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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#452233

Postby odysseus2000 » October 22nd, 2021, 1:21 pm

dealtn
Well it must depend on what you refer to as "it" surely.

The fault on making what turn out to be incorrect claims on when the site's readiness, launch, and production take place can't be laid at the door of others can it, even if the reasons for its delay can?


When Tesla started to look at sites for a new giga factory the politicians in the candidate nations offered all manner of incentives and assurances of the factory being able to operate once it was built.

In the case of Berlin, the factory is ready, but the assurances that Tesla received have turned out to be hollow. Tesla based its advertising on the assurance it received and was hoodwinked.

There has been intense lobbying by numerous groups to have the factory delayed or better shut down and these have dragged on and on hurting Tesla and Germany's reputation has a honourable nation committed to being state of the art in manufacturing, renewables and low pollution.

This kind of luddite behaviour and the inability of the politicians to suppress it is killing European competitiveness and meanwhile Chinese business are powering ahead at such a level that they could make obsolete much of Germany's manufacturing base.

This type of luddite behaviour is very common in Europe especially with well paid professionals who are slowly coming to realise that AI can do their jobs better and for much lower cost.

IMO there is no option other than embrace these new methods and develop new support systems for the people whose skills will become obsolete. US and Chinese private companies are raising billions of $ for these new fields with large number of hardware, software and similar startups all aimed at the biggest industrial revolution humanity has ever seen.

However, I doubt any of this is going to go quietly and easily. One can think of the disruptions in fleet street when the new print technology replaced the old and then muliply that by a large fraction of the economy.

The people who are delaying Tesla Berlin no doubt believe what they are doing is right and good and that all these new technologies will go away, but they will not.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452235

Postby odysseus2000 » October 22nd, 2021, 1:24 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dealtn wrote:Well it must depend on what you refer to as "it" surely.

The fault on making what turn out to be incorrect claims on when the site's readiness, launch, and production take place can't be laid at the door of others can it, even if the reasons for its delay can?


It's a good job somebody with Musk's somewhat limited ability to assess risk isn't involved in this Autonomous Driving malarky!


Its a pity that legacy auto has considered new technology to be too much of risk, forgetting that the biggest risk is that they do not evolve and cease to be competitive.

As DIess has noted, Tesla make a car in 10 hours, VW take 30 hours to make an inferior car and have worse margins.

As I have noted many times all of legacy auto trades on ridiculously high p/e.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452238

Postby odysseus2000 » October 22nd, 2021, 1:27 pm

As an indication of the threat from China, Xpeng have grown sales 199% year over year:

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/21/xp ... over-year/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452338

Postby odysseus2000 » October 22nd, 2021, 6:40 pm

Munro on number 2 BEV maker in the US, hint it is not VW:

https://youtu.be/ky0MO5GEq-o

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452402

Postby odysseus2000 » October 22nd, 2021, 11:45 pm

Munroe on how he approaches problems in design and comparisons with Elon Musk:

Part 1 (36 mins)

https://youtu.be/ROOiCUfj9pw

and part 2, (45 mins):

https://youtu.be/9bZGWOrDBpg

If you want to know how Tesla has beaten legacy this is very interesting viewing.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452598

Postby BobbyD » October 24th, 2021, 6:47 am

Tesla increases Model S and Model X prices by $5,000


- Tesla increases Model S and Model X prices by $5,000

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452600

Postby BobbyD » October 24th, 2021, 7:27 am

EXCLUSIVE Dutch forensic lab says it has decoded Tesla's driving data

LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The Dutch government's forensic lab said on Thursday it had decrypted electric carmaker Tesla Inc's (TSLA.O) closely guarded driving data-storage system, uncovering a wealth of information that could be used to investigate serious accidents.

...The NFI said the decrypted data showed Tesla vehicles store information about the operation of its driver assistance system, known as Autopilot. The vehicles also record speed, accelerator pedal position, steering wheel angle and brake usage, and depending on how the vehicle is used, that data can be stored for over a year.

"These data contain a wealth of information for forensic investigators and traffic accident analysts and can help with a criminal investigation after a fatal traffic accident or an accident with injury," Francis Hoogendijk, a digital investigator at the NFI, said in a statement.

...The NFI investigated a collision involving a Tesla driver using Autopilot and a car in front of it that suddenly braked hard.

The investigation showed the Tesla driver reacted within the expected response time to a warning to resume control of the car, but the collision occurred because the Tesla was following the other vehicle too closely in busy traffic.

"That makes it interesting, because who is responsible for the following distance: the car or the driver?" said NFI investigator Aart Spek.

...The NFI found that Tesla had complied with data requests from the Dutch authorities, but left out a lot of data that could have proven useful.

"Tesla however only supplies a specific subset of signals, only the ones requested, for a specific timeframe, whereas the log files contain all the recorded signals," the NFI's report said.


- https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 021-10-21/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452620

Postby odysseus2000 » October 24th, 2021, 10:53 am

BobbyD wrote:
Tesla increases Model S and Model X prices by $5,000


- Tesla increases Model S and Model X prices by $5,000


Wonder how much of this will go into margins?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452624

Postby odysseus2000 » October 24th, 2021, 11:00 am

BobbyD wrote:
EXCLUSIVE Dutch forensic lab says it has decoded Tesla's driving data

LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The Dutch government's forensic lab said on Thursday it had decrypted electric carmaker Tesla Inc's (TSLA.O) closely guarded driving data-storage system, uncovering a wealth of information that could be used to investigate serious accidents.

...The NFI said the decrypted data showed Tesla vehicles store information about the operation of its driver assistance system, known as Autopilot. The vehicles also record speed, accelerator pedal position, steering wheel angle and brake usage, and depending on how the vehicle is used, that data can be stored for over a year.

"These data contain a wealth of information for forensic investigators and traffic accident analysts and can help with a criminal investigation after a fatal traffic accident or an accident with injury," Francis Hoogendijk, a digital investigator at the NFI, said in a statement.

...The NFI investigated a collision involving a Tesla driver using Autopilot and a car in front of it that suddenly braked hard.

The investigation showed the Tesla driver reacted within the expected response time to a warning to resume control of the car, but the collision occurred because the Tesla was following the other vehicle too closely in busy traffic.

"That makes it interesting, because who is responsible for the following distance: the car or the driver?" said NFI investigator Aart Spek.

...The NFI found that Tesla had complied with data requests from the Dutch authorities, but left out a lot of data that could have proven useful.

"Tesla however only supplies a specific subset of signals, only the ones requested, for a specific timeframe, whereas the log files contain all the recorded signals," the NFI's report said.


- https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 021-10-21/


I am not sure there is anything new here and making this hack public may motivate Tesla to increase the security to make the data more secure and more difficult to hack.

We are back to the battle of the locksmiths.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452876

Postby BobbyD » October 25th, 2021, 11:15 am

Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·
15h
Seeing some issues with 10.3, so rolling back to 10.2 temporarily.

Please note, this is to be expected with beta software. It is impossible to test all hardware configs in all conditions with internal QA, hence public beta


- https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1452345284483235841

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452903

Postby BobbyD » October 25th, 2021, 12:37 pm

Volkswagen has started selling the ID.3 in China. Three variants are offered at prices starting at 159,888 yuan, the equivalent of about 21,500 euros. As reported, the compact electric car is produced locally by SAIC Volkswagen in Anting.


- https://www.electrive.com/2021/10/24/sa ... -in-china/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452934

Postby odysseus2000 » October 25th, 2021, 2:06 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Volkswagen has started selling the ID.3 in China. Three variants are offered at prices starting at 159,888 yuan, the equivalent of about 21,500 euros. As reported, the compact electric car is produced locally by SAIC Volkswagen in Anting.


- https://www.electrive.com/2021/10/24/sa ... -in-china/


Meanwhile Hertz buys 100,000 Tesla:

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/car ... 171433001/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452971

Postby odysseus2000 » October 25th, 2021, 4:30 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·
15h
Seeing some issues with 10.3, so rolling back to 10.2 temporarily.

Please note, this is to be expected with beta software. It is impossible to test all hardware configs in all conditions with internal QA, hence public beta


- https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1452345284483235841


10.3.1 rolling out now:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/145 ... 47266?s=20

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452989

Postby BobbyD » October 25th, 2021, 6:08 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·
15h
Seeing some issues with 10.3, so rolling back to 10.2 temporarily.

Please note, this is to be expected with beta software. It is impossible to test all hardware configs in all conditions with internal QA, hence public beta


- https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1452345284483235841


10.3.1 rolling out now:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/145 ... 47266?s=20

Regards,


But Musk has just proved that even by Tesla's lax standards they have put experimental software on public roads in the hands of untrained drivers which was not fit for purpose. He's also just shown that even if v1.1.1 is fine, you can not simply assume that v1.1.2 will also be fine, as has been pointed out on this board a number of times. Tesla should be running development programmes under license with trained safety drivers like everybody else.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452993

Postby odysseus2000 » October 25th, 2021, 6:18 pm

BobbyD
But Musk has just proved that even by Tesla's lax standards they have put experimental software on public roads in the hands of untrained drivers which was not fit for purpose. He's also just shown that even if v1.1.1 is fine, you can not simply assume that v1.1.2 will also be fine, as has been pointed out on this board a number of times. Tesla should be running development programmes under license with trained safety drivers like everybody else.


Tesla are purposefully selecting drivers who drive well and safely for these beta tests based on analysis of the drivers behaviour and have removed the updates from drivers who have not driven well.

When the system if finally released it will be for anyone wealthy enough to afford it and who drives safely. The first wealth test applies to any car, but the second is a new and very welcome development.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#452998

Postby BobbyD » October 25th, 2021, 7:31 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
But Musk has just proved that even by Tesla's lax standards they have put experimental software on public roads in the hands of untrained drivers which was not fit for purpose. He's also just shown that even if v1.1.1 is fine, you can not simply assume that v1.1.2 will also be fine, as has been pointed out on this board a number of times. Tesla should be running development programmes under license with trained safety drivers like everybody else.


Tesla are purposefully selecting drivers who drive well and safely for these beta tests based on analysis of the drivers behaviour and have removed the updates from drivers who have not driven well.

When the system if finally released it will be for anyone wealthy enough to afford it and who drives safely. The first wealth test applies to any car, but the second is a new and very welcome development.

Regards,


So you can show us an independent validation of Tesla's safety score as a suitable tool for judging the fitness of a driver to oversee an experimental piece of software on public roads?

Why would you need to be a safe driver to use FULL SELF DRIVING when it is finally released? You don't think that misses the point slightly?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#453013

Postby odysseus2000 » October 25th, 2021, 9:56 pm

BobbyD
So you can show us an independent validation of Tesla's safety score as a suitable tool for judging the fitness of a driver to oversee an experimental piece of software on public roads?

Why would you need to be a safe driver to use FULL SELF DRIVING when it is finally released? You don't think that misses the point slightly?


Tesla score is backed up by accident statistics.

When FSD is released it will be a final product, not a beta product and as things are currently Tesla will monitor drivers and withdraw the product if the driver is doing unsatisfactory things. Whether this will last when FSD is released I do not know, but if one can keep maniacs off the road and this leads to less accidents then it may be welcomed by regulators.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#453069

Postby BobbyD » October 26th, 2021, 4:32 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
So you can show us an independent validation of Tesla's safety score as a suitable tool for judging the fitness of a driver to oversee an experimental piece of software on public roads?

Why would you need to be a safe driver to use FULL SELF DRIVING when it is finally released? You don't think that misses the point slightly?


Tesla score is backed up by accident statistics.

When FSD is released it will be a final product, not a beta product and as things are currently Tesla will monitor drivers and withdraw the product if the driver is doing unsatisfactory things. Whether this will last when FSD is released I do not know, but if one can keep maniacs off the road and this leads to less accidents then it may be welcomed by regulators.


Regards,


So show us the statistics which validate safety score as a fit and proper methodology for assessing the suitability of drivers to oversee experimental software on public roads.

When FSD is released won't the driver be the car? Or are you now dropping the pretence that Teslas will ever be autonomous?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#453132

Postby odysseus2000 » October 26th, 2021, 10:34 am

BobbyD
So show us the statistics which validate safety score as a fit and proper methodology for assessing the suitability of drivers to oversee experimental software on public roads.

When FSD is released won't the driver be the car? Or are you now dropping the pretence that Teslas will ever be autonomous?


How many accidents have been shown to be due to auto pilot?

The final release, fully autonomous version of autopilot will be a pure robotic drive, with no human involvement. In the mean time Tesla try and make their cars as safe as possible and this includes removing the features from people who abuse them.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#453157

Postby BobbyD » October 26th, 2021, 11:23 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
So show us the statistics which validate safety score as a fit and proper methodology for assessing the suitability of drivers to oversee experimental software on public roads.

When FSD is released won't the driver be the car? Or are you now dropping the pretence that Teslas will ever be autonomous?


How many accidents have been shown to be due to auto pilot?


We are talking about the new FSD beta not AP. You just claimed that

odysseus2000 wrote:
Tesla score is backed up by accident statistics.


So please show them to us.

Safety score has nothing to do with AP, it is the method Tesla are using to 'verify' that drivers are capable of handling the latest FSD, which by the way if you read the threads is roundly being reported as worse than the previous version.

odysseus2000 wrote:The final release, fully autonomous version of autopilot will be a pure robotic drive, with no human involvement. In the mean time Tesla try and make their cars as safe as possible and this includes removing the features from people who abuse them.


As safe as possible would involve licensed development trials with trained safety drivers.

Somewhat at odds with your earlier response...

odysseus2000 wrote:When the system if finally released it will be for anyone wealthy enough to afford it and who drives safely. The first wealth test applies to any car, but the second is a new and very welcome development.

Regards,


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