Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Tesla equity currently up 9% at $481.36, all time high was $502.49.

Regards,

[Howard]

Now that we are approaching the latest time for departure from the USA, it is apparent that seven ships will be carrying Model 3s to Europe in Q4. Two from China and five from California.

The capacity of the ships in total is in excess of 40,000 cars. In addition there have been shipments of S and X models.

The first ship arrived in Europe and then the UK a few days ago and currently the seventh should be arriving mid/late December.

So Tesla are expecting bumper sales in European markets in November and December.

regards

Howard

I have just read an informal report that yet one more ship for Europe may load in California - Glovis Captain. That makes eight! And apparently there is still just time for another!

So that suggests more than 45,000 cars are on their way to European customers for Nov/Dec. The early ones are on the road on car transporters and most of the rest on the high seas. Zeebrugge is reputed to be very efficient at car movements. It is going to be busy in December!

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Boris has set out his 10 point plan for a green future:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-10-po ... is-johnson

Looks total rhetoric to me.

The UK has minimal capabilities in the areas he mentions and no obvious private sector business interested in creating one.

It is possible that he has some big announcements hidden up his sleeves but as things now stand there is no mechanism for him to practically create this new industrial resolution that is not only about Tesla type products but also hydrogen and nuclear, both of which to me are industries in secular decline, the former always so since it never got going and the latter terminated because it was too expensive.

Am I missing something, is this a plan with some substance that I am missing?

Regards,

[dspp]

Boris has set out his 10 point plan for a green future. Am I missing something, is this a plan with some substance that I am missing?

Regards,

No, there is no substance. At least none that has any relationship that that Con called Johnson.

regards, dspp

[vrdiver]

Boris has set out his 10 point plan for a green future. Am I missing something, is this a plan with some substance that I am missing?

No, there is no substance.

Weren't Rolls Royce asking for a few hundred £m to kick off a project to make small nuclear power plants?

Rolls-Royce plans 16 mini-nuclear plants for UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54703204

Other points, like charging infrastructure etc. could he be looking to bring in companies like Tesla with appropriate subsidies dressed up as government backed initiatives? I would tend to agree with both of your initial views, but I'm suspicious that with so much money flowing out of the treasury due to Covid and Brexit, he may be thinking that a couple of billion here and there won't do any more damage to the Conservative reputation for fiduciary competence, whilst at the same time it's a great opportunity to reward favoured business associates?

VRD

[BobbyD]

Boris has set out his 10 point plan for a green future. Am I missing something, is this a plan with some substance that I am missing?

Regards,

No, there is no substance. At least none that has any relationship that that Con called Johnson.

regards, dspp

Fun time again...

Last time I questioned the sense in taking Boris's promises of a green nirvana seriously in this thread, listing a series of examples where his word had been insincerely given to back up my argument that Ody's trust was touching but misplaced the post was removed with this response...

Moderator Message:
Please keep politics out of this thread.

[odysseus2000]

Other points, like charging infrastructure etc. could he be looking to bring in companies like Tesla with appropriate subsidies dressed up as government backed initiatives? I would tend to agree with both of your initial views, but I'm suspicious that with so much money flowing out of the treasury due to Covid and Brexit, he may be thinking that a couple of billion here and there won't do any more damage to the Conservative reputation for fiduciary competence, whilst at the same time it's a great opportunity to reward favoured business associates?

VRD

The one area of substance in the ten points proposed by the PM, is the many wind turbines in the seas around the UK. Calling the UK the Saudi Arabia of wind generated electricity is a bit hyperbolic, but there are a lot of turbines and a lot of electricity is being generated.

To transition to an economy powered by wind requires either a lot of battery storage or, and less ideal in my view, a lot of hydrogen generation.

If the PM's speech is not just rhetoric what aces might he have waiting up his sleeves? He has mentioned Birmingham as a source for batteries. As far as I understand the battery business he would have to either dump a significant amount of money to potentially build a UK battery business from scratch which seems unlikely. There are various University projects, but they are all small scale and Universities do not have the resources to make them commercial.

The other more realistic option would be to offer sufficient sweetness to bring in either a Japanese, Korean, Chinese or Tesla here as a battery maker. There have been discussions between Musk and the government, but these did not seem to get anywhere. It may be that nothing will happen until, if, the UK does leave the EU and the UK can then offer attractive sweetness to bring one or more of the existing battery makers here.

There were times when a PM making policy statements could be believed, but recently there have been many statements by UK PM, particularly connected to Brexit, that have proved to be of no substance.

The one advantage that the PM does have is that his proposals were almost universally ridiculed so that if he does have an ace or two of substance up his sleeves he will have wrong footed all his opponents. Paying for Covid also potentially reduces his potential to offer sweetners, although one could imagine that if he was to use his earlier and less recently mentioned ideas of free ports he might be able to get a battery maker here without much cash down.

Another option is that the PM is, given the already heavy covid spend as mentioned by VRD, about to announce some kind of new deal based around a complete overall of the grid structure, something like, although larger, the effort that went into converting the UK from Town to Natural gas, but in this case being lots of electrically wires and charging points. How many jobs this would make is unclear to me as a lot of the heavy installation is skilled and machine dependent, but it might be dressed as making an inroad in to youth unemployment.

Dunno. Feel like I am grasping at straws, but if the PM is to try and make his 10 point plan his major policy initiative for the remainder of this parliament after an EU exit, he will have to do a lot of substantive stuff asap. If this does happen there ought to be opportunities for investors.

Regards,

[dspp]

BMW unveils electric van concept

https://electrek.co/2020/11/17/bmw-mini ... us-future/

Gotta laugh at some of the comments,

"necessity for faux horse & buggy look when trying to attract Amish girls"

"Nice to see liberated Amish women being taken into account though."

"The future is frumpy modest women in a desolate neighborhood?"

More seriously has anyone else been reading the rumours that Berkshire have a 25m share stake in TSLA that they got permission to blackout for fear of moving the market. Which is coming to light just as TSLA goes into S&P500. Misleading rumour or fun fact ?

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

More seriously has anyone else been reading the rumours that Berkshire have a 25m share stake in TSLA that they got permission to blackout for fear of moving the market. Which is coming to light just as TSLA goes into S&P500. Misleading rumour or fun fact ?

regards, dspp

Interesting idea.

Buffett has abandoned his no tech investment thesis, after having been burned in IBM, by going into Apple and a Tesla stake would make sense in terms of his stated business model of buying enterprises with moats.

Regards,

[Howard]

Given the large number of Teslas coming to the UK over the next two months and knowing that most of them are likely to be leased, out of interest, I had a look at leasing costs compared with a BMW 3 Series.

Looking at Tesla forums, Select Leasing is one of the companies that a lot of future Tesla drivers are leasing from. So I used their site.

As a private individual the comparable costs for a three year rental are:

Tesla Model 3 Saloon Standard Plus 4dr Auto, 10,000 miles a year. £510 per month 6 + 35 months. With metallic paint it’s £533 per month.
Maintenance is £48.71 per month extra. £1,754 over 3 years

BMW 320i M Sport 4dr Step Auto [2021 factory order], 10,000 miles a year £358 per month 6+ 35 months. With metallic paint it’s £352 per month
Maintenance is £30.59 per month extra. £1,101 over 3 years

One can draw a couple of conclusions from the above quotes:

Leasing companies are experts at predicting maintenance costs from their previous experience and these quotes suggest that a Tesla Model 3 will be more expensive to maintain than a BMW 320i.

Residual values of the BMW 320i must be holding up well to allow such a competitive price to be quoted.

Obviously these prices are for a personal lease. I haven’t attempted to calculate the comparable costs for a company car and the BIK subsidies which will favour the Tesla.

But for a private individual, the cost difference is pretty substantial.

Links to the two quotes are below. It's easy to change the assumptions.

regards

Howard

https://www.selectcarleasing.co.uk/car- ... s-4dr-auto

https://www.selectcarleasing.co.uk/car- ... -step-auto

[dspp]

Given the large number of Teslas coming to the UK over the next two months and knowing that most of them are likely to be leased, out of interest, I had a look at leasing costs compared with a BMW 3 Series.

Looking at Tesla forums, Select Leasing is one of the companies that a lot of future Tesla drivers are leasing from. So I used their site.

As a private individual the comparable costs for a three year rental are:

Tesla Model 3 Saloon Standard Plus 4dr Auto, 10,000 miles a year. £510 per month 6 + 35 months. With metallic paint it’s £533 per month.
Maintenance is £48.71 per month extra. £1,754 over 3 years

BMW 320i M Sport 4dr Step Auto [2021 factory order], 10,000 miles a year £358 per month 6+ 35 months. With metallic paint it’s £352 per month
Maintenance is £30.59 per month extra. £1,101 over 3 years

One can draw a couple of conclusions from the above quotes:

Leasing companies are experts at predicting maintenance costs from their previous experience and these quotes suggest that a Tesla Model 3 will be more expensive to maintain than a BMW 320i.

Residual values of the BMW 320i must be holding up well to allow such a competitive price to be quoted.

Obviously these prices are for a personal lease. I haven’t attempted to calculate the comparable costs for a company car and the BIK subsidies which will favour the Tesla.

But for a private individual, the cost difference is pretty substantial.

Links to the two quotes are below. It's easy to change the assumptions.

regards

Howard

https://www.selectcarleasing.co.uk/car- ... s-4dr-auto

https://www.selectcarleasing.co.uk/car- ... -step-auto

Howard,
Thanks, interesting,

We've done this exercise before, which was I guess at a time ??? when Tesla book price was not as favourable, but still the Tesla came out ahead on a fully costed basis. I think you are missing the following:
1) Leasing co's may be overestimating Tesla maintenance due to low knowledge base; (MAYBE)
2) Leasing co's may be forwards looking and anticipating future Tesla price reductions (Berlin factory, tariffs ....) hence lowered Tesla resale value; (MAYBE)
3) this calc does not include fuel vs electricity costs; (DEFINITELY)
4) this calc does not include tax costs; (MOST LIKELY)
5) this calc does not include low-emissions zone costs; (DEPENDS on buyer/usage)
6) Leasing co's maybe overestimating resale attractiveness of dino-juice beemers in 3-years time; (MY OPINION)
7) Leasing co's may think they can pre-buy sufficient of the Teslas that they effectively control the Tesla leasing price at this moment (POSSIBLE, I am not that clued up on this area)

If either of us could be bothered to pull out that last post from wayback somewhen then we could fairly easily insert the missing elements to get a apples-to-apples comparison. Personally I have to do some gardening today before the rains sweep in again.

regards, dspp

[Howard]

Howard,
Thanks, interesting,

We've done this exercise before, which was I guess at a time ??? when Tesla book price was not as favourable, but still the Tesla came out ahead on a fully costed basis. I think you are missing the following:
1) Leasing co's may be overestimating Tesla maintenance due to low knowledge base; (MAYBE) DISAGREE - THEY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING
2) Leasing co's may be forwards looking and anticipating future Tesla price reductions (Berlin factory, tariffs ....) hence lowered Tesla resale value; (MAYBE)
3) this calc does not include fuel vs electricity costs; (DEFINITELY) AGREED
4) this calc does not include tax costs; (MOST LIKELY) AGREED
5) this calc does not include low-emissions zone costs; (DEPENDS on buyer/usage) NOT RELEVANT FOR MOST PRIVATE MOTORISTS
6) Leasing co's maybe overestimating resale attractiveness of dino-juice beemers in 3-years time; (MY OPINION) DISAGREE - THEY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING
7) Leasing co's may think they can pre-buy sufficient of the Teslas that they effectively control the Tesla leasing price at this moment (POSSIBLE, I am not that clued up on this area) MY GUESS IS THAT LEASING COMPANIES MAY HAVE PRE-ORDERED TESLAS, AND WILL HAVE NEGOTIATED MAJOR DISCOUNTS

If either of us could be bothered to pull out that last post from wayback somewhen then we could fairly easily insert the missing elements to get a apples-to-apples comparison. Personally I have to do some gardening today before the rains sweep in again.

regards, dspp

I will look for your original company car costings. Like you I’m intending to be out in the garden. Relaying paving slabs. But when you’re retired, every day is a weekend and it’s one slab at a time!

Sticking to the situation for a private motorist for the moment, I'd make the following observations:

We can’t know for sure, but Finance companies offering car leasing are very knowledgeable about maintenance costs. I know it’s controversial, but there is a lot of evidence out there already that Teslas do need quite a bit of attention. On a sample of one, (and I don’t want to tempt fate) my 5 Series BMW (like its 3 Series predecessor) has only visited a dealer once after two years and that was for its first service. It was done while I waited and took not much longer than it takes a Tesla to charge! The cost to the Finance company was minimal.

For a private motorist, assuming there is off-road parking, we need to add £1,000 up front cost for a home charger for a Tesla. There may be a grant to offset some of this but it’s a hassle to get. Yes, there is a little more road tax to pay on a BMW but it's not much.

To be frank, a standard range Tesla would be a daft idea for someone who drives 10k miles a year and doesn’t have offroad facilities. If, like me, the nearest Tesla supercharger is five miles away in a busy supermarket car park, having to charge every 200 miles would mean a weekly one hour trip to the charger hoping it’s not being used. So say an average of one and a half hours a week. That’s 75 hours a year! Or on longer trips the same amount of time diverting en-route to find a charger.

The range of a BMW would comfortably allow re-fuelling every 500 miles. So that’s 20 visits to a petrol station a year. At 10 minutes a visit that’s under four hours a year.

I reckon my time is worth £50 an hour. A Tesla without home charging would cost a driver like me £3,750 per year and a BMW £200!

The fuel costs will be much cheaper for a Tesla, but a BMW 3 series will get around 40mpg when driven 10k miles a year. So the cost of fuel will be around £4,000 for the three years in total. I doubt if the Tesla will use much less than £2,000 of electricity. So it's not a huge consideration for a private motorist given the time saved in fuelling.

To be continued ....

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

HI Howard,

I think you are missing some points here.

Many of the folk who will lease a Tesla will have off road parking and will swing for the home charging setup.

Home charging should last for several years, so that the cost per year over say 10 years is small.

With home charging many users can forget about petrol stations, never needing to use one.

A home user with roof top solar will get his/her electricity for less. If a power wall is installed they have both protection against power cuts and close to zero cost for electricity and again the power wall is designed to last 20 years, so the cost per year and added selling point if the house is sold are pluses.

However, I think the biggest error you are making is forgetting how affluent people in the UK are and how having the newest and in this case greenest transport is a big thing for many and if that also saves them a few bob and future proofs them against what ever methods of paying for the pandemic the treasury dream up that hurts ICE, all the better.

There is a class of folk who will only have the best and although one might argue its a small minority, the volume of sales of expensive Apple and similar products goes against such thoughts. With experience people tend to become more resistant to such thoughts, but for young executives with ambitions there is a strong need to show how successful, prosperous and currently how green you are.

I will be very surprised if BEV do not become the must have for many and that the brand of choice will be Tesla.

If as I expected, the Chancellor brings back the fuel escalator or similar, the second hand market for BEV will also rise up and confound the leasing companies who are not imho looking far enough forward and are assuming that nothing will change.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

If either of us could be bothered to pull out that last post from wayback somewhen then we could fairly easily insert the missing elements to get a apples-to-apples comparison.

Discussion starts on page 130.

However, I think the biggest error you are making is forgetting how affluent people in the UK are and how having the newest and in this case greenest transport is a big thing for many and if that also saves them a few bob and future proofs them against what ever methods of paying for the pandemic the treasury dream up that hurts ICE, all the better.

The greenest cars around are the ID.3 and the ID.4 and it isn't even close.

Balance sheet CO2 neutral cradle to grave.

There is a class of folk who will only have the best and although one might argue its a small minority, the volume of sales of expensive Apple and similar products goes against such thoughts. With experience people tend to become more resistant to such thoughts, but for young executives with ambitions there is a strong need to show how successful, prosperous and currently how green you are.

Yup, they are called Porsche drivers, and they are very good customers.

[odysseus2000]

This is the Tesla daily video discussing some of the mechanics of the S&P addition:

https://youtu.be/XUL38fWY8LY

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
The greenest cars around are the ID.3 and the ID.4 and it isn't even close.

Balance sheet CO2 neutral cradle to grave.

odysseus2000 wrote:
There is a class of folk who will only have the best and although one might argue its a small minority, the volume of sales of expensive Apple and similar products goes against such thoughts. With experience people tend to become more resistant to such thoughts, but for young executives with ambitions there is a strong need to show how successful, prosperous and currently how green you are.


Yup, they are called Porsche drivers, and they are very good customers.

Here is the problem with this analysis.

Porsche are very expensive & not practical for most people.

VW are synominous with shopping car market, the sort of second car vehicle & as such are seen as boring, not the sort of statement an affluent business person wants to portray.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
The greenest cars around are the ID.3 and the ID.4 and it isn't even close.

Balance sheet CO2 neutral cradle to grave.

odysseus2000 wrote:
There is a class of folk who will only have the best and although one might argue its a small minority, the volume of sales of expensive Apple and similar products goes against such thoughts. With experience people tend to become more resistant to such thoughts, but for young executives with ambitions there is a strong need to show how successful, prosperous and currently how green you are.


Yup, they are called Porsche drivers, and they are very good customers.

Here is the problem with this analysis.

Porsche are very expensive & not practical for most people.

VW are synominous with shopping car market, the sort of second car vehicle & as such are seen as boring, not the sort of statement an affluent business person wants to portray.

Regards,

They were your criteria.

The greenest cars around are the ID.3 and ID.4.

The best green car around is the Taycan, and Porsches appeal to exactly the crowd you described, who can afford them...

Perhaps you need a third category so Tesla can win one.

[dealtn]

BobbyD
The greenest cars around are the ID.3 and the ID.4 and it isn't even close.

Balance sheet CO2 neutral cradle to grave.

odysseus2000 wrote:
There is a class of folk who will only have the best and although one might argue its a small minority, the volume of sales of expensive Apple and similar products goes against such thoughts. With experience people tend to become more resistant to such thoughts, but for young executives with ambitions there is a strong need to show how successful, prosperous and currently how green you are.


Yup, they are called Porsche drivers, and they are very good customers.

Here is the problem with this analysis.

Porsche are very expensive & not practical for most people.

VW are synominous with shopping car market, the sort of second car vehicle & as such are seen as boring, not the sort of statement an affluent business person wants to portray.

Regards,

To quote someone "Here is the problem with this analysis"

Yet TESLA hits the "sweet spot"?

Confirmation Bias (again!)

[odysseus2000]

dealtn

To quote someone "Here is the problem with this analysis"

Yet TESLA hits the "sweet spot"?

Confirmation Bias (again!)

We will soon have the sales numbers to confirm or otherwise, but according to the company (Tesla reports), demand is far in excess of what they can supply.

Regards,

[dspp]

For a private motorist, assuming there is off-road parking, we need to add £1,000 up front cost for a home charger for a Tesla. There may be a grant to offset some of this but it’s a hassle to get. Yes, there is a little more road tax to pay on a BMW but it's not much.

To be continued ....

regards

Howard

Howard,

There is no need to pay £1000 to set up for overnight charging. Less than £100 would do it via a 16A 1ph socket (blue IEC socket, often called a 'commando' socket in the UK). Frankly for overnight charging in commuter use a standard 13A socket will do the trick. Yes one can pay more, but one does not need to.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... uk.163439/
or
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ug.165126/
or
https://forums.tesla.com/discussion/506 ... ndo-outlet

EDIT @ 17:34
Here are some switched + interlocked IEC/commando sockets, these are the 32A version, £20-£34 :
https://www.tlc-direct.co.uk/Products/L ... sh3SS.html
https://www.rselectricalsupplies.co.uk/ ... w66015_268

EDIT @ 17:41
And here interlocked + switched + RCD bay for £102
https://www.rselectricalsupplies.co.uk/ ... 66988_9433
and a typical dual pole RCD is £26
https://www.cef.co.uk/catalogue/product ... lsrc=aw.ds
Which would seem to be fully compliant with latest IEE regs ........

regards,
dspp