Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Tesla's sales in Germany were 203 in July according to the article linked below. It will be interesting to see if they press ahead at full speed with the German factory. It's a long way to ship to Korea from there.

I haven't done a full analysis but it would interesting to see if the sales in Korea in Q2 made up for the severe drops in European markets.

regards

Howard

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/10/tesla ... he-giants/

Wolfstreet have missed the big picture here. Sure legacy auto is selling some BEV, but at the same time their main business of selling ICE is collapsing. The tiny number of BEV they are selling compared to the large numbers of ICE that are not selling is murderous to their business. Unless they get government help, or ICE start to sell again in volume they are in serious financial trouble and will have to start austerity measures of cutting ICE production and firing employees soon. If that happens then they will be caught in a cruel feedback loop of removing income from communities and thence reducing auto demand yet more.

Regards,

[dspp]

Tesla's sales in Germany were 203 in July according to the article linked below. It will be interesting to see if they press ahead at full speed with the German factory. It's a long way to ship to Korea from there.

I haven't done a full analysis but it would interesting to see if the sales in Korea in Q2 made up for the severe drops in European markets.

regards

Howard

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/10/tesla ... he-giants/

Wolfstreet have missed the big picture here. Sure legacy auto is selling some BEV, but at the same time their main business of selling ICE is collapsing. The tiny number of BEV they are selling compared to the large numbers of ICE that are not selling is murderous to their business. Unless they get government help, or ICE start to sell again in volume they are in serious financial trouble and will have to start austerity measures of cutting ICE production and firing employees soon. If that happens then they will be caught in a cruel feedback loop of removing income from communities and thence reducing auto demand yet more.

Regards,

The ICE collapse is real, one of the advance tremors is the Mitsubishi withdrawal from Europe.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/indu ... els-europe

or https://www.discoverev.co.uk/ev-news/mi ... rom-europe

"Mitsubishi has surprised the industry by announcing its withdrawal from Europe
Maker of the UK's most popular plug-in hybrid – the Outlander PHEV – Mitsubishi ....... has announced that with immediate effect it is freezing the introduction of any new vehicles into Europe. In short, it's leaving.
The announcement was made completely out of the blue, and ......It means that the brand is sacrificing its place as the seller of the UK's most popular PHEV as well as its electric ambitions for Europe.

So no more Outlander PHEV?
Yep; the UK's (and Europe's) most popular PHEV, of which 50,000 have been sold since 2014 in the UK alone, will no longer be available as a new car here. We were looking forward to the fourth-generation Outlander, which was coming in the not-too-distant future, as well as the introduction of the brand's second PHEV – the Eclipse Cross plug-in hybrid.

This withdrawal also means that any EVs being developed within the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance won't be wearing the three-diamond badge.

Why is Mitsubishi leaving?
There are two main reasons; lack of profitability in Europe, and emissions........
The other side of this is the fact that the brand was going to struggle to meet European emissions targets – despite the popularity of the Outlander PHEV. It would have potentially been facing significant fines, so rather than bring new cars to market, such as its new Eclipse Cross PHEV or a new EV, it's simply going to sell residual stock until the new regulations come in, and Mitsubishi's cars stop being compliant."

Clearly this is more complex because it is part of the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi restructuring, but it is a sign of how tight it is for ICE peoples to cross the PHEV bridge over the chasm to reach the BEV sunlit lands.

regards, dspp

[Howard]

Tesla's sales in Germany were 203 in July according to the article linked below. It will be interesting to see if they press ahead at full speed with the German factory. It's a long way to ship to Korea from there.

I haven't done a full analysis but it would interesting to see if the sales in Korea in Q2 made up for the severe drops in European markets.

regards

Howard

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/10/tesla ... he-giants/

Wolfstreet have missed the big picture here. Sure legacy auto is selling some BEV, but at the same time their main business of selling ICE is collapsing. The tiny number of BEV they are selling compared to the large numbers of ICE that are not selling is murderous to their business. Unless they get government help, or ICE start to sell again in volume they are in serious financial trouble and will have to start austerity measures of cutting ICE production and firing employees soon. If that happens then they will be caught in a cruel feedback loop of removing income from communities and thence reducing auto demand yet more.

Regards,

Wolfstreet's final comment sums up the current situation pretty well in my view.

"Tesla is facing the same situation globally: The giants have woken up and many of them are now offering or will soon be offering models across the spectrum, and Tesla has to get down in the trenches with them and compete on price, service, quality, reliability, and all the other mundane factors that regular consumers – not true believers – demand. And it’s going to get very tough."

Yes it is going to be tough for all manufacturers and perhaps more of a buyer's market during the rest of the year. Over the last six months PHEVs have sold better than forecast in this forum, especially in Germany. Perhaps because they are nice to drive and overcome range anxiety. And in markets like the UK and Germany ICE sales surged back in July suggesting that demand is still there.

All the time we debate this issue (like over the last five years) the slow absolute increase in BEV sales is giving established brands time to catch up with Tesla. Will they make the most of this opportunity? Who knows? The virus situation has set all manufacturers back, but quality and service will be important in deciding the winners.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Howard
Yes it is going to be tough for all manufacturers and perhaps more of a buyer's market during the rest of the year. Over the last six months PHEVs have sold better than forecast in this forum, especially in Germany. Perhaps because they are nice to drive and overcome range anxiety. And in markets like the UK and Germany ICE sales surged back in July suggesting that demand is still there.

When you say ICE sales bounced back, is there data as to whether these are sales or leases?

Regards,

[Howard]

Howard
Yes it is going to be tough for all manufacturers and perhaps more of a buyer's market during the rest of the year. Over the last six months PHEVs have sold better than forecast in this forum, especially in Germany. Perhaps because they are nice to drive and overcome range anxiety. And in markets like the UK and Germany ICE sales surged back in July suggesting that demand is still there.

When you say ICE sales bounced back, is there data as to whether these are sales or leases?

Regards,

I don't know the answer definitively. And it somewhat depends on the definition of leasing. Most cars purchased in the UK are on some sort of finance contract and, of course virtually all company cars are on a lease. I seem to remember finding some statistics on this last year and will have a look to see if I can find some more definite answers.

regards

Howard

[Howard]

Howard
Yes it is going to be tough for all manufacturers and perhaps more of a buyer's market during the rest of the year. Over the last six months PHEVs have sold better than forecast in this forum, especially in Germany. Perhaps because they are nice to drive and overcome range anxiety. And in markets like the UK and Germany ICE sales surged back in July suggesting that demand is still there.

When you say ICE sales bounced back, is there data as to whether these are sales or leases?

Regards,

This article doesn't answer your question directly but it is an interesting comment on the UK leasing situation and the penetration of BEVs. And the authors the Leasing Broker Federation presumably know what they are talking about, given leasing companies huge share of the market.

"ALMOST all – 91.2% – of new cars are now bought using finance options such as leasing agreements.

In fact, the UK is now the third biggest market in the world for vehicle leasing behind China and North America, with leasing volumes hitting $92.45bn."

and

"So far, one of the major barriers holding back EV adoption in the UK has been a lack of public infrastructure. The Department for Transport is ramping up its promotion of the grants on offer to aid the installation of chargepoints on the street, at workplaces, and at home which should boost take up in 2020."

https://www.leasingbrokernews.co.uk/fiv ... -for-2020/

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

This article doesn't answer your question directly but it is an interesting comment on the UK leasing situation and the penetration of BEVs. And the authors the Leasing Broker Federation presumably know what they are talking about, given leasing companies huge share of the market.

"ALMOST all – 91.2% – of new cars are now bought using finance options such as leasing agreements.

In fact, the UK is now the third biggest market in the world for vehicle leasing behind China and North America, with leasing volumes hitting $92.45bn."

and

"So far, one of the major barriers holding back EV adoption in the UK has been a lack of public infrastructure. The Department for Transport is ramping up its promotion of the grants on offer to aid the installation of chargepoints on the street, at workplaces, and at home which should boost take up in 2020."

https://www.leasingbrokernews.co.uk/fiv ... -for-2020/

regards

Howard

Super interesting!

That 91.2% figures looks like a bomb that will go bang with the depreciation of ICE vehicles.

As I understand it, lease agreements allow, the lease company to claw back additional costs if the sale price of the leased vehicle goes down.

Most folk leasing cars assume this clawback will never happen, but if it does there will be an awful commotion.

One can not compare this kind of explosion with that of the mortgage collapse in 2008, but if it happens it could be painful for a lot of folk with leases of ICE cars and will kill ICE leasing for evermore.

Regards,

[Howard]

This article doesn't answer your question directly but it is an interesting comment on the UK leasing situation and the penetration of BEVs. And the authors the Leasing Broker Federation presumably know what they are talking about, given leasing companies huge share of the market.

"ALMOST all – 91.2% – of new cars are now bought using finance options such as leasing agreements.

In fact, the UK is now the third biggest market in the world for vehicle leasing behind China and North America, with leasing volumes hitting $92.45bn."

and

"So far, one of the major barriers holding back EV adoption in the UK has been a lack of public infrastructure. The Department for Transport is ramping up its promotion of the grants on offer to aid the installation of chargepoints on the street, at workplaces, and at home which should boost take up in 2020."

https://www.leasingbrokernews.co.uk/fiv ... -for-2020/

regards

Howard

Super interesting!

That 91.2% figures looks like a bomb that will go bang with the depreciation of ICE vehicles.

As I understand it, lease agreements allow, the lease company to claw back additional costs if the sale price of the leased vehicle goes down.

Most folk leasing cars assume this clawback will never happen, but if it does there will be an awful commotion.

One can not compare this kind of explosion with that of the mortgage collapse in 2008, but if it happens it could be painful for a lot of folk with leases of ICE cars and will kill ICE leasing for evermore.

Regards,

Ody

I don't think this is correct. Certainly there is no such clause in my lease agreements. I have never read of this practice. The whole point of leasing is that the lease company take the car back at the end of the contract. Or in certain cases offer the consumer the option to buy the car.

Leasing companies have been very profitable until recently. Covid may change this somewhat. Q2 was a very bad time for used car sales, but the availability of fewer cars caused an increase in second hand prices over the last two months which must be good news for these companies.

And second hand prices are rising, more so for ICE vehicles than for BEVs according to this survey of around 900,000 vehicles a month, published in July.

"Auto Trader said the impact of supply and demand dynamics in the market are evident in the price movement of internal combustion engines (ICE) and their low emission counterparts.

At £14,789 diesel prices have increased 2.7% year-on-year following on from the 0.9% increase recorded in May - the highest level of growth since February 2019.

Walker said this pales in comparison with the rate of growth in used petrol prices, however, which are up 5.3% year-on-year.

At £12,697, it marks seven months of continued price growth and the highest increase recorded since October 2018. This is the result of high demand versus low supply in the market."

"The average rate of price contraction for pure electric vehicles (EV) has remained relatively flat however, falling approximately 3% each month since February 2020. The average sticker price of a used EV in June was £25,786."



https://www.am-online.com/news/market-i ... data-shows

regards

Howard

[Howard]

I've just found this week's report on used car prices and it is very similar to the report above. Again about 900,000 cars surveyed.

July delivered Auto Trader's largest monthly used car price rise for two years

"Petrol vehicles attracted an average 5.6% (£12,604) price rise last month, marking the highest rate of growth since October 2018.

Diesel recorded a similarly strong performance, with average prices increasing 4.1% (£14,705).

Robinson said: “It is interesting to see the greatest increase in value of diesel cars since September 2014.”

Prices for electric vehicles (EV) have fallen, however.

Auto Trader’s Market Insight analytics, available to all retailers, showed that the demand for pure EVs has increased 75.2% year-on-year, while supply has overtaken it, up 87.7%.

As a result, the average price of an EV in July fell 4.3% to £25,639."

The statistics appear to show that not enough consumers are attracted to the increasing supply of second - hand BEVs. This explains why their leasing costs are high in comparison to ICE vehicles. If this trend continues, ironically leasing companies are going to worried more about having stocks of used BEVs on their hands. Of course the huge government subsidies for new BEVs do not apply to second hand cars.

Wolfstreet's final comment might be proved correct as far as used BEVs are concerned!

https://www.am-online.com/news/used-car ... -two-years

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Negative equity for car loans is a generally a problem if the person leasing needs to sell the car before the end of the lease period. Many companies like to offer a guaranteed resale value (GRV), but if the price of a car depreciates well below the GRV then either the finance company takes a hit or they find ways to sting the person who leased the car.

There are various scenarios on the net about what would happen. Some argue that the leasing company has to take the loss, others that the person who leases the car will take the loss.

If such a scenario happens and the leasing companies have to take the loss they rapidly get into trouble if there is a switch from ICE to BEV.

The argument that it is BEV that are the problem not ICE is imho wishful thinking spurred by ICE makers propaganda.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla split stock by 5:1. For an in-depth analysis:

https://youtu.be/2HWkZW5Pvo4

Shares up about 6% in the after market.

Generally I think this is excellent news for Tesla and for the US markets that have been weak over the last few days.

Regards,

[Howard]

Negative equity for car loans is a generally a problem if the person leasing needs to sell the car before the end of the lease period. Many companies like to offer a guaranteed resale value (GRV), but if the price of a car depreciates well below the GRV then either the finance company takes a hit or they find ways to sting the person who leased the car.

There are various scenarios on the net about what would happen. Some argue that the leasing company has to take the loss, others that the person who leases the car will take the loss.

If such a scenario happens and the leasing companies have to take the loss they rapidly get into trouble if there is a switch from ICE to BEV.

The argument that it is BEV that are the problem not ICE is imho wishful thinking spurred by ICE makers propaganda.

Regards,

The surveys reported on above aren't propaganda, they are reports on the actual price movements of nearly a million used cars a month.

And it's unlikely that Leasing companies are going to worry about the switch to BEVs in the short term as they are such a minute share of the market.

In the UK, at the moment, the evidence suggests that the majority of Tesla Model 3s were bought by individuals, the majority using finance. So if their trade - in prices are dropping along with the BEV segment, it's the consumers, not the Finance Companies who will be taking the losses.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

The surveys reported on above aren't propaganda, they are reports on the actual price movements of nearly a million used cars a month.

And it's unlikely that Leasing companies are going to worry about the switch to BEVs in the short term as they are such a minute share of the market.

In the UK, at the moment, the evidence suggests that the majority of Tesla Model 3s were bought by individuals, the majority using finance. So if their trade - in prices are dropping along with the BEV segment, it's the consumers, not the Finance Companies who will be taking the losses.

regards

Howard

The sales are being driven by the marketing of the auto makers which is a big and expensive undertaking, akin to propaganda.

There is never any concern about bubbles as they inflate, everyone assumes things will carry on and on for ever and then the bubble pops.

ICE sales are imho in a huge bubble that will pop.

Regards,

[Howard]

The surveys reported on above aren't propaganda, they are reports on the actual price movements of nearly a million used cars a month.

And it's unlikely that Leasing companies are going to worry about the switch to BEVs in the short term as they are such a minute share of the market.

In the UK, at the moment, the evidence suggests that the majority of Tesla Model 3s were bought by individuals, the majority using finance. So if their trade - in prices are dropping along with the BEV segment, it's the consumers, not the Finance Companies who will be taking the losses.

regards

Howard

The sales are being driven by the marketing of the auto makers which is a big and expensive undertaking, akin to propaganda.

There is never any concern about bubbles as they inflate, everyone assumes things will carry on and on for ever and then the bubble pops.

ICE sales are imho in a huge bubble that will pop.

Regards,

Yes, you have expressed that view for more than the last 10 years.

If you look at the reports on used car sales in the posts above you will see that the average price of a used ICE car is half that of an average BEV. This is because the initial selling price of ICE cars is around half of BEVs. So consumers in the middle of a Covid crisis are purchasing lots of lower priced cars. There is a big demand for lower priced, economical cars with no range constraints. This doesn't look like a bubble. It looks like common sense.

And, of course, there are negligible Government grants for buying used BEVs, so they do look expensive.

I have no idea where the Tesla share price will go, but can't resist suggesting that a holder of Tesla shares talking about a bubble elsewhere is rather amusing.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

As a student of bubbles there are some general characteristics.

If many people do not see a bubble but folk who study that market do, it pays to pay attention to those who study

If many folk see a bubble and those who study that market do not, it pays to pay attention to those who study.

If we look at 10 years of Tesla, the share price has gone from circa $22 to $1550. Over the same period Ford has gone from $8.97 to $7.11, GM from $25 to $28.

The company has gone from a single factory with a very limited model range that most of the financial world said could not survive against competition to multiple factories in the US, a factory in China and has broken ground for a factory in Germany. They now produce a range of models that have sold very well, with demand not being an issue and all of this with no advertising.

People who study secular growth like Ron Barron and Cathy Wood have put their own investment capital into Tesla and have come out extremely well.

I have also done extremely well out of Tesla, going against the consensus. Maybe I have been lucky. Maybe I was lucky again today when I added as the price shot up.

So investors/traders/readers of this board have a clear choice. They can put me down as someone who has been lucky or someone who has read this stock well and maybe still reads it well.

It is not for me to tell anyone what to do. I simply type what I see to be the case and leave it for others to consider if I am seeing it right.

As things now are I still see ICE in a bubble that will burst and Tesla going a lot higher, but that is me. I do not recommend or advise in anyway for people to follow me.

I would like people to post why I am wrong as I always like to see the opposite view, but for now the bear cases against Tesla look very weak to me.

Regards,

[tjh290633]

As things now are I still see ICE in a bubble that will burst and Tesla going a lot higher, but that is me. I do not recommend or advise in anyway for people to follow me.

I would like people to post why I am wrong as I always like to see the opposite view, but for now the bear cases against Tesla look very weak to me.

From my point of view, I cannot see Electric vehicles becoming more than a niche market. Why? Because for the vast majority of people a car is not a status symbol, nor a statement of wokeness, but a practical means of transport.

I see no reason to spend more than £10k on a car, and no need to replace a car that is 10 or more years old, just to keep up appearances. I have been listening to an on-line talk this afternon, not publicly available, unfortunately, in which a scientist gave an account of average global temperatures for thousands of years and the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, derived from measurements of fossils, etc. He comprehensively debunked the theory that Carbon Dioxide causes global warming, since such measurments indicate that CO2 levels follow temperature maxima, rather than preceding them, were the theory correct, and also the comments about the number of scientists who support the global warming theories. There is evidence to suggest that we are entering a period of solar energy decline, such as has been seen in the various big and little ice ages in the past. There is also evidence that higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere enhances plant growth, so helping to counter poor harvests and periods of famine.

During my working life I have seen concerns about "Peak Oil" repeatedly, and I spent some time looking at the ways in which coal could again become a major energy source for my particular industry, where currently natural gas and oil are the principal energy sources used, with a small amount being provided by electricity. In the transport industry, there will always be a need for vehicles powered by fossil fuels, despite urban transport trending towards electric energy. Rail transport will become more and more dependent on electrical energy, as overhead electrical lines are expanded to their maximum economic level. What does not seem to be a practical method of haulage of goods is battery powered lorries for long distance work. The availability of the elements needed for batteries may well prove to be the limiting factor, as also the distance achievable on a single charge.

In the past I have driven 30,000 miles a year and flown very long distances. Neither would have been possible without fossil fuel energy. Talk about the adequate provision of charging points misses the fact that most people's destinations are unlikely to be convenient to a charging station. Nor is the time available to recharge compatible with a working day in many cases. Agricultural machinery needs to work without interruption for much of the year. You cannot take a combine harvester off the field for several hours during harvesting. Maybe exchangeable batteries packs would be a solution, but that again requires a lot more investment and organisation.

I see the move towards battery powered vehicles as a trendy move which will ultimately reach a limit of practicability. Much more practicable would be the use of mini-nuclear power generators for individual vehicles.

TJH

[dspp]

As things now are I still see ICE in a bubble that will burst and Tesla going a lot higher, but that is me. I do not recommend or advise in anyway for people to follow me.

I would like people to post why I am wrong as I always like to see the opposite view, but for now the bear cases against Tesla look very weak to me.

From my point of view, I cannot see Electric vehicles becoming more than a niche market. Why? Because for the vast majority of people a car is not a status symbol, nor a statement of wokeness, but a practical means of transport.

I see no reason to spend more than £10k on a car, and no need to replace a car that is 10 or more years old, just to keep up appearances. I have been listening to an on-line talk this afternon, not publicly available, unfortunately, in which a scientist gave an account of average global temperatures for thousands of years and the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, derived from measurements of fossils, etc. He comprehensively debunked the theory that Carbon Dioxide causes global warming, since such measurments indicate that CO2 levels follow temperature maxima, rather than preceding them, were the theory correct, and also the comments about the number of scientists who support the global warming theories. There is evidence to suggest that we are entering a period of solar energy decline, such as has been seen in the various big and little ice ages in the past. There is also evidence that higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere enhances plant growth, so helping to counter poor harvests and periods of famine.

During my working life I have seen concerns about "Peak Oil" repeatedly, and I spent some time looking at the ways in which coal could again become a major energy source for my particular industry, where currently natural gas and oil are the principal energy sources used, with a small amount being provided by electricity. In the transport industry, there will always be a need for vehicles powered by fossil fuels, despite urban transport trending towards electric energy. Rail transport will become more and more dependent on electrical energy, as overhead electrical lines are expanded to their maximum economic level. What does not seem to be a practical method of haulage of goods is battery powered lorries for long distance work. The availability of the elements needed for batteries may well prove to be the limiting factor, as also the distance achievable on a single charge.

In the past I have driven 30,000 miles a year and flown very long distances. Neither would have been possible without fossil fuel energy. Talk about the adequate provision of charging points misses the fact that most people's destinations are unlikely to be convenient to a charging station. Nor is the time available to recharge compatible with a working day in many cases. Agricultural machinery needs to work without interruption for much of the year. You cannot take a combine harvester off the field for several hours during harvesting. Maybe exchangeable batteries packs would be a solution, but that again requires a lot more investment and organisation.

I see the move towards battery powered vehicles as a trendy move which will ultimately reach a limit of practicability. Much more practicable would be the use of mini-nuclear power generators for individual vehicles.

TJH

1. Types of climate change denial
- text : https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/stud ... 11_ch3.pdf
- pretties : https://theconversation.com/the-five-co ... ial-122893

2. £10k BEV
- so wait until you can afford a second hand BEV

3. Technology potential
- "In the past I have driven 30,000 miles a year and flown very long distances. Neither would have been possible without fossil fuel energy. " = plain bu11sh1t. It is common place for a BEV to do more than 30,000 miles/year. Flying very long distances on hydrogen or biofuel, or substituting by TGV are entirely possible. All your other examples are complete and utter horlicks.

4. Much more practicable would be the use of mini-nuclear power generators for individual vehicles.
- You have got to be kidding.

- dspp

[tjh290633]

1. Types of climate change denial
- text : https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/stud ... 11_ch3.pdf
- pretties : https://theconversation.com/the-five-co ... ial-122893

2. £10k BEV
- so wait until you can afford a second hand BEV

3. Technology potential
- "In the past I have driven 30,000 miles a year and flown very long distances. Neither would have been possible without fossil fuel energy. " = plain bu11sh1t. It is common place for a BEV to do more than 30,000 miles/year. Flying very long distances on hydrogen or biofuel, or substituting by TGV are entirely possible. All your other examples are complete and utter horlicks.

4. Much more practicable would be the use of mini-nuclear power generators for individual vehicles.
- You have got to be kidding.

- dspp

Typical warmist rubbish, and hope, from the proponents of battery powered vehicles.

Attempts have been made to operate long distance coaches with battery power and have been a dismal failure.

It is fortunate that the uptake of BEVs is so low, because otherwise the country would be covered with car parks dominated by recharging points. You only have to visualise the number of cars using a filling station, taking perhaps 5 minutes to refuel, with the same number taking several hours to recharge. It is just not practicable. For purely local running, charging overnoght at home, a BEV makes sense were it not for the ridiculous price for a shopping trolley.

TJH

[odysseus2000]

Great post TJH

Regarding not needing to have to replace a car I concur and run a 18 year old Volvo. Keeping cars for long periods is great for everyone except the manufacturers who have countered this practice by making cars that have become un-economic to keep on the road after 5 to 6 years. Only a few makes such as Toyota and Volvo still make cars that will last decades without very expensive repairs. To drive home the need to replace cars the manufacturers have moved to making leasing a large fraction of the new car market, where consumers keep a car for about 3 years and there is enough re-sale value for another few years before the repair costs become overwhelming, much larger than getting another car. My local garage owner claims he runs his business predominantly on repairing BMW mini. VW with their Gasoline direct injection motors have created cars that have no where near the practical life expectancy of models just a few years ago.

The science of global warming is complicated. I have studied the various non- co2 warming models liked to solar activity and galactic cosmic rays. One can make a good case that these are important factors and there are several respected astrophysicist who do not believe the co2 warming models. One of their arguments is that one can correlate historic mini-ice ages with changes in solar activity. The problem is that it is very difficult to know who is correct as the predicted effect spread over times that are long by human measures. However, it is hard with the solar and galactic model to explain the climate variability and extremes that we are currently experiencing, although these are well predicted by the co2 models. The positive effects of co2 on plant life are well known. It was not long ago, 50+ years, that there were concerns that the atmosphere didn’t have enough co2 and that this would lead to famine. Now the exhausts from power stations are often fed to green houses so that the plants get extra co2. There are now sufficient co2 levels in the atmosphere to support the biosphere for a long time.

The peak oil hypothesis has failed many times, but unless as some geophysicists argue, oil is being continuously created by biogenic processes, there has to come a time when all the fossils fuels are exhausted with certain geopolitical instability.

The argument over availability of charging is imho a weak one as there seems no limit to how many charging stations that can be built and various methods of wireless charging are also ongoing and although many people only have on street parking it should be possible to install as many charging points as are needed. The effort is nothing like that which was needed to install electrical power into all UK homes.

Yes, there are currently some applications that will always need fossil fuels, such as combine harvester operating 24-7 in the US, Canadian, Ukraine… fields and for now there is no alternative to fossil fuels for long plane or rocket flights.

Small scale nuclear generators are back in vogue. Princess Anne mentioned them in the recent Country Life which she edited in celebration of her birthday. I am 100% certain these will never happen not because they are not practical, but because they are too easily adapted into weapons by terrorists. There is currently no surround material that can not be broken into. Plastics can in general be burned or chiselled, metals can be cut with plasma, a now low cost technology in most work shops including my own.

In addition to these points there are a few others that I believe make it certain that BEV will replace ICE.

First: ICE produce local pollution both in the refining and in the use and politicians want to appear as clean as possible. The pollutions include the volatile gases from petrol, the brake dust from non-regenerative breaking used on ICE and particulate emission from the tail pipes. We already have bans on ICE car from major cities for these troubles and that will continue and accelerate

Second: BEV vehicle’s are faster, quieter and simpler than ICE

Third BEV offer a low cost solution to the over abundance of renewable power, via the grid to car and back to grid technologies, offering business a low cost route into a much better and more reliable electrical grid.

Fourth. The practical experience of all BEV owners I have met is that they love the technology and won’t go back to ICE. I am sure some folk will not like BEV, but the overwhelming opinion I have encountered is ultra positive towards BEV and a disbelief that folk still buy the old ICE technology.

Regards,

[dspp]

Tesla Europe sales
- https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sa ... ore-144061

OTA software update commentary
- https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-over-th ... gacy-auto/

- dspp