Adamski wrote:Thanks for posting that table of ev sales in europe, Howard. I think the vw id.3 is going to be huge. Not cause of technology, but because it is cheaper and Volkswagen can scale up mass production, so that this becomes the new polo and golf. This to me is the big issue tesla will face. It has a narrow moat. Once the big car manufacturers have mass ev production and starts delivering in big numbers, then teslas stock price will plummet.
Maybe, but they will have to sort out the battery shortages and if the ID3 is huge it means that all their ICE engine lines will suffer and those lines capital expense will have to be written off hurting their balance sheet.
Before long I expect we will stories of ID3 owners having range problems, software problems and a whole host of other teething troubles and at the same time all the hybrid investment looks doomed.
VW board members and big investors are already fretting about the low margins on ID3 (trade stories say ID3 margin is negative, but so far no independent verification) and they are also concerned about the effect of BEV on all the existing ICE manufacturing they had expected to depreciate over the next decade, ditto all the hybrid research.
Tesla by contrast have better batteries, more supply and better range with all of these set to improve on very strong upward trajectories and the ability to sell into home storage should the auto industry remain depressed.
I don't know how this will all pan out, but VW have to execute near perfectly on everything, just to survive. If they make a mistake they are in huge trouble.
Tesla also have a cult type fan base whilst VW threw theirs away with diesel gate and Tesla have the advantages of advanced cast manufacturing, integral battery packs, new tab-less cell technology with the currently unknowable ace up their sleeves of robotic driving.
Regards,