SWIFT - global investment implications

[RockRabbit]

It now appears likely that US, UK and EU will back exclusion of Russia from SWIFT, although the timing is still unclear.
(see viewtopic.php?f=99&t=33099&start=340 for discussion)

What I'm unclear about is, what are the potential global investment implications of this?
- for oil and gas
- for FX
- for global trade
- for stock markets etc

Anyone got any clear insights on this?

[AWOL]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5obFBod ... nsionCraft

This video is worth watching. The capitol market aspect side of SWIFT is covered at about 9:30.

[odysseus2000]

Sanctions have a very long history of being advertised as strong medicine that will bring any dictators to heal, but in practice have so far mostly failed to achieve much. Closing off swift would just lead to other payment routes rising up including likely block chain approaches.

Wheat is probably more of a potential trouble for the world should Ukraine and/or Russian stop exporting or limit supply:

https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/r ... ces-higher

Meanwhile there are all the potential dangers of cyber attacks that can cripple many areas of the economy.

I have no idea what will happen, but I do expect the nett effect of all of this to be a rapid rise in inflation and then comes the call of whether central banks dare raise interest rates. If they do then property markets will quickly get ugly.

Imho the important thing to watch now is Beijing. Will they support Russia and circumvent all the sanctions with potential aim of taking Taiwan or will they censure Russia.

What Beijing does is imho the most Important thing to watch.

The collective mass of experts, especially politicians, telling you what they think will happen has imho very limited value.

The mass of confusing media reports from Ukraine is full of propaganda and red-herrings that are a fog hiding what is really happening.

Regards,

[RockRabbit]

Well we're about to find out - specific Russian banks are being removed from SWIFT now.

I suspect one of the objectives is to cause a bank run in Russia.

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen

[Midsmartin]

How is Russian gas imported into Europe paid for?

[Urbandreamer]

I'm currently listening to an audiobook of the bitcoin standard. (Mostly Austrian Economics).

While I do like the pensionwise explanation, Swift is needed because of the fact that we need complicated methods for countries to exchange money since the gold standard was dropped. Basically if anyone buys anything from country A then they need to pay that country for it. How do they do so? Do they load gold onto a ship and send it? That is what use to happen.

It's now mostly done via the "Swift" network, which despite it's name takes about two weeks.

Hence, as said on the video, Companies like Shell and BP would not be able to receive payments for the production of their investments in Russia. Likewise it would make it very difficult for Russia to buy things. Just like Iran or other countries that we have taken against. They can't buy basic medical supplies.

Basically we are talking that old idea of a siege.

Personally I do think that we need to take action against Russia, but there are many instances that I disagree with.
There are no easy answers.

[odysseus2000]

Does anyone know how good Ripple is as a payment/currency exchange system:

https://www.google.com/search?q=what+is ... e&ie=UTF-8

Regards,

[NotSure]

It is hard to see anything other than a bit of a slump in stocks tomorrow - these new sanctions will hurt, potentially exacerbating the current supply side squeeze. After that, who knows? Maybe central banks will use the excuse to back off from tightening and return the promise of the punch bowl. My money's on VIX