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Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#405948

Postby BobbyD » April 21st, 2021, 8:42 pm

Norway is having a good month.

They sold 3,670 BEV's in April 2020, so far this month they've sold 3,984 with almost a third of the month left.

Did a quick tally:

Total sold: 3,984

VW sold: 1,947

Telsa sold: 4 (four)

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#405980

Postby odysseus2000 » April 21st, 2021, 10:15 pm

murraypaul wrote:Current early adopters are buying electric cars because they are passionate about owning an electric car.
They will become mass market propositions when people buy them because they are just like any other car, but cheaper to run.


Maybe, but the same was often said about mobile phones and yet Apple continue to make a very good living from making and selling them and have their own ecosystem of associated and compatible products. Tesla look to be trying to become the Apple of BEV and renewable energy.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#405982

Postby odysseus2000 » April 21st, 2021, 10:18 pm

NotSure wrote:
murraypaul wrote:Current early adopters are buying electric cars because they are passionate about owning an electric car.
They will become mass market propositions when people buy them because they are just like any other car, but cheaper to run.


Teslas are status symbols. There's a good market for status symbol cars, but it is inevitable that Tesla will soon be sharing this space. As such, to justify their market cap, they will surely also need a (good) share of the 'A to B and never goes wrong' market? That was the market that became completely dominated by Japanese cars 'back in the day'. Their success was largely due to very customer-focussed R&D and dramatically raising the bar on reliability, rather than selling to the types who like to drive Mercs and beamers.


Tesla are imho aiming to become the Apple of BEV and renewable energy by both technically leading and lowering the price, as Henry Ford did. I am far from convinced that competitors will share this space. VW's, for example, ID4 is not in the same league and yet sells at about the same price as Tesla offerings.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#405983

Postby odysseus2000 » April 21st, 2021, 10:23 pm

The problem is that Ody is an expert on last century cars. He doesn't have any experience of driving a 21st century car and has to rely on Tesla shareholders' YouTube videos for information.

One day he'll get in a modern car, perhaps a VW, or maybe even a BEV and it will be a revelation. ;)

regards

Howard


Ha Ha

VW will have to make a modern car first. For now the ID4 et al are Frankenstein collections of 20th century tech with a nod to the 21st century, in some wild belief that VW punters are too backward for a state of the art motor.

Sure there are folk who will buy ID4 based on their belief in VW, but no discerning motorist will pay as much for a VW as a Tesla and most discerning motorists will want the best their is and that means Tesla.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#405998

Postby Howard » April 22nd, 2021, 12:26 am

Reuters reports that Tesla has now apologised following the protest by a customer in China.

The hashtag of the incident was viewed by 150 million people on Weibo, according to the Wall Street Journal.

"Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) apologised to Chinese consumers for not addressing a customer's complaints in a timely way, and said it would launch a review of its service operations in the world's biggest auto market.

The unusual public apology from Tesla followed criticism in state media, and an incident at the Shanghai auto show that got wide attention in China's social media."

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/aut ... 021-04-20/

"WSJ explains how possible quality issues with Tesla cars could threaten the EV-maker’s meteoric rise."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-face ... 1618835609

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406066

Postby murraypaul » April 22nd, 2021, 10:31 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
murraypaul wrote:Current early adopters are buying electric cars because they are passionate about owning an electric car.
They will become mass market propositions when people buy them because they are just like any other car, but cheaper to run.


Maybe, but the same was often said about mobile phones and yet Apple continue to make a very good living from making and selling them and have their own ecosystem of associated and compatible products. Tesla look to be trying to become the Apple of BEV and renewable energy.


You do know that Samsung on their own have a higher mobile phone market share than Apple does?
Post-Jobs Apple isn't really Apple any more, they aren't innovating, and the high-end Samsung phones are as or more capable technically that the equivalent iPhones.

Apple had the market almost to themselves, then gradually lost more and more market share as other companies caught up and eventually outpaced them.
They were driven entirely by their charismatic figurehead, and lost their way without him.
Is that really the comparison you want?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406085

Postby BobbyD » April 22nd, 2021, 11:00 am

Speaking of cannibalising your own business..

Cross-Sell's registration data, invoked by Reuters, reveals that as far as California is considered, the Model Y noted 12,227 new registrations in the first quarter of 2021, compared to 8,060 for the Model 3. The Model 3 is down 54% year-over-year, which was indicated also in the Cox Automotive and Kelley Blue Book report for the U.S.


https://insideevs.com/news/502546/tesla ... alifornia/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406101

Postby odysseus2000 » April 22nd, 2021, 11:39 am

murraypaul wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
murraypaul wrote:Current early adopters are buying electric cars because they are passionate about owning an electric car.
They will become mass market propositions when people buy them because they are just like any other car, but cheaper to run.


Maybe, but the same was often said about mobile phones and yet Apple continue to make a very good living from making and selling them and have their own ecosystem of associated and compatible products. Tesla look to be trying to become the Apple of BEV and renewable energy.


You do know that Samsung on their own have a higher mobile phone market share than Apple does?
Post-Jobs Apple isn't really Apple any more, they aren't innovating, and the high-end Samsung phones are as or more capable technically that the equivalent iPhones.

Apple had the market almost to themselves, then gradually lost more and more market share as other companies caught up and eventually outpaced them.
They were driven entirely by their charismatic figurehead, and lost their way without him.
Is that really the comparison you want?


The smartphone market remains competitive with Apple leading Samsung in q4 2020:

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/gl ... one-share/


Highlights:
• The global smartphone market continued to recover in Q4 2020, rebounding 8% QoQ to 395.9 million units.
• Apple’s 8% YoY and 96% QoQ growth helped it lead the market in Q4 2020.
• Samsung slipped to the second spot with 62.5 million units in Q4 2020, However, it led the overall market in CY 2020.
• For the first time, OPPO and vivo surpassed Huawei to capture the fourth and fifth spots respectively, Huawei slipped to the sixth spot.
• realme emerged as the fastest growing brand in CY 2020 with 65% YoY growth.


It has been a popular argument that Apple without Jobs are in decline, but the annual revenue has more than doubled since Steve Jobs was lost in 2011. Sure the rate of quarter over quarter growth has not been as big as in 2011 when Apple was much smaller as one expects, but the company itself is in very robust health and is showing an exceptional range of products and innovations such as the now industry leading M1 chip and a very loyal user base:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... le/revenue

If this is losing their way then I am very confused by the term.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406105

Postby odysseus2000 » April 22nd, 2021, 11:49 am

Series of tweets from Elon regarding solar and power walls and how they will be sold going forwards:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/138 ... 88906?s=20

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/138 ... 83360?s=20

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/138 ... 47204?s=20

Probably this will lead to some interesting questions at the coming shareholder meeting.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406106

Postby dealtn » April 22nd, 2021, 11:51 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
murraypaul wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Maybe, but the same was often said about mobile phones and yet Apple continue to make a very good living from making and selling them and have their own ecosystem of associated and compatible products. Tesla look to be trying to become the Apple of BEV and renewable energy.


You do know that Samsung on their own have a higher mobile phone market share than Apple does?
Post-Jobs Apple isn't really Apple any more, they aren't innovating, and the high-end Samsung phones are as or more capable technically that the equivalent iPhones.

Apple had the market almost to themselves, then gradually lost more and more market share as other companies caught up and eventually outpaced them.
They were driven entirely by their charismatic figurehead, and lost their way without him.
Is that really the comparison you want?


The smartphone market remains competitive with Apple leading Samsung in q4 2020:

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/gl ... one-share/


Highlights:
• The global smartphone market continued to recover in Q4 2020, rebounding 8% QoQ to 395.9 million units.
• Apple’s 8% YoY and 96% QoQ growth helped it lead the market in Q4 2020.
• Samsung slipped to the second spot with 62.5 million units in Q4 2020, However, it led the overall market in CY 2020.
• For the first time, OPPO and vivo surpassed Huawei to capture the fourth and fifth spots respectively, Huawei slipped to the sixth spot.
• realme emerged as the fastest growing brand in CY 2020 with 65% YoY growth.


It has been a popular argument that Apple without Jobs are in decline, but the annual revenue has more than doubled since Steve Jobs was lost in 2011. Sure the rate of quarter over quarter growth has not been as big as in 2011 when Apple was much smaller as one expects, but the company itself is in very robust health and is showing an exceptional range of products and innovations such as the now industry leading M1 chip and a very loyal user base:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... le/revenue

If this is losing their way then I am very confused by the term.

Regards,



So when you use Apple as your example and say "I am far from convinced that competitors will share this space" you are referring to a company with a 20% market share.

You are not alone in being confused by terms. What do you mean by "share this space"?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406110

Postby BobbyD » April 22nd, 2021, 12:02 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
murraypaul wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Maybe, but the same was often said about mobile phones and yet Apple continue to make a very good living from making and selling them and have their own ecosystem of associated and compatible products. Tesla look to be trying to become the Apple of BEV and renewable energy.


You do know that Samsung on their own have a higher mobile phone market share than Apple does?
Post-Jobs Apple isn't really Apple any more, they aren't innovating, and the high-end Samsung phones are as or more capable technically that the equivalent iPhones.

Apple had the market almost to themselves, then gradually lost more and more market share as other companies caught up and eventually outpaced them.
They were driven entirely by their charismatic figurehead, and lost their way without him.
Is that really the comparison you want?


The smartphone market remains competitive with Apple leading Samsung in q4 2020:

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/gl ... one-share/


Highlights:
• The global smartphone market continued to recover in Q4 2020, rebounding 8% QoQ to 395.9 million units.
• Apple’s 8% YoY and 96% QoQ growth helped it lead the market in Q4 2020.
• Samsung slipped to the second spot with 62.5 million units in Q4 2020, However, it led the overall market in CY 2020.
• For the first time, OPPO and vivo surpassed Huawei to capture the fourth and fifth spots respectively, Huawei slipped to the sixth spot.
• realme emerged as the fastest growing brand in CY 2020 with 65% YoY growth.


It has been a popular argument that Apple without Jobs are in decline, but the annual revenue has more than doubled since Steve Jobs was lost in 2011. Sure the rate of quarter over quarter growth has not been as big as in 2011 when Apple was much smaller as one expects, but the company itself is in very robust health and is showing an exceptional range of products and innovations such as the now industry leading M1 chip and a very loyal user base:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... le/revenue

If this is losing their way then I am very confused by the term.

Regards,


Any particular reason you picked a single quarter rather than a year long or multi year perspective Ody?

Could it be that Apple win every Q4 but get absolutely hammered in every Q1, every Q2 and every Q3???

https://www.statista.com/statistics/271 ... rter-2009/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406113

Postby odysseus2000 » April 22nd, 2021, 12:12 pm

dealtn
So when you use Apple as your example and say "I am far from convinced that competitors will share this space" you are referring to a company with a 20% market share.

You are not alone in being confused by terms. What do you mean by "share this space"?


It is always about market share and margin.

Sure there are all manner of smartphone companies in India, China,... who will sell you a very competent smartphone or other tech for a fraction of what Apple or Samsung charge. But how many units do they sell in the prosperous Western economies?

There are many aspects to creating a successful manufacturing business and having a low cost product that you sell at a very low margin to a lot of people in a cut throat price alone manner is not one of them.

The whole concept that price is king and that manufacturing is a commodity product where lowest price takes the market is very outdated for the 21st century. Combining branding with competitive prices and creating an ecosystems of compatible products is in prosperous economies are much more profitable and create a sustainable market.

In the auto space we have most legacy trying to keep as much ICE manufacturing going as possible with VW scaling back their ID4 platform to stop it taking too much market share, competing with Tesla who are offering the best experience and relentless focused on bringing prices down is not the sort of business practices that are likely to serve legacy auto well in the future.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406115

Postby odysseus2000 » April 22nd, 2021, 12:21 pm

BobbyD
Any particular reason you picked a single quarter rather than a year long or multi year perspective Ody?

Could it be that Apple win every Q4 but get absolutely hammered in every Q1, every Q2 and every Q3???

https://www.statista.com/statistics/271 ... rter-2009/


Link wanted money or registering, so didn't view.

Apples share price since the sad loss of Steve Jobs in 2011 is this:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/138519 ... 18155?s=20

The share price has gone up by over a factor of 10 in 10 years. One can live well if ones investments do this.

I don't think many shareholders will care about the various arguments that Apple have lost their way, or one needs to compare quarter to quarter or any number of the other bear cases that have proved to be so much rubbish.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406121

Postby BobbyD » April 22nd, 2021, 12:35 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
Any particular reason you picked a single quarter rather than a year long or multi year perspective Ody?

Could it be that Apple win every Q4 but get absolutely hammered in every Q1, every Q2 and every Q3???

https://www.statista.com/statistics/271 ... rter-2009/


Link wanted money or registering, so didn't view.


https://www.counterpointresearch.com/gl ... one-share/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406130

Postby redsturgeon » April 22nd, 2021, 12:56 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
They have launched a 20th century car into the 21st century, ....... with cheapo rear hub brakes


You do yourself a disservice when you make unfounded remarks like these.

I drive many thousands of miles a year, sometimes quite enthusiastically if conditions allow and at other times in a relaxed and sedate manner. I have owned Mercedes, Lexus, BMW, VW, Honda, Range Rover and Ford in the past ten years so I have a fair idea of the strengths and weaknesses of a few brands.

I have driven well over 100,000 miles in the past decade, in fact ten thousand miles in the past three months, so I have a wide experience of modern cars since I usually buy or lease from new. A few years ago I bought a new Ford Focus and was "horrified" to note that it had drum brakes at the rear, something I could not remember seeing on any of my cars for some time. I drove that car for 25,000 completely trouble free miles over the next two years and do you know how many times I thought about those "cheap" rear brakes in that time...yup, not once! Did the car stop when required? Yes. Did the brakes cause any issue whatsoever? No.

As someone who is more interested in a car company making money rather than actually driving the product. I'd have thought you would have been full of praise for the sensible decision made to use cheaper to fit rear hub brakes to the ID4...or would that type of praise only be due to Tesla if they had gone that route?

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406148

Postby odysseus2000 » April 22nd, 2021, 1:57 pm

redsturgeon
As someone who is more interested in a car company making money rather than actually driving the product. I'd have thought you would have been full of praise for the sensible decision made to use cheaper to fit rear hub brakes to the ID4...or would that type of praise only be due to Tesla if they had gone that route?

John


Generally my experience of modern manufacturing is to make things as cheaply as possible, often to the point where functionality and life expectancy suffers. It is sometimes difficult to determine when one crosses the line between lower manufacturing cost and lower quality, but often it is obvious when one has some practical experience of the technology. I have worked on many cars with hub brakes and I have never found it a happy experience. The best solution I have seen is that used by Volvo where the rear brake is a disk brake for the foot operated brakes combined with a hub for the handbrake. I have seen these operate perfectly sensibly for well over 100,000 miles whereas the rear foot operated hub brakes have often been a problem. One of the most amusing and dangerous rear hand brake systems I saw was a system used by a French maker that had hand brake operated disk brakes. After a drive the driver would pull on the hand brake and then be surprised to find that the car had moved when it cooled down as the discs had contracted, the hand brake pads had no longer been in full contact with the disc and lost their effectiveness.

VW have come out with some technical comments about how hub brakes on electric cars do not corrode like disc brakes do and yet the front brakes are still left as disc brakes on the ID4 platform. From my perspective the use of hub brakes on the ID4 looks like a pure cost saving measure, likely designed to get the car through a 3 year lease and then cause trouble.

Whether in practice the hub brakes are good enough or a source of owner vexation remains to be seen, but I do not expect any modern car to have foot operated hub brakes. If such a technology was any good it would not have been abandoned for disc brakes many years ago. The appearance of hub brakes adds a ambiance of cheap and will put off anyone who has any knowledge of them and imho will likely come back and bite VW in terms of reliability issues.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406193

Postby Howard » April 22nd, 2021, 3:12 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
redsturgeon
As someone who is more interested in a car company making money rather than actually driving the product. I'd have thought you would have been full of praise for the sensible decision made to use cheaper to fit rear hub brakes to the ID4...or would that type of praise only be due to Tesla if they had gone that route?

John


Generally my experience of modern manufacturing is to make things as cheaply as possible, often to the point where functionality and life expectancy suffers. It is sometimes difficult to determine when one crosses the line between lower manufacturing cost and lower quality, but often it is obvious when one has some practical experience of the technology. I have worked on many cars with hub brakes and I have never found it a happy experience. The best solution I have seen is that used by Volvo where the rear brake is a disk brake for the foot operated brakes combined with a hub for the handbrake. I have seen these operate perfectly sensibly for well over 100,000 miles whereas the rear foot operated hub brakes have often been a problem. One of the most amusing and dangerous rear hand brake systems I saw was a system used by a French maker that had hand brake operated disk brakes. After a drive the driver would pull on the hand brake and then be surprised to find that the car had moved when it cooled down as the discs had contracted, the hand brake pads had no longer been in full contact with the disc and lost their effectiveness.

VW have come out with some technical comments about how hub brakes on electric cars do not corrode like disc brakes do and yet the front brakes are still left as disc brakes on the ID4 platform. From my perspective the use of hub brakes on the ID4 looks like a pure cost saving measure, likely designed to get the car through a 3 year lease and then cause trouble.

Whether in practice the hub brakes are good enough or a source of owner vexation remains to be seen, but I do not expect any modern car to have foot operated hub brakes. If such a technology was any good it would not have been abandoned for disc brakes many years ago. The appearance of hub brakes adds a ambiance of cheap and will put off anyone who has any knowledge of them and imho will likely come back and bite VW in terms of reliability issues.

Regards,


Yet again Ody you betray your ignorance of BEV driving. Braking in a BEV is quite different from the last century cars you have experience of.

Virtually all the braking is done by the regeneration system in normal driving. Only the last few yards is generally performed by the front disk brakes and the back brakes are probably just used as a handbrake.

It's a sad engineer who always harks back to times gone by.

It would be a good idea to get some up to date experience by driving some BEVs before commenting on issues like this. ;)

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406205

Postby odysseus2000 » April 22nd, 2021, 3:48 pm

Yet again Ody you betray your ignorance of BEV driving. Braking in a BEV is quite different from the last century cars you have experience of.

Virtually all the braking is done by the regeneration system in normal driving. Only the last few yards is generally performed by the front disk brakes and the back brakes are probably just used as a handbrake.

It's a sad engineer who always harks back to times gone by.

It would be a good idea to get some up to date experience by driving some BEVs before commenting on issues like this. ;)

regards

Howard


Ha Ha.

The ID3 requires that you turn on regenerative braking as they believe most of their customers want to drive a BEV like they drive an ICE, i.e. without regenerative braking. Didn't you watch the Munro videos?

Meanwhile Tesla have regenerative braking turned on as the default.

In the ID3, assuming that regenerative braking is turned on, then the rear hubs will not be used that much, so they won't have the benefits of the brake shoes heating the hub up to drive out moisture and will therefore likely corrode and become an issue more quickly.

The technical stuff I saw from VW on the hubs noted that they were less likely to corrode than having disc brakes. I have no idea how this can be correct.

There is nothing new about regenerative braking, save that with BEV some of the energy is returned to the battery system. Electromagnetic braking with the recovered energy being dissipated as heat has been used on coaches for decades.

One can argue that the footbrake acting on disc or drums is now a redundant systems with most of the braking being by reversing the motors from drive to capture energy. However, for emergencies one still needs the footbrake, so why save a few pennies on fitting hub brakes when one could have a more reliable and much more easily maintained disc system?

When playing with a new toy it is easy to become over influenced with its features and to feel that anyone who doesn't have the new toy must be missing out in their understanding, but the folk who understand the technology and are not being influenced by new toy have a far better understanding of the machine than those who are busy playing with it.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406208

Postby BobbyD » April 22nd, 2021, 3:59 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The ID3 requires that you turn on regenerative braking as they believe most of their customers want to drive a BEV like they drive an ICE, i.e. without regenerative braking. Didn't you watch the Munro videos?


You've completely misunderstood how the ID.3 works.

Munro spent half one of the videos trying to get to the navigation screen by repeatedly pressing the 'add current location as a charging location' button... It was absolutely hilarious, but not very useful.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#406210

Postby murraypaul » April 22nd, 2021, 4:03 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:When playing with a new toy it is easy to become over influenced with its features and to feel that anyone who doesn't have the new toy must be missing out in their understanding


Um, that sounds an awful lot like you talking about Telsa, to be brutally honest.


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