Musk endeavours

[dspp]

If this is the stickiest mud that can be thrown at VW frankly I'm underinvested!

BD,

You misunderstand: I am not intending to throw mud at VW. At this stage I think they are the only legacy auto mfg co that might make a success of the transition. However I can also see that all is not sweetness and light in the VAG group camp. Whether VAG represents a better or worse investment than TSLA is entirely up to you, or even if you wish to have a nibble at all in this sector. Personally I can analyse the TSLA numbers, and see sufficient & continuous news/information flow, from commercial/financial/technical/industrial perspectives, that I can form a view on TSLA in this respect. However, as you rightly point out, verifiable news on these perspectives in relation to the VAG effort in BEVs is extremely hard to come by and even harder to assess as whether it is a fair representation vs spin vs FUD, or even the extent to which it is polluted by non-BEV info. Given that my biggest loss in recent years was on HUR, and that was very directly linked to them both controlling and spinning the information flow, then I am somewhat allergic to putting my trust in spin. That for me makes VAG uninvestable at this stage, however much I otherwise might wish to place a side-bet.

Returning to Musk endeavours, and specifically TSLA, what do you think of the share price action associated with the S&P500 inclusion ..... it seems rather impressive to me. Whilst I think it is disconnected from the underlying industrial reality, it is nonetheless a sight to behold.

regards,
dspp

[BobbyD]

You misunderstand: I am not intending to throw mud at VW.

Which would make somebody who obviously understands the difference between data and tittle tattle repeatedly posting the latter very difficult to understand. Not a reasoned argument based within the confines of a defined ignorance, straight up unsourced 'rumour'.

BTW how do you think the NHTSA investigation in to Tesla's alleged suspension problems will play out now that the Chinese have ordered a recall?

[dspp]

You misunderstand: I am not intending to throw mud at VW.

Which would make somebody who obviously understands the difference between data and tittle tattle repeatedly posting the latter very difficult to understand. Not a reasoned argument based within the confines of a defined ignorance, straight up unsourced 'rumour'.

BTW how do you think the NHTSA investigation in to Tesla's alleged suspension problems will play out now that the Chinese have ordered a recall?

I'm not sure. Both seem quite small in terms of numbers of vehicles. There are other recalls in the Tesla fleet - it is part of scaling that this becomes evident.

I would be very happy to have better quality info re VW. In the absence of that rumours is what we have.

regards, dspp

[tjh290633]

As things now are with BEV I am not sure any BEV could give this kind of anxiety free range.

30,000 miles over say 48 weeks at 5 days per week = 30,000/(48x5) = average 125 miles per day, but given that some days will be 350 miles, the best cost effective option currently would be the model 3 long range has an epa rated range of 353 miles:

https://www.google.com/search?client=sa ... 8&oe=UTF-8

The long range model S is better at 400 miles, but more expensive:

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/model- ... edirect=no

We could argue for ever whether these ranges are real or marketing.

For this kind of distance motoring one would need a home fast charger to be sure of getting the charge needed which are expensive, although if one is visiting clients in cities with pollution charging, this may favour the cost of the home charger over paying the pollution charges.

The other concern is the preparedness of Finance Directors to foot the Tesla bill. Back in those days I drove a Lancia Dedra followed by a Rover 600, both petrol, of course. Nowadays likely to be something in the £20,000 range, like my current Suzuki SX4 S-cross or a Nissan Qashquai.

I still occasionally do over 400 miles in a day, there and back to a function when things are normal. Usually 90 minutes at one site, then between 2-3 hours at another. The chances of finding a charging point at a school playing field are probably remote in the extreme. Possibly more likely than at a construction site.

I can see more future in the hydrogen route.

TJH

[BobbyD]

I would be very happy to have better quality info re VW. In the absence of that rumours is what we have.

Information>no information>FUD.

[BobbyD]

I've just come across rumours that Elon is an Alien and that 5G masts are spreading COVID...

[odysseus2000]

I can see more future in the hydrogen route.

TJH

Unless I am missing something I don't see how e-fuels can be anything but a very expensive way to keep using ICE.

These folk are even more pessimistic on e-fuels:

https://theicct.org/blog/staff/e-fuels- ... t-save-ice

The graph at the bottom comparing the system efficiency of e-fuel to BEV gives a total path way efficiency for BEV of 72% and 16% for e-fuels.

I am aware that many legacy oil and autos are promoting e-fuels as the solution as they remove the range limitations if you have a network of e-fuel stations. However, given the pathway efficiency ratio of BEV/e-fuel of 72/16 and the cost to build out an e-fuel storage system once one has spent a fortune on the production facilities I fail to see how e-fuels can be anything other than a way to get money out of ignorant politicians.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

This is a good FUD article on Tesla:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/439192 ... ent=link-2

The author imho is a good writer, driven by what seems to be a personal hate for Musk and Tesla and sets out a good bear case, making sure that he has tarred anyone who might raise questions as being either in love with Tesla or holding a large Tesla equity position and hence biased. Meanwhile he notes that he is short Tesla in a very small way and has no idea about what will happen. The thesis is now an old one: Legacy auto is a paragon of service and repairs, Tesla has no service or support because their business model is flawed. This type of approach has hurt anyone who followed it for the last several years. It might work in the future or it might not.

Regards,

[tjh290633]

I can see more future in the hydrogen route.

TJH

Unless I am missing something I don't see how e-fuels can be anything but a very expensive way to keep using ICE.

Hydrogen is another way of storing electricity, which is then converted back in a fuel cell.

More convenient and less weight than a battery.

Easier to refuel

Longer range

Probably a lot less expensive.

TJH

[Howard]

This is a good FUD article on Tesla:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/439192 ... ent=link-2

The author imho is a good writer, driven by what seems to be a personal hate for Musk and Tesla and sets out a good bear case, making sure that he has tarred anyone who might raise questions as being either in love with Tesla or holding a large Tesla equity position and hence biased. Meanwhile he notes that he is short Tesla in a very small way and has no idea about what will happen. The thesis is now an old one: Legacy auto is a paragon of service and repairs, Tesla has no service or support because their business model is flawed. This type of approach has hurt anyone who followed it for the last several years. It might work in the future or it might not.

Regards,

Interesting report:

Similarities with the experiences of the German BEV hire company a year or so ago. Why can't Tesla deliver good service? This is why leasing companies predict that servicing costs will be higher with their cars.

Yet another confirmation that Tesla's cars range fall far short in real life driving. And this was true for a fleet of 72 cars.

Lot's more interesting stuff. US investors aren't really clued up on the European market (nor perhaps China). Maybe they consider this FUD?

Tesla sales have plummeted in the Netherlands in 2020. Maybe this case is one of the reasons. We'll see if their sales pick up in the next few weeks.

Ody, I bet you enjoyed the quote about the excellence of Mercedes service .

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

I can see more future in the hydrogen route.

TJH

Unless I am missing something I don't see how e-fuels can be anything but a very expensive way to keep using ICE.

Hydrogen is another way of storing electricity, which is then converted back in a fuel cell.

More convenient and less weight than a battery.

Easier to refuel

Longer range

Probably a lot less expensive.

TJH

Yes, but this is not an e-fuel that is the focus of various industrial and political groups.

Regarding fuel cells there is nothing new about them. They were used on the Apollo landings and have the advantages you note, although they are far from inexpensive and the best ones require very expensive catalysts. Added to these costs are the efficiency losses of converting water to Hydrogen, about 50% efficient and the need to create a large network of cryogenic storage stations to hold the hydrogen and ditto for any car that is to be powered by hydrogen fuel cells.

There have been many studies over many decades as to the feasibility of an hydrogen fuel cell economy, but I have yet to find one that is remotely practical in terms of providing low cost transport. The US coal industry had various schemes to extract hydrogen from coal, but none were practical.

If you or anyone else knows of cost effective practical fuel cell systems please post as I find this technology interesting and it may be applicable to space exploration were low cost is not as important as in terrestrial transport.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Ody, I bet you enjoyed the quote about the excellence of Mercedes service .

regards

Howard

Yes, I did.

However, when I had my Mercedes I was sold a part that was different to the one I specified and shown on their own service manual. The branch I was dealing with were at loggerhead with the main UK service centre and would not speak to each other. In the end I went to another branch that were far more helpful and they did get me the right part, but I was far from impressed by their service or by the cost of the part or its quality.

Regards,

[Howard]

The "Tesla Claim Foundation" ,referred to above, in the Netherlands case is at https://en.teslaclaim.nl/

I read about it some time ago but refrained from posting it because I was unsure whether it might be just some disaffected owners. However, it has grown significantly and the legal case in Holland is proceeding and attracting some attention.

As you might imagine, the lower range complaints are becoming more relevant as more individuals and organisations are making them. These are just one of the issues in this case however.

regards

Howard

[dspp]

I can see more future in the hydrogen route.

TJH

Unless I am missing something I don't see how e-fuels can be anything but a very expensive way to keep using ICE.

Hydrogen is ...... Probably a lot less expensive.

TJH

TJH,
Please put numbers on your assertion.
Regards,
dspp

[dspp]

Global Top 20 October 2020 per EV sales blogspot
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/11/gl ... -2020.html

YTD by model:
#1 = Tesla 3 = 260,927
#2 = Renault Zoe = 74,124

YTD by manufacturer:
#1 = Tesla = 352,792 = 17% of total
#2 = VW = 138,290 = 7% of total

The gap between the #1 and the #2 is quite telling in both cases. Bear in mind that EV sales is counting both BEV+PHEV, with the ratio still holding a 2:1 approx.

These sales are the # vehicles. If you mentally convert either to $$$ revenue, or to kWh, then Tesla's position is even more differentiated.

The ID3 and the Zoe and the Wuling Mini EV are all putting in credible performances, as is the Tesla Y.

It will be interesting to see how the impending Tesla factory capacity additions influence the Tesla position vs RestOfWorld, i.e. will Tesla increase o/a mkt share or will RestOfWorld be able to collectively add pro rata more than Tesla adds. That will give us insight into the underlying cell manufacturing capacities available to the players.

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

Similarities with the experiences of the German BEV hire company a year or so ago. Why can't Tesla deliver good service? This is why leasing companies predict that servicing costs will be higher with their cars.

Because their focus is on covering as much ground as possible, not consolidating and building out infrastructure. It's why they can't platform and why they can't service.

Why waste time investing for the long term in the best BEV market in the planet for instance, Norway, to develop a halo operation and a sustainable long term customer base when you can be the best selling vehicle in Malta one month and the best selling vehicle in Iceland another with no hope of installing a proper service network in any of the countries you move in to?

We had this conversation when Tesla were rolling out across Europe, they had the choice to develop a servicing and distribution network rolling out logically and progressively across the continent as they went, or to hire a chimp with a set of darts and a map of the continent to oversee the operation. Needless to say chimp unemployment is down.

Global Top 20 October 2020 per EV sales blogspot
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/11/gl ... -2020.html

YTD by model:
#1 = Tesla 3 = 260,927
#2 = Renault Zoe = 74,124

YTD by manufacturer:
#1 = Tesla = 352,792 = 17% of total
#2 = VW = 138,290 = 7% of total

The gap between the #1 and the #2 is quite telling in both cases. Bear in mind that EV sales is counting both BEV+PHEV, with the ratio still holding a 2:1 approx.

Yup, they tell you it is 2020 and the new emissions regs have just kicked in!

[dspp]

For any of you considering trading TSLA in the short term, worth reading this analysis

https://teslainvestor.blogspot.com/2020 ... art-2.html

- dspp

[Howard]

Global Top 20 October 2020 per EV sales blogspot
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/11/gl ... -2020.html

YTD by model:
#1 = Tesla 3 = 260,927
#2 = Renault Zoe = 74,124

YTD by manufacturer:
#1 = Tesla = 352,792 = 17% of total
#2 = VW = 138,290 = 7% of total

The gap between the #1 and the #2 is quite telling in both cases. Bear in mind that EV sales is counting both BEV+PHEV, with the ratio still holding a 2:1 approx.

These sales are the # vehicles. If you mentally convert either to $$$ revenue, or to kWh, then Tesla's position is even more differentiated.

The ID3 and the Zoe and the Wuling Mini EV are all putting in credible performances, as is the Tesla Y.

It will be interesting to see how the impending Tesla factory capacity additions influence the Tesla position vs RestOfWorld, i.e. will Tesla increase o/a mkt share or will RestOfWorld be able to collectively add pro rata more than Tesla adds. That will give us insight into the underlying cell manufacturing capacities available to the players.

regards, dspp

As Bobby D has pointed out around a year ago we had a discussion about why a good distribution strategy was important.

If I remember rightly there was a bit of good-natured jeering at this idea.

It was a bit like what Bobby rightly calls “tittle tattle” about how bad VW were at software. For example in this post viewtopic.php?p=272469#p272469

Ironically it’s Tesla now facing a legal case in Holland about (amongst other things) their faulty software. And their "hilarious" suggestion for manual updates.

Some of us non-engineers warned that OTA software updates could be storing up problems. What did we know?

The particular issue in Holland is:

“In addition to major fails with drive shafts and wishbone suspension parts, this company also reports problems with the odometers, which can randomly jump when the cars get an OTA “reset” or they lose internet connection. This could cause major problems with the tax or the taxi authorities, which use odometer data to oversee operations. Tesla’s solution? Their service center has proposed adjusting the odometer readings by hand. This is illegal, so the company has asked Tesla to put it in writing.” See Ody's link above for more information.

To achieve sales growth Tesla is now having to sell to major organisations rather than “fans”. They are run by boring people like me and they won’t accept shoddy service. This was pointed out when faulty cars were supplied to a German rental company.

Whilst the sales in Holland at the end of 2019 were impressive in volume terms, the long-term profitability may be severely reduced by claims and reputational damage. Sales have dropped like a stone this year. Volume in 2019 was 31,000 and, up to today, this year it’s less than 4,500. Less than 100 sales in November, despite two ship deliveries of 10,000 cars to Zeebrugge. The Dutch legal case may be one of the reasons.

Interesting times! Around 40,000 cars to sell in Europe in the next four weeks. Let’s hope logistics are up to scratch!

Of course, we will read of VW service/software problems in the future. But it's how these are sorted out which makes all the difference. Boring German efficiency or inefficiency followed by legal claims? I think VW will try to give good service. It's the only route to long-term profitability. And they have only just started.

regards

Howard

[dspp]

I have just put up a table of EV sales by #, by $, and by GWh at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-5167151

Due to recent changes in TLF Ts & Cs I will not be posting data like that here for the time being. You are welcome to read it over there.

Bottom line suggests that Tesla are about 34% of GWh, and about 32% of $$, for about 14% of #.

regards, dspp

[dspp]

As Bobby D has pointed out around a year ago we had a discussion about why a good distribution strategy was important.....

..........

Of course, we will read of VW service/software problems in the future. But it's how these are sorted out which makes all the difference. Boring German efficiency or inefficiency followed by legal claims? I think VW will try to give good service. It's the only route to long-term profitability. And they have only just started.

regards

Howard

Howard, BD,

You are absolutely right, service is important. I think it is a weak area for Tesla. However I think it is (just barely) good enough. But way out in front of service are the following:

1. Product,
2. Price,
3. Charger network access reliably,
4. Performance (overall, blended),
5. Service.

At present Tesla are ramping up product production as quickly as possible, faster than anyone else. Decreasing price whenever and wherever possible. Accelerating charger network build out to keep pace with fleet build. Improving performance - esp range - faster than anybody else. Oh, and last on that list building service network, just barely fast enough to keep up, or perhaps not quite at that rate.

So, glass half full, or glass half empty ? But yes, it is not a perfect glass. But still it seems better than all the other drinks out there.

regards, dspp