Musk endeavours

[dspp]

There's been rumours that Tesla will be withdrawing from selling SolarEdge and Delta inverters, and panel optimisers, and selling instead Tesla-branded inverters. Until now there were no viable links to back that up. Now it is announced, but it is unclear if this is in-house design & manufacture, kdesign but not manufacture, manufacture but not design, or just a badging exercise. It also appears that they will no longer be selling on-module optimisers (ie. SolarEdge) which tends to suggest that whatever deal is excluding SolarEdge.

Here is the link, you may need to open in an incognito window as the /GB path will not show this.

regards, dspp

--------------
https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/so ... r-inverter

Tesla Solar Inverter completes the Tesla home solar system, converting DC power from solar to AC power for home consumption. Tesla's renowned expertise in power electronics has been combined with robust safety features and a simple installation process to produce an outstanding solar inverter that is compatible with both Solar Roof and traditional solar panels. Once installed, homeowners use the Tesla app to manage their solar system and monitor energy consumption, resulting in a truly unique ecosystem experience.

Key Features
Built on Powerwall 2 technology for exceptional efficiency and reliability
Wi-Fi, Ethernet and cellular connectivity with over-the-air updates
Designed to integrate with Tesla Powerwall and Tesla app
3.8 kW and 7.6 kW models available
Power
3.8 kW / 7.6 kW
2 / 4 maximum power point trackers
97.5% efficiency

Installation
Indoor or outdoor
-22°F to 113°F

Size
26" x 16" x 6"
660 mm x 411 mm x 158 mm
Certifications
Meets US and international safety standards
Meets US and international safety EMI standards

Weight
52 lbs
Safety
Integrated rapid shutdown, arc fault and ground fault protection

Warranty
12.5 years

[dspp]

Here's the VAG 2020 BEV and PHEV numbers,
https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... nsive-6752

regards, dspp

--------
The Group delivered 9.3 million vehicles worldwide in spite of the Covid-19 pandemic
Passenger car market share: gains in Europe and South America also lead to a slight increase at a global level
Significant advances in the e-offensive: 231,600 all-electric vehicles handed over to customers, more than three times the 2019 figure; also 190,500 plug-in hybrids (+175 percent)
The Volkswagen Group handed over 9,305,400 vehicles to customers worldwide in 2020, a decrease of 15.2 percent year-on-year due to Covid-19. In December, deliveries were down just 3.2 percent on the same month of the previous year, while in the fourth quarter they declined by a total of 5.7 percent. This meant that the Group slightly expanded its global passenger car market share in 2020 amid a declining overall market. Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, the Group’s e-offensive with a large number of new models met with keen in-terest from customers in the year now ended and resulted in deliveries of approximately 231,600 all-electric vehicles, more than three times the volumes delivered in 2019. Plug-in hybrids were also very popular with customers, who purchased 190,500 units (+175 per-cent). In Western Europe, the share of electric vehicles therefore surged to 10.5 percent of overall deliveries (2019: 1.9 percent).

[Howard]

So this is really useful information?

Maybe it's why Tesla has sold only four Model 3s in Norway so far this year?

And their sales dropped significantly last year?

Or have they discovered a new exciting market segment? Mad campers?

regards

Howard

It just gives an indication of the technical lead that Tesla have over VW.

The model 3 is substantially more efficient over the ID3 in the cold and although it is possible to sleep over night in the 3 in -25 centigrade degree weather, it is not possible to do so in the id3 as its systems shut down after 1 hour.

You may argue that such advantages mean nothing, but anyone stuck in a blizzard would likely disagree. The model 3 could literally save the life of a vulnerable person such as a young child caught in such a situatuation.



Moreover, it shows the level to which Tesla engineers have refined their offering and the quality of their engineering.
Regards,

Yes, but one zany YouTuber's experience isn't as valid as the many Tesla owners who find that the Model 3 range isn't what it is cracked up to be in normal driving conditions, for example in the rain on a motorway in the UK.

If you look at the Tesla driver threads you will see that there are quite a lot of new drivers who are finding that the actual range of a Model 3 is much lower than expected. And it's lower than cheaper Hyundai and Kia BEVs.

Time will tell if VW have got a winning formula with the ID.3.

I wouldn't claim (unlike others) that one person's experience can be extrapolated to a whole market but I was chatting to my neighbours about the reason for choosing an ID.3. They test drove a Tesla as well but preferred the VW because it was nice to drive, was much roomier in the back than the Model 3 and the VW sales service was more re-assuring. Whilst they can afford fancy cars and price wasn't an issue, they found the Model 3 screen controls confusing and the VW is just more practical.

On the downside, the VW is scheduled to go to the service centre for a software upgrade, but this isn't seen as a problem by them as they were aware that a new Tesla would probably have had faults which would need a trip to the service centre to fix.

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

So this is really useful information?

Maybe it's why Tesla has sold only four Model 3s in Norway so far this year?

And their sales dropped significantly last year?

Or have they discovered a new exciting market segment? Mad campers?

regards

Howard

It just gives an indication of the technical lead that Tesla have over VW.

The only thing you can buy from Tesla for ID.3 money in Norway is a pair of short shorts. Personally I reckon buying VW gives you a greater chance of survival in that match up.

[odysseus2000]

Munroe begins a series on the model 3 2021 & still does not like the body fit:

https://youtu.be/jPBGVI2oFLI

Rather a long 12 minute watch given what little he says, but haters will enjoy the gap assymetry.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

For those engaged in the showroom debate:

Tesla expanded the number of stores and service centers it operates in Europe by a third last year in preparation for selling the new Model Y compact crossover.

The showroom expansion is a reversal of the electric vehicle maker’s 2019 plan to shift to online sales only.

Tesla opened 40 new outlets in Europe last year, for a total of 161 in the region, the company said. A majority offer both sales and service functions, it added.

The expansion of the company-owned network represents a U-turn from a plan to close most stores except for a handful in prominent locations and move to online sales. The move was spurred by a need to save costs in order to launch a $35,000 version of the Model 3.

- https://europe.autonews.com/retail/tesl ... s-strategy

[Howard]

There are some interesting threads indicating that a significant number of new owners of new Model 3s are worried that the range of their cars is much lower than they expected.

The post which started the thread linked below was on Thursday, so it's all very current (pun intended ).

"Collected my model 3 LR not long ago and charged fully to 90% last week with range showing as 292miles.

I’m now at 88miles showing on the screen and looked at how many miles I’ve done since the last charge...... 72miles! Surely that cannot be right? I know it’s been freezing cold and most my journeys are 10-15 miles then stopping/restart but l was not expecting this..."

This isn't the only thread about the low range of Teslas. One problem that new owners didn't realise is that Tesla advises them not to fully charge the car batteries, so they start with only 80%. And then they are advised not to discharge the battery too low.

We now know that Tesla do have lots of distributors and lots of sales people, so their internet only selling wasn't a competitive advantage after all. A number of their customers indicate that they are pretty fed up with Tesla service. They are reduced to removing light clusters to try and dry them out. They prefer to do this rather than make another visit to a service centre.

Will their battery supremacy be the next leak in their moat? Which reminds me, there's even more owner comments about the Model 3 lights letting in water. Don't read them if your are a Tesla fan.

The Model 3 is now reaching a wider consumer base and, having acquired cars which cost £50,000 to around £90,000, quite a few are disappointed.

Just to round things off, FSD purchasers are really enjoy phantom braking. It's wise not to follow a Model 3 too closely as it comes up to a motorway bridge.

There is lots of data in these threads, not just a few posters' problems.

regards

Howard

range issues: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... 071/page-5

water in rear lights: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ts.168403/

phantom braking: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... 503/page-8

[BobbyD]

Good news from Germany.

December figures complete 2020 figures.

December:

BEV's: 43,671 (+660%), PHEV's: 39,107 (+601%), MHEV: 81,108 (+244%), Petrol: 117,228 (-30.5%), Diesel: 67,642 (-19.9%)


VW: 15,432 BEV, 16,028 PHEV
Merc: 1,797 BEV, 11,295 PHEV
Renault: 6266 BEV, 1161 PHEV
BMW: 1250 BEV, 4346 PHEV
Tesla: 3545 BEV, -

(I've promoted Tesla to the top 5 by combining all the VW brands)

2020:

BEV's: 194,163 (+207%), PHEV's: 200,469 (+342%)

VW: 64,652 BEV, 64,653 PHEV
Merc: 4,494 BEV, 54,224 PHEV
BMW: 8,700 BEV, 25,438
Renault: 31,477, 2,605 PHEV
Hyundai: 15,941 BEV, 1,751 PHEV
Tesla: 16,694 BEV, -
smart: 16,035 BEV

(Again I've promoted Tesla by combining all the VW brands)

https://insideevs.com/news/466566/germa ... mber-2020/

[odysseus2000]

Episode 2 (approx 11 minutes) of the Munroe tear down of a model 3. For anyone who has not tried to manufacture stuff this may be interesting in terms of the way small components elimination reduce cost:

https://youtu.be/61s1XNVSfiI

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Episode 2 (approx 11 minutes) of the Munroe tear down of a model 3. For anyone who has not tried to manufacture stuff this may be interesting in terms of the way small components elimination reduce cost:

https://youtu.be/61s1XNVSfiI

Regards,

Yeah, makes you wonder why they don't bother finishing designing the car and eliminating all the unnecessary crap before they release it rather than waiting until 2 years later...

[Howard]

I have no idea whether this rapid charging battery will be a success in a year or two. However the huge investment in battery development across the world is likely to come up with some major improvements.

"Batteries capable of fully charging in five minutes have been produced in a factory for the first time, marking a significant step towards electric cars becoming as fast to charge as filling up petrol or diesel vehicles."

The sheer scale of investment by companies and governments in batteries and charging infrastructure suggest that any BEV company which is relying on its battery capability as a moat might be vulnerable to competition in the future?

regards

Howard

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ging-times

[BobbyD]

Tesla sues media over article that claimed quality issues and poor working conditions in China

- https://electrek.co/2021/01/19/tesla-su ... ons-china/

[odysseus2000]

I have no idea whether this rapid charging battery will be a success in a year or two. However the huge investment in battery development across the world is likely to come up with some major improvements.

"Batteries capable of fully charging in five minutes have been produced in a factory for the first time, marking a significant step towards electric cars becoming as fast to charge as filling up petrol or diesel vehicles."

The sheer scale of investment by companies and governments in batteries and charging infrastructure suggest that any BEV company which is relying on its battery capability as a moat might be vulnerable to competition in the future?

regards

Howard

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ging-times

The problem for business is do you wait for some better tech or do you say what we have now is good enough, let's make some money.

There are dozens of companies saying they have a low cost, fast charge, long life battery technology & that in a few years time it will be available in commercial quantities.

If you go with now you make money, you have enough to buyout any tech that works.

If you wait a new better tech emerges & you bid for it, but the folk who have been selling the less good tech out bid you.

Is the bird in the hand worth the three in the bush?

Regards,

[BobbyD]

I have no idea whether this rapid charging battery will be a success in a year or two. However the huge investment in battery development across the world is likely to come up with some major improvements.

"Batteries capable of fully charging in five minutes have been produced in a factory for the first time, marking a significant step towards electric cars becoming as fast to charge as filling up petrol or diesel vehicles."

The sheer scale of investment by companies and governments in batteries and charging infrastructure suggest that any BEV company which is relying on its battery capability as a moat might be vulnerable to competition in the future?

regards

Howard

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ging-times

The problem for business is do you wait for some better tech or do you say what we have now is good enough, let's make some money.

There are dozens of companies saying they have a low cost, fast charge, long life battery technology & that in a few years time it will be available in commercial quantities.

If you go with now you make money, you have enough to buyout any tech that works.

If you wait a new better tech emerges & you bid for it, but the folk who have been selling the less good tech out bid you.

Is the bird in the hand worth the three in the bush?

Regards,

So you prefer specific sunk costs theory rather than general sunk costs theory?

[dealtn]

I have no idea whether this rapid charging battery will be a success in a year or two. However the huge investment in battery development across the world is likely to come up with some major improvements.

"Batteries capable of fully charging in five minutes have been produced in a factory for the first time, marking a significant step towards electric cars becoming as fast to charge as filling up petrol or diesel vehicles."

The sheer scale of investment by companies and governments in batteries and charging infrastructure suggest that any BEV company which is relying on its battery capability as a moat might be vulnerable to competition in the future?

regards

Howard

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ging-times

The problem for business is do you wait for some better tech or do you say what we have now is good enough, let's make some money.

There are dozens of companies saying they have a low cost, fast charge, long life battery technology & that in a few years time it will be available in commercial quantities.

If you go with now you make money, you have enough to buyout any tech that works.

If you wait a new better tech emerges & you bid for it, but the folk who have been selling the less good tech out bid you.

Is the bird in the hand worth the three in the bush?

Regards,

So your argument is the "moat" is an ability to buy out any rival tech, rather than the "moat" is your tech?

[dspp]

I have no idea whether this rapid charging battery will be a success in a year or two. However the huge investment in battery development across the world is likely to come up with some major improvements.

"Batteries capable of fully charging in five minutes have been produced in a factory for the first time, marking a significant step towards electric cars becoming as fast to charge as filling up petrol or diesel vehicles."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ging-times

Howard

There are dozens of companies saying they have a low cost, fast charge, long life battery technology & that in a few years time it will be available in commercial quantities.

So your argument is the "moat" is an ability to buy out any rival tech, rather than the "moat" is your tech?

In my opinon this is a vapourware announcement for marketing purposes to try to drive interest in a funding round that might result in a product in 5-years time. As the article goes on to say,

"Anna Tomaszewska, at Imperial College London, UK, who reviewed the fast-charging batteries in 2019, was more cautious about the speed of their rollout. “I think technologies [like StoreDot’s] could start entering the market in the next five years or so. However, since they will be more difficult and expensive to manufacture, we’re likely to initially only see them in niche markets that are highly performance-driven and not as price-sensitive as electric vehicles,” she said."

As the article also says many other companies, including Tesla, are working on silicon electrodes. On Tesla's battery day they included them as part of the roadmap in the 4680 release, https://www.energy-storage.news/blogs/e ... -takeaways .

That's the 4680 that is already at pilot scale in Kato Rd, which alone (from memory) makes TSLA one of the top 5 largest BEV cell manufacturing sites in the world.

regards, dspp

[dealtn]

There are dozens of companies saying they have a low cost, fast charge, long life battery technology & that in a few years time it will be available in commercial quantities.

So your argument is the "moat" is an ability to buy out any rival tech, rather than the "moat" is your tech?

In my opinon this is a vapourware announcement for marketing purposes to try to drive interest in a funding round that might result in a product in 5-years time. As the article goes on to say,

"Anna Tomaszewska, at Imperial College London, UK, who reviewed the fast-charging batteries in 2019, was more cautious about the speed of their rollout. “I think technologies [like StoreDot’s] could start entering the market in the next five years or so. However, since they will be more difficult and expensive to manufacture, we’re likely to initially only see them in niche markets that are highly performance-driven and not as price-sensitive as electric vehicles,” she said."

As the article also says many other companies, including Tesla, are working on silicon electrodes. On Tesla's battery day they included them as part of the roadmap in the 4680 release, https://www.energy-storage.news/blogs/e ... -takeaways .

That's the 4680 that is already at pilot scale in Kato Rd, which alone (from memory) makes TSLA one of the top 5 largest BEV cell manufacturing sites in the world.

regards, dspp

So your argument is the "moat" is your tech, rather than the "moat" is an ability to buy out any rival tech?

[dspp]

So your argument is the "moat" is an ability to buy out any rival tech, rather than the "moat" is your tech?

In my opinon this is a vapourware announcement for marketing purposes to try to drive interest in a funding round that might result in a product in 5-years time. As the article goes on to say,

"Anna Tomaszewska, at Imperial College London, UK, who reviewed the fast-charging batteries in 2019, was more cautious about the speed of their rollout. “I think technologies [like StoreDot’s] could start entering the market in the next five years or so. However, since they will be more difficult and expensive to manufacture, we’re likely to initially only see them in niche markets that are highly performance-driven and not as price-sensitive as electric vehicles,” she said."

As the article also says many other companies, including Tesla, are working on silicon electrodes. On Tesla's battery day they included them as part of the roadmap in the 4680 release, https://www.energy-storage.news/blogs/e ... -takeaways .

That's the 4680 that is already at pilot scale in Kato Rd, which alone (from memory) makes TSLA one of the top 5 largest BEV cell manufacturing sites in the world.

regards, dspp

So your argument is the "moat" is your tech, rather than the "moat" is an ability to buy out any rival tech?

I think in this case both apply. regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
So your argument is the "moat" is an ability to buy out any rival tech, rather than the "moat" is your tech?

I concur with dspp that it is both the cash and the tech and also the position as leader in a field that allows you to attract the best young engineers who can be retained with performance related options.

In a field that is fast moving there is always a danger that ones moat may fail, but if you have the cash to buy out rivals and the best engineers the chance of a serious breech of ones moat is low and the risk for the competitor who does not have such advantages is that their own moat ceases to be important.

Regards,

[JamesMuenchen]

So your argument is the "moat" is your tech, rather than the "moat" is an ability to buy out any rival tech?

I think in this case both apply. regards, dspp

Just like a moat can simply be an empty ditch. Or it can be filled with water as well. And nasty bitey things.

And it's purpose is to keep you away from the defensive wall.

So even in the analogy, there are layers.

I would guess that in the real world most competitive advantages are a combination of things, otherwise they won't last long.