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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#279559

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2020, 12:50 am

Howard
It is interesting to read your forecasts of wonderful times to come. I too am an optimist but, as an investor am wary of putting a ruler on a graph and convincing myself that trees will grow to the sky. No-one knows whether you will be right or not. We could see a major problem occurring with the growth in China and sadly, the current health crisis could be an indicator of a major setback, or not?

I personally think the valuation of Tesla is insane. But what do I know? Your forecasts of their huge successes over the last five years or more, may come true. Anyone investing in them over the last six months has certainly made a killing. As a cautious investor, I'd be tempted to top slice as the price may come down.

In the real world, Tesla's performance is going to be reflected in their earnings report due out in the next week. We can assume that, on past form, this will present the rosiest possible view of their current financial situation. And presumably Tesla shareholders will be delighted to transfer a major part of their wealth to Elon Musk as a reward for his performance.


No one ever knows what will happen in the future and we all have to live with that lack of knowledge. If we had time machines and could see what was to come it would make life very certain but add a level of knowledge that many would likely have trouble with.

We all have to make decisions in this framework. A person can not e.g. know if a person they choose to live with will be a good fit for them, they evaluate all the information and then go ahead or not. If they go ahead they continually monitor the situation, ready to act if needed to correct problems or in a worst case to split apart.

Trading/investing is governed by the same mechanics.

We can e.g. believe that the current virus troubles in China are going to get a whole lot worse or be soon forgotten. We can look at projections which show a 6% growth in China, similar in India, 2% in the US etc:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-5-l ... 2020-01-22

and take comfort, but we can never know what will actually happen.

In trading/investing as in choosing a partner, we have to look forward and in doing so we consider many things. For financial decisions we often look for growth and we make our price decisions about whether to buy, sell or neither on what we think might happen, on what potential a share might have and do so with no certainty, just the collective feelings of all interested participants at the moment of consideration and then ongoing we continually consider if the current price is reasonable in our opinion. This type of analysis is very difficult when one is dealing with a company that has shown extraordinary ability and is now priced on the assumption that this extraordinary growth will continue. Many say it can not, many said the same of Ford, or of Amazon and others and were wrong, but there were many other runners who fell and are forgotten.

There is never certainty, just risk.

Tesla risk is that it could go badly wrong or that it could go greatly right. A Tesla holder could lose their stake or multiply it many fold. Many investors/traders can’t handle this and pass.

For now I currently feel the risk is of missing out to the upside.

Regards,

tjh290633
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Re: Musk endeavours

#279602

Postby tjh290633 » January 24th, 2020, 10:01 am

I am getting reminded more and more of the dot com boom, followed by a bust.

Here we have a company, yet to make a profit, with a sky high valuation.

There will be tears before bedtime.

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#279607

Postby PeterGray » January 24th, 2020, 10:05 am

You may, of course, be right.

But ....

Tesla is now the 2nd largest car co by capitalisation, but producing far fewer cars (30x less than VW which now has a smaller mcap), and is just about producing a profit in a good qtr.

That may be perfectly rational, but only if you expect Tesla to grow at an incredible rate. The amount of predicted growth in production and profits that is inherent in Tesla's sp is frankly mind blowing.

They could perhaps grow their market that much, but they will need staggering amounts of a capital to build factories, and they will have to start producing the sort of electric shopping trolleys that many (most?) people want and which is a long way from the Tesla brand ethos, and which they show no sign of doing currently.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#279608

Postby redsturgeon » January 24th, 2020, 10:07 am

So we now have Tesla valued more highly than every other car maker bar Toyota and yet some people still think it will go multiple times higher from here. Are we talking five times higher, or ten perhaps? Can we really believe that Tesla will be valued at ten times the value of the next biggest car company?

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#279628

Postby dspp » January 24th, 2020, 10:48 am

redsturgeon wrote:So we now have Tesla valued more highly than every other car maker bar Toyota and yet some people still think it will go multiple times higher from here. Are we talking five times higher, or ten perhaps? Can we really believe that Tesla will be valued at ten times the value of the next biggest car company?

John


As a pure-play car maker one can quite reasonably see a pathway to 20 mln cars/yr, which implies a valuation of $800-$1000/share, i.e. 2x Ford, GM, VAG, Toyota each as individual ~10mln/yr cars. I am picking the 20 mln/yr cars because that is the best match I can get on the Tesla S-curve within the overall EV S-curve within the overall global vehicles projections. It would take sustained perfect execution to do this. The capital requirement is perfectly feasible when one does the analysis, indeed Tesla would be throwing off cash for all of that journey just as it is now and has been for quite a few quarters. The faster Tesla moves along that pathway the lower the risk, because it is in fact a blitzkrieg strategy that utterly stuffs the ability of most legacy to respond meaningfully. This factor alone makes it really hard to evaluate.

Separately one needs to value charger network, autonomy, storage, and (if) any value in solar roofs. The last I ignore but I am prepared to reconsider idc because it would have value at the right scale. The others are potentially very valuable indeed. They all also drive network effects that in turn further drive valuation.

I hold.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#279704

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2020, 2:28 pm

These guys say there survey shows that 1 in 9 US house holds now expect a Tesla to be there next car, about 10 million households:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/tesla-t ... cards.html

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Re: Musk endeavours

#279705

Postby BobbyD » January 24th, 2020, 2:29 pm

New all electric smarts' prices revealed.

From £17k - £23k after Government bribe, range 70 miles.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#279712

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2020, 2:50 pm

redsturgeon wrote:So we now have Tesla valued more highly than every other car maker bar Toyota and yet some people still think it will go multiple times higher from here. Are we talking five times higher, or ten perhaps? Can we really believe that Tesla will be valued at ten times the value of the next biggest car company?

John


In Tesla there is the potential of both what Henry Ford and Rockerfeller did: Cars plus the energy to make them go in one company.

This may never happen but it is part of the story that buyers are currently focused upon and it could happen.

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#279714

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2020, 2:54 pm

tjh290633 wrote:I am getting reminded more and more of the dot com boom, followed by a bust.

Here we have a company, yet to make a profit, with a sky high valuation.

There will be tears before bedtime.

TJH


Yes, this does also feel to me like the dot com market in a few ways, but not imho anywhere near its peak.

We should also remember that fortunes were made on the way up and fortunes were made on the way down by the shorts in the dot com rise and fall.

This current market imho is a huge opportunity to make a lot of money.

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#279742

Postby Howard » January 24th, 2020, 4:00 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:I am getting reminded more and more of the dot com boom, followed by a bust.

Here we have a company, yet to make a profit, with a sky high valuation.

There will be tears before bedtime.

TJH


Yes, this does also feel to me like the dot com market in a few ways, but not imho anywhere near its peak.

We should also remember that fortunes were made on the way up and fortunes were made on the way down by the shorts in the dot com rise and fall.

This current market imho is a huge opportunity to make a lot of money.

Regards,


By taking a lot of risk!

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#279755

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2020, 4:41 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:I am getting reminded more and more of the dot com boom, followed by a bust.

Here we have a company, yet to make a profit, with a sky high valuation.

There will be tears before bedtime.

TJH


Yes, this does also feel to me like the dot com market in a few ways, but not imho anywhere near its peak.

We should also remember that fortunes were made on the way up and fortunes were made on the way down by the shorts in the dot com rise and fall.

This current market imho is a huge opportunity to make a lot of money.

Regards,


By taking a lot of risk!

Howard


The way the market is running you can get exposure with much smaller amounts of capital and still expect returns that are far above what one would get from a bank account.

However, to make the most of this market some knowledge of day and short period trading is an advantage, particularly so if we enter a bear market afterwards.

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#279759

Postby Howard » January 24th, 2020, 4:59 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Yes, this does also feel to me like the dot com market in a few ways, but not imho anywhere near its peak.

We should also remember that fortunes were made on the way up and fortunes were made on the way down by the shorts in the dot com rise and fall.

This current market imho is a huge opportunity to make a lot of money.

Regards,


By taking a lot of risk!

Howard


The way the market is running you can get exposure with much smaller amounts of capital and still expect returns that are far above what one would get from a bank account.

However, to make the most of this market some knowledge of day and short period trading is an advantage, particularly so if we enter a bear market afterwards.

Regards,


If you are suggesting borrowing money or similar trading to get a leveraged result then the risks are huge. I have a very profitable significant investment in IGG. Many unfortunate spread-betters practising this type of short-term trading have succeeded briefly then lost a lot and paid me large dividends over many years. :)

Sorry to disagree, but the current market is definitely not "a a huge opportunity to make a lot of money". To personally make a lot of money, you have to risk a lot of money*. To have made a million dollars in Tesla (with the shares doubling) over the last six months you would have had to risk a million dollars.

I could equally say that it would have been easier and quicker to bet on Lucky Jim in the 3.30 pm yesterday and at 100 to 1 you would have only had to risk 100,000 dollars - simples ;) .

regards

Howard

*Of course to really make money, it is better to risk other people's and become a broker or fund manager.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#279768

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2020, 6:08 pm

Hello Howard,

Let us say an investor has x capital, he/she invests in a utility and will be delighted if at the end of the year the share price appreciation plus dividend result in a capital plus asset of 1.1x, i.e. 10% over a year.

Alternatively an investors could put x/5 in Tesla 279 enter 562 price 1 year later, result 0.2x(562/279) = 0.47 x

x/5 apple 156 enter, after 1 year 320, 0.2x(320/156) = 0.41x

x/5 shop 163 enter, after 1year 469, 0.2x(469/163) = 0.58x

so from 3x/5 the investor now has (0.47+0.41+.58) = 1.46 x +0.4x = 1.86x

Anyone half decent at trading will make a lot more which is why half decent traders always out perform good investors.

We are in extraordinarily bullish markets, like we only see ever few decades.

If you catch the good stocks and exit during a strong bull market you can do very well.

Incidentally if you did this:

I could equally say that it would have been easier and quicker to bet on Lucky Jim in the 3.30 pm yesterday and at 100 to 1 you would have only had to risk 100,000 dollars - simples
with a 100k risked you would have 10 million

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#279794

Postby Howard » January 24th, 2020, 8:56 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Hello Howard,

Let us say an investor has x capital, he/she invests in a utility and will be delighted if at the end of the year the share price appreciation plus dividend result in a capital plus asset of 1.1x, i.e. 10% over a year.

Alternatively an investors could put x/5 in Tesla 279 enter 562 price 1 year later, result 0.2x(562/279) = 0.47 x

x/5 apple 156 enter, after 1 year 320, 0.2x(320/156) = 0.41x

x/5 shop 163 enter, after 1year 469, 0.2x(469/163) = 0.58x

so from 3x/5 the investor now has (0.47+0.41+.58) = 1.46 x +0.4x = 1.86x

Anyone half decent at trading will make a lot more which is why half decent traders always out perform good investors.

We are in extraordinarily bullish markets, like we only see ever few decades.

If you catch the good stocks and exit during a strong bull market you can do very well.

Incidentally if you did this:

I could equally say that it would have been easier and quicker to bet on Lucky Jim in the 3.30 pm yesterday and at 100 to 1 you would have only had to risk 100,000 dollars - simples
with a 100k risked you would have 10 million

Regards,


Yes, Ody, you are right my Lucky Jim strategy would have been 10 times as successful as I imagined. :lol: Why didn't I do it?

No doubt there are a few traders who are very successful. They are so rich that they'll have a Tesla S, wrapped in gold 8-) . (To match their R66 Robinson helicopter). I have a couple of wealthy neighbours a bit like that. They don't drive twenty year old diesel Mercs. And they make so much trading that they wouldn't waste time on Lemon Fool, they're either just on their way back from Davos or over in California hobnobbing with the likes of Elon Musk. ;)

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#279812

Postby odysseus2000 » January 25th, 2020, 12:08 am

No doubt there are a few traders who are very successful. They are so rich that they'll have a Tesla S, wrapped in gold 8-) . (To match their R66 Robinson helicopter). I have a couple of wealthy neighbours a bit like that. They don't drive twenty year old diesel Mercs. And they make so much trading that they wouldn't waste time on Lemon Fool, they're either just on their way back from Davos or over in California hobnobbing with the likes of Elon Musk. ;)

regards

Howard


Most prop desk activity is day trading. Indeed most prop traders are only allowed to run day trading accounts until they have proved themselves, but in general all the traders I have studied are predominantly focused on day trading for their main income because it is, with appropriate training, much safer than any other activity in the equity markets.

I appreciate that news media don't tell you this, but they are focused on retail punters as they are the only class of market participants who consume their output. Folk who trade full time for a living don't bother with retail media and don't post on forums like this.

Personally I have no interest in full time trading. The equity markets to me are a source of funds that I can tap for relatively limited amount of time spent in studying them so that I can get on with my various other passions. In all the years I have been doing this I have always minimised overheads as having e.g. new cars does nothing for me and I can use the capital that would otherwise be going to a lease company or a car seller to earn me money in various ways or be spent on my various projects. Most traders I know are intensely focused on what they do and don't do much else besides and can be boring as the markets are so much in their minds. As Henry Ford noted: "A business that just makes money is a poor business."

My approach to markets has evolved from investing to more trading through taking various courses and studying price action and seeing what has the best risk/reward and what approach best suits the internet connected deal only broker which is now commission free for most US brokers and some UK ones. Types of market behaviour that were suitable and profitable a few years ago are often no longer so and I find that I have to continually evolve my process and adjust for market conditions.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#279866

Postby BobbyD » January 25th, 2020, 11:37 am

dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:dspp

In your haste to decry all legacy car manufacturers :) you have neglected to answer my question about the 9 Guildford buses overloading the local grid. You may not know much about marketing cars ;) but, having read your posts on other threads, I do respect your views as an expert on power distribution. Is this indicative of a problem in supplying a concentration of BEVs? Or is it just a one-off issue affecting the local situation in Guildford.

regards

Howard


I've done some sums to understand generic bus fleets. I won't bore you with all the URL references. Your Guildford video https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business- ... o-electric .


In a similar vein VW roll out first 100kW chargers with built in 360kWh battery.

- https://ww.electrek.co/2020/01/24/vw-el ... ries/#aprd

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280247

Postby dspp » January 27th, 2020, 10:15 am

The current corona virus could cause upset to both production at the Shanghai factory, and distribution throughout China. Just something to bear in mind when looking at Q1 results in a few months. regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280300

Postby BobbyD » January 27th, 2020, 1:10 pm

Despite shrinking overall markets, the Volkswagen Group grew its worldwide deliveries by 1.3 percent to 10,974,600 vehicles in 2019. Market shares were expanded in all regions, in some cases significantly. Volume growth was achieved in Europe (+3.9 percent) and South America (+3.2 percent) while there were slight falls in North America (-0.5 percent) and Asia-Pacific (-0.4 percent). Strong growth was recorded with electric vehicles. As a re-sult of many new models within the framework of the Group’s electric offensive and grow-ing interest on the part of customers, there was a rise of around 80 percent to more than 140,000 vehicles.


- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... -2019-5723

The Volkswagen brand forged ahead with electrification in the year which has come to an end. Compared with the previous year, the number of electric vehicles delivered grew by about 60 percent to more than 80,000 units. More than half of these customers opted for an all-electric vehicle and the remainder chose a plug-in hybrid.

Once again, the most popular model was the e-Golf, with more than 35,000 units delivered.


- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... close-5720

The remaining 60,000 must be Audi and Porsche, as the other brands are just starting electrification projects.


- https://insideevs.com/news/394886/volks ... cars-2019/

That would be about 3% of Audis and Porsches, with a slew of further electrics and hybrids on the way. Given these companies are the source of both much money and much fleet CO2, it's nice to see them out ahead of the curve before the bottom end, hopefully, kicks in to gear with the e-Citigo, id.3 etc. If the posh boys take to electricity without complaint it bodes well for acceptability further down the range which would be one less bridge to worry about crossing.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280312

Postby BobbyD » January 27th, 2020, 2:03 pm

Porsche Taycan Turbo Crushes EPA Range Rating On Our 436-Mile Drive

We do 20% better than the EPA 201-mile range without even trying.

Pretty much every driving review of the Porsche Taycan, including our own, has been glowingly positive. It's been called everything from the best electric car today, to the best new Porsche you can buy.

...Had we been driving in 70-degree temperatures and no rain the range would have been even better. Even with the cold weather and rain, we averaged 2.96 miles per kWh over the 436-mile trip. If you multiply that consumption rate by the 83.7 usable capacity the Taycan Turbo has, you come up with 248-miles of range per charge. That's not bad, and much better than the EPA range rating of 201 miles per charge. The car's remaining range estimator was a little more conservative and if you add the miles driven with the estimated remaining range you get a trip average of 235 miles per charge, still way better than EPA.

...Also notable is the fact that the EPA provided the range figures themselves, and that's not how it usually happens. Many people don't realize that the manufacturer does the range testing and provides the EPA with the range rating and the data to back it up. The EPA has the choice to accept that data and publish it, or to then do their own internal testing. In the case of the Taycan, the EPA decided to do their own range certification, and those numbers came out much lower than what Porsche expected.

The EPA only does their own testing for about 10% - 15% of the EVs on the market today, the range figures for the remaining 85% - 90% were provided by the manufacturer. The EPA just doesn't have the resources to test every car, so they randomly pick some to test internally and the Taycan was chosen.



- https://insideevs.com/reviews/395038/po ... ile-range/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280318

Postby dspp » January 27th, 2020, 2:26 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Despite shrinking overall markets, the Volkswagen Group grew its worldwide deliveries by 1.3 percent to 10,974,600 vehicles in 2019. Market shares were expanded in all regions, in some cases significantly. Volume growth was achieved in Europe (+3.9 percent) and South America (+3.2 percent) while there were slight falls in North America (-0.5 percent) and Asia-Pacific (-0.4 percent). Strong growth was recorded with electric vehicles. As a re-sult of many new models within the framework of the Group’s electric offensive and grow-ing interest on the part of customers, there was a rise of around 80 percent to more than 140,000 vehicles.


- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... -2019-5723

The Volkswagen brand forged ahead with electrification in the year which has come to an end. Compared with the previous year, the number of electric vehicles delivered grew by about 60 percent to more than 80,000 units. More than half of these customers opted for an all-electric vehicle and the remainder chose a plug-in hybrid.

Once again, the most popular model was the e-Golf, with more than 35,000 units delivered.


- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... close-5720

The remaining 60,000 must be Audi and Porsche, as the other brands are just starting electrification projects.


- https://insideevs.com/news/394886/volks ... cars-2019/

That would be about 3% of Audis and Porsches, with a slew of further electrics and hybrids on the way. Given these companies are the source of both much money and much fleet CO2, it's nice to see them out ahead of the curve before the bottom end, hopefully, kicks in to gear with the e-Citigo, id.3 etc. If the posh boys take to electricity without complaint it bodes well for acceptability further down the range which would be one less bridge to worry about crossing.


BD,

1. Thanks.
2. So in 2019 year VAG group did 140k 'electric' vehicles, of which about 35k were full-electric BEV and about 105k were actually hybrids with as little electrickery inside them as they could get away with and still euphemistically refer to them as being "electric vehicles".
3. In contrast in 2019 Tesla did 367,375 full-fat BEVs.

regards, dspp


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