Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Has anyone here tried using a touch screen in a car in motion?

I have, it is very tricky. BMW's system with a control dial is much easier.

John

I hired a car a year or two ago with a touchscreen and absolutely hated it. It would carry a lot of weight in my decision-making for a new car.
My Mercedes has a twiddly knob between the front seats which does most of what I need, and no need to take my eyes off the road

--kiloran

But, Tesla H1 sales are up 12%, while Mercedes sales are down 20% for the same period.

These are the important numbers.

Whether one likes or not a particular model is vital for ones own driving, but if lots of other folk like what you don't, then that is what matters for the purposes of investment/trading.

Regards,

[Howard]

Has anyone here tried using a touch screen in a car in motion?

I have, it is very tricky. BMW's system with a control dial is much easier.

John

I hired a car a year or two ago with a touchscreen and absolutely hated it. It would carry a lot of weight in my decision-making for a new car.
My Mercedes has a twiddly knob between the front seats which does most of what I need, and no need to take my eyes off the road

--kiloran

But, Tesla H1 sales are up 12%, while Mercedes sales are down 20% for the same period.

These are the important numbers.

Whether one likes or not a particular model is vital for ones own driving, but if lots of other folk like what you don't, then that is what matters for the purposes of investment/trading.

Regards,

Are you being a bit selective with your figures Ody?

Correct me if I am wrong but I believe Tesla sales worldwide in H2 2019 were 209,000 and in H1 2020 they were 179,250. That's a drop of around 14%.

Understandable because of Covid, but a drop nevertheless?

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Are you being a bit selective with your figures Ody?

Correct me if I am wrong but I believe Tesla sales worldwide in H2 2019 were 209,000 and in H1 2020 they were 179,250. That's a drop of around 14%.

Understandable because of Covid, but a drop nevertheless?

regards

Howard

I was just commenting on h1 2020, which is the most recent data point, & comparing Tesla sales to those of competitors.

Regards,

[dspp]

Never mind TSLA, it seems SpaceX is also making progress following yesterdays Starship #SN5 doing its first 150m test hop.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1HA9LlFNM0

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starsh ... cess-mars/



- dspp

[odysseus2000]

Never mind TSLA, it seems SpaceX is also making progress following yesterdays Starship #SN5 doing its first 150m test hop.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1HA9LlFNM0

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starsh ... cess-mars/



- dspp

At about 37 seconds in the first video, is there indication of a tiny leak as shown by a the flames at the top of the engine?

I have no idea and it could be some kind of deliberate vent, but just thought it was an interesting observation.

Regards,

[dspp]

Never mind TSLA, it seems SpaceX is also making progress following yesterdays Starship #SN5 doing its first 150m test hop.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1HA9LlFNM0

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starsh ... cess-mars/



- dspp

At about 37 seconds in the first video, is there indication of a tiny leak as shown by a the flames at the top of the engine?

I have no idea and it could be some kind of deliberate vent, but just thought it was an interesting observation.

Regards,

Yes, I saw that too, and to my eyes it does not look ideal. regards, dspp

[dspp]

Polestar 2 (aka Volvo XC40-BEV) vs Tesla 3

In some markets the Polestar 2, which is really the BEV built on the Volvo XC40 platform, is getting good traction
https://seekingalpha.com/article/436421 ... -countries
In that article I think there are some relevant comments to the effect that the cited countries are pro-Volvo, but nonetheless it is one of the first BEVs to be genuinely comparable with a 3, so worth paying attention to.

In that vein here is a good, and imho fairly objective & knowledgeable, comparison
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-4875751

regards, dspp

[Howard]

Are you being a bit selective with your figures Ody?

Correct me if I am wrong but I believe Tesla sales worldwide in H2 2019 were 209,000 and in H1 2020 they were 179,250. That's a drop of around 14%.

Understandable because of Covid, but a drop nevertheless?

regards

Howard

I was just commenting on h1 2020, which is the most recent data point, & comparing Tesla sales to those of competitors.

Regards,

Ody

I have checked the figures with Tesla's own investor site.

So dealing with real sales figures and not opinions on financial statements which we know can be misleading and open to all sorts of interpretation.

In H2 2019 Tesla delivered 209,281 cars

In H1 2020 Tesla delivered 179,050 cars

So that is a reduction of 14.4% in sales volume.

We know that all major car manufacturers sales dropped because of the Covid situation.

But let's be frank. Tesla sales went down as well!

Of course Q3 may show a wonderful improvement, but for the moment despite their increase in China, Tesla sales have dropped significantly overall.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Polestar 2 (aka Volvo XC40-BEV) vs Tesla 3

In some markets the Polestar 2, which is really the BEV built on the Volvo XC40 platform, is getting good traction
https://seekingalpha.com/article/436421 ... -countries
In that article I think there are some relevant comments to the effect that the cited countries are pro-Volvo, but nonetheless it is one of the first BEVs to be genuinely comparable with a 3, so worth paying attention to.

In that vein here is a good, and imho fairly objective & knowledgeable, comparison
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-4875751

regards, dspp

Interesting review of the Polestar 2, which contrasts with the review by Fully Charged that I posted a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cwD50F_RWw

Fully charged were a lot more positive and found the only drawback was the lack of charging for the polestar, whereas that the polestar is a Frankenstein Volvo v70 rather than a clean slate BEV comes over in the latest link.

Fully charged were also super impressed by the computer interface, finding none of the issues that the latest review found.

Just shows how one has to try things for oneself and not rely on reviews.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Howard
Ody

I have checked the figures with Tesla's own investor site.

So dealing with real sales figures and not opinions on financial statements which we know can be misleading and open to all sorts of interpretation.

In H2 2019 Tesla delivered 209,281 cars

In H1 2020 Tesla delivered 179,050 cars

So that is a reduction of 14.4% in sales volume.

We know that all major car manufacturers sales dropped because of the Covid situation.

But let's be frank. Tesla sales went down as well!

Of course Q3 may show a wonderful improvement, but for the moment despite their increase in China, Tesla sales have dropped significantly overall.

regards

Howard

Financial statements are legal statements, telling porky pies on them would get any business into very serious trouble and there are many folk who want to do Tesla down and study the statements with a fine tooth comb.

According to the Tesla IR:

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f41f4 ... 23b00475a6

The sales figures I quoted are from January to May YoY as specified in the above report.

Regards,

[dspp]

Of course Q3 may show a wonderful improvement, but for the moment despite their increase in China, Tesla sales have dropped significantly overall.

regards

Howard

No need to check the TSLA website, the data is all on that spreadsheet I posted a snapshot of several days ago. You can add up the periods as you choose, from the repeat below.

Even if Covid-19 were not an issue, then all things being equal we would expect any auto mfg to have a worse H1-2020 than an H2-2019 due to the inclusion of the Q1 in which sales are always slow, and so that is when plant shutdowns are scheduled. However this was not intended to be a "all things equal" H1 for TSLA as (from memory) it should have been ramping prod at Shanghai, and starting to bring further capacity online at Fremont, so in this particular case the H1 should have been better than the preceding H2. However Covid-19 was an issue and so that wrecked those plans.

I don't care about trying to score he said / she said points. My take is that by comparison with other auto mfg TSLA came through the H1 Covid-19 issues reasonably well. Not ideally, but adequately.

What is important for me is the forwards-looking action. Can they keep up the overall growth rates that the price is predicated on. That will require both production capacity increase and sales demand to increase in step with each other, and for product improvements and product introductions to all proceed smoothly. This is not a competition-free world and so TSLA have to execute very well to justify their price.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

For posters here who don't like the quality of Tesla cars, this is Sandy Munroe giving his views on the quality at Tesla:

https://youtu.be/hnNS2uqOZ8w

There are many interesting things beginning at around 1mins 40 seconds, not least his assertions that there is very little similarity between the 3 and the Y.

If this is correct then there is scope for greater cost cutting.

Regards,

[Howard]

The actual sales figures for the German car market in July are just coming out. (See article below.)

July saw a surge of new car purchases. PHEVs continue to sell well. BEVs grew too but their share is still lower. Total registrations were around 315,000 for the month.

It looks as though Tesla sales may have suffered if the statement that their sales dropped by 66% is a guide. Perhaps the German BEV buyers are waiting for the ID3? (Caveat, what the increases/decreases are measured against isn't very clear. I'm guessing it is against registrations in July 2019 ??).

We can expect to see the actual registrations soon.

How brands fared

There was a mixed performance among German brands. Double-digit growth was recorded for the likes of Mini at 35.7%, followed by BMW with 17.4%, and Mercedes at 10.7%. Porsche saw single-digit growth of 2.4%. For other brands, however, there were significant decreases in new-car registrations compared with the same month last year. Smart was down 51.6%, Opel dropped by 45.2%, Ford by 22.5%, Audi by 20.8% and VW by 3.3%. At 19%, the VW brand accounted for the largest brand share of new registrations.

Among the imported brands, increases were recorded among Subaru, up 63.9%, Jeep, up 42.2%, and Mitsubishi, up 33.4%. In contrast, declines were recorded for Tesla at 66.6%, Land Rover 39.9%, Jaguar 38.9%, Alfa Romeo 33.6% and Dacia 32.1%. With a new-car registration share of 7% (up 8.3%), Skoda was once again the largest import brand in the monthly balance.

How types fared

Registrations of petrol-powered vehicles fell by 20.3%, with a share of 49% at 154,352 new vehicles. Some 89,543 cars were equipped with diesel-powered engines. After a decline of 18.6%, their market share was 28.4%.

Compared with July 2019, alternative drivetrains showed growth, in some cases in the three-digit range. The number of electric vehicles (EVs) grew by 181.7% to 16,798 new vehicles, bringing their new-car registration share to 5.3%. A total of 52,488 hybrids generated growth of 143.5%, equalling a share of 16.7%. This included 19,119 plug-in hybrids (PHEV), up 484.7% with a share of 6.1%. With 933 new cars and a registration increase of 13.8%, natural gas-powered vehicles achieved a share of 0.3%. By contrast, 784 liquid gas-powered passenger cars recorded a decline of 4.2% with a share of 0.2%. Average CO2 emissions fell by 8.7% to 144.5 g/km.

https://autovistagroup.com/news-and-ins ... ll-54-july

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Interesting article:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3602693-w ... ent=link-3

If Tencent is forced to sell its holding in Tesla, there will be 5% of the shares needing a new owner.

That could potentially be done off the market in a private transaction, but if they were to be dumped on the market there may be some negative pressure on Tesla equity.

Regards,

[ReformedCharacter]

Meanwhile, SpaceX's Shiny Stainless Steel Starship Prototype Takes Flight For The First Time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG9twP82Acw

Spacex seems to be producing these stages in a matter of a few weeks each, it's certainly a very different approach to rocket development. The Raptor engine which powers these vehicles is the first full-flow staged combustion rocket engine ever flown and is also notable for burning methane instead of the more usual hydrogen for engines of this type.

RC

[Itsallaguess]

Meanwhile, SpaceX's Shiny Stainless Steel Starship Prototype Takes Flight For The First Time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG9twP82Acw

Spacex seems to be producing these stages in a matter of a few weeks each, it's certainly a very different approach to rocket development. The Raptor engine which powers these vehicles is the first full-flow staged combustion rocket engine ever flown and is also notable for burning methane instead of the more usual hydrogen for engines of this type.

Great stuff...

For all the doubts that get aired around some of Musk's other ventures on this thread, it's the SpaceX angle that really, truly excites me.

I want to see us land a man on Mars before I fall off my twig, and if we're going to do that in my lifetime then Musk looks to be the one leading that race, and watching these YouTube videos of his latest SpaceX experiments gives me a thrill that takes me back to my childhood - it really is that that exciting for me to see the progress he's making with such dynamic ambition.

Whilst I might regularly scoff at some of the lofty claims made on this thread about Musk's imminent world-domination, Ody should be aware that there's always a small part of me that secretly hopes all those claims actually do come true, and that he can continue to finance SpaceX and deliver a man safely to Mars in the foreseeable future.

For all the crap that's going on around the world right now, this is the sort of stuff we really do need to see more of...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[dspp]

Some folk have been commenting on how few Teslas were sold in Europe of late. It seems somewhere else got priority

"Tesla is running into some issues in Korea. After the automaker dominated the country’s EV market last quarter, the government is now considering cutting Tesla out by increasing the price threshold for its generous electric car incentives.
As we previously reported, the Korean market was really helpful to Tesla during a difficult second quarter amid the global pandemic. Tesla delivered over 4,000 Model 3 vehicles in Korea during the second quarter, and the automaker reportedly still has a backlog of 4,000 to 5,000 Model 3 vehicles on order. The strong demand is partly due to Tesla buyers having strong EV incentives that significantly reduce the price of the electric cars. However, Tesla had so much demand that it reportedly accounted for almost half of the near $200 million in incentives the country issued during the first half of the year. Now, they are now reportedly thinking about changing the regulations to avoid having Tesla buyers receiving the bulk of it (via the Korea Herald):"

etc https://electrek.co/2020/08/10/tesla-cu ... incentive/

- dspp

[odysseus2000]

Bill Maurer is with out ambiguity: Tesla could face a big pull back or run to a new all time highs:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436708 ... ent=link-0

He has several possible events in his article, some like the proposed wealth tax require Biden to win the Whitehouse and for the competition that he notes is coming has to arrive and sell,...

Regards,

[Howard]

Some folk have been commenting on how few Teslas were sold in Europe of late. It seems somewhere else got priority

"Tesla is running into some issues in Korea. After the automaker dominated the country’s EV market last quarter, the government is now considering cutting Tesla out by increasing the price threshold for its generous electric car incentives.
As we previously reported, the Korean market was really helpful to Tesla during a difficult second quarter amid the global pandemic. Tesla delivered over 4,000 Model 3 vehicles in Korea during the second quarter, and the automaker reportedly still has a backlog of 4,000 to 5,000 Model 3 vehicles on order. The strong demand is partly due to Tesla buyers having strong EV incentives that significantly reduce the price of the electric cars. However, Tesla had so much demand that it reportedly accounted for almost half of the near $200 million in incentives the country issued during the first half of the year. Now, they are now reportedly thinking about changing the regulations to avoid having Tesla buyers receiving the bulk of it (via the Korea Herald):"

etc https://electrek.co/2020/08/10/tesla-cu ... incentive/

- dspp

Tesla's sales in Germany were 203 in July according to the article linked below. It will be interesting to see if they press ahead at full speed with the German factory. It's a long way to ship to Korea from there.

I haven't done a full analysis but it would interesting to see if the sales in Korea in Q2 made up for the severe drops in European markets.

regards

Howard

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/10/tesla ... he-giants/

[dspp]

Some folk have been commenting on how few Teslas were sold in Europe of late. It seems somewhere else got priority

"Tesla is running into some issues in Korea. After the automaker dominated the country’s EV market last quarter, the government is now considering cutting Tesla out by increasing the price threshold for its generous electric car incentives.
As we previously reported, the Korean market was really helpful to Tesla during a difficult second quarter amid the global pandemic. Tesla delivered over 4,000 Model 3 vehicles in Korea during the second quarter, and the automaker reportedly still has a backlog of 4,000 to 5,000 Model 3 vehicles on order. The strong demand is partly due to Tesla buyers having strong EV incentives that significantly reduce the price of the electric cars. However, Tesla had so much demand that it reportedly accounted for almost half of the near $200 million in incentives the country issued during the first half of the year. Now, they are now reportedly thinking about changing the regulations to avoid having Tesla buyers receiving the bulk of it (via the Korea Herald):"

etc https://electrek.co/2020/08/10/tesla-cu ... incentive/

- dspp

Tesla's sales in Germany were 203 in July according to the article linked below. It will be interesting to see if they press ahead at full speed with the German factory. It's a long way to ship to Korea from there.

I haven't done a full analysis but it would interesting to see if the sales in Korea in Q2 made up for the severe drops in European markets.

regards

Howard

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/10/tesla ... he-giants/

Korea on its own won't make up for the European numbers, but in aggregate with other similar markets has obviously been sufficient.

In the USA Tesla are now at ~80% market share of BEV purchases. Globally they are at about ~30%. The Chinese and European markets are where they are most exposed to competition, and as the China factory builds volume so the Tesla market share in BEV seems to be growing. I suspect Europe may be where Tesla lags most until it can get Berlin operating. The extent to which that gives VW or Nissan-Renault space/time to build a long-term defendable position is unclear to me. Both of them are on about ~10% global market share by the way (from memory).

regards, dspp