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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#326290

Postby odysseus2000 » July 15th, 2020, 11:21 am

Howard
I'm not sure you are right about the "Fleet Buyers". They may be influencers but probably not decision makers. I'm now retired, but from my previous experience someone entitled to a company car will be the ultimate decision-maker. And, especially if the initial price of the car is around £50k or more, the lucky senior executive will definitely choose which car he or she will drive. The fleet buyer will advise on running costs and the company will set the leasing cost limits for each grade of executive but the end user will make the choice. Yes, the company may have a BEV or PHEV only policy but won't dictate the brand. The business cost of leasing a Model 3 Long Range will be over £400 a month (much cheaper than the personal lease cost) but that puts it in a pricey bracket. I doubt if any company will pay this for a sales rep!


I thought the calculations that were done on this board some time ago comparing leasing of a ICE to BEV of similar status were similar when all factors were taken into account and better for the BEV if the vehicle was to be used in a city with emission taxes and/or refusal of entry for ICE.

Perhaps we need to re-do that calculation or maybe someone knows where it is on the thread.

Some UK police force are buying Nissan BEV for a stealth use to catch poachers:

https://thedriven.io/2020/05/12/sneaky- ... cher-hunt/

This article (scroll down) compares the cost of a Tesla police car to a Ford ICE:

https://mashable.com/article/tesla-mode ... urope=true

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326292

Postby odysseus2000 » July 15th, 2020, 11:26 am

Tesla China car registrations in june up from 11.5k in May to 15.5k in June:

https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1 ... 91424?s=20

Regards,
Last edited by odysseus2000 on July 15th, 2020, 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#326293

Postby odysseus2000 » July 15th, 2020, 11:32 am

UFO on a stick, starlink disc:

https://twitter.com/flcnhvy/status/1283 ... 24975?s=20

Further in thread Musk says these self align, no engineer required, just plug in with Power over Ethernet (PoE), disc looking at the sky and it use its motors to point where it needs to.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326424

Postby odysseus2000 » July 15th, 2020, 8:10 pm

This is imho an example of a really bad analyst:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435859 ... ent=link-0

He argues that new cars are a bad investment, I agree, but most folk want a new car and many are happy to lease.

He argues Tesla is not a tech company as each increment of growth does not come for negligible capex as folk have to buy a Tesla. He does not consider upgrades to software (self driving, movie setc...) as a cash cow, he does not consider virtual power stations with Tesla skimming of a little all the time as cash adding at low cost, he does not consider super charger revenue as money for no additional costs, he does not consider Fiat et al paying Tesla so that they can keep making ice cars as cash for no effort, he doesn't consider licensing of battery tech... I could go on

He argues Tesla is oner valued and then says if they keep executing the valuation is justified.

Insufficient research, poor thinking,... altogether not good enough.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326497

Postby redsturgeon » July 16th, 2020, 8:51 am

odysseus2000 wrote:This is imho an example of a really bad analyst:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435859 ... ent=link-0

He argues that new cars are a bad investment, I agree, but most folk want a new car and many are happy to lease.

He argues Tesla is not a tech company as each increment of growth does not come for negligible capex as folk have to buy a Tesla. He does not consider upgrades to software (self driving, movie setc...) as a cash cow, he does not consider virtual power stations with Tesla skimming of a little all the time as cash adding at low cost, he does not consider super charger revenue as money for no additional costs, he does not consider Fiat et al paying Tesla so that they can keep making ice cars as cash for no effort, he doesn't consider licensing of battery tech... I could go on

He argues Tesla is oner valued and then says if they keep executing the valuation is justified.

Insufficient research, poor thinking,... altogether not good enough.

Regards,


I don't think many people view cars as an investment as such. Getting in a brand new car is quite good fun though. I leased my VW Golf for the last two years at £250 per year. During that time I just needed to put petrol in and insure it, it needed nothing else. I did nearly 20,000 trouble free miles in it and had no trips to the garage for repair, maintenance or servicing to consider. Out of interest I checked the second hand value on WBACDC and it was over £10K less then the purchase price, the lease cost me under £7K.

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326514

Postby dealtn » July 16th, 2020, 9:43 am

redsturgeon wrote: I leased my VW Golf for the last two years at £250 per year.


per month surely?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326522

Postby odysseus2000 » July 16th, 2020, 9:58 am

redsturgeon
I don't think many people view cars as an investment as such. Getting in a brand new car is quite good fun though. I leased my VW Golf for the last two years at £250 per year. During that time I just needed to put petrol in and insure it, it needed nothing else. I did nearly 20,000 trouble free miles in it and had no trips to the garage for repair, maintenance or servicing to consider. Out of interest I checked the second hand value on WBACDC and it was over £10K less then the purchase price, the lease cost me under £7K.

John


Yes, that is exactly my point.

In our prosperous times there are enough folk who are happy to pay £10/day or more to have no hassle transport and for some people this is vital to their job.

It would break my heart to think of £10 each day vanishing, but almost no body thinks like I do, which is a good thing for the economy, jobs, progress and clean air.

Although I have no interest in leasing a car I base my investment decisions not on what I do but on what I see many people doing which is how analysts should think.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326524

Postby Howard » July 16th, 2020, 10:00 am

dealtn wrote:
redsturgeon wrote: I leased my VW Golf for the last two years at £250 per year.


per month surely?


Just go along with Redsturgeon.

He's leased a matchbox Golf. :)

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326528

Postby odysseus2000 » July 16th, 2020, 10:03 am

Block the founder of short selling outfit, Muddy Waters advises folk not to short Tesla, which in the perverse way of many on wall street will likely give them a craving just to do that:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/carso ... S8ldZZB2Cf

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326552

Postby redsturgeon » July 16th, 2020, 11:02 am

Yes per month. :oops:

And I would hope for a Corgi rather than a matchbox for £250 a year!

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326697

Postby odysseus2000 » July 16th, 2020, 10:02 pm

This is another poorly thought out article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435886 ... ent=link-0

The guy argues many things, including that:

to a temporary complete economic collapse, which even bailouts can no longer avert.

He says Tesla Gm has been falling for years, and shows a chart with a minimum about 2 years ago and never wonders if Tesla are making cars for less now that they were. Munroe has argued that the Y is the best BEV about and that Tesla have reduced manufacturing costs compared to the 3, but he hasn't looked at the 3 for a few years now.

He notes that there are no new potential positives to come, ignoring battery day and possible developments in self driving, Cyber truck launch,...

He just sees a stock he doesn't understand and hunts around for reasons. It is possible to write a good bearish piece on Tesla, but he fails to do enough research for such a thesis. I am hopeful that if enough bears think like him that they will start to get short again.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326698

Postby odysseus2000 » July 16th, 2020, 10:04 pm

Meanwhile Credit suisse has a grey sky target of $800, blue sky of $2300 and a mean of $1400:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3592079-t ... ent=link-3

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326757

Postby odysseus2000 » July 17th, 2020, 8:32 am

Interesting video covering several aspects of Tesla including price cuts on solar roofs. The calculation presented is similar to what i did a short while back, although the prices are in $, what I gave in £, showing that the panels are cheaper in the US, but otherwise the pay back period of around 6 years, system guaranteed life of 25 years giving a compound return of 4% ish, significantly better than most bank accounts. Lots of other useful stuff & either a incorrect figure or Tesla are cranking out batteries far faster than previously believed, but likely just a mistake. Search interest on y spiked in US after price cut.

https://youtu.be/BNgLhShBA4g

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326791

Postby odysseus2000 » July 17th, 2020, 10:09 am

Mercedes sins over Diesel emissions leads to claims for recompense of £10k to entire cost of vehicle for purchasers or leasers of vehicles from 2007 to 2018:

https://mercedesclaimlawyers.com/?gclid ... gLUgfD_BwE

If this goes anything like VW, Mercedes are going to get pained in the balance sheet.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#327695

Postby dspp » July 21st, 2020, 12:55 pm

Nissan finally adopts liquid cooling, prismatics, and CCS, from .... 2021 (I think that must be about 15-years after Tesla showed the way)

"Nissan finally made the jump from the Leaf’s active air-cooled system to a liquid-cooled technical design. In a roundtable media event before the unveiling, Makoto Fukada, the Ariya’s chief product specialist, suggested that the decision was primarily about speeding up the charging times for road trips. Fukada said:

The customer feedback from Leaf users was about how long it takes to go 500 to 800 kilometers (300 to 500 miles), including charging time. That’s the metric.

In simulation, we can go 800 kilometers in 8 hours, including a charging. This is the kind of performance we targeted and why we designed this new EV platform.

In other words, the single pit stop on a 500-mile trip needs to be fast and the battery needs to stay cool. The company will offer the North American and European versions of the Ariya with 130-kilowatt DC quick charging — using the CCS standard. Nissan said it could add 175 miles of driving range in 30 minutes. The battery cells, using an NMC chemistry, will come from CATL. Nissan also moved away from the Leaf’s pouch cell packaging to prismatic canned cells.

The move to CCS from Nissan will be a big blow to the Chademo standard in the US and Europe."


https://electrek.co/2020/07/15/nissan-u ... d-battery/

oh, but,

"Unfortunately, it doesn’t go on sale until well into 2021."

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#327697

Postby odysseus2000 » July 21st, 2020, 1:05 pm

This video is an exceptional dive into Tesla accounts, as to what may happen in the report this week. Anyone who like to analyse the three components of the accounts with a fine tooth comb will likely enjoy this:

https://youtu.be/N5im2bPwrUM

It is also a good watch for anyone who doubts how strong a business Tesla has become & the potential going forwards.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#327699

Postby odysseus2000 » July 21st, 2020, 1:11 pm

dspp wrote:Nissan finally adopts liquid cooling, prismatics, and CCS, from .... 2021 (I think that must be about 15-years after Tesla showed the way)

"Nissan finally made the jump from the Leaf’s active air-cooled system to a liquid-cooled technical design. In a roundtable media event before the unveiling, Makoto Fukada, the Ariya’s chief product specialist, suggested that the decision was primarily about speeding up the charging times for road trips. Fukada said:

The customer feedback from Leaf users was about how long it takes to go 500 to 800 kilometers (300 to 500 miles), including charging time. That’s the metric.

In simulation, we can go 800 kilometers in 8 hours, including a charging. This is the kind of performance we targeted and why we designed this new EV platform.

In other words, the single pit stop on a 500-mile trip needs to be fast and the battery needs to stay cool. The company will offer the North American and European versions of the Ariya with 130-kilowatt DC quick charging — using the CCS standard. Nissan said it could add 175 miles of driving range in 30 minutes. The battery cells, using an NMC chemistry, will come from CATL. Nissan also moved away from the Leaf’s pouch cell packaging to prismatic canned cells.

The move to CCS from Nissan will be a big blow to the Chademo standard in the US and Europe."


https://electrek.co/2020/07/15/nissan-u ... d-battery/

oh, but,

"Unfortunately, it doesn’t go on sale until well into 2021."

- dspp


This looks to be a sea change in how Nissan view BEV, as though either management has some new insightful people or has finally come to realise offering something "sub-state of the art" will lead to rapid drops in consumers buying their products.

It is a great moment for making the planet cleaner & showing how far Tesla are ahead. Although Nissa's offering is not available till 2021 they are now on a much better course, not something that is common in legacy makers.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#327794

Postby odysseus2000 » July 21st, 2020, 9:55 pm

Montana skeptic is up to his usual standard:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435972 ... ent=link-0

There are some aspects to what he writes that are potentially red flags for Tesla, such as current European sales, but his analysis does not include any aspects of what BEV are doing to legacy ICE and he assumes that legacy ice can churn out a lot of competitive BEV and at the same time continue to sell large numbers of ICE cars and at the same time not be troubled by c19 and secure all the batteries they need.

He also likes to paint Tesla as a scam based on what he considers is financial engineering of the accounts, while at at the same time not taking such analysis to the thieving and penalties at VW and now Mercedes, as though legacy is squeaky clean.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#327904

Postby dspp » July 22nd, 2020, 11:26 am

There is a load of speculation about the planned production capacity for the fully-built-out Giga Berlin, which is relevant to the capacities of all the other fabs as well.

Some German sources are indicating that it is actually intended to be 2m vehicles/yr. (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafac ... ear-media/)

If so that suggests that the main building being built right now will take 1 x 'Y' line @250k/yr and 1 x '3' line @ 250k/yr, so 500k/building. So with all four buildings fully fitted that would in due course be 2m/yr.

I appreciate that is at the larger end of a typical auto plant, but is within the bounds of believable. The Hyundai Ulsan plant is 1.6mln units/yr (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyundai_Motor_Company)

QUESTION : to what extent is that 2m/yr fully-built out number, and the 500k/yr for the building under construction, verifiable ?

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#327925

Postby redsturgeon » July 22nd, 2020, 12:40 pm

I'm not seeing too much evidence that there is an unmet demand for 2m Teslas per year in Europe at the moment.

John


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