Musk endeavours

[dspp]

Musk says cost per battery aiming for 50 to 55 cents for a 10 Wh cell. If we take the battery at nominal voltage of 3.7 volts, this requires 10/3.7 = 2.7 amps for 1 hour which seems plausible given what I have experimentally measured with 18650 second use cells. (NB, in practice the cell voltage range is something like 4.2 to 3 volts, 3.7 is just the nominal voltage)

At 50 cents per 10 Wh, this implies 0.5x1000/10 = $50 at the cell level for 1 kWh.

This is incredibly low cost.

Regards,

This is no more (and no less) than was announced in battery day. I don't know why the twitterati are getting all excited about it, except perhaps due to repitition.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

dspp
This is no more (and no less) than was announced in battery day. I don't know why the twitterati are getting all excited about it, except perhaps due to repitition.

regards, dspp

It was kind of nice to hear it again and so clearly set out, suggesting no set backs and that it was still the goal.

Often Tesla UPOD, under promised, over deliver, and we might see this with the battery price.

Regards,

[Howard]

Howard - Thanks for the explanation. I'll update the spreadsheet later today. However the 320d is what you quoted last year. didn't realise that you'd changed to a 320i this year so I will also correct that. regards, dspp

Sorry, I’ve hit a problem with the 320d which I wasn't expecting. But it might be a significant development! There appears to be a shortage of 3 Series BMW 2.0 litre diesels! Brokers aren’t quoting for the 320d at the moment. Leasing.com which covers a large spread of brokers doesn’t have any offers for this engine, but over 300 quotes for the 320i.

One can speculate on the reasons for this. I frankly don’t know. As petrol engines are now nearly as economical as a diesel, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the diesel version phased out. The Covid situation in Germany caused BMW to shut plants for a while and I’m guessing they may have concentrated on producing certain more popular models. (Or maybe with my business mode on - those with higher margins?)

On a completely different topic, looking at your spreadsheet, I’m not sure that the ULEZ costs apply to our hypothetical driver. If a company car driver has to drive in central London in his/her ICE vehicle, his/her company will pay for the congestion charge. If it’s a private car not used for business and driven by someone in the provinces, like me, they are unlikely to choose to drive in the congestion zone. There are a ring of car parks just outside - like the Q Park in Park Lane - which are easy to use and cheaper than car parks in the city. Someone living in London and regularly driving in the congestion zone will be a special case. The wealthy will drive a Tesla Model S or a Range Rover and hang the cost!! The less wealthy might drive a small BEV if they can charge it overnight.

regards

Howard

[Howard]

Now that we are approaching the latest time for departure from the USA, it is apparent that seven ships will be carrying Model 3s to Europe in Q4. Two from China and five from California.

The capacity of the ships in total is in excess of 40,000 cars. In addition there have been shipments of S and X models.

The first ship arrived in Europe and then the UK a few days ago and currently the seventh should be arriving mid/late December.

So Tesla are expecting bumper sales in European markets in November and December.

regards

Howard

I have just read an informal report that yet one more ship for Europe may load in California - Glovis Captain. That makes eight! And apparently there is still just time for another!

So that suggests more than 45,000 cars are on their way to European customers for Nov/Dec. The early ones are on the road on car transporters and most of the rest on the high seas. Zeebrugge is reputed to be very efficient at car movements. It is going to be busy in December!

regards

Howard

Glovis Captain wasn't used after all. Glovis Sun replaced it, a bigger ship, holding up to 7,000 cars. So that's eight ships coming to Europe - capacity over 45,000 cars, maybe 50,000?

It will be impressive if they are all sold in Q4!

regards

Howard

[dspp]

Howard - Thanks for the explanation. I'll update the spreadsheet later today. However the 320d is what you quoted last year. didn't realise that you'd changed to a 320i this year so I will also correct that. regards, dspp

Sorry, I’ve hit a problem with the 320d which I wasn't expecting. But it might be a significant development! There appears to be a shortage of 3 Series BMW 2.0 litre diesels! Brokers aren’t quoting for the 320d at the moment. Leasing.com which covers a large spread of brokers doesn’t have any offers for this engine, but over 300 quotes for the 320i.

One can speculate on the reasons for this. I frankly don’t know. As petrol engines are now nearly as economical as a diesel, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the diesel version phased out. The Covid situation in Germany caused BMW to shut plants for a while and I’m guessing they may have concentrated on producing certain more popular models. (Or maybe with my business mode on - those with higher margins?)

On a completely different topic, looking at your spreadsheet, I’m not sure that the ULEZ costs apply to our hypothetical driver. If a company car driver has to drive in central London in his/her ICE vehicle, his/her company will pay for the congestion charge. If it’s a private car not used for business and driven by someone in the provinces, like me, they are unlikely to choose to drive in the congestion zone. There are a ring of car parks just outside - like the Q Park in Park Lane - which are easy to use and cheaper than car parks in the city. Someone living in London and regularly driving in the congestion zone will be a special case. The wealthy will drive a Tesla Model S or a Range Rover and hang the cost!! The less wealthy might drive a small BEV if they can charge it overnight.

regards

Howard

Howard, Thanks. Does this get close enough for tracking purposes ? People can think themselves into the different situations (ULEZ, whatever) Regards, dspp

[Howard]

dspp

Yes, your spreadsheet assumptions above look right to me. I will check more thoroughly later when I have time. So, with BIK added and tax paid the two are roughly similar. However, if you add in ULEZ, even for a few trips, the cost advantage of the Tesla mounts up quickly.

regards

Howard

[dspp]

This #221373 post from amolinia on tmc has a graphic with the $$ sales of BEVs in China, not just the unit sales. Most informative.

YTD TSLA have 27% by units but 42% by revenue !!!!! I would guess that by kWh is midway between those.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/5161417/

- dspp

[Howard]

This #221373 post from amolinia on tmc has a graphic with the $$ sales of BEVs in China, not just the unit sales. Most informative.

YTD TSLA have 27% by units but 42% by revenue !!!!! I would guess that by kWh is midway between those.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/5161417/

- dspp

Yes, but (you’d expect me to say that!).

As we know, things are moving fast in the BEV segment in China (and Europe). If you look at Tesla Chinese sales from June onwards they were:

Jun 14,954
July 11,014
Aug 11,800
Sep 11,329
Oct 12,134

And I believe they have cut their Model 3 prices a couple of times. By 10% in May and a further 8% in October?

So a reduction in monthly sales volume since the June figure, of 20% and a price reduction of 17% means a sharp drop in monthly revenue. This might suggest that the competition are having an effect? Some Chinese BEV brands sales have grown significantly since June.

Tesla aimed to sell 150,000 cars in China in 2020. Your poster suggests they have sold just over 93,000 year to date. If he is right, will they sell 57,000 cars in November and December?

Will it be a game of two halves?

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

This #221373 post from amolinia on tmc has a graphic with the $$ sales of BEVs in China, not just the unit sales. Most informative.

YTD TSLA have 27% by units but 42% by revenue !!!!! I would guess that by kWh is midway between those.

Nope, according to those figures they have 27% of the top 10 BEV's in China (however that has been compiled), which isn't the same thing, and assuming top 10 is basically most of the market is a lot less safe in China than it is in Europe.

Edited to add: In fact it even says that those 10 vehicles only account for 38% of all BEV sales! So that's 10.26% of units, and an incomputable % of $'s, even by those figures.

[Howard]

QuantumScape (QS), a battery startup backed by Volkswagen and Tesla cofounder JB Straubel, went public with a bang today.

The stock is already up more than 50%.

They are working on solid-state lithium-metal batteries for use in electric vehicles.

The startup’s next-generation battery cell promises to deliver improvements on all key aspects of battery cells:

Straubel, who has tested basically every battery cell technology while at Tesla, commented:

"QuantumScape’s solid-state anode-less design represents the most elegant architecture I’ve seen for a lithium-based battery system, and the company has an opportunity to redefine the battery landscape."

Believable?

Fred Lambert, Mr Electrek, is a shareholder. see https://electrek.co/2020/11/27/battery- ... qs-public/

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

QuantumScape (QS), a battery startup backed by Volkswagen and Tesla cofounder JB Straubel, went public with a bang today.

The stock is already up more than 50%.

VW have $300 million invested, a board seat and a JV as part of their battery portfolio. They've been working together for 8 years and started buying a couple of years ago. I would suspect there is definitely something there...

[dspp]

This #221373 post from amolinia on tmc has a graphic with the $$ sales of BEVs in China, not just the unit sales. Most informative.

YTD TSLA have 27% by units but 42% by revenue !!!!! I would guess that by kWh is midway between those.

Nope, according to those figures they have 27% of the top 10 BEV's in China (however that has been compiled), which isn't the same thing, and assuming top 10 is basically most of the market is a lot less safe in China than it is in Europe.

Edited to add: In fact it even says that those 10 vehicles only account for 38% of all BEV sales! So that's 10.26% of units, and an incomputable % of $'s, even by those figures.

Fair point BD. If I see better data I'll let you know. regards, dspp

[Howard]

JATO have just published figures for BEV sales in Europe in October.

VW ID.3 10,475
Renault Zoe 9,778
Hyundai Kona 5,261
Kia Niro 3,868
Peugeot 208 3,757
Smart 2,829
BMW i3 2,744
Corsa 2,616
Mini 2,432
Nissan Leaf 2,247

Tesla sales weren’t quoted by JATO as they only reported the top ten BEVs but https://carsalesbase.com/europe-tesla/ report they were 1,468.

Two ships have delivered cars to Europe so far this month so there is the potential for Tesla sales of over 10,000 cars in November. A further two ships with capacities of 6,000 cars each are unloading in Zeebrugge now, but it’s unlikely that their cars will reach customers or leasing companies in time for November sales.

regards

Howard

[redsturgeon]

The Tesla situation is so frustrating as a potential buyer. From everything I have read it would be a serious contender for my hard earned in terms of performance, equipment etc but in terms of customer service and build quality I just can't consider it.

It seems that a lot other other buyers in Europe share my concerns.

John

[odysseus2000]

This is a technical presentation by Munro on what he believes will be how Tesla are planning to build their new larger cell battery packs. The one thing he does not consider is fusing, whether Tesla will fuse these packs is currently unknown to me, but I imagine they will, however, if so, the gasket connection model that Munro describes would also need individual cell fuses. Nevertheless the mock up he shows suggests how much simple & effective the new battery packs will be:

https://youtu.be/KJlEiZpJg2c

Regards,

[Howard]

Howard, Thanks. Does this get close enough for tracking purposes ? People can think themselves into the different situations (ULEZ, whatever) Regards, dspp

As you asked for comments and now having had time to think about your spreadsheet and also having done some more research on the actual range of the Tesla model we have used I think you might consider adding a few notes to your analysis. I have tried to summarise them in a dispassionate manner but realise some may consider them controversial.

The spreadsheet comparison suggests that a Model 3 would suit an affluent private motorist who can charge a BEV overnight off road and who frequently drives into a ULEZ area.

The limited actual range of a standard range Tesla Model 3 of around 190 miles means that the BMW will be more suitable for a driver who often drives the car for journeys over 150 miles.

The Tesla will suit a slower driver who is prepared to reduce speed on motorways and dual carriageways to achieve more range on a longer journey, particularly in rainy and cold conditions.

The cost and inconvenience of maintaining a Tesla over three years will be moderately higher than the BMW.

There's an increasing amount of information from Tesla drivers about real range issues in motorway driving. From an environmental standpoint their conclusions look good. Don't drive fast on motorways, cut your speed substantially to eke out a little more range. The more extreme behaviours like turning the heating down don't look too sensible! Most would recommend a long range model at a higher price to overcome some (but not all) of the anxiety. A good, current, thread to browse is https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... 861/page-5

There is also some concern from owners about Tesla's advice to not regularly charge the battery to 100%.

I'd be interested in your comments. Have I been fair?

regards

Howard

[dspp]

"‘Why did it take nine hours to go 130 miles in our new electric Porsche?’"
= should have bought a Tesla
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/ ... ng-network

- dspp

[Howard]

"‘Why did it take nine hours to go 130 miles in our new electric Porsche?’"
= should have bought a Tesla
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/ ... ng-network

- dspp

Yes range anxiety is a real problem, even with a car with (allegedly) 250 mile range they had similar anxieties to Tesla owners on longer trips.

Reading the threads of Tesla drivers, there aren't even enough Tesla chargers to re-assure a standard range Model 3 driver who has only charged to 80% to protect the battery and has a workable range of around 150 miles in rainy weather.

Despite the reputation for being fast, we are finding that the real life experience of BEV drivers is that they are forced to drive slowly.

Good for the environment!

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Howard
There is also some concern from owners about Tesla's advice to not regularly charge the battery to 100%.

As far as I know the charging software is set by Tesla, not the driver, and will not let you change to 100% (4.2 Volts on each cell.)

In times of emergency such as running from a hurricane, Tesla generally removes this restriction by over the air update so that the max possible range is achieved.

There seems to be a lot of confusion about how far folk drive in their normal life. Some suggest in the UK it is typically about 20 miles per day with only the odd trip of a hundred miles or so. If this is correct then a lot of the range anxiety in the UK is likely about just a few folk who want to drive much longer than these average values.

Also whether cold is as big an issue as set out in some of the UK posts is unclear to me. One of the biggest markets for BEV is Norway which has serious cold and yet people manage fine in the extreme Scandinavian conditions that are rarely if ever experienced in the UK.

I am far from convinced that the bulletin board chats on Tesla and BEV are anything but the emotions of a few who are natural complainers or who are getting kickbacks from legacy auto and legacy fossil.

Regards,

[Adamski]

Thanks for posting that table of ev sales in europe, Howard. I think the vw id.3 is going to be huge. Not cause of technology, but because it is cheaper and Volkswagen can scale up mass production, so that this becomes the new polo and golf. This to me is the big issue tesla will face. It has a narrow moat. Once the big car manufacturers have mass ev production and starts delivering in big numbers, then teslas stock price will plummet.