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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#329182

Postby odysseus2000 » July 28th, 2020, 12:45 pm

Bernstein returns to valuation arguments:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3595764-t ... ent=link-3

Such arguments have been run over by events previously, but the valuation are now higher, so it will be interesting to see what happens in todays session.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329269

Postby odysseus2000 » July 28th, 2020, 9:54 pm

China's ambassador to the US, notes China is opening its economy for investment and that China US relations also need new and clean energy, NOT pollution.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3596125-t ... ent=link-3

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329362

Postby odysseus2000 » July 29th, 2020, 9:50 am

Interesting tweet from Musk:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/128 ... 25952?s=20

If this happens and Tesla can supply there is a huge royalty income that I don't believe is in estimates.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329367

Postby odysseus2000 » July 29th, 2020, 10:00 am

A little more colour on Musk's statement:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3596458-t ... ent=link-3

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329447

Postby odysseus2000 » July 29th, 2020, 3:05 pm

Morgan Stanley analyst now expects that Tesla will become a very very large car maker, approaching if not exceeding the revenues of Toyota and VW:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3596713-t ... ent=link-3

The nice feature of Tesla is that not only may it become a very big auto company, but also a huge solar company and a huge storage company with the still unknown wild cards of its AI and Robotics divisions.

As a Tesla long the only think I fear is that something bad could happen to Elon Musk. Otherwise the performance of legacy auto, legacy grid and generators and legacy software, except Apple, leaves me feeling that their management either lacks vision or is in some other way constrained, but as every day goes by, Tesla are becoming stronger and the legacy competitors are predominantly stagnant. If legacy is to compete they will have to build new factories and focus on BEV, not try to be like BMW are, a supplier to every one from legacy ICE to ultra clean BEV.

It would not surprise me if Amazon also becomes a threat to all these legacy business as Bezos has the vision to see what is coming and the resources to grab himself a slice of the pie that is currently being baked and he would be happy to license Tesla tech.

Apple too could become strong in most of these areas and I expect that Chinese companies will begin to seek their own slices of the pie with the latest offering from Polestar and indication that they are developing the design and engineering skills to go with their mastery of high volume production.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329465

Postby dspp » July 29th, 2020, 4:18 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Morgan Stanley analyst now expects that Tesla will become a very very large car maker, approaching if not exceeding the revenues of Toyota and VW:


I guess Morgan Stanley have started factoring in the points people like Ark, or even amateurs like you and I have been making for some time now. When you apply the qualitative growing lead factors to quantitative spreadsheets and do some scenario analysis one does indeed end up with very big production (and valuation) very quickly. There is no rule that says there need to be 20-auto-manufacturers on the planet. If the right conditions exist it could tip into a duopoly of biggies such as airframers were until recently with Airbus/Boeing, with some mediums such as Embraer/Bombardier/Comac. And in multiple related segments - auto; storage; autonomy; etc. There was a

GM market share was once 50%, and back a long way I think Ford was even higher. It could come again:

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=ht ... egUIARDMAQ

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329525

Postby odysseus2000 » July 29th, 2020, 10:41 pm

Tesla factories, scale comparison:

https://twitter.com/Kristennetten/statu ... 28/photo/1

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329552

Postby Itsallaguess » July 30th, 2020, 6:35 am

Is one of the problems with Tesla, and UK electric cars in general, likely to be the lock-step strangle-hold that any underlying charging infrastructure is likely to have on public-perception?

What I mean by that is to ask what public opinion is likely to be, driven of course by a media that loves nothing better than to promote public anguish, if the large 'expected uptake' of electric cars that's often discussed on this thread actually occurs at a pace that is perhaps not being met by the roll-out of the underlying charging infrastructure that electric-car owners will no doubt expect 'to be there when they need it'...

Given that electric-car ownership is for some years yet perhaps likely to be 'clustered' to some degree around wealthier areas of the UK, then such infrastructure demands are also likely to be clustered to some degree too, and so I wondered how long it will take before the media start to get hold of the inevitable 'charging-point queue nightmare' stories that might begin to occur in any potential 'charging-area bottlenecks' that might spring up if that underlying charging infrastructure starts to look like it's not keeping up with the number of cars being sold in some wealthier areas...

One thing is certain, in that the media will absolutely love to promote such heartbreaking stories of 'the rich electric hare' being made to stand for hours in a long electric-charging queue, whilst the 'poor petrol tortoise' zips past them on their merry way to their destination, and I wonder if such stories might be likely to put a natural drag on electric-car uptake, if those stories are allowed to make their way into the public conciousness via our media's love for such heartbreaking stories?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329581

Postby Mike4 » July 30th, 2020, 8:43 am

Itsallaguess wrote:
One thing is certain, in that the media will absolutely love to promote such heartbreaking stories of 'the rich electric hare' being made to stand for hours in a long electric-charging queue, whilst the 'poor petrol tortoise' zips past them on their merry way to their destination, and I wonder if such stories might be likely to put a natural drag on electric-car uptake, if those stories are allowed to make their way into the public conciousness via our media's love for such heartbreaking stories?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


Never mind all that. For people poor as a church mouse like me the idea of spending £37k on an electric car is utterly ludicrous. This is what is really putting "a natural drag on electric-car uptake".

That's twice what I paid for my first house!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329586

Postby dspp » July 30th, 2020, 8:55 am

Itsallaguess wrote:
One thing is certain, in that the media will absolutely love to promote such heartbreaking stories of 'the rich electric hare' being made to stand for hours in a long electric-charging queue, whilst the 'poor petrol tortoise' zips past them on their merry way to their destination, and I wonder if such stories might be likely to put a natural drag on electric-car uptake, if those stories are allowed to make their way into the public conciousness via our media's love for such heartbreaking stories?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


Well as they start shutting down the petrol/diesel station network it will tend to concentrate minds. Fortunately there is a solution, already being roadtested:

"Driver who ran out of fuel rode e-scooter along M11"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-53579448

By the way, there are now more public electric charging points in the UK than there are fuel dispensers at fuel stations, and that is before one starts counting the electric connections at home/work.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329631

Postby odysseus2000 » July 30th, 2020, 10:46 am

Tabloid article: "I survived Covid, now the diesel particulates from all these UPS vans are killing me: Ugly brown polluting monsters!

UPS driver: "No! Our vans are BEV, no emissions at the point of use"

Tabloid: "More Chinese rubbish, can't we make anything here? Too expensive, nothing like cheap diesel even if it kills a few folk."

UPS driver: " They are made in England, all the bits, we bought 10,000 of them, price parity or less than diesel."

Tabloid: "Rubbish"

UPS driver:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I781itRPJH8

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329644

Postby tjh290633 » July 30th, 2020, 11:25 am

Mike4 wrote:Never mind all that. For people poor as a church mouse like me the idea of spending £37k on an electric car is utterly ludicrous. This is what is really putting "a natural drag on electric-car uptake".

That's twice what I paid for my first house!

That's 11 times what I paid for our first house in 1961. Also 50 times what I paid for my first new car in 1958, a VW Beetle for about £750.

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329703

Postby dealtn » July 30th, 2020, 1:41 pm

dspp wrote:By the way, there are now more public electric charging points in the UK than there are fuel dispensers at fuel stations, and that is before one starts counting the electric connections at home/work.



That reflects the problem surely. How long does it take to "refill" the BEV compared to the 2 minutes or so for ICE?

It's good to know the solution is being worked on, although I would hope it would be a "capitalist" solution not a "government" one.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329713

Postby dspp » July 30th, 2020, 2:06 pm

dealtn wrote:
dspp wrote:By the way, there are now more public electric charging points in the UK than there are fuel dispensers at fuel stations, and that is before one starts counting the electric connections at home/work.



That reflects the problem surely. How long does it take to "refill" the BEV compared to the 2 minutes or so for ICE?

It's good to know the solution is being worked on, although I would hope it would be a "capitalist" solution not a "government" one.


Reportedly approximately 5% of the mileage done by Teslas does not require public (roadside) charging. They leave home every day full to the brim. That is the typical user feedback.

In contrast 100% of dino-juice charging is done at public filling stations.

Tesla build their own charging stations, just like Shell or any other commercial company. They can be a valuable asset, or perhaps in the case of petrol/diesel stations a devaluing stranded asset.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329716

Postby dealtn » July 30th, 2020, 2:12 pm

dspp wrote:
dealtn wrote:
dspp wrote:By the way, there are now more public electric charging points in the UK than there are fuel dispensers at fuel stations, and that is before one starts counting the electric connections at home/work.



That reflects the problem surely. How long does it take to "refill" the BEV compared to the 2 minutes or so for ICE?

It's good to know the solution is being worked on, although I would hope it would be a "capitalist" solution not a "government" one.


Reportedly approximately 5% of the mileage done by Teslas does not require public (roadside) charging. They leave home every day full to the brim. That is the typical user feedback.

In contrast 100% of dino-juice charging is done at public filling stations.

Tesla build their own charging stations, just like Shell or any other commercial company. They can be a valuable asset, or perhaps in the case of petrol/diesel stations a devaluing stranded asset.

regards, dspp


The problem being though that 95% isn't then, and that it's the new users that are needed to transform the situation, not the existing ones.

Of course existing ones and their experiences (assuming they are good) are useful in this process, but I am currently struggling to see the BEV/ICE changeover happening at the speed some others see it (and from an investment perspective that TESLA benefit from most of this, and it isn't shared across multiple offerings).

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329722

Postby kiloran » July 30th, 2020, 2:49 pm

dspp wrote:Reportedly approximately 5% of the mileage done by Teslas does not require public (roadside) charging. They leave home every day full to the brim. That is the typical user feedback.

In contrast 100% of dino-juice charging is done at public filling stations.

I would guess that 100% of Tesla owners own their home and have an off-road driveway where they can charge their car overnight. That won't work for the large part of the population who only have roadside parking overnight.

--kiloran

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329723

Postby odysseus2000 » July 30th, 2020, 2:51 pm

dealtn
The problem being though that 95% isn't then, and that it's the new users that are needed to transform the situation, not the existing ones.

Of course existing ones and their experiences (assuming they are good) are useful in this process, but I am currently struggling to see the BEV/ICE changeover happening at the speed some others see it (and from an investment perspective that TESLA benefit from most of this, and it isn't shared across multiple offerings).


In the UK pre-Covid there were roughly 2 million new registrations per year.

If UK car registrations return to these level and everyone wants a BEV, Tesla could not supply the demand. They have said many times that they have no demand issues, their problems are not being able to supply enough.

So if you want a new car what do you do? From the reviews, the Polestar-2 is about the only BEV that is getting similar love to the Y, but even here all the reviews are pointing out that the Polestar-2 Achilles heal is that there are many fewer charging stations than for the Y. So a prospective new car buyer can either buy something from the available BEV pool, which is still not that large for quick delivery, buy an ice and depending on circumstances potentially miss out on the Benefit in Kind tax treatent, or they can order a BEV and accept the wait.

Folk waiting for something is never great, but the situation is as it is and for many car buyers its all about emotion and impatient waiting for what they want. For fleet buyers its about price and running costs.

Not ideal for buyer or seller, but as Tesla supply grows they look the most likely to have a practical car available whether one has home/business charging or needs to rely on super chargers.

Tesla looks to be in a good spot as far as I can tell and if the rate of growth continues with new factories on brown field sites they are not stuck with having to manage legacy ICE operations and can focus just on BEV.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329740

Postby dealtn » July 30th, 2020, 3:31 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn
The problem being though that 95% isn't then, and that it's the new users that are needed to transform the situation, not the existing ones.

Of course existing ones and their experiences (assuming they are good) are useful in this process, but I am currently struggling to see the BEV/ICE changeover happening at the speed some others see it (and from an investment perspective that TESLA benefit from most of this, and it isn't shared across multiple offerings).


In the UK pre-Covid there were roughly 2 million new registrations per year.

If UK car registrations return to these level and everyone wants a BEV, Tesla could not supply the demand. They have said many times that they have no demand issues, their problems are not being able to supply enough.



Can you point me to some of this "no demand issues" as this is a big reason holding me back from investing in what you consistently refer to as "secular change". From what I see there is a demand issue. Not enough people want (at least yet) to buy this new technology and the "refilling" and range limiting, that (currently) entails.

For TESLA to meet its current valuation (in my opinion) relies very much on statements such as your "If ... and... " quoted above. It's not enough, for me, to be asking whether TESLA will exist in x years time (which it likely will), but what are its profits etc., and hence its valuation. Without confidence on its product demand (and that such demand can't "leak" elsewhere) I am struggling to see the bull case at the current share price.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329746

Postby odysseus2000 » July 30th, 2020, 3:45 pm

dealtn
Can you point me to some of this "no demand issues" as this is a big reason holding me back from investing in what you consistently refer to as "secular change". From what I see there is a demand issue. Not enough people want (at least yet) to buy this new technology and the "refilling" and range limiting, that (currently) entails.

For TESLA to meet its current valuation (in my opinion) relies very much on statements such as your "If ... and... " quoted above. It's not enough, for me, to be asking whether TESLA will exist in x years time (which it likely will), but what are its profits etc., and hence its valuation. Without confidence on its product demand (and that such demand can't "leak" elsewhere) I am struggling to see the bull case at the current share price.


Tesla management have re-iterated that there is no problem with demand on several of the earnings calls, including the last one.

One can argue that they would say that, but making such a statement if it is not true would open the Tesla board to criminal charges.

As I don't have access to internal company documents I can't verify that it is true, but although one can show that registrations have fallen in some European and Scandinavian markets, Tesla continue to increase sales as reported in their various accounts.

I can find no reason not to believe their statement, but of course every investor has to decide for his/her self.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329752

Postby Howard » July 30th, 2020, 3:56 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn
Can you point me to some of this "no demand issues" as this is a big reason holding me back from investing in what you consistently refer to as "secular change". From what I see there is a demand issue. Not enough people want (at least yet) to buy this new technology and the "refilling" and range limiting, that (currently) entails.

For TESLA to meet its current valuation (in my opinion) relies very much on statements such as your "If ... and... " quoted above. It's not enough, for me, to be asking whether TESLA will exist in x years time (which it likely will), but what are its profits etc., and hence its valuation. Without confidence on its product demand (and that such demand can't "leak" elsewhere) I am struggling to see the bull case at the current share price.


Tesla management have re-iterated that there is no problem with demand on several of the earnings calls, including the last one.

One can argue that they would say that, but making such a statement if it is not true would open the Tesla board to criminal charges.

As I don't have access to internal company documents I can't verify that it is true, but although one can show that registrations have fallen in some European and Scandinavian markets, Tesla continue to increase sales as reported in their various accounts.

I can find no reason not to believe their statement, but of course every investor has to decide for his/her self.

Regards,


Ody

Can you quote a source which shows that Tesla are increasing sales? Haven't Tesla sales dropped back recently? True they have increased sales in China but surely recent sales in other markets have dropped.

Hard figures would be appreciated!

regards

Howard


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