Several indices are getting very cheap again lately.

[compscidude]

Hello, to anyone that sold in 2021 or mid-2023 and who has been waiting in cash a while.

An eternal question is 'if you sell when the market is high, when do you buy'?

If you didn't catch the dip somewhere near the lows of September/October 2022 on the basis of e.g. fundamental analysis or depth of dip, then right now is probably not a bad alternative. I've been buying today, and I've committed all reserves. I'm 100% in shares now.

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Russell 2000 - small cap USA. e.g. UK tickers: RTWP, R2SC. USA ticker: IWM.

IWM was $165 at last year's low, and again is at $165 right now in premarket.

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FTSE 250 - small cap UK. e.g. MIDD, VMID.

The FTSE250 is back at 2014 price levels currently (!)

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RSP (the equal weight SP500) is very near the level of 2022's low. I am not sure that it is great value, but it's relatively lower at least.

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The cap-weighted SP500 still seems rather expensive.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe


Best wishes to all.

[odysseus2000]

An eternal question is 'if you sell when the market is high, when do you buy'?

Usually optimum time is when everyone in the media is saying that the market is headed a lot lower.

Regards,

[compscidude]

> Usually optimum time is when everyone in the media is saying that the market is headed a lot lower.

I completely agree.

In fact the best time to buy the German DAX last year was when everyone in the media was saying 'German Industry Will Shut Down Forever'. It added 50% in USD terms not long after that in just a few months.

In fairness, that was also due to an amazingly warm winter that solved the natgas problem, plus a remarkable effort to set up LNG terminals in just 8 months when it would usually take many years. Still, that's the point isn't it? The media usually thinks it's better than it is, or worse than it is.

Anyway my point was more along the lines of: you don't need to wait for optimal lows and highs to move in and out of the market.

"Seems pretty expensive" and "Seems OK" are good enough, depending on whether you value simplicity or lower volatility in your returns.

Now is a clear "Seems OK" moment, in my view.

The current price levels on some of these indices marked the end of the 2022 bear market last year, plus you have inflation/return on cash as a bonus.

[Lootman]

Russell 2000 - small cap USA. e.g. UK tickers: RTWP, R2SC. USA ticker: IWM.

IWM was $165 at last year's low, and again is at $165 right now in premarket.

IWM is attractive around $165 in my view, which it hit a couple of times in 2022, and bounced off.

Of course it has been as high as $240 and as low as $100 in the last few years.

[monabri]

I bought an initial tranche of VMID today..with a view to keeping a watch... (along with a Merchants IT top up).

[Itsallaguess]

‎ ‎
I think it's appropriate to consider people's track-record in making large macro investment calls on public bulletin boards, that might influence people away from what they'd perhaps normally do.

Here's the OP trying to convince people that going 100% cash in 2016 was the right thing to do, after making a similar call in March 2015 back on the Motley Fool site -

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1631

The reason for me posting this here isn't to try and influence people one way or another, but simply to highlight a publicly-available track-record so that people can perhaps make more informed decisions.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[GoSeigen]

‎ ‎Here's the OP trying to convince people that going 100% cash in 2016 was the right thing to do, after making a similar call in March 2015 back on the Motley Fool site -

If this meant avoid the FTSE100 than it wasn't too bad a call. Approx 2.8% CAGR plus dividends since then is not exactly shooting the lights out. Medium and long gilts and corporate fixed interest gave far better returns, and then you were set to buy the 2020 crash if you had cash.

Mind you I do remember the bell ringing several times both here on TLF and previously on TMF but the much anticipated crash never came, apart from 2020, before which I don't recall any bell ringing...


GS

[Itsallaguess]

‎ ‎

Here's the OP trying to convince people that going 100% cash in 2016 was the right thing to do, after making a similar call in March 2015 back on the Motley Fool site -

If this meant avoid the FTSE100 than it wasn't too bad a call. Approx 2.8% CAGR plus dividends since then is not exactly shooting the lights out. Medium and long gilts and corporate fixed interest gave far better returns, and then you were set to buy the 2020 crash if you had cash.

No, he was talking about the US market being the driver for his 'sell everything' call, and he actually advocated that if anyone was convinced to stay invested, that the UK market was the better proposition.

I pointed this out in the following two posts on a different 'sky falling in' thread from the OP -

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=33510&start=20#p483662

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=33510&start=40#p483781

A few years ago I did some deeper analysis on a subsequently deleted thread, detailing the US market gains since that 2016 'sell everything' post, and comparing them to the poor returns that would have been recognised had someone followed up on his proposals and either sold up completely or moved over to UK investments, and the results were shocking then, and I strongly suspect they'd be even worse now if I were to re-do the analysis...

Mind you I do remember the bell ringing several times both here on TLF and previously on TMF but the much anticipated crash never came, apart from 2020, before which I don't recall any bell ringing...

Yes, you remember things quite correctly. I think the last time it was rung on the old Motley Fool site was in 2015.

I'm always very nervous about people charging in on white steeds making vociferous calls and writing about them as though others should listen, and I think it's important to recognise peoples records in doing so.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[tjh290633]

An eternal question is 'if you sell when the market is high, when do you buy'?

Usually optimum time is when everyone in the media is saying that the market is headed a lot lower.

Regards,

I tend to ignore the market and see how individual shares are doing in relation to my portfolio as a whole. Inevitably some rise when the market is falling, and this gives an opportunity to top slice such holdings and reinvest in shares which have fallen. This is illustrated by my recent sale of BAE Systems when it had risen above 1.5 times my median holding value, and reinvested in British Land, Kingfisher and Segro, all below median value and yielding more than BA.

It doesn't happen very often, 12 months ago was the last occasion, and in the meantime selective reinvestment of accumulated dividends follows a similar principle.

TJH

[DrFfybes]

I bought an initial tranche of VMID today..with a view to keeping a watch... (along with a Merchants IT top up).

Conversely I just sold mine, at about 7% loss over nearly a decade (excluding divi).

Indices are getting cheaper, but they haven't got cheap yet.

I also sold a fait chunk of VEVE and VHYL last week (although less than 10% of portfolio in total), will buy back if/when they hit £65 and £45 respectively.

An eternal question is 'if you sell when the market is high, when do you buy'?

Usually a few months later when it has recovered from the dip and is even higher still

Paul

[odysseus2000]

Usually optimum time is when everyone in the media is saying that the market is headed a lot lower.

Regards,

I tend to ignore the market and see how individual shares are doing in relation to my portfolio as a whole. Inevitably some rise when the market is falling, and this gives an opportunity to top slice such holdings and reinvest in shares which have fallen. This is illustrated by my recent sale of BAE Systems when it had risen above 1.5 times my median holding value, and reinvested in British Land, Kingfisher and Segro, all below median value and yielding more than BA.

It doesn't happen very often, 12 months ago was the last occasion, and in the meantime selective reinvestment of accumulated dividends follows a similar principle.

TJH

This is super important.

As an investor especially in the low commission markets we are blessed with, one does not need to make all or nothing buys or sells.

One can sell parts of one’s portfolio into strength & buy parts of one’s portfolio into weakness.

Sure if you have cash are sure a bottom has happened & you buy the lot you will do well, but calling bottoms & also tops is not something most folk can do.

If you are sure a bottom has happened & spend a fraction of your available cash then if the market continues to rally you can add more, if it tanks you can lower your cost average.

Of course we always hear about folk who have gone all in at bottoms & come out like bandits, but we never hear from the folk who bought way too early & got hurt, inversely for tops.

Sure there are technical methods that can increase the odds of buying bottoms & selling tops, but they are based on price action which is news related & historical norms & are not connected to any kind of macro or emotional guesses as to action points & are predominantly the hunting grounds of short term derivative traders using options etc.

Regards,