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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#411781

Postby odysseus2000 » May 13th, 2021, 9:56 pm

notsosure
We may find out about whether BTC is a 'store of value' or a speculative 'risk asset' quite soon. Too early to say regarding inflation (as measured by CPI), but the upsaide risks seem to be in the ascendent. Will BTC sell off along with other risk assets if interest rates rise and risk-free returns become available, or will people looking to protect their wealth pile in? Only time will tell, but I personally suspect the former. 'Safe''? Over 50% mined in China, i.e. under the direct control of a single indivual who may not have the best interest of the West close to his heart. I am sure you are aware of what a '51% attack' is, and even BTC is open to this.....


As I look at things the wealthy folk and politicians have decided that the world will transition to Crypto Currencies.

Whether it is good or bad, democratic or a dictatorship, the world is governed and organised by a relative small number of wealthy folk.

In 1933 Prez FDR abolished the gold standard
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-his ... d-standard

At the end of the second war at Bretton woods a few powerful folk established the post war monetary system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system

In 1971 Nixon ended that Bretton_Woods system by among other measures ending convertibility of US$ to gold
https://www.federalreservehistory.org/e ... ility-ends

On and on through history, big economic decisions have been taken by a small group of people.

Now it seems that a similarly small number of people have decided that we should have Crypto currencies.

Unless someone can show that the technology is fundamentally flawed I expect crypto currencies to become more and more important as big money adopts them and compiles everyone else to follow. Fiat currencies by contrast look weak and vulnerable to the fashion of the moment.

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#411784

Postby odysseus2000 » May 13th, 2021, 10:09 pm

notsosure
I am UK based and one fund I hold has an OCF of about 0.14% yet holds over 6,000 stocks including small caps in far flung places. It has no spread and no dealing cost. My holding is around £1,000. You are just being deliberately contrarian? :)

Edit. I do not wish to upset the excellent mods - this is not very Musk related. Passive investing, Investment Strategies or Investment Funds may be a more approriate venue?


I think you missed the point.

Having etf like Cathie Woods Arkk fund with big exposure to Tesla and other out of favour tech funds allows shorts to hit the entire tech sector without the worries of building up big short positions in individual names as there seems no problem for shorts to borrow Arkk shares and then sell them short. When the attacks were purely on Tesla a large fraction of the Tesla float was sold short which eventually lead to a huge short squeeze around the S&P500 inclusion of Tesla.

The effect of all of this is bring down Tesla stock and to limit Tesla managements ability to raise funds by minimal dilutive offerings. Raising cash at $900 per share is far less dilutive than doing so at $571; where the stock closed tonight.

In effect the shorts, via arkk et al, have a new and powerful way to profitably hurt Tesla.

Additionally, by targeting Cryptos the shorts hurt the bitcoin on Tesla's balance sheet and also hurt all the folk who have become rich from riding the crypto revolution, folk who might now be less inclined to buy a Tesla or a Tesla roof and storage.

May 2021 has been a murderous time for Tesla and unless Musk can pull something out of the hat it looks imho that Tesla shares are caught in a perfect storm and heading lower.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#411787

Postby odysseus2000 » May 13th, 2021, 10:15 pm

I meant to add on the earlier post on Crypto that

The effect of hurting crypto is to hurt the recently wealthy folk who have done well from playing them and who now are poorer and perhaps less likely to buy a Tesla or other luxury goods and who may decide to cash in their winnings and wait.

This can all trigger a huge rotation like we saw in 2001 when tech stocks crashed and old school boring companies rallied very strongly.

It is possible imho that Tesla could go a lot lower from where it is now unless Musk has some rabbits in his hat.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#411794

Postby NotSure » May 13th, 2021, 10:34 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Unless someone can show that the technology is fundamentally flawed I expect crypto currencies to become more and more important as big money adopts them and compiles everyone else to follow.


https://lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=411782#p411782

Big money at the mercy of Mr. Xi? I think not. One executive order and BTC is toast.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#411796

Postby odysseus2000 » May 13th, 2021, 10:37 pm

For those who did not experience 2000 or who have forgotten about it, the effect of that crash on Amazon equity is shown here:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/139295 ... 54853?s=20

Note how it was around 2009 when the shares made a new high after the previous high in 2000-ish.

It is not impossible that we may see something similar now if we have a big rotation out of tech like Tesla and into defensives.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#411799

Postby odysseus2000 » May 13th, 2021, 10:51 pm

NotSure wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Unless someone can show that the technology is fundamentally flawed I expect crypto currencies to become more and more important as big money adopts them and compiles everyone else to follow.


https://lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=411782#p411782

Big money at the mercy of Mr. Xi? I think not. One executive order and BTC is toast.


This all seems dated. I can't find any references in the academic paper later than 2018 and there has been a shift from fossil fuel powered mining to renewable mining and developments of better ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuits).

In addition more crypto currencies have been developed that use less computation but which may not be as safe.

Meanwhile the competitor, FIAT US$ are being diluted by the efforts of Prez Biden.

Which set of worries do investors like the best?

My guess is that Tesla are investigating whether to launch their own crypto currency.

Regards,

NotSure
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Re: Musk endeavours

#411804

Postby NotSure » May 14th, 2021, 12:53 am

It is not disputed that well over 50% of BTC mining is located in China.

It is not disputed that BTC is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

It is not disputed that anyone operating in China is subject to the whim of Xi.

It is not disputed that Xi is no fan of the west.

Draw your own conclusions on the "safety" of BTC, or show proper evidence that any of the points above is factually incorrect.

TUK020
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Re: Musk endeavours

#411822

Postby TUK020 » May 14th, 2021, 8:26 am

NotSure wrote: I do not wish to upset the excellent mods - this is not very Musk related. ?


The gigapost goes wherever Ody wants it to. More entertaining that Laughing Lemons

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Re: Musk endeavours

#411865

Postby odysseus2000 » May 14th, 2021, 10:51 am

NotSure wrote:It is not disputed that well over 50% of BTC mining is located in China.

It is not disputed that BTC is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

It is not disputed that anyone operating in China is subject to the whim of Xi.

It is not disputed that Xi is no fan of the west.

Draw your own conclusions on the "safety" of BTC, or show proper evidence that any of the points above is factually incorrect.


There are numerous things associated with bitcoin for which confusing and contradictory numbers exist.

According to ABC news:

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/bitcoin ... d=77665619

Bitcoin accounts for 0.69% of world energy consumption.

They then go on to say that only 39% of the bitcoin energy consumption is from renewables.

Nature:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467- ... 6-3#citeas

say that 75% of all bitcoin mining occurs in China.

So yes, BTC is vulnerable to changes in Chinese policy.

My interest is how crypto currencies will develop and whether Musk is acting radomly here as it looks or is this all part of some coordinated plan.

Musk notes in recent tweets:

Its high time there was a carbon tax!:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/139 ... 59072?s=20

To be clear, I strongly believe in crypto, but it can’t drive a massive increase in fossil fuel use, especially coal

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/139 ... 30019?s=20

Working with Doge devs to improve system transaction efficiency. Potentially promising.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/139 ... 95300?s=20

So if one stands back and looks at all of this in isolation, we have many more people drawn into knowing something about Crypto, more carbon tax exposure, more exposure to Crypto are the way forward, more exposure to Doge being the Crypto that Musk may support (mine?) going forward.

Is this all random or was it planned?

I have no idea but we are imho going through the standard way that new things come into being. When the internet started there were all manner of comments about it was using vast amounts of power and leading to global warming, that it was too slow, that it was giving the States too much power over individuals, etc

Anyone who hates Crypto can find any amount of commentary to support their hate.

Anyone who thinks Crypto are the way forward can find a similar number of articles to support their belief.

Meanwhile, just like the internet, the use of Crypto continues to grow and it would not be surprising to me if Tesla find someway to profit from this secular trend.

Regards,

NotSure
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Re: Musk endeavours

#411904

Postby NotSure » May 14th, 2021, 12:50 pm

I'm neither a fanboy or a hater of crypto. I've read enough to understand that blockchain most certainly has its uses, and like the internet, I agree it will grow, but I don't think as an innovation it remotely approaches the internet in its potential to disrupt.

Like Musk, I do not like BTC, or the concept of PoW - to me, it's a totally unnecessary waste of resources, whether those resources are renewable, fossil fuelled or simply computational power. Unlike Musk, I really do not see Doge as the solution. If you trace back Doge 'genes' it leads straight back to Bitcoin. It has no cap on it's supply, few if any serious developers or any USP use cases. It is hard not to be cynical regarding Musk's involvement here. I noticed Doge had leapt by 25%+, then I read the tweet you posted. This appears to be utter pump and dump from someone who really should know better. Kids are buying this crap based on his lead. Musk is many things, but technically illiterate is not one of them. Just like he has always known Bitcoin is an environmental nightmare, he is also fully aware that Doge is a joke.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/110306/it-was-created-joke-theres-no-limit-its-supply%C2%A0it-appears-have-no-purpose-it-has-market#:~:text=And%20unlike%20Bitcoin%2C%20there's%20no,a%20capped%20supply%2C%20like%20Bitcoin.

https://www.cnet.com/news/dogecoin-the-origin-story-of-the-elon-musk-supported-cryptocurrency/

I've only looked into a few, randomly chosen crypto tokens, purely 'proof of stake' that requires literally millions of times less resource. So I am not trying to say that Ada is the way forward, it is just an example. It is driven by peer-reviewed scientific research, it's trying to solve problems, it uses a miniscule fraction of the energy of PoW This link shows how, to my way of thinking, blockchain may really have a use and even be a force for good. What I don’t like is the way the founders appear to be trying to smooze Musk. Most Cardano developers and users regard that prospect with horror – previously decent forums would become useless meme-fests should Musk ever bring it to general attention.

https://africa.cardano.org/

There are others - Stellar and Algo are couple I have looked at, but Doge? Yes, Musk will surely monetise crypto - he already has and is - there's one born every day, and he has the influence to milk them hard. But it does not reflect well on him IMHO.

https://www.coindesk.com/crypto/stellar-xlm

https://boxmining.com/algorand/

To me crypto looks very like 'dot.com' in 1999 - proliferation of mainly junk that will spectularly collapse at some point - a few years after that we will find out the Amazons are Googles are.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#411913

Postby odysseus2000 » May 14th, 2021, 1:09 pm

NotSure wrote:I'm neither a fanboy or a hater of crypto. I've read enough to understand that blockchain most certainly has its uses, and like the internet, I agree it will grow, but I don't think as an innovation it remotely approaches the internet in its potential to disrupt.

Like Musk, I do not like BTC, or the concept of PoW - to me, it's a totally unnecessary waste of resources, whether those resources are renewable, fossil fuelled or simply computational power. Unlike Musk, I really do not see Doge as the solution. If you trace back Doge 'genes' it leads straight back to Bitcoin. It has no cap on it's supply, few if any serious developers or any USP use cases. It is hard not to be cynical regarding Musk's involvement here. I noticed Doge had leapt by 25%+, then I read the tweet you posted. This appears to be utter pump and dump from someone who really should know better. Kids are buying this crap based on his lead. Musk is many things, but technically illiterate is not one of them. Just like he has always known Bitcoin is an environmental nightmare, he is also fully aware that Doge is a joke.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/110306/it-was-created-joke-theres-no-limit-its-supply%C2%A0it-appears-have-no-purpose-it-has-market#:~:text=And%20unlike%20Bitcoin%2C%20there's%20no,a%20capped%20supply%2C%20like%20Bitcoin.

https://www.cnet.com/news/dogecoin-the-origin-story-of-the-elon-musk-supported-cryptocurrency/

I've only looked into a few, randomly chosen crypto tokens, purely 'proof of stake' that requires literally millions of times less resource. So I am not trying to say that Ada is the way forward, it is just an example. It is driven by peer-reviewed scientific research, it's trying to solve problems, it uses a miniscule fraction of the energy of PoW This link shows how, to my way of thinking, blockchain may really have a use and even be a force for good. What I don’t like is the way the founders appear to be trying to smooze Musk. Most Cardano developers and users regard that prospect with horror – previously decent forums would become useless meme-fests should Musk ever bring it to general attention.

https://africa.cardano.org/

There are others - Stellar and Algo are couple I have looked at, but Doge? Yes, Musk will surely monetise crypto - he already has and is - there's one born every day, and he has the influence to milk them hard. But it does not reflect well on him IMHO.

https://www.coindesk.com/crypto/stellar-xlm

https://boxmining.com/algorand/

To me crypto looks very like 'dot.com' in 1999 - proliferation of mainly junk that will spectularly collapse at some point - a few years after that we will find out the Amazons are Googles are.


Good points! Thank you for posting.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#411989

Postby odysseus2000 » May 14th, 2021, 8:09 pm

Munro, Polestar, episode 2, (9 mins 27 seconds) looking in more detail under the bonnet:

https://youtu.be/HWYhxmmZvSw

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#412009

Postby BobbyD » May 14th, 2021, 10:47 pm

ID.4 now from £32,150 after govsub.

Volkswagen has added two new variants to its ID.4 SUV range. Called City and Style, they take the ID.4’s trim levels to seven, including the soon on sale, hot GTX version.

The City variant will be the new entry-level model and it qualifies for the government’s re-jigged plug-in car grant, dropping the ID.4 starting price to £32,150. The Style comes with more equipment as standard and starts from £38,150.

Both the City and Style can be had with what VW calls the Pure and Pure Performance powertrains. For both, the battery has a 52kWh capacity - somewhat smaller than the 77kWh cell found in the Life, Family and Max models. It is linked to an electric motor developing 146bhp in Pure guise, or 168bhp in the Pure Performance version.


- https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volkswage ... e-variants

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Re: Musk endeavours

#412235

Postby NotSure » May 15th, 2021, 6:23 pm

Musk currently live on YouTube (noticed it while looking at pensioncraft video - honest!).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUHgY4mjZL4&ab_channel=DogeCoinFoundation

He's rather honest and considered. He just stated why new car companies have virtually no chance of succeeding, and that both electrification AND autonomy will be needed for Tesla to survive.

He also seems to be trying to tank Doge for 'the greater good' - he's giving loads away and asking 'whales' to sell, all in the interests of 'democratisation of crypto'.

He really is quite an enigma!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#412244

Postby murraypaul » May 15th, 2021, 6:53 pm

NotSure wrote:He really is quite an enigma!


That's one way of putting it.
Another would be that he seems to be unstable, and allowed to run Tesla as his own personal toy, with no effective corporate governance.
While the cars might be good, I wouldn't think of investing in a company where you have to check each morning whether your CEO has tweeted something that has tanked your stock.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#412248

Postby NotSure » May 15th, 2021, 7:01 pm

murraypaul wrote:
NotSure wrote:He really is quite an enigma!


That's one way of putting it.
Another would be that he seems to be unstable, and allowed to run Tesla as his own personal toy, with no effective corporate governance.
While the cars might be good, I wouldn't think of investing in a company where you have to check each morning whether your CEO has tweeted something that has tanked your stock.


While the YouTube video I linked does seem to be a genuine live interview (and quite interesting), I think it is actually a scam, regarding Doge. I missed the first hour, so if he mentioned Doge, which is of no interest to me, it must have been earlier on.

Anyway, I would agree regarding TSLA stock - there is not a bargepole long enough - but his description of the strategy and logistics of launching a global car brand, and the reasons that such a venture is almost certainly doomed to failure, was quite interesting.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#412261

Postby odysseus2000 » May 15th, 2021, 7:57 pm

NotSure wrote:Musk currently live on YouTube (noticed it while looking at pensioncraft video - honest!).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUHgY4mjZL4&ab_channel=DogeCoinFoundation

He's rather honest and considered. He just stated why new car companies have virtually no chance of succeeding, and that both electrification AND autonomy will be needed for Tesla to survive.

He also seems to be trying to tank Doge for 'the greater good' - he's giving loads away and asking 'whales' to sell, all in the interests of 'democratisation of crypto'.

He really is quite an enigma!


Clicked on the link and video was playing and then it vanished and now says the video is private.

What I saw seemed similar to a video he did a while back at his house with some or all of the same folk around the table. No idea really, but giving away dogecoin as was to the left of the video makes me suspicious that it was either a scam or an hacked real video.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#412272

Postby NotSure » May 15th, 2021, 8:35 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Clicked on the link and video was playing and then it vanished and now says the video is private.

What I saw seemed similar to a video he did a while back at his house with some or all of the same folk around the table. No idea really, but giving away dogecoin as was to the left of the video makes me suspicious that it was either a scam or an hacked real video.

Regards,


Pretty sure what I watched was wrapped by a Doge scam. However, I found the video of Musk (and a bunch of sycophants, though he did not revel in their adulation) very interesting. That section I saw was about beoming a global vehicle manufacturer and all the complexities and dilemmas that brings. If you have any links to similar stuff, I'd appreciate it.

One standout comment was Musk's stated belief that to succeed, he felt he needed to crack both electrification and automation. Not sure how old the purloined video was.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#412287

Postby odysseus2000 » May 15th, 2021, 9:18 pm

I think this is the original video that I am now reasonably certain was hacked by Doge coin scammers (3hours 35 mins):

https://youtu.be/J9oEc0wCQDE

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#412321

Postby onthemove » May 15th, 2021, 10:50 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:I think this is the original video that I am now reasonably certain was hacked by Doge coin scammers (3hours 35 mins):

https://youtu.be/J9oEc0wCQDE

Regards,


I think I misunderstood your post on first reading.

I thought you meant that video you linked to was the hacked one, but on re-reading, do you mean that you think someone used that video as the foundation to create a new, separate hacked (or rather 'faked' / 'modified') video that was published by someone else - the one that is now private?

Because there are a number of factors in relation to the video you linked to, that on initial cursory analysis would lead me to towards believing it genuine, and unlikely hacked.

It's just when I encounter the word 'hacked', I usually understand it to mean someone accessed by dodgy means - and modified directly at source - something they shouldn't have had access to; I wouldn't usually consider taking a copy of a publicly available thing, that's freely accessible to all, and then creating a derived work and publishing it elsewhere, while leaving the original in place, as be being 'hacked'...


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