Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Interesting review of a Chinese BEV that sells for £7k:

https://youtu.be/QkIarb-8Ot8

The reviewer is very like the folk who used to evangelise things like the Fiat 850, everything one needs in a car, runs on the fumes of an oily rag, easy to park, etc etc, but they did not sell in huge volumes. Maybe times have changed & this kind of electric shopping trolley will now become very popular as was the original mini, but I wonder if it is just too small, too lacking in crash protection to appeal to a typical uk motorist, but with home working having grown hugely due to c19, uk vacations still not possible for many, perhaps the uk market has changed.

If nothing else it gives an idea what the city Honda BEV will have to compete with suggesting to me that the sub-compact market is going to be extremely competive which is great for the consumer, but for the makers...

Regards,

[dspp]

Interesting review of a Chinese BEV that sells for £7k:

https://youtu.be/QkIarb-8Ot8

The reviewer is very like the folk who used to evangelise things like the Fiat 850, everything one needs in a car, runs on the fumes of an oily rag, easy to park, etc etc, but they did not sell in huge volumes. Maybe times have changed & this kind of electric shopping trolley will now become very popular as was the original mini, but I wonder if it is just too small, too lacking in crash protection to appeal to a typical uk motorist, but with home working having grown hugely due to c19, uk vacations still not possible for many, perhaps the uk market has changed.

If nothing else it gives an idea what the city Honda BEV will have to compete with suggesting to me that the sub-compact market is going to be extremely competive which is great for the consumer, but for the makers...

Regards,

In a 2-car household this would likely be absolutely fine. Or a 1-car household for most use cases. I fully expect something like that on my driveway within 10-years.

regards, dspp

[Howard]

Interesting review of a Chinese BEV that sells for £7k:

https://youtu.be/QkIarb-8Ot8

The reviewer is very like the folk who used to evangelise things like the Fiat 850, everything one needs in a car, runs on the fumes of an oily rag, easy to park, etc etc, but they did not sell in huge volumes. Maybe times have changed & this kind of electric shopping trolley will now become very popular as was the original mini, but I wonder if it is just too small, too lacking in crash protection to appeal to a typical uk motorist, but with home working having grown hugely due to c19, uk vacations still not possible for many, perhaps the uk market has changed.

If nothing else it gives an idea what the city Honda BEV will have to compete with suggesting to me that the sub-compact market is going to be extremely competive which is great for the consumer, but for the makers...

Regards,

Ody

What a brilliant car review! The reviewer makes some much needed common sense comments.

Few motorists would have any worries about the depreciation costs of a £7,000 car!

If a BEV manufacturer can make a few modest refinements to a car like that and offer it in the UK for around double the price it will surely sell in volumes. Just like the Mini did in the sixties. £15k, quick charging, fun to drive and a range of 200 miles. I guess the demand would be huge. It probably wouldn't need any government subsidies!

As you suggest, it may need work to achieve UK safety standards and achieve the reliability of a typical hatchback. But as a town car/runabout even for £15k it looks unbeatable.

The reviewers' comments about Teslas were interesting . He appears to know what he is talking about .

This begs the question: what could this breed of manufacturer offer for a budget of £25k? A Golf/ID3 rival without any unnecessary fancy software?

regards

Howard

[dspp]

Interesting review of a Chinese BEV that sells for £7k:

https://youtu.be/QkIarb-8Ot8

The reviewer is very like the folk who used to evangelise things like the Fiat 850, everything one needs in a car, runs on the fumes of an oily rag, easy to park, etc etc, but they did not sell in huge volumes. Maybe times have changed & this kind of electric shopping trolley will now become very popular as was the original mini, but I wonder if it is just too small, too lacking in crash protection to appeal to a typical uk motorist, but with home working having grown hugely due to c19, uk vacations still not possible for many, perhaps the uk market has changed.

If nothing else it gives an idea what the city Honda BEV will have to compete with suggesting to me that the sub-compact market is going to be extremely competive which is great for the consumer, but for the makers...

Regards,

Ody

What a brilliant car review! The reviewer makes some much needed common sense comments.

Few motorists would have any worries about the depreciation costs of a £7,000 car!

If a BEV manufacturer can make a few modest refinements to a car like that and offer it in the UK for around double the price it will surely sell in volumes. Just like the Mini did in the sixties. £15k, quick charging, fun to drive and a range of 200 miles. I guess the demand would be huge. It probably wouldn't need any government subsidies!

As you suggest, it may need work to achieve UK safety standards and achieve the reliability of a typical hatchback. But as a town car/runabout even for £15k it looks unbeatable.

The reviewers' comments about Teslas were interesting . He appears to know what he is talking about .

This begs the question: what could this breed of manufacturer offer for a budget of £25k? A Golf/ID3 rival without any unnecessary fancy software?

regards

Howard

For £25k you get the Tesla model 2. What you are looking at here is the reason why Tesla will not rush to make a Tesla model 1.

I rather suspect that already meets UK/EU homologation standards. All that is required is local manufacturing industry in the UK to be capable of (designing it) & making it .....

regards, dspp

[Howard]

Of course a Mini Electric is available now for under £25k after the government grant.

But with a range of only 100 miles or slightly more. Of course with a small battery it takes less than 30 minutes to put in a reasonable charge from a fast charger and it is easy to charge at home. Most owners with off road parking will probably just use a 13 amp plug to charge it overnight.

If BMW can increase the Mini range by 50% it may just be as attractive as it was in the 60s? Reviewers seem to like the driving experience.

And from what we know of BMW, they may already be making a profit selling the Mini E.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Of course a Mini Electric is available now for under £25k after the government grant.

But with a range of only 100 miles or slightly more. Of course with a small battery it takes less than 30 minutes to put in a reasonable charge from a fast charger and it is easy to charge at home. Most owners with off road parking will probably just use a 13 amp plug to charge it overnight.

If BMW can increase the Mini range by 50% it may just be as attractive as it was in the 60s? Reviewers seem to like the driving experience.

And from what we know of BMW, they may already be making a profit selling the Mini E.

regards

Howard

This video is a very bullish prediction of what they believe will be a Tesla, model C, priced at around $20k, designed & built in China. The compact & sub compact market is about 30% of new sales, so there is a potential market here & Musk in the video talks about wanting something unique which could be an exoskeleton like the Cyber truck, but whether the battery costs can be got down enough to make this profitable is unclear to me. The robo taxi case suggesting that a car at 50% utilisation would pay for itself in 1 year would be nice if it can be done.

https://youtu.be/KpAlCYgib8o

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla ratchet up solar roof selling with price guarantees and promises:

https://www.tesla.com/es_MX/blog/lowest ... edirect=no

It will be interesting to see if all of Tesla's business become industry leaders. If Tesla can dominate BEV, Storage, Roof top solar, Robotic driving, insurance, car to grid... it becomes hard to argue that the current share price reflects this and that it is far too low, despite the CEO tweets that Tesla stock price is too high. On the other hand if they fail in all these endeavours the share price is way too high.

The most encouraging thing to me is that very many people are very bearish, some at too personal a level such as some big hedge funds and some of the Seeking Alpha posters, and that I still meet people as I did yesterday who told me that a 2 litre diesel engine was the future for personal transport. The more bears the better from a Tesla longs perspective.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

German government plans to build 1000 Tesla style super charger charging stations:

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmani ... um=twitter

PM et tu?

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Mildly interesting short video on battery tech, arguing current batteries are no where near the limit of what might be possible:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orTfOZPs8WQ

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Interesting video describing the economics of solar and model 3 in California:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-UqneOYQaY

The situation in the UK will be different, but probably not as different as one might simply expect since solar panel efficency decreases with temperature. For anyone concerned about the environment with some capital, the arguments for a BEV, Solar and Storage are strong.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla coming to the utility market and as with BEV most of the population hasn't a clue and believes it is not significant. Imho this will prove to be a spectacular business for Tesla and a disaster for legacy utility and I expect many more entrants, my only concern is how well legacy will lobby the politicians to keep the new entrants out:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-energy- ... -industry/

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla tentatively moves Battery day and Share holder meeting to the 15th of September and notes this will include a tour of the cell production facility:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/127 ... 44097?s=20

It will be interesting if we get some firm numbers on cell capacity and cost and their thoughts on battery packs and costs, but traditionally they have been very limited on the numbers.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Pre-orders for Cyber truck are estimated at over 650k:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3585157-c ... ent=link-3

Talking to a few BEV enthusiasts, I get the impression that this is the vehicle they want, so it will be interesting to see when it comes out and what demand is like then. On the Rogan pod cast, Musk said that the Cyber truck will come out before the new sports car.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

If the prices and returns in this video are correct, solar roofs soon become profitable, even if you rent off Tesla:

https://youtu.be/MbC4C92i3qk

The economics, if true, suggest every house is going to have solar which would be a huge opportunity for Tesla.

Regards,

[Howard]

It seems, even Fred Lambert of Electrek, one of Tesla's strongest supporters is critical of Tesla's inability to launch cars without quality problems.

He has written:

"I am aware of how hard production ramps are and I was holding off on reporting about the quality issues when it was only about paint, trims and other cosmetic problems, but now the backseat and seat belt issues are just another level and I had to report. Some of [the] cars Tesla is attempting to deliver are just in ridiculous conditions that should have never made it to customers. I hear Tesla is catching some before delivery, but too many are making their way to customers and I have to think end of quarter has something to do with it..."

Some of us critics have always thought the Y might suffer from a much lower demand than projected. This situation reminds me of the poor quality of the Model 3 deliveries in Germany last year, which must be one of the reasons that sales have not been significant in that market. To sell cars at high prices to discerning customers isn't easy as Tesla is finding out in most markets apart from California.

It will be interesting to see if Tesla is meeting its sales forecast for 2020 at the beginning of the Covid crisis. Sales of 500,000 cars will be tough to achieve.

regards

Howard

Tesla: Quality Issues And Soft Demand Plague Model Y Rollout

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435529 ... ent=link-0

[odysseus2000]

This is a very interesting bullish article on Tesla and V2G (Vehilce to Grid) with the author suggesting substantial financial returns from owning a Tesla that can supply V2G (and that is most of them) will be very substantial for the owner and for Tesla. If the article is right and I can't see flaws in the logic then Tesla equity is extremely cheap. The new potential earnings stream from V2G changes the whole dynamics of the auto market, even if robotic driving never happens:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435564 ... ent=link-2

Regards,

[dealtn]

This is a very interesting bullish article on Tesla and V2G (Vehilce to Grid) with the author suggesting substantial financial returns from owning a Tesla that can supply V2G (and that is most of them) will be very substantial for the owner and for Tesla. If the article is right and I can't see flaws in the logic then Tesla equity is extremely cheap. The new potential earnings stream from V2G changes the whole dynamics of the auto market, even if robotic driving never happens:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435564 ... ent=link-2

Regards,

Ok I admit I don't get it. So in simple language how are you using your car to "earn" £s ?

[odysseus2000]

This is a very interesting bullish article on Tesla and V2G (Vehilce to Grid) with the author suggesting substantial financial returns from owning a Tesla that can supply V2G (and that is most of them) will be very substantial for the owner and for Tesla. If the article is right and I can't see flaws in the logic then Tesla equity is extremely cheap. The new potential earnings stream from V2G changes the whole dynamics of the auto market, even if robotic driving never happens:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435564 ... ent=link-2

Regards,

Ok I admit I don't get it. So in simple language how are you using your car to "earn" £s ?

Your Tesla becomes a virtual power station.

You charge it when the prices are low and then you sell that electric back to the grid when prices are high.

If for example you have 1 million Tesla, each supplying 1 kWh, then the grid gets 1 giga Watt hour of power and the owner of the Tesla is paid the peak power price while having paid the low power price such as over night, or got the power from a solar roof for no additional cost beyond the price of the solar roof.

The new factor over the selling of excess solar power, is that the Tesla batteries act as storage, a system very similar to the hydro pump schemes were over night power is used to pump water up a hill and then when power is expensive, the water comes down the hill and generates power.

Regards,

[dealtn]

This is a very interesting bullish article on Tesla and V2G (Vehilce to Grid) with the author suggesting substantial financial returns from owning a Tesla that can supply V2G (and that is most of them) will be very substantial for the owner and for Tesla. If the article is right and I can't see flaws in the logic then Tesla equity is extremely cheap. The new potential earnings stream from V2G changes the whole dynamics of the auto market, even if robotic driving never happens:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435564 ... ent=link-2

Regards,

Ok I admit I don't get it. So in simple language how are you using your car to "earn" £s ?

Your Tesla becomes a virtual power station.

You charge it when the prices are low and then you sell that electric back to the grid when prices are high.

If for example you have 1 million Tesla, each supplying 1 kWh, then the grid gets 1 giga Watt hour of power and the owner of the Tesla is paid the peak power price while having paid the low power price such as over night, or got the power from a solar roof for no additional cost beyond the price of the solar roof.

The new factor over the selling of excess solar power, is that the Tesla batteries act as storage, a system very similar to the hydro pump schemes were over night power is used to pump water up a hill and then when power is expensive, the water comes down the hill and generates power.

Regards,

Ok I get that on occasions power is cheap, and on others it is more expensive. But if this "free arbitrage" existed in practice then it would be eroded away surely? At the moment when there are few cars to utilise this I can see how it would work, but scaling up to a million and beyond?

Who is supplying this cheap "power" to all the potential Tesla battery owners, and what is stopping them from keeping it themselves? Is there some kind of law/policy in place? I can understand how if you don't have a storage facility that it is better to sell at pennies than to lose it all, as that's a marginal gain, but why not create storage capacity? At it's extreme why not buy a million Teslas! You can store the "cheap" and sell the "expensive" yourself, why give all the profit to the car owners if it is such a profitable business opportunity.

All genuine question by the way.

[dspp]

Ok I admit I don't get it. So in simple language how are you using your car to "earn" £s ?

Your Tesla becomes a virtual power station.

You charge it when the prices are low and then you sell that electric back to the grid when prices are high.

If for example you have 1 million Tesla, each supplying 1 kWh, then the grid gets 1 giga Watt hour of power and the owner of the Tesla is paid the peak power price while having paid the low power price such as over night, or got the power from a solar roof for no additional cost beyond the price of the solar roof.

The new factor over the selling of excess solar power, is that the Tesla batteries act as storage, a system very similar to the hydro pump schemes were over night power is used to pump water up a hill and then when power is expensive, the water comes down the hill and generates power.

Regards,

Ok I get that on occasions power is cheap, and on others it is more expensive. But if this "free arbitrage" existed in practice then it would be eroded away surely? At the moment when there are few cars to utilise this I can see how it would work, but scaling up to a million and beyond?

Who is supplying this cheap "power" to all the potential Tesla battery owners, and what is stopping them from keeping it themselves? Is there some kind of law/policy in place? I can understand how if you don't have a storage facility that it is better to sell at pennies than to lose it all, as that's a marginal gain, but why not create storage capacity? At it's extreme why not buy a million Teslas! You can store the "cheap" and sell the "expensive" yourself, why give all the profit to the car owners if it is such a profitable business opportunity.

All genuine question by the way.

Physics is the answer. Store power when wind/solar surplus exists. Sell when not. regards, dspp