odysseus2000 wrote:Interesting comment re electric cars etc by former Ford CEO:
https://youtu.be/0pD3RCcdQ2c
Regards,
So, this is one of the bozos you think has accelerated legacy auto toward a cliff and doomed them to extinction?
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odysseus2000 wrote:Interesting comment re electric cars etc by former Ford CEO:
https://youtu.be/0pD3RCcdQ2c
Regards,
BobbyD wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:Interesting comment re electric cars etc by former Ford CEO:
https://youtu.be/0pD3RCcdQ2c
Regards,
So, this is one of the bozos you think has accelerated legacy auto toward a cliff and doomed them to extinction?
odysseus2000 wrote:Howard wrote:I hesitate to post a link to this article given that this successful thread is coming up to 200 pages
Tesla lost market share in the USA in 2019. It lost share to pretty well every premium brand.
Based on the broadly-accepted Insideevs estimates for Tesla’s U.S. unit sales, it grew 0.3% in 2019, to 192,250 units from 191,687 in 2018.
Several other luxury/premium car brands grew faster in the U.S. in 2019, including BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, Audi, Jaguar, Land Rover, Lincoln and Cadillac.
They all grew faster than Tesla both as measured in absolute units and as measured as a percentage.
In other words, even before we adjust for average selling prices - let alone profitability - Tesla lost market share to these competitors in the U.S. market in 2019.
regards
Howard
https://seekingalpha.com/article/431806 ... king_alpha
So a question for you.
Given your analysis of automotive sales, why is Tesla's share price still near all time highs?
Regards,
odysseus2000 wrote:BobbyD wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:Interesting comment re electric cars etc by former Ford CEO:
https://youtu.be/0pD3RCcdQ2c
Regards,
So, this is one of the bozos you think has accelerated legacy auto toward a cliff and doomed them to extinction?
Ha Ha
There is a whole lot of difference between a CEO and a ex-CEO who can say what ever he wants without having anyone able to fire him and take away his pension etc.
I thought he made some good points, but how ever I look at I see big troubles for Ford and most other legacy.
Regards,
Howard wrote:Tesla's share price is a law unto itself, and I wouldn't presume to explain the factors which drive it.
BobbyD wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:BobbyD wrote:
So, this is one of the bozos you think has accelerated legacy auto toward a cliff and doomed them to extinction?
Ha Ha
There is a whole lot of difference between a CEO and a ex-CEO who can say what ever he wants without having anyone able to fire him and take away his pension etc.
I thought he made some good points, but how ever I look at I see big troubles for Ford and most other legacy.
Regards,
So he was an incompetent buffoon, but he is now a sage and seer?
odysseus2000 wrote:Interesting comment re electric cars etc by former Ford CEO:
https://youtu.be/0pD3RCcdQ2c
Regards,
BobbyD wrote:Howard wrote:Tesla's share price is a law unto itself, and I wouldn't presume to explain the factors which drive it.
Was the share price correct as an absolute guide to Tesla's value yesterday, or the day before it's 7% rise, or 6 months ago before it's recent surge? Or is it at all possible that share prices are the result of a trading mechanism whose outcome may have some, little, or no predictive power over the future returns the company will provide? You'd need to be a psychologist not an analyst to explain them, and you'd probably get distracted by interesting things like herd behaviour, the cause of equity bubbles, and myriad other irrationalities to which the human brain is prone. Look at the share price is a ridiculous argument, and it is a very strange argument for somebody so proud of their superior trading skills to make to us humble investors.
odysseus2000 wrote:BobbyD wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:
Ha Ha
There is a whole lot of difference between a CEO and a ex-CEO who can say what ever he wants without having anyone able to fire him and take away his pension etc.
I thought he made some good points, but how ever I look at I see big troubles for Ford and most other legacy.
Regards,
So he was an incompetent buffoon, but he is now a sage and seer?
Maybe you should take a course on corporate ego and how they effect employees.
Regards,
odysseus2000 wrote:President Trump on Tesla:
https://twitter.com/rkraus19/status/121 ... 17633?s=20
Regards,
redsturgeon wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:President Trump on Tesla:
https://twitter.com/rkraus19/status/121 ... 17633?s=20
Regards,
I feel it's a bit like Leonardo Da Vinci getting the thumbs up from an Orangutang.
John
Meanwhile, an analysis released last week by the respected consultancy Wood Mackenzie projects that VW will reach a cumulative 14 million electric vehicles by 2028, which will make it the world’s largest maker of EVs by the end of the decade.
That projection is far below VW’s own electric-vehicle goals, which last year were revised upward from 22 million to 28 million (and 70 different EVs) by 2028—across the full Volkswagen Group, with more than half of them in China.
...Wood Mackenzie says that to sell 22 million EVs by 2028, VW would need to take a 53% share of the global EV market and 57% of all EV battery production—”something that would prove to be extremely challenging,” the firm notes.
The estimate of 14 million EVs would equate to 27% of global EVs and 30% of the world’s EV battery supply, according to the firm.
odysseus2000 wrote:Hi Howard,
The difference between us is that I consider not only the fundamentals of the company as measured in sales etc, but also the stock and these are two related but weakly coupled variables.
Sales etc are backward looking while the stock is forward looking and is influenced by many factors outside of the company.
We now have the ingredients for a strong bull market in US equities: Strong business friendly President, ongoing collapse of the anti growth EU and an end to its military ambitions, a strong and growing China now taking its seat at the table of advanced and powerful nations, secular growth in major components of the industrial economy and in Musk a visionary who has ignited the dream of human exploration towards its manifest destiny of colonising the solar system. To get all of these things together is a remarkably powerful force that although now strong and vibrant will as in all things human eventually lose its potency, but before then there is a tremendous opportunity for great wealth. We saw such a time begin in the unlikely environment of post war Britain when we went from bombed out and bankrupt in 1945 to the swinging 60’s in 15 years. In the early 20th century we had the great rise of the motor car and in the 60’s we had the consolidation of US power in the Apollo program. In all of these events there were great rises in the equity markets and very powerful individual stocks.
These times, which come but rarely in history, need vehicles to carry the human emotion forwards and one of those vehicles is the potential of Tesla stock. The current price of Tesla stock reflects the hopes and aspirations of people who believe in a better future both in performance, comfort and convenience and in doing so in a cleaner and more environmentally friendly way. In Tesla they have a company that has made the BEV the future, not like GM who had the future with their own EV1 but then strangled their own baby. Moreover with Tesla there is far more than just the BEV with storage, solar, better batteries and robotic driving as known possibilities but with Musk there is also, as Munroe recently noted, genius and that can be a tide of extraordinary power that lifts very many boats in ways that are currently unknown to most of humanity.
It is impossible to predict equity price from company fundamentals, one can certainly know when a stock is price cheaply compared to its earnings, but even then we do not know if the price can get cheaper or how long it will take for the market to correct the price to a more sensible correlation with the business. For business in strong growth it is very much more difficult and for a stock like Tesla which has grown to near cult status the difficulties are compounded many times. Attempts to value high growth stocks are always pointless if measured on p/e, better on peg valuations but their one depends upon forecasts which can be wrong. Since these two valuation methods, at least to me, can’t be used then I have instead to rely on watching the price and using it to tell me which way is the most probable. This type of approach is now well developed but requires, imho, some serious training and it is not something i would suggest that anyone does without that training, but people will and some will make great fortunes, others will lose a lot of money and that applies to both long and short.
So in one sentence:
The price of Tesla stock is at all times highs because there are more buyers than sellers.
My comments give the reasons why i believe this is happening.
Regards,
PS I value all opinions as they help me formulate my ideas: As iron sharpens iron, so one person sharpens another.
odysseus2000 wrote:Mercedes forced to cut output estimates due to battery shortage:
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1220 ... 63587?s=20
odysseus2000 wrote:Intéresting graphic:
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/12 ... 91808?s=21
Regards,
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