Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

From all that I have seen, Tesla are possibly safe on dual carriageway highways, but they will be hopeless in narrow country lanes. In our narrow lane, human drivers are able to take it in turns to get past parked cars, in the face of oncoming traffic. Two cars in FSD mode would never be able to sort the problem out. Some aspects of human judgements and politeness are probably beyond the capability of AI.

This should actually be easier for cars which aren't obsessed with vision only than it is for humans. Vehicle to vehicle communication can already warn you about suitably equipped cars which are sat stationary the other side of a corner or emergency vehicles which are coming your way. Suitably equipped cars in this situation would know how many cars are on either side, the distribution of passing opportunities etc. Then all you need is a little cold, clinical machine cooperation and much like traffic filtering down to empty a closed lane a much more efficient resolution should be at hand than if it is left to humans.

I don't think even lidar can look round bends.

TJH

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY_NL_Hmvxs

Consistently connected and Car2X as standard

The systems have not only been linked to each other, but thanks to an online connectivity unit (OCU), they have also been connected to the world outside the Golf. The standard OCU featuring integrated eSIM links to “We Connect” and “We Connect Plus” online functions and services. The new Golf is also the first Volkswagen to connect with its environment as standard, via Car2X: signals from the traffic infrastructure and information from other vehicles up to 800 metres away are notified to the driver via a display. The Golf also shares these warnings with other Car2X models. Swarm intelligence is becoming a reality, representing the beginning of a new phase of traffic safety.

- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... igent-5490

[odysseus2000]

There are many youtube demonstrations of synchronous drone flying, but this example shows model cars driving synchronously:

https://youtu.be/gHdv6G7AZgo

No doubt this could be done with real cars.

Regards,

[Howard]

I wonder if human driving is about luck too, or to be more scientific, is about the roads and cars being designed to make the probability of not having an accident high and the probability of having an accident low.

Clearly with 10 deaths and/or serious injuries per day in the UK the "high" is not high enough and the "low" is not low enough.

However, if you remove human emotion and human distraction and train the car to behave sensibly you probably make "high" higher and "low" lower without having to have all the other sensors with their higher resolution and cost.

If this thinking is correct then it comes down to questions like, can the AI read "Road Closed" and act appropriately? Can the AI tell the difference between a reflection and a traffic light? These seem tractable problems for AI.

In these terms it seems likely to me that Tesla will soon become much safer than human drivers.

One can argue that if Tesla do become good enough, they will still fail due to other drivers being distracted, driving under the influence of prohibited chemicals etc. This will almost certainly happen, but humans are likely no better at dealing with a driver in such circumstances that is an AI. One then moves to the potential for politicians to outlaw human driving and/or restrict it significantly. There are huge human implications and financial loss from every accident and at some point it may become unacceptable to have human drivers when distraction and emotion free AI is available at low cost.

Regards,

From all that I have seen, Tesla are possibly safe on dual carriageway highways, but they will be hopeless in narrow country lanes. In our narrow lane, human drivers are able to take it in turns to get past parked cars, in the face of oncoming traffic. Two cars in FSD mode would never be able to sort the problem out. Some aspects of human judgements and politeness are probably beyond the capability of AI.

There was a fatal accident near us last week. A young occupant lost his life when his car hit a tree in a single vehicle accident. Obviously lost control at high speed in a 30-limit area. One assumes that this could not happen with a self-driving system. If he had encountered a car overtaking another as they came round the bend, with no escape route, nothing would have saved him. I don't think even lidar can look round bends.

TJH

My experience of driving a new Tesla is that it could not "see" a problem on a motorway more than about 250 yards ahead. A broken down car with hazards flashing, blocking part of the slow lane was obvious to drivers, probably a mile ahead as visibility was excellent. As a driver, one had plenty of time to check that there was a gap in the next lane and to plan moving over. Out of interest I waited for the car to react and at 65 - 70 mph it was dangerously close before car "saw" the obstacle. By this time I had planned the lane move and was ready to manually steer the car.

regards

Howard

[onthemove]

From all that I have seen, Tesla are possibly safe on dual carriageway highways, but they will be hopeless in narrow country lanes. In our narrow lane, human drivers are able to take it in turns to get past parked cars, in the face of oncoming traffic. Two cars in FSD mode would never be able to sort the problem out. Some aspects of human judgements and politeness are probably beyond the capability of AI.

You mean something like this (Waymo rather than Tesla) : https://youtu.be/2CVInKMz9cA?t=10

Not quite there yet Tesla, but still not bad ... https://youtu.be/i8qVLmflQjs?t=1158

But ultimately, I don't see why this would be an issue for self driving cars. The videos above shows how it can plan a path. And if there isn't room to plan such a path, then it can resort to good old fashioned deadlock recovery algorithms... if deadlock detected, simply back out. Or in the case of a self driving car, reverse after a random interval. (The reason a random interval is used is, because like you suggest, you could get an identical self driving car coming the other way... if both reversed at the same time, you'd end up stuck in a loop or each backing out, then retrying again. But this is easily resolved by using a random variation in the time waited before accepting the road is blocked and reversing... then as the car reverses it can watch if the oncoming car proceeds to move forwards... if it does, the reversing car can reverse to a point where the oncoming car has room to pass... on the other hand, if the oncoming car remains where it is, then the reversing car can assume the road is blocked, reverse to a suitable point to turn around, and then find another route)

There really isn't anything difficult about the general algorithm - it doesn't really require any 'artificial intelligence', it's something that can be programmed in 'regular' rules at the high level planner / routing.

The real difficulty arises if the cars that are meeting each other, are then blocked in by cars which are behind them. But similar to humans, it's pretty easy to nudge the car back as an indication to the car behind that you're going to have to reverse. If neither the car behind, nor the car behind the oncoming car, will reverse, then you've got a deadlock. But you'd have that anyway with human drivers.

If anything, self driving cars aren't going to let their ego get in the way and just stand their ground refusing to reverse, the way some human drivers do when they think the oncoming car is at fault.

All in all, without the rage rage inducing ego, I'd expect that self driving cars will deal with oncoming traffic on single track roads better than humans.

If he had encountered a car overtaking another as they came round the bend, with no escape route, nothing would have saved him. I don't think even lidar can look round bends.

I would expect that self driving cars will largely follow the general heuristic that people follow - always drive at a speed that means you can stop in the distance that you can see to be safe.

Obviously if the oncoming car isn't doing that and flies round the corner at far too high a speed, like you say, there's nothing anything - human or autonomous could do to prevent or predict that.

But the self driving car would quite likely have the advantage of faster reaction times to hit the brakes... likely wouldn't prevent an accident, but could marginally reduce the impact force.

Hardly high speed, but this does show the Tesla reacting to an oncoming car round a blind corner.... and driver at a suitable speed that enabled it to stop in time...

https://youtu.be/zOc8sfeV1gM?t=16

[tjh290633]

If he had encountered a car overtaking another as they came round the bend, with no escape route, nothing would have saved him. I don't think even lidar can look round bends.

I would expect that self driving cars will largely follow the general heuristic that people follow - always drive at a speed that means you can stop in the distance that you can see to be safe.

That distance can suddenly reduce to a negative figure in some circumstances.

TJH

[onthemove]

I don't think even lidar can look round bends.

You sure?

"Researchers have harnessed the power of a type of artificial intelligence known as deep learning to create a new laser-based system that can image around corners in real time. With further development, the system might let self-driving cars “look” around parked cars or busy intersections to see hazards or pedestrians.. .... “These attributes enable applications that wouldn’t otherwise be possible, such as reading the license plate of a hidden car as it is driving or reading a badge worn by someone walking on the other side of a corner.” .... https://scitechdaily.com/artificial-int ... real-time/ "

If he had encountered a car overtaking another as they came round the bend, with no escape route, nothing would have saved him. I don't think even lidar can look round bends.

I would expect that self driving cars will largely follow the general heuristic that people follow - always drive at a speed that means you can stop in the distance that you can see to be safe.

That distance can suddenly reduce to a negative figure in some circumstances.

TJH

As I acknowledge in the next paragraph which you haven't included. But this would be just the same for humans as self driving vehicles.

In those circumstances, all the driver (human or otherwise) has available, is to hit the brakes and reduce the force of the crash.

Autonomous cars should have the advantage of always paying attention combined with likely faster reactions.

But I don't see any argument here against self driving cars, nor that self driving cars should be any worse in these situations.

Footnote:

I don't believe that this sort of thing will be integrated into first generation (public) releases of full self driving, but these are some of the things now being done with AI in the laboratory...

"Abstract
We recover a video of the motion taking place in a hidden scene by observing
changes in indirect illumination in a nearby uncalibrated visible region.
..
6 Discussion and Conclusions
We have shown that cluttered scenes can be computationally turned into low-resolution mirrors
without prior calibration. Given a single input video of the visible scene, we can recover a latent
video of the hidden scene as well as a light transport matrix ...
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.02314.pdf "

A video of their work... https://youtu.be/hhEJMpouMS8?t=41 ... at the time the clip should start, the video on the left is what the camera can see; the video in the middle is the hidden scene; the video on the right hand side is what the AI has extracted from the video on the left.

Do you think you could estimate what was going on in the hidden scene from that video on the left?

I think most humans can guess what something might be from the outline of a shadow... I mean, we've all seen shadow puppets ... but that research is potentially going a step further... I certainly couldn't have remotely guessed at what the computer was able to extract from that video at the point I link above. The computer isn't perfect by a long shot, but it's done a heck of a better job than I could!

[BobbyD]

Footnote:

I don't believe that this sort of thing will be integrated into first generation (public) releases of full self driving, but these are some of the things now being done with AI in the laboratory...

Assuming FSD is a specifically Tesla based reference I think there is a lower than zero percent chance of that happening. Given that the system was recently confusing an in shot sun with an amber traffic signal inferring what is out of shot seems a touch hopeful.

It isn't something I would expect to see anywhere else in the near to medium term future either (just a flat zero percent chance). This could potentially, and eventually, end up being a powerful technology in many systems including AD, but given the aim is to replace a human driver not replicate one there are easier and more dramatic wins available using existing technology, already fitted in mainstream cars today, such as telepathy or '5G' as the wonks call it.

[BobbyD]

Hertz did not get a discount on the 100,000 cars it ordered:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/145 ... 27625?s=20

Regards,

Hertz hasn't actually bought 100,000 Teslas...

Tesla Inc. is poised to give back some of its more than $300 billion gain since Hertz Global Holdings Inc. announced a massive order for its electric vehicles, after Elon Musk cast doubt on the deal and downplayed its potential.

The Model 3 maker hasn’t signed a contract yet with Hertz, the chief executive officer wrote in a tweet responding to a fan club account that thanked the world’s richest person for Monday’s gain in Tesla shares. Musk also said that because Tesla has demand for more vehicles than it can produce, the deal with Hertz “has zero effect on our economics.”

- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... esla-chart

[BobbyD]

WASHINGTON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc is recalling nearly 12,000 U.S. vehicles sold since 2017 because a communication error may cause a false forward-collision warning or unexpected activation of the emergency brakes, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said Tuesday.

The California automaker said the recall of 11,704 Model S, X, 3 and Y vehicles was prompted after a software update on Oct. 23 to vehicles in its limited early access version 10.3 Full-Self Driving (FSD) (Beta) population.

FSD is an advanced driver assistance system that handles some driving tasks but Tesla says does not make vehicles autonomous.

NHTSA said Tesla "uninstalled FSD 10.3 after receiving reports of inadvertent activation of the automatic emergency braking system" and then "updated the software and released FSD version 10.3.1 to those vehicles affected."

- https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 021-11-02/

[odysseus2000]

Hertz did not get a discount on the 100,000 cars it ordered:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/145 ... 27625?s=20

Regards,

Hertz hasn't actually bought 100,000 Teslas...

Tesla Inc. is poised to give back some of its more than $300 billion gain since Hertz Global Holdings Inc. announced a massive order for its electric vehicles, after Elon Musk cast doubt on the deal and downplayed its potential.

The Model 3 maker hasn’t signed a contract yet with Hertz, the chief executive officer wrote in a tweet responding to a fan club account that thanked the world’s richest person for Monday’s gain in Tesla shares. Musk also said that because Tesla has demand for more vehicles than it can produce, the deal with Hertz “has zero effect on our economics.”

- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... esla-chart

Hertz can not buy what isn't available. They can only put in an order for future delivery and such things can be cancelled. However, if Hertz wants electric cars it has no alternative than source them from Tesla.

The hidden blessing of the Hertz deal is marketing. Folk who hire a Tesla from Hertz put their bums on its seats and if they like it, this is a powerful influence on their next car.

Regards,

[onthemove]

However, if Hertz wants electric cars it has no alternative than source them from Tesla.

They haven't signed a contract yet - that's what Musk is now saying.

So Hertz are still free to buy electric cars from whoever they like.

[BobbyD]

However, if Hertz wants electric cars it has no alternative than source them from Tesla.

They haven't signed a contract yet - that's what Musk is now saying.

So Hertz are still free to buy electric cars from whoever they like.

It's perfectly possible to sign a binding order for future delivery, Hertz haven't.

[BobbyD]

With 2 days left in the month the sales race in Norway is hotting up:

Audi Etron GT: 46

Tesla: 55

Final score Tesla 56 - E-tron GT 46.

[odysseus2000]

However, if Hertz wants electric cars it has no alternative than source them from Tesla.

They haven't signed a contract yet - that's what Musk is now saying.

So Hertz are still free to buy electric cars from whoever they like.

It's perfectly possible to sign a binding order for future delivery, Hertz haven't.

Sure it is, but who in their right mind does it?

Regards,

[BobbyD]

They haven't signed a contract yet - that's what Musk is now saying.

So Hertz are still free to buy electric cars from whoever they like.

It's perfectly possible to sign a binding order for future delivery, Hertz haven't.

Sure it is, but who in their right mind does it?

Regards,

Every company with a supply chain, including Tesla?

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
Every company with a supply chain, including Tesla?

There is a huge difference between components, raw materials and finished goods.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
Every company with a supply chain, including Tesla?

There is a huge difference between components, raw materials and finished goods.

Regards,

Well then don't ask silly questions.

If they actually want 100,000 cars and they want to lock in the price and the delivery date, with established penalties for non-performance a binding contract makes perfect sense for Hertz.

The problem is even Tesla are probably aware of their complete inability to turn out a consistent product for long enough to complete the order, to handle an order that size or to recognise let alone stick to a calendar so they would be insane to sign such a binding contract.

[BobbyD]

Elon Musk, Missy Cummings To Testify In Fatal Tesla Autopilot Crash Trial

The victim's family hired Cummings. Musk's attorneys may argue that he shouldn't be called as a witness.

- https://insideevs.com/news/545233/musk- ... lot-trial/

Cummings for those who haven't been enjoying the ire of the Teslarati in recent weeks is a Senior advisor to the NHTSA appointed on the tenuous grounds that she is a Professor of Engineering at Duke whose research interests cover such unrelated subjects as

Human-unmanned vehicle interaction, human-autonomous system collaboration, human-systems engineering, public policy implications of unmanned vehicles, and the ethical and social impact of technology.

- https://pratt.duke.edu/faculty/missy-cummings

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
Every company with a supply chain, including Tesla?

There is a huge difference between components, raw materials and finished goods.

Regards,

Well then don't ask silly questions.

If they actually want 100,000 cars and they want to lock in the price and the delivery date, with established penalties for non-performance a binding contract makes perfect sense for Hertz.

The problem is even Tesla are probably aware of their complete inability to turn out a consistent product for long enough to complete the order, to handle an order that size or to recognise let alone stick to a calendar so they would be insane to sign such a binding contract.

It is amusing to me how things that may have applied a few years ago are carried forward to the present. I can see why a shareholder of a competitor may dream of such things, but outside of dream worlds it ain't so.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Elon Musk, Missy Cummings To Testify In Fatal Tesla Autopilot Crash Trial

The victim's family hired Cummings. Musk's attorneys may argue that he shouldn't be called as a witness.

- https://insideevs.com/news/545233/musk- ... lot-trial/

Cummings for those who haven't been enjoying the ire of the Teslarati in recent weeks is a Senior advisor to the NHTSA appointed on the tenuous grounds that she is a Professor of Engineering at Duke whose research interests cover such unrelated subjects as

Human-unmanned vehicle interaction, human-autonomous system collaboration, human-systems engineering, public policy implications of unmanned vehicles, and the ethical and social impact of technology.

- https://pratt.duke.edu/faculty/missy-cummings

No, this is a misunderstanding of how the US legal system works.

Musk's attorney is merely lighting up Cummings as a vested interest. Assuming this is a jury trial, the jurors will be selected on not having heard the comments of Musk's attorney. However, in the media, should the trial go against, Musk then the attorney has already set up in the media that at least one of the witnesses was biased as clearly shown in Cummings tweets, now deleted, being strongly against Tesla and autopilot.

Regards,