Musk endeavours

[dspp]

Tesla $800 a share and Musk is now the richest man on the planet.

Maybe this EV thing isn't just a fad? Or is me finally thinking that a contrarian indicator that his bubble is about to burst?

RBC disclosed they lost $1.2bn shorting TSLA, ouch. (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla ... 56636.html) resetting their price expectation to $700. They've got their production estimates laughably wrong mind you.

The index funds got what they needed in the two months pre-$695.

I think what we are seeing now is that the benchmark funds mostly took insufficient, probably no more than a third, maybe only a quarter of what they needed to match the index and go neutral-weight. And with a rising share price, and given everyone realising the significance of the Q4 half million, and the dawning understanding of Battery Day, that leaves a lot of funds scrambling to get in and I think that is the source of the share price action. And this is with almost nothing in the price for autonomy, just pricing 35% GM and 50% growth in BEVs.

I expect that there will be another capital raise, and likely another share split, which in turn will put TSLA into the DJIA.

I have done nothing. My HUR and my TSLA were my high risk pot. HUR lost three quarters, TSLA are up 10x, they were not equal weight, overall I'm ahead and as they say HODLing*. Or as I said to some friends who asked the other day, "I'm too scared to touch it".

regards, dspp

(* Hold On for Dear Life)

[odysseus2000]

Yes, this a very difficult situation.

On one hand the price gains have been so large that it seems silly not to bank a lot.

On the other hand the price rise in Tesla is just one of several including bitcoin that are showing strength.

The recent admission by VW's CEO that they are in serious trouble, worse than 2018 in his words, gives credence to the performance of Tesla equity and as dspp notes there is currently nothing in it for robotic driving.

So far I have not touched my holdings as I do not want to miss out if the price keeps roaring. I have tried to be cute several times in the recent past, sell and re-buy but with little success.

Part of me says sell, another part says no, this is still a huge opportunity. When your most lauded competitor CEO says they are in trouble it does make one think.

There could be a capital raise here as dspp notes and that might knock the stock, but they can raise billions at these prices with very little dilution.

Stuck in this worry that I might one day lose a lot of the gains I have, balanced by the excitement and promise that the business is executing well while the competitors are not and then there is the potential ace of approval for robotic driving.

Every investor has to do what feels right to them, there is no other way of living with ones self later.

Regards

[Lootman]

Yes, this a very difficult situation.

On one hand the price gains have been so large that it seems silly not to bank a lot.

On the other hand the price rise in Tesla is just one of several including bitcoin that are showing strength.

The recent admission by VW's CEO that they are in serious trouble, worse than 2018 in his words, gives credence to the performance of Tesla equity and as dspp notes there is currently nothing in it for robotic driving.

So far I have not touched my holdings as I do not want to miss out if the price keeps roaring. I have tried to be cute several times in the recent past, sell and re-buy but with little success.

Part of me says sell, another part says no, this is still a huge opportunity. When your most lauded competitor CEO says they are in trouble it does make one think.

There could be a capital raise here as dspp notes and that might knock the stock, but they can raise billions at these prices with very little dilution.

Stuck in this worry that I might one day lose a lot of the gains I have, balanced by the excitement and promise that the business is executing well while the competitors are not and then there is the potential ace of approval for robotic driving.

Every investor has to do what feels right to them, there is no other way of living with ones self later.

My largest position is in a S&P 500 index fund, and Tesla is now about 2% of the S&P 500.

Between that and my Scottish Mortgage IT position (10% in Tesla last time I looked), I have about 10 grand in Tesla without holding it at all. That is enough for me.

I have no problem holding megacap high flyers that pay no dividend, as I hold Amazon and Alphabet. But I cannot get my head around Tesla at all. I might play around with its options a bit as the implied volatility is through the roof, but with tight spreads and stops.

[dspp]

Let's do some numbers with the most recent quarterly estimates which are based on the known Q4 production.

TSLA Q4 at 500k/yr cars is $1.22/share (see https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/5251478/)

To be conservative let's use $1/share EPS per quarter at 500k/yr.

The current & in-build factories (Berlin + Shanghai + Austin + Fremont) can ultimately build out to 2+2+2+0.6 = 6.6m run-rate.

To be conservative let's use 5m/yr.

So that is annual EPS of 4 x $1 x (0.5/5) = $40/share @ 5m.

That would still be a growth share, as it leaves plenty of room for future build (the 20m/yr target); for energy; and for autonomy (which will not just be about driving or about mere cars).

So let's give it a PE of 20 as a growth stock, not 10 for a no-growth stock.

So share price of $800 is not unreasonable for TSLA to grow into in only a few years (about 2026, so 5-years away).

I think I'll hold for the time being.

I'm also interested in anybody else's sums.

regards, dspp

[dealtn]

There could be a capital raise here as dspp notes and that might knock the stock, but they can raise billions at these prices with very little dilution.

In my mind that will be the most successful transaction the company will have done in its short history.

[tikunetih]

On one hand the price gains have been so large that it seems silly not to bank a lot.

On the other hand the price rise in Tesla is just one of several including bitcoin that are showing strength.

So far I have not touched my holdings as I do not want to miss out if the price keeps roaring.

Anecdote:

I was involved at the heart of the late 90s Technology bubble. Meeting potential customers etc became a surreal experience as they increasingly focused on the massive price appreciation of our stock, with only tangential interest in what we were there to discuss, the products we were there to sell them. *Everyone* I spoke to wanted to own the stock, enthralled by it, and all I ever replied was that "I bought much lower and I'm not buying here".

I recall the director of a global corporation inviting me into his office solely to offload about how he'd nearly bought a load of our stock at basement prices, simultaneously regretful but mesmerised. No real interest in the millions he was to splurge on the product, only in the stock and an apparent need to be associated and involved with the success that its price appreciation represented.

Absolutely fascinating to me at the time, and still.

This and other observations led me to decide that the game was up, for me at least. Opinions seemed to have become uniform, everyone's views aligned, VC money being sprayed everywhere and meeting daily people who seemed to have almost lost their minds. I offload everything across a 6-week period, banking a ~4500% return from the last 15 months of the Tech bubble alone. At the time I couldn't know that my sales were almost nailing the top of the bubble but I did know that I was no longer comfortable letting my position run as I had been.

I was reluctant to sell but felt compelled. I'd projected how in several years time my holdings could be worth n times more etc., with no shortage of forecasts to explain how this might come about. Selling meant abandoning these aspirations, and I remember feeling quite miserable about it, and this despite trousering enormous life-changing profits.

NB no advice from me here.

The act of selling crystallizes scope for subsequent regret. With highly prominent holdings more so, because their coverage means they'll always be on your radar. Hence Isaac Newton.

I've just sold the last tranche of something I've held for years and years and that has performed absolutely magnificently for me, having scaled out of it over the past 12 months. No longer felt so comfortable with it and wanted the cash for something else. Profits banked. Feel a bit sad. Could be worse!

[dspp]

German auto sales, 2020 vs 2019, % change

[odysseus2000]

tikunetih Anecdote:

I was involved at the heart of the late 90s Technology bubble. Meeting potential customers etc became a surreal experience as they increasingly focused on the massive price appreciation of our stock, with only tangential interest in what we were there to discuss, the products we were there to sell them. *Everyone* I spoke to wanted to own the stock, enthralled by it, and all I ever replied was that "I bought much lower and I'm not buying here".

I recall the director of a global corporation inviting me into his office solely to offload about how he'd nearly bought a load of our stock at basement prices, simultaneously regretful but mesmerised. No real interest in the millions he was to splurge on the product, only in the stock and an apparent need to be associated and involved with the success that its price appreciation represented.

Absolutely fascinating to me at the time, and still.

Yes, these kinds of memories and recollections are regular ghosts for me that come to trouble me and make me feel stupid and fool hardy for continuing to hold. When I have sold a tranche they have come and expressed their thoughts that I was right, but for now the price has always rallied back above what I sold for and that has unleashed another bunch of spectres who tell me how I have done a lot of work on the business and I haven't yet had any visions as to why it is time to sell, other than the price going up, so I was being foolhardy in another way.

There is no way of knowing what will happen. I would hate to catch a big down move or miss a big up move and that makes for a round table of discomfort, distress, hope and euphoria with fear ready in an instant to come in on either side.

But as difficult as this is I can think of very many things that could be worse and I consider myself blessed to have these choices.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

- I'm not terribly fussed about any one manufacturer's temporary market position in any one country or continent, provided they do not thereby gain a blocking position that would be to (my shareholding's) longer term detriment.

German auto sales, 2020 vs 2019, % change

...

[BobbyD]

UK Study Finds VW e-Golf Holds Its Value Better Than Other EVs Including Teslas

- https://insideevs.com/news/464963/uk-st ... on-ranked/

[dspp]

- I'm not terribly fussed about any one manufacturer's temporary market position in any one country or continent, provided they do not thereby gain a blocking position that would be to (my shareholding's) longer term detriment.

German auto sales, 2020 vs 2019, % change

...

Yeah, but it's good gossip

Here's two more:
1) Soccer Mom's get the 7-seat Y, apparently for $42k : https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y ... -pictures/

and
2) The $25k model 2 is due in 2022 in Shanghai : https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-25k-car ... na-report/

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

- I'm not terribly fussed about any one manufacturer's temporary market position in any one country or continent, provided they do not thereby gain a blocking position that would be to (my shareholding's) longer term detriment.

German auto sales, 2020 vs 2019, % change

...

Yeah, but it's good gossip

Here's two more:
1) Soccer Mom's get the 7-seat Y, apparently for $42k : https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y ... -pictures/

and
2) The $25k model 2 is due in 2022 in Shanghai : https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-25k-car ... na-report/

regards, dspp

Wow so the model 2 is going to beat the CT, Semi and roadster to market ...or is it just more vaporware?

[odysseus2000]

dspp
Yeah, but it's good gossip

Here's two more:
1) Soccer Mom's get the 7-seat Y, apparently for $42k : https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y ... -pictures/

Rob on Tesla daily noted that it is being launched with an epa range of 244 miles. This is similar to one of Chinese Model 3 with iron-phosphate battery tech.

Rob thought this range was a bit low and I have wondered why they have released it so. My thoughts include:

It could go further and will be unlocked if additional price paid

It is another vehicle to use iron-phosphate tech

Battery supply is tight

Tesla research suggests folk want a Tesla, don't really need 300 miles, but do really need as low a price as possible.

Have I missed something, or does someone know why this model at this range?

Additionally in the chart showing sales of cars in Germany posted by dspp, is there a key to say what the columns are. Some I get but others I am confused by and wonder what they are about.

Regards,

[dspp]

...

Yeah, but it's good gossip

Here's two more:
1) Soccer Mom's get the 7-seat Y, apparently for $42k : https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y ... -pictures/

and
2) The $25k model 2 is due in 2022 in Shanghai : https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-25k-car ... na-report/

regards, dspp

Wow so the model 2 is going to beat the CT, Semi and roadster to market ...or is it just more vaporware?

They appear to be doing product verification in Mar-21 so that is only a few months away, and this news is based on what seems to be the planning applications for the factory expansion to do it.

Elsewhere there has been analysis of the factory sizing and the casting/moulding machinery foundations going into Berlin & Austin (and retrofitting to Fremont and Shanghai) appears to be sized for 1.6m-2m vehicles/year (except at Fremont). That is consistent with other info that I've been picking up to the effect that Shanghai, Berlin, Austin are all intended to be capable of 2m/yr. If you factor in 0.3m for the existing Shanghai 3 lines now, and they seem to be aiming for more ?? 0.5m from the Y line, and add in another 0.5m for the 2, and then another 0.5m for the 1, you can picture how they see a typical factory blend looking.

Similarly you can see the battery constraint showing up. That is why that 7-seat $42k Y has the shorter 250 mile range, not a 300 mile range. It is enough to go head-to-head with the ID4 without wasting scarce batteries at this time. Then they drop the short range version and release the 300-mile version when they are flusher with batteries.

I wonder what VAG's corresponding battery constraint feels like ?

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

One dead as explosion rocks CATL plant in China

...CATL had no immediate comment when contacted by Reuters but the company was reported as saying by National Business Daily that the accident would have a limited impact on production and operations, according to a preliminary assessment.

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-c ... SL1N2JJ0I3

[JamesMuenchen]

When I have sold a tranche they have come and expressed their thoughts that I was right, but for now the price has always rallied back above what I sold for and that has unleashed another bunch of spectres who tell me how I have done a lot of work on the business and I haven't yet had any visions as to why it is time to sell, other than the price going up, so I was being foolhardy in another way.

I thought you had been successfully swing trading?

My own TSLA holding is not at problematic levels, and I'm more likely to add than trim even at these levels. It would be nice to trade the volatility a bit though. Unfortunately for me, in Germany all gains are taxed at 25% on a FIFO basis so it's really not on.

[odysseus2000]

Interesting video on hydrogen as a fuel that is generally interesting & well constructed for some one interested in learning about the technology:

https://youtu.be/tnzuuLpYFVg

The author believes that this is the end of Tesla, but from the video it's clear that fuel cells & the charging infra structure are a ways off & he does not discuss some of the problems with long term use & degradation of the catalysts.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

When I have sold a tranche they have come and expressed their thoughts that I was right, but for now the price has always rallied back above what I sold for and that has unleashed another bunch of spectres who tell me how I have done a lot of work on the business and I haven't yet had any visions as to why it is time to sell, other than the price going up, so I was being foolhardy in another way.

I thought you had been successfully swing trading?

My own TSLA holding is not at problematic levels, and I'm more likely to add than trim even at these levels. It would be nice to trade the volatility a bit though. Unfortunately for me, in Germany all gains are taxed at 25% on a FIFO basis so it's really not on.

There hasn't been much volatility to trade, the shares have been up for the last 11 trading days.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Interesting video on hydrogen as a fuel that is generally interesting & well constructed for some one interested in learning about the technology:

https://youtu.be/tnzuuLpYFVg

The author believes that this is the end of Tesla, but from the video it's clear that fuel cells & the charging infra structure are a ways off & he does not discuss some of the problems with long term use & degradation of the catalysts.

Regards,

Forgot to mention that hydrogen & fuel cells may work well for electrically powered flight. Hydrogen is light & one can have the hydrogen storage & refinery at the airport. It would be something if your next flight was powered by what comes out of the cows in the field next door!

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Solar panel down the centre of an highway in South Korea with space for cyclists underneath:

https://twitter.com/ValaAfshar/status/1 ... 77986?s=20

Regards,