Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Wow! What an amazing day for Tesla equity: +$70.46 (6.98 %) to a new closing high of $1079.81

Folk are, at least for the moment, looking beyond the c19 pandemic and liking the powerful macro tide that is sweeping away ICE and replacing it with BEV.

This is remarkable given that the Tesla US California plant was shut by the pandemic for a good part of the quarter and a relentless series of critical reviews by various auto commentators, but these negatives were set against the political will to clean the air and move to sustainable energy and transportation and the latter won.

The stock ipo'ed 10 years ago at $17 and has grown by over 5600%, an average of 45% per year:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla- ... 1593437846

History classes in years to come will teach about the transition from ICE to BEV just as we were all taught about the transition from horse power to steam power.

In 1712, Newcomen invented the first steam engine and slowly the UK mechanised, although not all people like it and in 1813, 14 Luddites were hanged in Manchester. In 1825 the first railway carrying passengers behind a steam engine opened, 113 years after Newcomen's invention.

https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/H ... evolution/

Some argue that the transition to BEV was much faster, but the exponential growth we are seeing now is after a very long tail.

The first crude electric vehicle was created in 1828, but more practical electric cars did not exist until the 1870's. By 1899 electric cars such as those made by Baker were very popular and in the period 1900 to 1912, 1/3 of all cars were electric:

https://www.energy.gov/timeline/timelin ... ectric-car

The first Tesla was launched in 2006.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Cathay Wood on the new competition to Tesla & various Aspects of their investment approach:

https://youtu.be/5tdr89cf4dQ

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Musk congratulates employees:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/elon-mu ... ter%7Cmain

This is being taken as an indication that Tesla beat expectations for deliveries. The number is predicted to print after the close tonight.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla large beat in q2 deliveries, stock soars:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/tesla-t ... mbers.html

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla impact report.

This is quite a big document, but is worth a look for anyone who argues that BEV are dirtier than ICE. Hint: It ain't so!

https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2019-te ... report.pdf

Regards,

[dspp]

Tesla large beat in q2 deliveries, stock soars:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/tesla-t ... mbers.html

Regards,

Q1: Produced 102,672 / Delivered 88,496
Q2: Produced 82,272 / Delivered 90,650

In Q1 they made a $.08/share profit on the delivered vehicles. To achieve higher deliveries in Q2 they've shifted some of the stock that was beginning to pile up at the end of Q1 (which was a mere 20 days of sales, a lot less than the more typical 90+ common in the industry). Provided they kept costs under control they ought to have made a profit in Q2, especially if they are releasing more of the FSD to the bottom line. If so then S&P 500 inclusion ought to be automatic. And they did this with Fremont shut for much of the quarter. Well done.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

An amazing few days for Tesla and US secular growth equity which has been exceptionally strong.

Normally I expect a lull going into the 4th vacation, but not this year, perhaps the big boys have cancelled their trips to Martha's vineyard and stayed at their desks.

No idea whether this rally continues and so I went to over 80% cash with no Tesla left on my books, hoping to re-buy a little lower, but I might not get the opportunity.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Giga Berlin will not manufacture batteries or plastic parts:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3588423-t ... ent=link-3

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Interesting article were the author lists many of the advantages of Tesla, knows the short side is dangerous, but can't bring himself to buy the stock, ensuring he must miss out on all the potential upside:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435678 ... ent=link-0

The more folk imho who believe him the better as far as longs are concerned.

Regard,

[richfool]

This is the view on the HL website (extracts from the full article on Tesla):

Nicholas Hyett, Equity Analyst | 2 July 2020 | A A A

Tesla - production and deliveries beat expectations

Tesla produced 82,272 vehicles in the second quarter, with 90,650 deliveries. That included Model S/X production of 6,326 with deliveries of 10,600, and Model 3/Y production of 75,946 with 80,050 deliveries.

Deliveries were well ahead of analyst expectations of a little over 70,000. Production was also ahead despite the Fremont factory being closed for a large chunk of the quarter due to coronavirus.

Our View

Tesla started 2020 with a bang. First quarter production and deliveries soared, and putting more cars through the machine boosted margins and meant the group turned in a profitable first quarter for the first time ever.

Despite a fantastic brand, formidable manufacturing capabilities and fabulous product, the group needs to rapidly expand its customer base if it's to deliver the volume and margin growth its eye-popping valuation implies. A PE ratio of almost 150 means valuation remains our main source of worry - especially when compared to the 13.7 times investors pay for rival Toyota from whom Tesla recently claimed the crown of most valuable automotive manufacture.

Delivering the growth implied by its valuation will be a tall order, even for Mr Musk.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-resea ... pectations

[scrumpyjack]

I see that Elon has now backed Kanye West's bid for the presidency!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=mwlrlP7l

Kim Kardashian would be first lady if he wins.

and I thought the Trump presidency was rather strange, still if Elon thinks KW is the man to back.....

[odysseus2000]

I see that Elon has now backed Kanye West's bid for the presidency!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=mwlrlP7l

Kim Kardashian would be first lady if he wins.

and I thought the Trump presidency was rather strange, still if Elon thinks KW is the man to back.....

If this candidacy happens it looks likely to increase the already good odds that Trump will walk it, as it seems probable that Kayne will take votes from Biden rather than from Trump.

Musk must know this, but is perhaps just wanting to get some experience before he puts forward and bank roles a candidate in 2024. As far as I understand US election law, only folk born in the US can become president, so Musk as the law currently is can not run. Laws can be changed but it would be imho hard for Musk to get this to happen even if he wants to run.

Regards,

[dspp]

Tesla 3 for corporate fleet use, may interest some here

https://electrek.co/2020/07/03/tesla-pu ... -vehicles/

- dspp

[odysseus2000]

Tesla 3 for corporate fleet use, may interest some here

https://electrek.co/2020/07/03/tesla-pu ... -vehicles/

- dspp

This is a great market to go after and once volume picks up it will send out a fleet of used BEV into the second hand market, greatly widening the user base who can afford BEV.

If police and other emergency services switch to BEV it ought to dispel doubts about reliability, range and other anxiety as did the move from petrol to diesel cars by many public bodies when diesel were seen as too new to be trusted.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Short shorts sold out:

https://shop.tesla.com/product/tesla-short-shorts

Regards,

[ADrunkenMarcus]

Tesla is on a 2022 free cash flow yield forecast at 1.6 percent - and the 2022 forecasts rely on free cash flow rising 13-fold from the 2020 estimate. What it needs to do is keep growing strongly!

Best wishes

Mark.

[odysseus2000]

Bill Maurer argues that a threat to Tesla is that the democrats do well in the November elections and introduce electric vehicle credits that buoy Tesla's competitors:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435719 ... ent=link-0

He might be right, but November is a ways off and I have no clue what might happen before or if the Democrats are sure fire winners. So I don't find any reason to be troubled by this.The main take for me being that he is at least arguing a little more rationally than previously.

Regards,

[dspp]

It looks as if Tesla solar may have legs after all, the scale play is getting interesting, and forcing responses,

"The combination forms a company that would overtake Tesla's (TSLA +1.4%) residential solar business in scale: Last year Tesla accounted for 14% of all U.S. residential solar installations, while Sunrun and Vivint together accounted for 16%, according to UBS Research."

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3589237-s ... juggernaut

- dspp

[odysseus2000]

It looks as if Tesla solar may have legs after all, the scale play is getting interesting, and forcing responses,

"The combination forms a company that would overtake Tesla's (TSLA +1.4%) residential solar business in scale: Last year Tesla accounted for 14% of all U.S. residential solar installations, while Sunrun and Vivint together accounted for 16%, according to UBS Research."

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3589237-s ... juggernaut

- dspp

Interesting article.

As things now stand with renewable tech, the arguments for roof top solar look very good to me and for anyone with their own BEV, compelling.

In the by and by there may be commodity pricing that would drive electricity prices down, hurting legacy generators most, but that seems a ways off and having ones own solar protects against what ever attempts the utilities make to try and get growth or slow declines in revenue, such as using smart meters, measuring apparent power rather than traditional meters that measure real power as an excuse to ramp up electricity prices.

Given the low interest rates available on deposit, the returns from solar, at least in some cases, seem better than having money in the bank. There is also the possibility that the Chancellor may make some forms of grants available to increase the take up of house improvements and renewable power. As far as I know Tesla don't have much (any?) solar presence in the UK, but their solar tiles, if they do indeed work or are hyped enough, would likely be attractive to many with period properties.

Tesla look to be set up to both follow Henry Ford with cars and Rockefeller with energy and so I am still hopeful that Tesla solar will do well. Looking at the seekingalpha article and the savings from the merger, they are mostly about the overheads of the selling process, something that Tesla have greatly refined making the purchase easy and this may well be a significant commercial advantage.

Regards,

[dealtn]

As far as I know Tesla don't have much (any?) solar presence in the UK, but their solar tiles, if they do indeed work or are hyped enough, would likely be attractive to many with period properties.

Why would solar panels be attractive to period property owners?