Musk endeavours

[Howard]

There are dozens of companies saying they have a low cost, fast charge, long life battery technology & that in a few years time it will be available in commercial quantities.

So your argument is the "moat" is an ability to buy out any rival tech, rather than the "moat" is your tech?

In my opinon this is a vapourware announcement for marketing purposes to try to drive interest in a funding round that might result in a product in 5-years time. As the article goes on to say,

"Anna Tomaszewska, at Imperial College London, UK, who reviewed the fast-charging batteries in 2019, was more cautious about the speed of their rollout. “I think technologies [like StoreDot’s] could start entering the market in the next five years or so. However, since they will be more difficult and expensive to manufacture, we’re likely to initially only see them in niche markets that are highly performance-driven and not as price-sensitive as electric vehicles,” she said."

As the article also says many other companies, including Tesla, are working on silicon electrodes. On Tesla's battery day they included them as part of the roadmap in the 4680 release, https://www.energy-storage.news/blogs/e ... -takeaways .

That's the 4680 that is already at pilot scale in Kato Rd, which alone (from memory) makes TSLA one of the top 5 largest BEV cell manufacturing sites in the world.

regards, dspp

I think you are missing my general point.

Yes, the article is just one of, probably many thousands, across the world about current investments in battery technology. It may be hailing a breakthrough or not. It's the volume of battery initiatives which are important. Investments in China alone are using amazing amounts of cash, technology and brainpower.

Investors are casting their nets widely in the belief that there are major breakthroughs in battery manufacture soon to come. And other BEV manufacturers will be willing customers for new technology.

Whilst a current leading position in batteries is good, I'm not sure that Tesla have made much profit manufacturing cars over the past five years. They are up against massively financed competition and to sell volume at a premium they must offer more than just heavy batteries in their cars.

Quality is important when you are selling cars at Tesla price points. The ID.4 is launching in their main markets with, reputedly a higher range than most Model 3s and at a slightly lower prices. If VW can do this now with their batteries and their ability to produce high quality cars, the Tesla moat may be shrinking?

regards

Howard

[Howard]

dealtn
So your argument is the "moat" is an ability to buy out any rival tech, rather than the "moat" is your tech?

I concur with dspp that it is both the cash and the tech and also the position as leader in a field that allows you to attract the best young engineers who can be retained with performance related options.

In a field that is fast moving there is always a danger that ones moat may fail, but if you have the cash to buy out rivals and the best engineers the chance of a serious breech of ones moat is low and the risk for the competitor who does not have such advantages is that their own moat ceases to be important.

Regards,

Are you sure that Tesla is finding it easy to to "attract the best young engineers who can be retained with performance related options".

There are some signs that they are not finding this easy in Germany. The pay and conditions they are offering are said to be unattractive compared with the major car manufacturers. And their recruitment rate is fairly slow. See sources below:

Tesla sales volumes in Germany are so small that this may also put off the best qualified engineers. Who would want to work for a company whose BEV market share has dropped and is now less than major competitors? The Model Y doesn't look like a European winner and the Model 2 is planned to be developed in China.

It's likely that shop floor staff will be recruited to do the repetitive assembly work, but I'm not sure you are right about attracting top engineers?

regards

Howard

Tesla Is Having A Hard Time Recruiting Workers For Giga Berlin https://insideevs.com/news/459015/tesla ... ga-berlin/

These Are The Signs That Show Why Giga Berlin Should Be Worried https://insideevs.com/news/466847/signs ... n-worried/

[dspp]

I think you are missing my general point.....

Howard

I understand the general points you are trying to make, I just tend to think that on-balance the evidence so far points to TSLA globally being in the leading position, and either maintaining or increasing that lead, with possible exceptions relating to VAG (where it depends what one counts). Therefore overall I tend to disagree with you (and BD), though somewhat rather than absolutely.

I am very much alert to the possibility that the limited evidence may not be showing the full picture, and that important missing information may come to light that shows me to be wrong. That is why I keep looking for warning signs that might cause me to deweight TSLA in my portfolio. So far I have not seen that, though I am wondering (as always) if I am missing something, in particular wrt to VAG. That is not helped by VAG being very coy with their global BEV data, most especially wrt profitability.

In this particular instance, when one examines the underlying (imho = "wannabe silicon electrode company seeks to attract a funding round on basis of 5-year hopium") I don't see anything more than the normal one of many parallel experiments doing exactly what they are supposed to do. Whether that experiment will outperform vs the pack, or vs TSLA, is unknowable. But even they were to perform then I can also see that TSLA has the balance sheet to simply buy them, and (by-the-way) has not seen fit to do so thus far. I am tending to think the same regarding the other data points so far (employees, lizards, whatever) but I keep looking as I could well be wrong.

I don't think there is black and white in this, just a hurricane-force grey fog, that we are all trying to navigate in with very poor charts and lots of pointy rocks. The more eyes looking out, and the more minds analysing, the better as far as I am concerned.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

I think you are missing my general point.

Yes, the article is just one of, probably many thousands, across the world about current investments in battery technology. It may be hailing a breakthrough or not. It's the volume of battery initiatives which are important. Investments in China alone are using amazing amounts of cash, technology and brainpower.

Investors are casting their nets widely in the belief that there are major breakthroughs in battery manufacture soon to come. And other BEV manufacturers will be willing customers for new technology.

Whilst a current leading position in batteries is good, I'm not sure that Tesla have made much profit manufacturing cars over the past five years. They are up against massively financed competition and to sell volume at a premium they must offer more than just heavy batteries in their cars.

Quality is important when you are selling cars at Tesla price points. The ID.4 is launching in their main markets with, reputedly a higher range than most Model 3s and at a slightly lower prices. If VW can do this now with their batteries and their ability to produce high quality cars, the Tesla moat may be shrinking?

regards

Howard

Let us assume that someone either a lone inventor or a big corporation works out how to safely store a lot of electricity at low cost and low weight.

What then happens to the invention?

He/she/they likely patent it or perhaps more likely keep it secret and try and sell it to the highest bidder.

This is exactly the nightmare situation that the VW CEO imagined. VW might like the rights, but Tesla sell a few shares and raise billions and win the bidding contest.

VW then have to reverse engineer the energy storage system or if its patented they can't use it for 20 years.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Are you sure that Tesla is finding it easy to to "attract the best young engineers who can be retained with performance related options".

There are some signs that they are not finding this easy in Germany. The pay and conditions they are offering are said to be unattractive compared with the major car manufacturers. And their recruitment rate is fairly slow. See sources below:

Tesla sales volumes in Germany are so small that this may also put off the best qualified engineers. Who would want to work for a company whose BEV market share has dropped and is now less than major competitors? The Model Y doesn't look like a European winner and the Model 2 is planned to be developed in China.

It's likely that shop floor staff will be recruited to do the repetitive assembly work, but I'm not sure you are right about attracting top engineers?

regards

Howard

Tesla Is Having A Hard Time Recruiting Workers For Giga Berlin https://insideevs.com/news/459015/tesla ... ga-berlin/

These Are The Signs That Show Why Giga Berlin Should Be Worried https://insideevs.com/news/466847/signs ... n-worried/

I have no idea how accurate these articles are. However, many of the young engineers and scientists I meet want to work for Tesla or SpaceX.
I do not meet any who want to work for VW or GM etc.

Is my sample flawed or are the articles rubbish?

Regards,

[dealtn]

Are you sure that Tesla is finding it easy to to "attract the best young engineers who can be retained with performance related options".

There are some signs that they are not finding this easy in Germany. The pay and conditions they are offering are said to be unattractive compared with the major car manufacturers. And their recruitment rate is fairly slow. See sources below:

Tesla sales volumes in Germany are so small that this may also put off the best qualified engineers. Who would want to work for a company whose BEV market share has dropped and is now less than major competitors? The Model Y doesn't look like a European winner and the Model 2 is planned to be developed in China.

It's likely that shop floor staff will be recruited to do the repetitive assembly work, but I'm not sure you are right about attracting top engineers?

regards

Howard

Tesla Is Having A Hard Time Recruiting Workers For Giga Berlin https://insideevs.com/news/459015/tesla ... ga-berlin/

These Are The Signs That Show Why Giga Berlin Should Be Worried https://insideevs.com/news/466847/signs ... n-worried/

I have no idea how accurate these articles are. However, many of the young engineers and scientists I meet want to work for Tesla or SpaceX.
I do not meet any who want to work for VW or GM etc.

Is my sample flawed or are the articles rubbish?

Regards,

How many have you met in Germany (or China)?

Hard to critique your sample, with no knowledge of it to be honest.

[dspp]

Are you sure that Tesla is finding it easy to to "attract the best young engineers who can be retained with performance related options".

There are some signs that they are not finding this easy in Germany. The pay and conditions they are offering are said to be unattractive compared with the major car manufacturers. And their recruitment rate is fairly slow. See sources below:

Tesla sales volumes in Germany are so small that this may also put off the best qualified engineers. Who would want to work for a company whose BEV market share has dropped and is now less than major competitors? The Model Y doesn't look like a European winner and the Model 2 is planned to be developed in China.

It's likely that shop floor staff will be recruited to do the repetitive assembly work, but I'm not sure you are right about attracting top engineers?

regards

Howard

Tesla Is Having A Hard Time Recruiting Workers For Giga Berlin https://insideevs.com/news/459015/tesla ... ga-berlin/

These Are The Signs That Show Why Giga Berlin Should Be Worried https://insideevs.com/news/466847/signs ... n-worried/

I have no idea how accurate these articles are. However, many of the young engineers and scientists I meet want to work for Tesla or SpaceX.
I do not meet any who want to work for VW or GM etc.

Is my sample flawed or are the articles rubbish?

Regards,

How many have you met in Germany (or China)?

Hard to critique your sample, with no knowledge of it to be honest.

The last time I was at an electrical engineering trade show in Berlin, about 18-months ago, the Tesla people were basically mobbed by enthusiastic young engineers clutching their CVs.

I see and hear similar things around the world when talking to young engineers, or many older ones for that matter.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
How many have you met in Germany (or China)?

Hard to critique your sample, with no knowledge of it to be honest.

One of the charity jobs I do is for a biennial International School of Cosmic Ray Astrophysics where I meet young scientists (Graduate and Post doctoral level) from around the world.

There is a huge buzz about Tesla, SpaceX and Elon Musk, like nothing I have ever seen before from all the nations represented which is from all the latitudes that people live. There is an excitement about the future, about improving the world, about re-usable rockets and the advancements brought about by Musk's enterprises that folk tell me has not been seen since the Apollo era. Thoughts of experiments and observations one could do on the moon and in deeper space and all the potential of block chain and 5g.

I was talking with Chinese students about interplanetary travel and about how China is reaching its place as one of the great nations of science and with many European and American students about what they see as the most beneficial and worst things that could happen. AI often came up on both sides, another area that is strongly connected to SpaceX, Tesla and Musk all of which have cult status among the young folk.

This kind of enthusiasm extends across the generations from folk the young to those who have a lot of experience and can now see much lower barriers to orbital experiments etc with many programmes now dependent on SpaceX launch vehicles.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Porsche extends the Taycan model range

With the new Taycan, Porsche is launching the fourth variant of its first all-electric sports saloon. The new model lines up alongside the Taycan Turbo S, Taycan Turbo and Taycan 4S. It features rear-wheel drive and is available with two sizes of battery.

...A single-deck Performance Battery with a gross capacity of 79.2 kWh is fitted as standard. The two-deck Performance Battery Plus is available as an option. Its gross capacity is 93.4 kWh. Range, in accordance with WLTP, is up to 431 or up to 484 kilometres respectively.

- https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2021/pr ... 23428.html

The base version will start from $79,990 (MSRP), which effectively is $73,840 after delivery charges and deducting federal tax credit.

- https://insideevs.com/news/467220/porsc ... n-variant/

VW Goes Head-to-Head With Tesla in China With New Electric SUV

Volkswagen AG has set the starting price of its first locally built all-electric SUV with its Chinese partner FAW Group Co. at 199,900 yuan ($30,800) after subsidies, marking a play for the mass market as a growing number of automakers jostle for share in China.

The ID.4 Crozz is built on VW’s MEB electric vehicle manufacturing platform, which is also used in some models of Audi and Skoda. The car is cheaper than Tesla Inc.’s recently launched Model Y crossover, which starts at 339,900 yuan and isn’t eligible for subsidies.

The vehicle can run as far as 400 kilometers (249 miles) on a single charge. VW is also selling a version with a range of 550 kilometers, starting at 219,900 yuan.

- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... or%20share.

[dealtn]

dealtn
How many have you met in Germany (or China)?

Hard to critique your sample, with no knowledge of it to be honest.

One of the charity jobs I do is for a biennial International School of Cosmic Ray Astrophysics where I meet young scientists (Graduate and Post doctoral level) from around the world.

There is a huge buzz about Tesla, SpaceX and Elon Musk, like nothing I have ever seen before from all the nations represented which is from all the latitudes that people live. There is an excitement about the future, about improving the world, about re-usable rockets and the advancements brought about by Musk's enterprises that folk tell me has not been seen since the Apollo era. Thoughts of experiments and observations one could do on the moon and in deeper space and all the potential of block chain and 5g.

I was talking with Chinese students about interplanetary travel and about how China is reaching its place as one of the great nations of science and with many European and American students about what they see as the most beneficial and worst things that could happen. AI often came up on both sides, another area that is strongly connected to SpaceX, Tesla and Musk all of which have cult status among the young folk.

This kind of enthusiasm extends across the generations from folk the young to those who have a lot of experience and can now see much lower barriers to orbital experiments etc with many programmes now dependent on SpaceX launch vehicles.

Regards,

Ok so you asked for a flaw in your sample.

You have just described an event "Cosmic Ray Astrophysics". You are surprised that people there were interested in working for SpaceX and not VAG.

That's about as blatant an example of confirmation bias as you will ever get to see.

I guess if you went to a country show you might get to meet people interested in being farmers.

[dspp]

The view from the WSJ on VAG,
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-volksw ... _lead_pos5 ($$$$)

"How Volkswagen’s $50 Billion Plan to Beat Tesla Short-Circuited
Faulty software set back a bid by the world’s largest car maker for electric-vehicle dominance

How Volkswagen’s $50 Billion Plan to Beat Tesla Short-Circuited
"..the fancy technology features VW had promised [for the ID.3] were either absent or broken. The company’s programmers hadn’t yet figured out how to update the car’s software remotely. Its futuristic head-up display that was supposed to flash speed, directions and other data onto the windshield didn’t function. Early owners began reporting hundreds of other software bugs."
"Ever since Tesla launched its first car in 2008 “there was this feeling that the really serious players are going to come,” said Peter Rawlinson, CEO of electric car startup Lucid Technologies and the former chief engineer of Tesla’s Model S. Now, he says, “the Germans have finally come, and they’re not as good as Tesla.”
"In the early years of the ID.3 effort, the task to code software for the car was scattered across the organization...The first major project was VW.os, an operating system for ICAS1, the car’s central computer that could be updated remotely."
"In April, he [Mr. Diess] brought back Prof. Malik for a three-day workshop with about 40 of his top executives. Prof. Malik said Mr. Diess posed a simple question for the group: What do we have to do to catch up with Tesla by 2024?"
"At the end of the workshop, the management team had the outlines of a reboot. It would produce a new fully electric and largely self-driving car by 2025, shift more resources from the company’s old business to EVs and digitization, expand battery manufacturing, and explore new revenue streams and payment systems."
"VW.os 2.0—is targeted for 2024 and will include advanced self-driving car features. VW’s goal is to eventually build at least 60% of automotive software in-house."
"Another component of the reboot was the Artemis project, a new in-house design team that would take the software developed by Mr. Hilgenberg’s group and integrate it in a new electric, self-driving, and internet-connected vehicle within three years.""

etc,

- dspp

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
Ok so you asked for a flaw in your sample.

You have just described an event "Cosmic Ray Astrophysics". You are surprised that people there were interested in working for SpaceX and not VAG.

That's about as blatant an example of confirmation bias as you will ever get to see.

I guess if you went to a country show you might get to meet people interested in being farmers.

Ha Ha.

I also have many contacts in the farming community and in many cases the young people, children of farmers, want to do anything but farming. They don't like the pay, the hard work, the regulations, that it is a subsidy business, that Defra come and make their lives near impossible with bovine tb regulations, that sheep wool is now near worthless, that there is a whole industry bringing in foreign labour etc etc.

With regard to the interest in SpaceX and not VAG by the graduate and post doc level students, the majority of the students I see hope to have a research career, not an industrial one and at one time would have shyed away from anything technical/industrial at all, wanting to stay in pure research. Now though there is an interest in technolgy and making the world better than they found it. VAG did themselves no favours over diesel-gate. The people begin to see that they are the first generation who can potentially be in a real space age with all the potential and opportunity that this brings. Musk and SpaceX have changed how things are for this generation in a way that was never reached during Apollo.

The people I am dealing with are at the top of their nations physical science ladder and many will go on to hold university positions and to do space
research. When I meet other young folk who have not reached these levels there is also an interest and awe in the business of Musk that I have never seen before with any other business.

I have no doubt that you can find young people who hate Musk, Tesla, SpaceX and all his other business and ones who have zero interest in any of his business. That will always be the case, it is the interest from folk who have the skill and knowledge to contribute which is just a small subset of the population which is important and from what I am seeing the bright and clever students want to be associated with Musk if possible, both for the grandeur of his vision and it has also not escaped their notice that he and many of his senior folk have prospered mighty from these new business.

The young folk can also see that many of the legacy business are in trouble giving a double negative of not leading the state of the art and not likely to prosper either with the near certainty that many folk who work in for example ICE engines and ICE transmissions will lose their jobs.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

The view from the WSJ on VAG,
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-volksw ... _lead_pos5 ($$$$)

"How Volkswagen’s $50 Billion Plan to Beat Tesla Short-Circuited
Faulty software set back a bid by the world’s largest car maker for electric-vehicle dominance

How Volkswagen’s $50 Billion Plan to Beat Tesla Short-Circuited
"..the fancy technology features VW had promised [for the ID.3] were either absent or broken. The company’s programmers hadn’t yet figured out how to update the car’s software remotely. Its futuristic head-up display that was supposed to flash speed, directions and other data onto the windshield didn’t function. Early owners began reporting hundreds of other software bugs."
"Ever since Tesla launched its first car in 2008 “there was this feeling that the really serious players are going to come,” said Peter Rawlinson, CEO of electric car startup Lucid Technologies and the former chief engineer of Tesla’s Model S. Now, he says, “the Germans have finally come, and they’re not as good as Tesla.”
"In the early years of the ID.3 effort, the task to code software for the car was scattered across the organization...The first major project was VW.os, an operating system for ICAS1, the car’s central computer that could be updated remotely."
"In April, he [Mr. Diess] brought back Prof. Malik for a three-day workshop with about 40 of his top executives. Prof. Malik said Mr. Diess posed a simple question for the group: What do we have to do to catch up with Tesla by 2024?"
"At the end of the workshop, the management team had the outlines of a reboot. It would produce a new fully electric and largely self-driving car by 2025, shift more resources from the company’s old business to EVs and digitization, expand battery manufacturing, and explore new revenue streams and payment systems."
"VW.os 2.0—is targeted for 2024 and will include advanced self-driving car features. VW’s goal is to eventually build at least 60% of automotive software in-house."
"Another component of the reboot was the Artemis project, a new in-house design team that would take the software developed by Mr. Hilgenberg’s group and integrate it in a new electric, self-driving, and internet-connected vehicle within three years.""

etc,

- dspp

I had thought that that was riddled with factual errors, but comparing your quotes to the stub above the paywall it might be the result of a series of partial quotes not separated with ellipses to indicate missing text?

Either way it's either bobbins or reduced to bobbins, with the compression of any timeline which might have existed within the article being the most obvious but not only problem.

[dealtn]

dealtn
Ok so you asked for a flaw in your sample.

You have just described an event "Cosmic Ray Astrophysics". You are surprised that people there were interested in working for SpaceX and not VAG.

That's about as blatant an example of confirmation bias as you will ever get to see.

I guess if you went to a country show you might get to meet people interested in being farmers.

Ha Ha.

Not sure I understand the joke.

You asked a simple question, was there a flaw? I pointed out confirmation bias.

You can either accept it as a flaw, or dismiss it as irrelevant, but there doesn't appear to be much point in you asking questions, and inviting an answer if its the latter.

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
Not sure I understand the joke.

You asked a simple question, was there a flaw? I pointed out confirmation bias.

You can either accept it as a flaw, or dismiss it as irrelevant, but there doesn't appear to be much point in you asking questions, and inviting an answer if its the latter.

The joke was that you suggested:

I guess if you went to a country show you might get to meet people interested in being farmers.

The moral of famers I meet is very low, everyone wants out, anything but farming. This is in stark contrast to what I see in the young folk who are skilled in the hard sciences and whose morale and belief in the future is higher than I have ever seen before.

I am reporting on what I am seeing in the young people who have the necessary skills to contribute to creating a sustainable energy economy and in what I see as the beginning of the real space age.

If I was to go and talk to folk who want to be dentists, or accountants, or... they are in general not interested in renewable energy, space etc as one would expect, but they are worried about whether AI will take their jobs.

As far as seems reasonable to me the interest and motivation of folk who are potentially able to contribute to the future tells one more about where things are likely to go than taking surveys of folk who are not able to potentially contribute to the future. If for example I wanted to know about the direction of the music industry I would ask folk in that industry and seek out the young folk and find out what their thoughts are. I would not be interested in what for example physicists or engineers thought.

Regards,

[dealtn]

dealtn
Not sure I understand the joke.

You asked a simple question, was there a flaw? I pointed out confirmation bias.

You can either accept it as a flaw, or dismiss it as irrelevant, but there doesn't appear to be much point in you asking questions, and inviting an answer if its the latter.

The joke was that you suggested:

I guess if you went to a country show you might get to meet people interested in being farmers.

Apologies.

[Howard]

This review of Tesla's situation is interesting to compare with the Bloomberg article on VW.

"The market has clearly priced in massive growth; according to Elon Musk, Tesla plans to sell 20 million vehicles in 2030."

"To achieve its growth objectives, Tesla will have to spend upward of $100 billion on new production capacity."

"Tenuously profitable at best, Tesla cannot hope to fund its massive capex needs with operating cash flow; it will have to turn to capital markets."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/439979 ... ent=link-0

regards

Howard

[Howard]

I've just read Terry Smith's Annual Letter. He made a comment at the end which, to me, is very relevant to this thread.

"What are the similarities between a forecaster and a one-eyed javelin thrower?

Answer: Neither is likely to be very accurate but they are typically good at keeping the attention of the audience."

regards

Howard

PS It's a good read:

https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/docs/defaul ... f?sfvrsn=4

[odysseus2000]

Munroe episode 3, of tear down of model 3, including Sandy being vexed with the frump:

https://youtu.be/c7iZUZHNHl4

Regards,

[Howard]

Episode 2 (approx 11 minutes) of the Munroe tear down of a model 3. For anyone who has not tried to manufacture stuff this may be interesting in terms of the way small components elimination reduce cost:

https://youtu.be/61s1XNVSfiI

Regards,

I'm probably covering ground which BobbyD summed up more quickly with his comment.

And you know I'm not an engineer. But wouldn't a professional engineer cry when he saw the sloppiness of the build that Sandy Munroe exposes at 4mins 50secs onwards?

The areas of the undertray are loose and flappy as he pulls them down to explain that Tesla now leave off a couple of plastic fasteners to save 20 cents. He seems to completely miss the wastage of designing the car with the two holes for the stud fasteners in the metal frame (casting?) which they are fixed to and then not using them.

So we have a couple of bits of the undertray which are so loose he can pull them down easily and this is seen as a virtue. It wouldn't surprise me if wind resistance at 70 mph gets them flapping on a motorway causing vibrations, noise and possibly water ingress.

Perhaps this is the type of thinking which lets cars go out with rear lights which let in water in a UK winter?

Would a German car manufacturer be happy with this kind of sloppy design? I doubt it.

regards

Howard