Musk endeavours

[Itsallaguess]

I am saying that when someone buys a NEW model car they are offered upgrades and that for many of Tesla's customers that upgrade costs Tesla essentially nothing as it comes free on the top of the range models and has to be developed for that model, so the cost to put this on a lower spec car is minimal.

A couple of posts back the cost was zero...

I think you're both underplaying the cross-model development and testing costs, and overplaying the availability of such cross-model options (given the likely different hardware involved), and also overplaying the availability of such lower-end model software options because it's the differentiation in software options that plays some part in driving those higher-end model uptakes.

Your comparison with Windows software is flawed, because the PC hardware behind that model was largely based on similar underlying PC architecture, with the main differences in the associated hardware being related to performance (CPU speed, memory etc..) based, and I think trying to compare that business model to electric car development in this specific area is flawed..

I agree that there will be benefits to returns in this area, but disagree with the huge extrapolation that you're keen to assume...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[dspp]

I am saying that when someone buys a NEW model car they are offered upgrades and that for many of Tesla's customers that upgrade costs Tesla essentially nothing as it comes free on the top of the range models and has to be developed for that model, so the cost to put this on a lower spec car is minimal.

A couple of posts back the cost was zero...

I think you're both underplaying the cross-model development and testing costs, and overplaying the availability of such cross-model options (given the likely different hardware involved), and also overplaying the availability of such lower-end model software options because it's the differentiation in software options that plays some part in driving those higher-end model uptakes.

Your comparison with Windows software is flawed, because the PC hardware behind that model was largely based on similar underlying PC architecture, with the main differences in the associated hardware being related to performance (CPU speed, memory etc..) based, and I think trying to compare that business model to electric car development in this specific area is flawed..

I agree that there will be benefits to returns in this area, but disagree with the huge extrapolation that you're keen to assume...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

iag,

I don't quite have ody's full-on attitude to TSLA, but what he is saying about this is IMHO relatively correct.

There are a lot less hardware build options in a Tesla than there are in PC or Apple. The sensor suite is relatively common throughout, and that has been consistent at interface and function level. Yes there is a HW1 that cannot become HW2 but there are very few of those. Then HW2 can be module-replaced to become HW3, so too can HW2.5 be module replaced to become HW3. I am not sure if the HW4 will be backwards replaceable in the same way, but I rather suspect Tesla will be trying to achieve it.

Then let us look at the cost/benefit. A hardware swap of the main computer is going to be a $1k item. Yet a FSD upgrade is $8k or so at current functionality levels. So even if (worst case) TSLA needed to spend $1k on that transaction it would still be very attractive. But most of those FSD switch-ons and mid-life purchases are at zero marginal cost with no HW change required. $8k for free is good profit.

More minor software enablements, such as enabling heated seats or whatever, are smaller $$ but still no marginal cost to Tesla (apart from the trivial automated OTA sales cycle). That is exactly why an industry is trying to get in on the action with $-driven aftermarket hacking, prompting the normal cat-and-mouse game https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2020/08/tesl ... e-model-3/ .

regards, dspp

[redsturgeon]

As a point of information there are existing ICE cars that have features built into them that are actually only enabled on the higher spec models but are already hard wired into all models.

The other thing to be aware of is that having software that can be updated remotely works both ways and Tesla owners have also been on the receiving end of losing features that they thought they were entitled to. It can be a bit of a shock to find, without warning, your car is suddenly lacking some feature it once had.

John

[dealtn]

Yet a FSD upgrade is $8k or so at current functionality levels.

I don't have a dog in this fight.

But what would I as a consumer be getting by spending $8k?

I can't imagine spending anything remotely like that as a second hand car owner for anything, so enlighten me please.

[dspp]

Yet a FSD upgrade is $8k or so at current functionality levels.

I don't have a dog in this fight.

But what would I as a consumer be getting by spending $8k?

I can't imagine spending anything remotely like that as a second hand car owner for anything, so enlighten me please.

You get the interim release of Full Self Drive if I understand correctly, plus you get upgraded for free every time a new SW release comes out right up until the full FSD suite is fully functional - whenever that is. The free upgrades include any HW upgrades that are required, and if I am monitoring the situation correctly then it seems they will reach that objective with the existing sensor suite and with HW3, so HW4 upgrades may not be required.

Personally, for my current use case, I too cannot imagine paying for it. But plenty out there seem to think it is worth it. If you just read user reports etc and filter out the trolling there seems to be a consensus that for big milers it takes a lot of fatigue away. Many of them make the point that they plan to keep their cars for several years so they look on it as $1k per year or something. At the end of the day a feature is worth what the market is prepared to pay, so each to their own. There seems to be a 30d free trial option so whoever is paying has a good chance to try it out before deciding.

I've not been able to ever really find out the uptake rate. (does anyone have good data they can share ?) In due course I expect to see it as a rental option, e.g. pay $250 to enable it for a big roadtrip or something.

This is the big ticket item, but there are a few other things that can be software enabled so I think Ody is making a relevant point. And I expect that future models will deliberately build in these sort of enhanced revenue opportunities. I'm sure all manufacturers will be doing this more and more, and not just in automotive, but right now TSLA seem to be furthest along the pathway.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

As a point of information there are existing ICE cars that have features built into them that are actually only enabled on the higher spec models but are already hard wired into all models.

The other thing to be aware of is that having software that can be updated remotely works both ways and Tesla owners have also been on the receiving end of losing features that they thought they were entitled to. It can be a bit of a shock to find, without warning, your car is suddenly lacking some feature it once had.

John

Yes, it is now standard across many manufacturing industries to make 1 board with all the bells and whistles and then to only active a subset for the lower priced machines. This is usually a firmware plus perhaps some display and/or switch unit, but all of that requires an engineer to visit. Even with extensive hype about the Internet of things, such upgrades are mostly currently not available over the air.

The features of having Tesla know about what has been done to your car is becoming a point of conflict in the right to repair movement. E.g. one guy used a third party app to improve his Tesla, when the next software upgrade came about Tesla 'saw' the upgrade and caused trouble:

https://youtu.be/Uc7gDmIq0DI

Also see, the link provided by dspp earlier:

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2020/08/tesl ... e-model-3/

Rossman in the video argues that if one changed an ICE car, a gas station would not refuse to sell you gas. This will be a thorny issue and will almost certainly end up in the courts imho.

However, the right to repair movement has not caused Apple to lose money and that might apply to Tesla. Moreover, whereas Apple arguing that modifying an iPhone is a safety risk without too much substance, modifying a Tesla might become more of a serious substantive safety issue.

Regards,

[Jam2Day]

Those who have been round the block a few times will have perhaps noticed the fundamental view rarely changes despite the recycled advertising logos, that restaurant that continues to change hands, the tenement block that resembles a prison, the reborn again salesman on his treadmill and the street corner pundit who continues to peddle the game of the day with confounding success, all presided over by the man in a suit who lives and works in some far off place. When I think of Tesla I get a strange twitching sensation and the hairs on the back of my neck stand on end. De Lorean springs to mind as a case study in brinkmanship. However brilliant Elton Munch may or may not be, the one thing that is beyond reasonable doubt, as things stand, is that the world cannot currently replace existing forms of fossil fuelled independent transport with the electric variety without incurring considerable costs that will more than likely exceed the existing benchmark. Tell that to Joe. I like science. It fascinates me but it is not infallible. I prefer the approach of evolution over revolution. Needs must, the mother of invention and all that good stuff. There is something rather compelling about Sir Isaac Newton's simple definitions on the laws of physics. It seems to me one should always compare apples with apples back in the real world. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, anyone who believes otherwise is either careless or foolish

[dealtn]

Yet a FSD upgrade is $8k or so at current functionality levels.

I don't have a dog in this fight.

But what would I as a consumer be getting by spending $8k?

I can't imagine spending anything remotely like that as a second hand car owner for anything, so enlighten me please.

You get the interim release of Full Self Drive if I understand correctly, plus you get upgraded for free every time a new SW release comes out right up until the full FSD suite is fully functional - whenever that is. The free upgrades include any HW upgrades that are required, and if I am monitoring the situation correctly then it seems they will reach that objective with the existing sensor suite and with HW3, so HW4 upgrades may not be required.

Personally, for my current use case, I too cannot imagine paying for it. But plenty out there seem to think it is worth it.

Well there may be some market for it, but it's a no from me. I can't imagine paying a penny for it, regardless of the car it was a feature on.

Thanks for the explanation.

[odysseus2000]

Those who have been round the block a few times will have perhaps noticed the fundamental view rarely changes despite the recycled advertising logos, that restaurant that continues to change hands, the tenement block that resembles a prison, the reborn again salesman on his treadmill and the street corner pundit who continues to peddle the game of the day with confounding success, all presided over by the man in a suit who lives and works in some far off place. When I think of Tesla I get a strange twitching sensation and the hairs on the back of my neck stand on end. De Lorean springs to mind as a case study in brinkmanship. However brilliant Elton Munch may or may not be, the one thing that is beyond reasonable doubt, as things stand, is that the world cannot currently replace existing forms of fossil fuelled independent transport with the electric variety without incurring considerable costs that will more than likely exceed the existing benchmark. Tell that to Joe. I like science. It fascinates me but it is not infallible. I prefer the approach of evolution over revolution. Needs must, the mother of invention and all that good stuff. There is something rather compelling about Sir Isaac Newton's simple definitions on the laws of physics. It seems to me one should always compare apples with apples back in the real world. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, anyone who believes otherwise is either careless or foolish

“Nature and Nature's laws lay hid in night:
God said, Let Newton be! and all was light.”

The Devil shouting Ho!
Said let Einstein be
and restored the status quo.

jam2Day the one thing that is beyond reasonable doubt, as things stand, is that the world cannot currently replace existing forms of fossil fuelled independent transport with the electric variety without incurring considerable costs that will more than likely exceed the existing benchmark.

The world replaces cars at something like 10% per year, so what ever most people drive now will in many cases be scrapped in 10 years.

Many now argue that the world cannot not replace ICE cars as soon as possible for reasons of climate change and pollution.

Is 10 years evolution or revolution?

I can see no technical reason why most cars will not be BEV by 2030. There is no shortage of electricity, no shortage of battery raw materials and there is no shortage of people who want rid of ICE vehicles and even less shortage of folk who want their next car to out perform their present one and most BEV out perform equivalent ICE models in all respects.

Regards,

[Howard]

Even Elektrek are wondering if demand for the Model 3 in China is lower than expected.

Electrek's Take:

"The thing that concerns me more about this change is that Tesla wasn’t supposed to even be able to export made-in-China Model 3 vehicles because the demand would be so great in China.

They would need all the cars they can make for domestic demand.

If that has changed, is it because demand is weaker than expected, or is Tesla achieving a higher output at Gigafactory Shanghai?"


My take: The sales level for the last three months has been lower than expected and Tesla may now be building for stock in China.

regards

Howard

https://electrek.co/2020/09/11/tesla-ex ... hina-cars/

[Itsallaguess]

There are a lot less hardware build options in a Tesla than there are in PC or Apple. The sensor suite is relatively common throughout, and that has been consistent at interface and function level. Yes there is a HW1 that cannot become HW2 but there are very few of those. Then HW2 can be module-replaced to become HW3, so too can HW2.5 be module replaced to become HW3. I am not sure if the HW4 will be backwards replaceable in the same way, but I rather suspect Tesla will be trying to achieve it.

Then let us look at the cost/benefit. A hardware swap of the main computer is going to be a $1k item. Yet a FSD upgrade is $8k or so at current functionality levels. So even if (worst case) TSLA needed to spend $1k on that transaction it would still be very attractive. But most of those FSD switch-ons and mid-life purchases are at zero marginal cost with no HW change required. $8k for free is good profit.

Are the global numbers there for the exponential take-up of such complicated and expensive through-life ownership of cars, do you think?

Surely the world is heading in this direction for much of our day-to-day local mileage?

The vehicle is cheap and the reactions from the pavement are a bonus, from the disbelieving double-take or uncontrolled giggle to the frankly envious where-do-I-get-one-of-those (plus the odd pitying stare, but then this is Paris).

At first glance, Citroën’s new Ami, a playful polypropylene cube on wheels with an unashamedly Toytown aesthetic, seems hardly the kind of car to excite the passions of France’s drivers. But, perhaps because it is not a car, that is just what it is doing.

“We sold 500 in the first fortnight,” says Citroën’s Sylvie Krygier in the carmaker’s showroom in the 15th arrondissement. “It’s a recognition our transport habits and requirements are changing, and it’s accessible to almost everyone.”

Classed as a light quadricycle, the Ami is, Citroën says, an “urban mobility object”. All-electric, 2.4 metres long and 1.4m wide, with a top speed of 45km/h (28mph) and a range of 75km (46 miles), it can be driven in France without a full licence by anyone aged 14 or over.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/11/ami-the-tiny-cube-on-wheels-that-french-14-year-olds-can-drive

The cost?

Around $7k, so less that the Full Self Drive software upgrade of a Tesla, and it can fully charge in three hours off a normal domestic socket...

Tesla have fantastic technology, but it's high-end stuff compared to what's needed for huge parts of people's day-to-day travel requirements around the world...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[odysseus2000]

Tesla daily has done interesting thoughts on the potential export of cars from Gigantic Shanghai:

https://youtu.be/4YNUtiwlH18

He notes that the Asian markets named are right hand drive and that Europe may mean the UK. I.e. Instead if right hand drive bring done in Giga Fremont, it is instead done in Giga Shanghai.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -can-drive

The cost?

Around $7k, so less that the Full Self Drive software upgrade of a Tesla, and it can fully charge in three hours off a normal domestic socket...

Tesla have fantastic technology, but it's high-end stuff compared to what's needed for huge parts of people's day-to-day travel requirements around the world...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

An electric bicycle would be cheaper, easier to store, but with slightly less safety.

How many folk would want to be on the roads in a light weight & very limited crash survival machine?

Regards,

[dspp]

Strong BEV growth in Europe
https://insideevs.com/news/442639/plugi ... 0-country/

If you look at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjU3uwm ... e=youtu.be you can see the effect of a local factory in stabilising & growing sales

regards, dspp

[kiloran]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -can-drive

The cost?

Around $7k, so less that the Full Self Drive software upgrade of a Tesla, and it can fully charge in three hours off a normal domestic socket...

Tesla have fantastic technology, but it's high-end stuff compared to what's needed for huge parts of people's day-to-day travel requirements around the world...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

An electric bicycle would be cheaper, easier to store, but with slightly less safety.
Regards,

And a roller skate.....? Reductio ad absurdum

How many folk would want to be on the roads in a light weight & very limited crash survival machine?
Regards,

Horses for courses. It's not intended as a motorway speedster. It's clearly intended for the logjam that is Paris in the rush hour (or almost any other hour for that matter). At walking pace, crash survival technology is low down the list of priorities

--kiloran

[odysseus2000]

Horses for courses. It's not intended as a motorway speedster. It's clearly intended for the logjam that is Paris in the rush hour (or almost any other hour for that matter). At walking pace, crash survival technology is low down the list of priorities

--kiloran

Yes, but you have to have somewhere to store it and if you want to drive any distance you will need a second car.

It likely has a niche market, but it is not a mass market, single vehicle that has been the model for most in our crowded island.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -can-drive

The cost?

Around $7k, so less that the Full Self Drive software upgrade of a Tesla, and it can fully charge in three hours off a normal domestic socket...

Tesla have fantastic technology, but it's high-end stuff compared to what's needed for huge parts of people's day-to-day travel requirements around the world...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

An electric bicycle would be cheaper, easier to store, but with slightly less safety.

How many folk would want to be on the roads in a light weight & very limited crash survival machine?

Regards,

I think you are letting your bias run away with you.

If you are in the US where medium distance intercity or suburban travel along freeways is your goal then a comfortable fast safe BEV with good range is great.

If you are in crowded Europe and want a cheap weatherproof mode of transport that is Covid secure and does a max 45kph within a city environment then other solutions rather than a £50k Tesla may be applicable.

A four wheel enclosed car is many times safer than a two wheeled exposed bike. But for many people the electric bike would indeed be the best option.

Obviously though a regularly used normal bike has been shown to be safer than any car since by staying fit your increase you life expectancy not to mention avoiding pollution which also kills people (and which even BEVs create).

John

[redsturgeon]

Sensible transport systems are a multi factorial mix of walking, cycling, personal and public transport.

Tesla is not the answer to everything.

John

[Itsallaguess]

An electric bicycle would be cheaper, easier to store, but with slightly less safety.

All I'm suggesting is that if we've got the ultimate penis-extensions at one end of the future personal-transport spectrum, where Tesla owners can worry about where the next lump of cash might come from to pay for the latest wiper-frequency update, and we've got electric bikes at the other end, then there's an awfully huge landscape in-between those two points that seems to always be assumed on this thread to be gravitating towards the penis-extension end of the market...

Of course, some people will always have the need for expensive penis-extensions in the form of the cars that they drive, but the investment case here seems to assume that everyone will, and that's simply not the case...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[odysseus2000]

All I'm suggesting is that if we've got the ultimate penis-extensions at one end of the future personal-transport spectrum, where Tesla owners can worry about where the next lump of cash might come from to pay for the latest wiper-frequency update, and we've got electric bikes at the other end, then there's an awfully huge landscape in-between those two points that seems to always be assumed on this thread to be gravitating towards the penis-extension end of the market...

Of course, some people will always have the need for expensive penis-extensions in the form of the cars that they drive, but the investment case here seems to assume that everyone will, and that's simply not the case...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Ha Ha!

Yes, but I am trying to consider investment opportunities and ways to make money.

I don't like buying stuff, especially new stuff that depreciates and I always advise people to choose the least expensive options. But hardly anyone takes my advice.

The frugal, save and make do attitude that has been my guide is not shared by many people.

Most people want the latest stuff, that is free from issues of repair, is safe and indicates their status in society.

If we enter a depression and many folk lose their jobs this may all change, but for now we live in extremely prosperous times and there is enough of a market for new, see my manhood type purchases and that is why I believe Tesla has a strong investment case.

It is not what I do, but it seems to me to be what enough of the population do to make the investment case. I have zero interest in leasing a car, but many people do that and as an investor I make my investments to suit what the folk with money spend it on in the hope that some of their money will trickle down into my pockets.

Regards,