Inflation

#444732

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2021, 2:25 pm

murray paul
No. You clearly haven't read anything I've posted.
The increasing age profile of HGV drivers and the difficulty in recruiting younger drivers has been a problem for many years.
As the articles I've posted, from before covid and before the EU driver changes, show.
I'm saying the exact opposite of a sudden decline, I'm saying a slow and steady decline over many years.
What is sudden is the increase in demand as economies start to work at full output again after a year of being largely shut off.


I did read it all, lots of repetition but I still read it, but what do all these folk all over place tell us that is useful.

All the journalists all over the world are simply parroting what they believe to be an explanation, even if it is nonsense.

During the 70's inflation, every media outlet was full of folk saying oil would run out.

The media are predominantly useless as a source of reliable information that one can use for investment/trading purposes. You have to look at what is happening and think about everything and draw conclusions from what happens, not what folk in the media say.

Regards,
Last edited by odysseus2000 on September 23rd, 2021, 2:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

odysseus2000
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Re: Inflation

#444735

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2021, 2:35 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
The Great Reset is not being presented by crackpots but by the great and good in the world's governments:

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset



It was established in 1971 as a not-for-profit foundation and is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland. It is independent, impartial and not tied to any special interests.

I'm not suggesting they are crackpots, I have no time to establish their credentials. You clearly already have so can you explain the reference to "the great and good in the world's governments" please?


This is a confidential list of all the attendees at the 2020 conference group by power as in Level 1 Executive, Level 1 Royal, all the way down to Level 7.

Peruse the list and you will find many CEO, Royals, Academics, Ex Prime Ministers etc:

https://qz.com/1787763/the-list-of-dele ... -in-davos/

Regards,

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Re: Inflation

#444736

Postby murraypaul » September 23rd, 2021, 2:37 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:I did read it all, lots of repetition but I still read it, but what do all these folk all over place tell us that is useful.

That there has been an issue with HGV driver numbers for many many years, worldwide.
You may disagree with their statements about why there was a shortage, but do you all think they were making up the fact that there was one?

All the journalists all over the world are simply parroting what they believe to be an explanation, even if it is nonsense.

You see, to me, that is exactly what you are doing.

The media are predominantly useless as a source of reliable information that one can use for investment/trading purposes. You have to look at what is happening and think about everything and draw conclusions from what happens, not what folk in the media say.

Your conclusion is that a worldwide driver shortage that is documented to have been a problem for many many years is explained by a EU regulation that came into effect last year.

That is not rational.

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Re: Inflation

#444743

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2021, 2:50 pm

murray paul
All the journalists all over the world are simply parroting what they believe to be an explanation, even if it is nonsense.

You see, to me, that is exactly what you are doing.

The media are predominantly useless as a source of reliable information that one can use for investment/trading purposes. You have to look at what is happening and think about everything and draw conclusions from what happens, not what folk in the media say.

Your conclusion is that a worldwide driver shortage that is documented to have been a problem for many many years is explained by a EU regulation that came into effect last year.

That is not rational.


I am not parroting what the media are saying I am telling you what is happening now and why.

We have only recently begun to see shortages. The system was working, everyone got what they wanted, inflation was low.

Suddenly, not long after a European Directive, we have shortages of everything and rising prices and rapidly increasing inflation.

This is not a slow declining process like what would happen if one subscribed to the media view. It is a manufactured policy to drive up inflation as fast as possible, covered by a smoke screen that it is all due to HGV drivers.

Regards,

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Re: Inflation

#444748

Postby GoSeigen » September 23rd, 2021, 2:59 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
The Great Reset is not being presented by crackpots but by the great and good in the world's governments:

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset


Has Ody even read this?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/ ... eat-reset/

It's not a "world government policy" as he calls it. It reads as the panicked, hyperbolic, clichéd rambling of a fantasist to me. There is nothing concrete or even interesting in the so-called agenda, just a bunch of management speak. Where is the evidence that this represents any sort of program that any government is implementing?

GS

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Re: Inflation

#444749

Postby murraypaul » September 23rd, 2021, 3:02 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Suddenly, not long after a European Directive, we have shortages of everything and rising prices and rapidly increasing inflation.


'Not long' being a year? And nothing else unusual happened last year?
I give up, you are determined to believe this rubbish, no matter what evidence is presented to you.
Fine, it is Europe's fault that Mexico and Australia have HGV driver shortages.
Seek help.

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Re: Inflation

#444813

Postby 88V8 » September 23rd, 2021, 6:56 pm

murraypaul wrote:Fine, it is Europe's fault that Mexico and Australia have HGV driver shortages.

An interesting example of 'the market' not working. It's not as if wages were inelastic.
And HGVs are way easier to drive than they used to be.
I'm tempted to point out that the roads are overcrowded because of over-population which makes driving unpleasant, but Japan's population is falling so I'll have to leave that hobbyhorse in the stable.

I dare say the EU directive has not helped.

I wonder if this is part of a wider ailment, the unwillingness of the young to enter manual jobs. If so, they will have to be tempted with higher wages, that's the long and short, and we will have to pay up.

V8

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Re: Inflation

#444853

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2021, 9:41 pm

murray paul
'Not long' being a year? And nothing else unusual happened last year?
I give up, you are determined to believe this rubbish, no matter what evidence is presented to you.
Fine, it is Europe's fault that Mexico and Australia have HGV driver shortages.
Seek help.


Things in business that involve people do not happen instantaneously, they need a bit of time as folk review how the new legislation effects them and then decide if they will accept the new ways of working or jack in the job.

So in this case from the law becoming active some of the folk in freight have slowly decided that the new conditions are not what they want and have begun to drift off. At first the effect is small and one notices no differences as warehouse keep supplies but as time goes on more and more folk decide to quit and warehouses run out and then one sees empty shelves. In this case the law came in August 2020, its effect became seriously manifest by around June 2021 and have got worse since.

Once you get such effect in a big market, the troubles spread all around the world and this leads to worldwide inflation.

Clearly the politicians could reverse the law, or use conscripts (army) to step in after giving them speeded up course in HGV driving, or offer more to civilians to train and drive, but the politicians are currently doing nothing. Rapidly rising inflation is what politicians believe is necessary.

Anyone who remembers the 70's will tell you how inflation at this level ramps up the price of everything and that in the 70's people who thought their pension would give them a comfortable retirement soon became poor as their pensions went up far more slowly than their costs.

If the politicians let inflation rip we are heading into some very miserable unhappy times as rapidly rising inflation will cost jobs as the spending power of a significant fraction of the economy will reduce. We are already seeing large energy price rises and all manner of other stuff. I was talking with an acquaintance today who told me on his unit site the tenants are getting deliveries from China in containers that no one wants back as we export little from here and it is cheaper for the Chinese to make a new container than pay for shipping an empty one back. There will be lots of wildness like this.

Meanwhile professions with bargaining power will force pay rises, house and land will rise in price as will equities that are in companies that can make money in an inflationary environment.

Regards,

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Re: Inflation

#444861

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2021, 9:55 pm

Has Ody even read this?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/ ... eat-reset/

It's not a "world government policy" as he calls it. It reads as the panicked, hyperbolic, clichéd rambling of a fantasist to me. There is nothing concrete or even interesting in the so-called agenda, just a bunch of management speak. Where is the evidence that this represents any sort of program that any government is implementing?

GS


The WEF puts together world leaders in politics, business, academia and sets forth via private discussions and lectures a view of the world which in the current environment is a view of great indebtedness. Of course many will not agree but in the end some proposals will emerge, recently this has been the need for a Great Reset to reduce sovereign debt. As most of the folk at the WEF have no executive power they can not act or do anything other than lobby their contacts in the executive branches about the need for some action to create the great reset. Enough politicians get influenced to get their civil servants to come up with plans to address the problem. The Europeans have decided that a way to generate inflation is to restrict the supply of goods and they have done this under the smoke screen of needing to make HGV drivers have better lives. This is not something that politicians have ever cared about and to suggest they now value each and everyone of their HGV drivers beggars belief. It does however address the issues noted by the WEF and the need for a Great Reset.

Regards,

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Re: Inflation

#444867

Postby tjh290633 » September 23rd, 2021, 10:14 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Anyone who remembers the 70's will tell you how inflation at this level ramps up the price of everything and that in the 70's people who thought their pension would give them a comfortable retirement soon became poor as their pensions went up far more slowly than their costs.

The real lesson from the 1970s was that "fixed income" was a major problem. People who had their money tied up in fixed income securities, or who had a level annuity, became impoverished. Some measure of inflation protection was obviously necessary. There was always some lag between prices rising and pensions or wages being increased.

It was at that time that the realisation began to dawn, that fixed interest investments were a dead loss, and that the idea of a transition to them as retirement approached, was a concept that had to be changed. Here we are now with very low interest rates, the yield on gilts starting to rise, but their value decreasing in sympathy, and the message still has not got home. Lifestyling is a dangerous concept.

TJH

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Re: Inflation

#444874

Postby CliffEdge » September 23rd, 2021, 10:28 pm

When it falls apart, it falls apart rapidly. You ain't seen nothing yet.

IMF here we come. EU and Euro membership a few years away at most. Put your assets in dollars or bricks

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Re: Inflation

#444887

Postby odysseus2000 » September 24th, 2021, 12:36 am

CliffEdge wrote:When it falls apart, it falls apart rapidly. You ain't seen nothing yet.

IMF here we come. EU and Euro membership a few years away at most. Put your assets in dollars or bricks


In my view the UK has escaped catastrophe by being out of the EU which is very likely to be torn apart by the in-balances that exist both north to south and west to east. In general the weaker economies are in the south and east and they will likely need help from the north and west, but are not likely imho to get it. Worse is that these poorer nations can not devalue their currencies to bring in more tourists or to support their local manufacturing which is another source of friction. I expect Italy to follow the UK and leave the EU.

Again in my view the UK can escape and prosper if the politicians get their act together and adjust policy to allow investment and create growth. There are huge opportunities in renewables and the potential for many new blue collar jobs creating the technology of generation, distribution, storage and usage. It seems unlikely that Tesla will come here suggesting that a home grown alternative will be needed and I am convinced that given favourable government support the country that created the first industrial revolution could prosper greatly from this one and the next one of AI with other industries such as space exploitation available if the conditions are right.

The problem as I see them are that the government is so rooted in the past and so corrupt in trying to optimise things for the politicians that one gets ridiculous things like the HS2 (great in the 1950's, obsolete now), and politicians mates being handed e.g. contracts to buy PPE, add on a margin, and then flog it to the NHS with kickbacks to the politicians.

Whether this inflation spike is enough to prompt the politicians to examine the bigger picture and create viable rather than rhetorical new jobs is far from clear. There is clearly a big branch of Westminster and associated Civil Servants who are focused on the past and don't see any need to do new things, but a strong dose of inflation and loss of jobs plus the coming AI revolution that will kill many traditional industries such as education, GP's and many of the professions may well be enough to so frighten the political classes that they reform.

Clearly I or no one else knows what will happen, but storm clouds are building. Walking around the supermarket tonight it felt like we were being strangled by an enemy sinking our ships and taking down our air freight. This kind of direct inconvenience and shortage troubles everyone and causes folk to blame the politicians and polls of confidence in the government to fall. There is only so much rhetoric and promises that the electorate will stand and it seems to me likely that the ability of the government to keep doing little is being rapidly worn away. What they do is anyones guess

We are living in very interesting times spiced with extreme danger to many of the things we have taken for granted.

Regards,

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Re: Inflation

#444930

Postby CliffEdge » September 24th, 2021, 8:55 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
CliffEdge wrote:When it falls apart, it falls apart rapidly. You ain't seen nothing yet.

IMF here we come. EU and Euro membership a few years away at most. Put your assets in dollars or bricks


In my view the UK has escaped catastrophe by being out of the EU which is very likely to be torn apart by the in-balances that exist both north to south and west to east. In general the weaker economies are in the south and east and they will likely need help from the north and west, but are not likely imho to get it. Worse is that these poorer nations can not devalue their currencies to bring in more tourists or to support their local manufacturing which is another source of friction. I expect Italy to follow the UK and leave the EU.

Again in my view the UK can escape and prosper if the politicians get their act together and adjust policy to allow investment and create growth. There are huge opportunities in renewables and the potential for many new blue collar jobs creating the technology of generation, distribution, storage and usage. It seems unlikely that Tesla will come here suggesting that a home grown alternative will be needed and I am convinced that given favourable government support the country that created the first industrial revolution could prosper greatly from this one and the next one of AI with other industries such as space exploitation available if the conditions are right.

The problem as I see them are that the government is so rooted in the past and so corrupt in trying to optimise things for the politicians that one gets ridiculous things like the HS2 (great in the 1950's, obsolete now), and politicians mates being handed e.g. contracts to buy PPE, add on a margin, and then flog it to the NHS with kickbacks to the politicians.

Whether this inflation spike is enough to prompt the politicians to examine the bigger picture and create viable rather than rhetorical new jobs is far from clear. There is clearly a big branch of Westminster and associated Civil Servants who are focused on the past and don't see any need to do new things, but a strong dose of inflation and loss of jobs plus the coming AI revolution that will kill many traditional industries such as education, GP's and many of the professions may well be enough to so frighten the political classes that they reform.

Clearly I or no one else knows what will happen, but storm clouds are building. Walking around the supermarket tonight it felt like we were being strangled by an enemy sinking our ships and taking down our air freight. This kind of direct inconvenience and shortage troubles everyone and causes folk to blame the politicians and polls of confidence in the government to fall. There is only so much rhetoric and promises that the electorate will stand and it seems to me likely that the ability of the government to keep doing little is being rapidly worn away. What they do is anyones guess

We are living in very interesting times spiced with extreme danger to many of the things we have taken for granted.

Regards,


The European socialist model or the American "I'm alright Jack" model? That's the choice. Brexiteers chose the former. Corrupt lying UK politicians in league with a Nobility waiting patiently for Neo-feudalism. As you say, the end of good living standards - blamed on Animal Farm lies and scapegoats. Becoming the sick man of Europe once again is no accident.

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Re: Inflation

#444946

Postby 1nvest » September 24th, 2021, 9:29 am

tjh290633 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Anyone who remembers the 70's will tell you how inflation at this level ramps up the price of everything and that in the 70's people who thought their pension would give them a comfortable retirement soon became poor as their pensions went up far more slowly than their costs.

The real lesson from the 1970s was that "fixed income" was a major problem. People who had their money tied up in fixed income securities, or who had a level annuity, became impoverished. Some measure of inflation protection was obviously necessary. There was always some lag between prices rising and pensions or wages being increased.

It was at that time that the realisation began to dawn, that fixed interest investments were a dead loss, and that the idea of a transition to them as retirement approached, was a concept that had to be changed. Here we are now with very low interest rates, the yield on gilts starting to rise, but their value decreasing in sympathy, and the message still has not got home. Lifestyling is a dangerous concept.

TJH

In the gold was money era it paid to lend to Kings. That has transitioned to where you now pay to lend to the state. When debt levels rise the state can either bankrupt itself (pay inflation pacing net rewards on its debt), or transfer the liability upon others (pension funds/savers).

A factor however is that all assets can result in net real losses over a decade or more, nowhere to hide/protect. For accumulators such declines can serve well longer term, new money added buys in at relatively low prices that later serves well. For those in drawdown the combined declines compounded with withdrawals can result in declines down to unsustainable/fatal levels.

Options are to not draw too much. 2% instead of 4% SWR might be considered a form of still accumulating (reinvesting 2%) - that tends tends to do OK/well; And/or to diversify. Even though all assets might lose out when the magnitude of losses differ the least down can float the portfolio. A fixed -2% yearly loss (bonds) can look good compared to a -50% or deeper loss (stocks/houses).

The 1970's case mentioned, such as a new retiree starting January 1969 applying a 4% SWR to all-stock would have seen total failure/loss after 20 years, whilst 50/50 stock/T-Bills was successful in the sense of lasting 30+ years. At the point at which all-stock failed 50/50 still had over 40% in inflation adjusted terms of the start date portfolio value available.

For those with more than enough, all-stock is fine. 2% SWR type withdrawals or less historically tended to get through the bad times with sufficient still intact to do very well during the good times. For those close to the wire, dependent upon a 4% type SWR, their position is more precarious. Broadly however that is relatively few individuals. Those already established in retirement may have seen good gains that reduced a initial 4% SWR value down to being perhaps just 2% of the ongoing portfolio value. Again a new retiree can better secure themselves if they can emulate that, such as having enough that a 2% SWR is sufficient to cover their spending, in which case all-stock can serve OK.

It's wrong to generalise and write off negative real yield bonds as for some historically holding some of such bonds might have been their saviour.

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Re: Inflation

#444961

Postby 1nvest » September 24th, 2021, 10:22 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Many argue that gold is the only safe place now, but on a 20 year chart it has not moved much:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/139429 ... 86210?s=20
.
.
If we really are about to see serious inflation the last place to be would be Fiat currencies that are likely to be effectively de-valued, but a return of inflation would also send yields on gilts and deposit accounts sky rocketing up. Yields on gilts in the 70's were for a period well over 15% giving a great rate of return and when the anti-inflation policies hit, a nice capital gain too. Hence investments in gilts may in the future become attractive although as gilt prices rise they are for now dangerous.

Equities also will in general do very well.

Are other investors concerned and if so what are they doing to defend against inflation?

Equities alone shouldn't be considered a panacea, at times those in drawdown might have been poorly served by a all-stock portfolio. Historically 50/50 stock/bonds and/or 50/50 stock/gold at times have served better than all-stock alone. Diversify and hold all three equally, around 66/17/17 stock/bonds/gold and you'll avoid being all-into the worse case alone. Maybe also splitting the stock between domestic (UK) and foreign (perhaps US). US data for 1972 to 2020 inclusive suggests total returns that compared to all-stock but did so with less volatility (better risk-adjusted reward/higher Sharpe Ratio). Here's the same again but from 2000 with a 4% SWR applied, click the inflation adjusted tab and end of 2020 values had all-stock down -60% real versus the more diversified being up +10% real. Yes there are counter cases, such as a 1980 start date where from high and declining interest rates stocks did very well, such that all-stock relatively outperformed, but its a matter of priorities, risk reduction (more diversified) versus potential reward maximisation (all-stock). For many lower downside risk is more preferable (offset by possible good rather than great gains on the upside).

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Re: Inflation

#444996

Postby odysseus2000 » September 24th, 2021, 11:23 am

It is easy with hindsight to make generalised statements and quote various analytical tools & measures about the inflationary period in the 1970's, but at the time it was ugly, fearful and unpredictable for the folk who lived through them with extreme stock market volatility and great divergence between how many groups faired. E.g. those who were retirees from the state with index linked pensions did a lot better than those who did not have the index linking.

There were huge fears about the state and talk of a military coup and the stock market dove in 1973:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973–1974_stock_market_crash

Then from all of the doom and ever decreasing equity prices a great rally began that many thought was a suckers rise. Folk refused to buy equities and bears came out saying equities were for fools, the more the stock market rallied till the bulls trampled the bears into the ground and many were desperate to get into the rally which was spectacular:

https://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/tag/ftse-all-share/

I have no idea what will happen in this inflation period, but extreme volatility in equities, bonds, asset prices etc etc can not be ruled out.

There may be very bad times but there will also be great opportunities as it seems now certain that the UK will have to increase trade with the rest of the world as Europe is not interested in goodwill as evidenced by the treatment of Northern Ireland and the mass of red tape that is murdering the export of UK sea foods and other food sectors. The politicians do not seem interested in restoring a balance by introducing similar troubles for European exporters of cars and other goods, suggesting the UK needs to explore new markets. Transitioning to new markets is unlikely to be easy although having an established commonwealth ought to make it less onerous than otherwise and the prosperity in China ought to make them receptive to UK made goods and foods.

When things are changing and inflation is ramping it will be almost impossible to get a clear picture of the future like in the 70's, but the history of the UK is that pessimism gives way to growth although pessimism does hold sway for a period that can test the resolve, happiness and purchasing power of many.

Regards,

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Re: Inflation

#444999

Postby GoSeigen » September 24th, 2021, 11:43 am

tjh290633 wrote: Here we are now with very low interest rates, the yield on gilts starting to rise, but their value decreasing in sympathy, and the message still has not got home.



At least TJH doesn't hide the fact that he has no idea what he is talking about when it comes to gilts...

:-D

GS

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Re: Inflation

#445000

Postby tjh290633 » September 24th, 2021, 11:46 am

GoSeigen wrote:
tjh290633 wrote: Here we are now with very low interest rates, the yield on gilts starting to rise, but their value decreasing in sympathy, and the message still has not got home.



At least TJH doesn't hide the fact that he has no idea what he is talking about when it comes to gilts...

:-D

GS

And I am happy for it to stay that way.

TJH

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Re: Inflation

#445058

Postby ursaminortaur » September 24th, 2021, 2:53 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:It is easy with hindsight to make generalised statements and quote various analytical tools & measures about the inflationary period in the 1970's, but at the time it was ugly, fearful and unpredictable for the folk who lived through them with extreme stock market volatility and great divergence between how many groups faired. E.g. those who were retirees from the state with index linked pensions did a lot better than those who did not have the index linking.

There were huge fears about the state and talk of a military coup and the stock market dove in 1973:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973–1974_stock_market_crash

Then from all of the doom and ever decreasing equity prices a great rally began that many thought was a suckers rise. Folk refused to buy equities and bears came out saying equities were for fools, the more the stock market rallied till the bulls trampled the bears into the ground and many were desperate to get into the rally which was spectacular:

https://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/tag/ftse-all-share/

I have no idea what will happen in this inflation period, but extreme volatility in equities, bonds, asset prices etc etc can not be ruled out.

There may be very bad times but there will also be great opportunities as it seems now certain that the UK will have to increase trade with the rest of the world as Europe is not interested in goodwill as evidenced by the treatment of Northern Ireland and the mass of red tape that is murdering the export of UK sea foods and other food sectors. The politicians do not seem interested in restoring a balance by introducing similar troubles for European exporters of cars and other goods, suggesting the UK needs to explore new markets. Transitioning to new markets is unlikely to be easy although having an established commonwealth ought to make it less onerous than otherwise and the prosperity in China ought to make them receptive to UK made goods and foods.


Geography still matters as far as trade is concerned and those other markets have just as much red tape as the EU. The difference is that UK traders were already dealing with that red tape whereas with exports to the EU this is extra red tape (in the form of non tariff barriers) on an extremely large part of our trade which unlike trade with the rest of the world which is mostly container based is carried out via much more numerous smaller RO-RO transfers. Much of that export trade to the EU (such as the fresh sea foods and other food sectors that you mention) couldn't profitably be redirected to other overseas markets so will remain as trade between the UK and EU. FTAs with other countries, even when they are not just pretty much copies of the agreements that we already had as EU members, provide little extra benefit to UK exports according to the governments own figures. Even a UK-US deal, which would probably require a lot of UK concessions which are problematic, would at most boost UK GDP by 0.2% and any such deal seems a distant prospect at the moment.

As to the UK government not being interested in "restoring a balance by introducing similar troubles for European exporters of cars and other goods" that is purely down to UK government incompetence in not having the required new computer systems to handle it, not building the port infrastructure to handle it and not recruiting and training the necessary staff to handle it. The EU were ready from 1st January 2021 but the UK is still not prepared and is continually extending the dates when it says it will start checks on imports.

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Re: Inflation

#445077

Postby 1nvest » September 24th, 2021, 3:43 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:As to the UK government not being interested in "restoring a balance by introducing similar troubles for European exporters of cars and other goods" that is purely down to UK government incompetence in not having the required new computer systems to handle it, not building the port infrastructure to handle it and not recruiting and training the necessary staff to handle it. The EU were ready from 1st January 2021 but the UK is still not prepared and is continually extending the dates when it says it will start checks on imports.

It is not rather just a case of the EU wanted to be quick at punishing the UK whilst the UK is more in a position of looking to resource from elsewhere (non-EU) so checks/controls aren't required until a later date. Which leaves the EU with breaching the GFA ball in its court and is trying to bat that back by continued insistence that the UK divides up (maintains a internal border between NI/GB that AFAIK has no pre-existing case of international agreement enforcing a country to divide itself). Fundamentally agreeing to such was the only way the UK was permitted to leave the EU - forced into a position of neverendum or a means to actually leave, and as such the legality is dubious and that when presented to a international court will most likely side with the UK (at which time the EU will be confronted with actually having to break the GFA).

In some respects delaying agreeing a US trade agreement follows similar reasoning. Last in the queue avoids it insisting upon all of the icing ahead of others.

The transition/migration away from over-reliance upon the EU is progressing well, albeit at the cost of shorter term shortages. Wages/employment are rising, the EU is losing much of its largest single country export market day by day, and when down at 15% type levels, reflective of its global population proportion, that will have been a significant risk reduction exercise for the UK. Then and only then may it be appropriate for the UK to start imposing punitive access/controls upon the EU, such as perhaps favouring Japanese car manufactured in the UK over that of EU exported cars ...etc.


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