Musk endeavours

[Howard]

If Germany is the market to watch for Tesla, then this is fantastic good news:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-sa ... 20987.html

Regards,

I suppose we shouldn't be surprised that you didn't quote the actual sales figures.

Yes Tesla sold around 1,800 cars in February in Germany. A massive surge from selling 422 cars in January.

They sold a huge number in the UK in February too. Around 159 cars.

The pandemic is tough for car sales with distributors and sales centres closed.

Germany is looking like a very difficult market for Tesla. We can expect sales in March will be higher, but is this enough to support a large manufacturing facility?

And February sales in other European markets are pretty small. (Provisional figures suggest just over 300 in Norway and less than 40 in the Netherlands, France looks a little better with sales over 1,000). This is despite shipping cars to Europe from both the US and China.

regards

Howard

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

[dspp]

UBS Tears Down VW ID.3: 'Most Credible EV Effort' By Legacy Carmakers
UBS analysts believe Volkswagen can have a 15 percent profit margin with the ID.3, which makes it a vehicle as profitable as the Golf. The fact that it has been created as an EV from the ground up probably helped.
https://insideevs.com/news/492026/ubs-v ... ev-effort/

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

Howard
I suppose we shouldn't be surprised that you didn't quote the actual sales figures.

Yes Tesla sold around 1,800 cars in February in Germany. A massive surge from selling 422 cars in January.

Its the direction of travel that is important, more than absolute numbers and this says German consumers like Tesla.

Meanwhile why can't VW sell the ID3 and have to sell it to themselves?

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

UBS Tears Down VW ID.3: 'Most Credible EV Effort' By Legacy Carmakers
UBS analysts believe Volkswagen can have a 15 percent profit margin with the ID.3, which makes it a vehicle as profitable as the Golf. The fact that it has been created as an EV from the ground up probably helped.
https://insideevs.com/news/492026/ubs-v ... ev-effort/

regards, dspp

Yes, but can they sell it to customers, not just between their own business?

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Ron Baron on Tesla (6mins 16 seconds):

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/04/billion ... hares.html

Regards,

[Howard]

Howard
I suppose we shouldn't be surprised that you didn't quote the actual sales figures.

Yes Tesla sold around 1,800 cars in February in Germany. A massive surge from selling 422 cars in January.

Its the direction of travel that is important, more than absolute numbers and this says German consumers like Tesla.

Meanwhile why can't VW sell the ID3 and have to sell it to themselves?

Regards,

You are right. Tesla sold just over 3,000 cars in Germany in December. So their "direction of travel" is downwards?

Other time spans are available.

Tesla's market share of the German BEV market is very small, so a few hundred cars here or there, whilst seeming a large increase in percentage terms, doesn't make much difference to the case that absolute demand for their cars is currently tiny compared with the capacity of a car plant.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Tesla's market share of the German BEV market is very small, so a few hundred cars here or there, whilst seeming a large increase in percentage terms, doesn't make much difference to the case that absolute demand for their cars is currently tiny compared with the capacity of a car plant.

regards

Howard

One has to factor in supply and demand, unless of course the company is selling to itself when the demand bit becomes very uncertain.

Regards,

[Howard]

Tesla's market share of the German BEV market is very small, so a few hundred cars here or there, whilst seeming a large increase in percentage terms, doesn't make much difference to the case that absolute demand for their cars is currently tiny compared with the capacity of a car plant.

regards

Howard

One has to factor in supply and demand, unless of course the company is selling to itself when the demand bit becomes very uncertain.

Regards,

Sales of plug-in cars surged in Germany to over 40,000 in February.

According to Clean Technica, Tesla sales were 1,918. Their market share of the overall plug in segment dropped to 4.8%.

This suggests that not many Germans choosing electric vehicles are buying Teslas?

Their share of the pure BEV segment dropped as well. Total BEVs sold were 18,278 giving Tesla just over 10% share of this segment.

VW are estimated to have achieved around 25% of BEV sales in Germany in February according to the article linked below.

By the way Ody, can you substantiate your claim that VW is "selling to itself" or are you just making it up. That's a serious allegation which should be backed up with hard evidence.

And, by the way, suggesting that they have sold to their dealers, distributors and leasing companies who then offer cars for sale isn't evidence. Yes, there are companies offering leased cars from stock but they are also offering Tesla cars from stock as well. It's a common practice - look at the leasing sites.

regards

Howard

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/04/ge ... r-on-year/

[odysseus2000]

Howard
By the way Ody, can you substantiate your claim that VW is "selling to itself" or are you just making it up. That's a serious allegation which should be backed up with hard evidence.

And, by the way, suggesting that they have sold to their dealers, distributors and leasing companies who then offer cars for sale isn't evidence. Yes, there are companies offering leased cars from stock but they are also offering Tesla cars from stock as well. It's a common practice - look at the leasing sites.

I have given several links on this board to questionable VW sales practice.

Regards,

[Howard]

Howard
By the way Ody, can you substantiate your claim that VW is "selling to itself" or are you just making it up. That's a serious allegation which should be backed up with hard evidence.

And, by the way, suggesting that they have sold to their dealers, distributors and leasing companies who then offer cars for sale isn't evidence. Yes, there are companies offering leased cars from stock but they are also offering Tesla cars from stock as well. It's a common practice - look at the leasing sites.

I have given several links on this board to questionable VW sales practice.

Regards,

They could be classed as "tittle tattle". Can you give a link to an up to date source which backs up your serious allegation.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

VW and their friends in the media argue that selling cars to themselves is just normal business practice, whereas Greenpeace allege that these sales were made to avoid emission fines:

https://insideevs.com/news/488158/green ... v-numbers/

For now VW seem to have got away with it, but that was how it seemed for several years with Diesel Gate, then came and then the regulators who clobbered VW with some very heavy fines.

The true picture of whether the ID3 is selling to punters who have a choice will emerge this year.

In all of these things one should compare sales rates to reasonbable early epoch.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

I have been doing a lot of driving over the past few weeks, at least 1000 miles a week, mostly M3, M25 and M11 and around Heathrow. I tend to see a few Teslas each day but I have yet to see and ID3.

Unfortunately of the several Teslas I saw today, one was parked up on the hard shoulder of the M25, whether a breakdown or flat battery, In could tell.

I am seriously looking to lease either a Tesla or ID3 in the next few weeks though.

John

[Howard]

I have been doing a lot of driving over the past few weeks, at least 1000 miles a week, mostly M3, M25 and M11 and around Heathrow. I tend to see a few Teslas each day but I have yet to see and ID3.

Unfortunately of the several Teslas I saw today, one was parked up on the hard shoulder of the M25, whether a breakdown or flat battery, In could tell.

I am seriously looking to lease either a Tesla or ID3 in the next few weeks though.

John

Have you looked at a Kia eNiro or Soul? Highly rated by "Which" and their subscribers. Much higher ratings than a Tesla and somewhat higher than a VW ID.3. And with a substantially longer real-world range than both. It might be worth subscribing to "Which" temporarily to see their reviews in detail. Over the years I think their views on the cars I have owned/driven have been realistic.

We are replacing our Golf with a Kia later this month. We'll be sorry to see the Golf go but are looking forward to another electric car. And there are some really competitive leasing deals out there at the moment. Will report back on experience with the Kia soon. In the meantime this video review looks sensible to me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdzeFtVOTc8

regards

Howard

PS Or perhaps I should suggest you get a Tesla and then we'd have some views on this forum from someone who actually drove a BEV and had some practical experience. . Maybe if lockdown finishes soon you might arrange a test drive at Tesla Winchester and let us know your opinion. My neighbours did this but chose an ID.3. One reason was that it was much roomier and more practical than a Model 3.

[Howard]

VW and their friends in the media argue that selling cars to themselves is just normal business practice, whereas Greenpeace allege that these sales were made to avoid emission fines:

https://insideevs.com/news/488158/green ... v-numbers/

For now VW seem to have got away with it, but that was how it seemed for several years with Diesel Gate, then came and then the regulators who clobbered VW with some very heavy fines.

The true picture of whether the ID3 is selling to punters who have a choice will emerge this year.

In all of these things one should compare sales rates to reasonbable early epoch.

Regards,

Your choice of source is puzzling because insideevs.com pretty well contradicts the claim you are making.

For example:

"The German magazine Der Spiegel talked with Volkswagen, and the company refuted the NGOs' allegations."

"That led not only the dealers to buy them for their test driving fleets but also Volkswagen to renew its corporate fleets with electrified and electric vehicles. In other words, its executives are now also driving these cars."

It’s amusing that you are criticising VW executives for driving Volkswagens.

So will you criticise Tesla executives for driving Teslas?

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Howard,

If you look at the start of my post it describes VW and their friends in the media.

VW have been caught out claiming sales figures, that were not specified as weighted towards VW employees, but instead were used to give an impression that the id3 is popular with paying independent punters rather than the unpopular bug filled lemon that is the reality.

Meanwhile other mystery shopping expeditions have shown that VW sales folk are actively discouraging punters from buying the VW BEV & are instead trying to flog ICE & PHEV.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Lift off is a new book about spaceX. Here the author discusses it with Rob Maurer (29 mins):

https://youtu.be/r_qcIJcpNbQ

I found it super interesting.

Regards,

[dspp]

Down to $597. It would be quite nice if it went lower and held it during a lot of April 2021.



regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

Down to $597. It would be quite nice if it went lower and held it during a lot of April 2021.



regards, dspp

It would have been even nicer if I had sold it at $870 on the 27th January, and could now scale back in.

Didn't do it, big mug punter mistake.

Write 10,000,000 lines:

Do not fall in love with any stock!!!!

Do I know where it goes from here?

No. Could rally very strongly from this level if one believes valuation models suggesting a $2k+ price, even without robotaxi (28 mins Maurer valuation: https://youtu.be/i9eWmAkTTTw) sometime in the next 10 years, or if there is some robo-taxi or similar developmentor, or we might be in a market rotation like 2000 suggesting it could go a lot lower and take a long time (10 year-ish) to recover as did e.g. Amazon after 2000.

Regards,

[tjh290633]

Those interested in Solar Power might like to read this article https://www.chemistryworld.com/features ... 77.article which indicates major problems ahead, when solar panels wear out in 25-30 years time.

But as PV leaders are well aware, the pathway to sustainable energy generation is not yet complete. A typical PV module is expected to have a 25–30 year working life. Today’s rapid growth in installed PV will be mirrored, a couple of decades down the track, by an equally sharp rise in PV panels ready to be retired. Heath and his Task 12 colleagues have estimated that the world will face a cumulative mass of 8 million tonnes of end-of-life PV modules by 2030, and 80 million tonnes by 2050, by which time it could represent more than 10% of global e-waste.

‘A lot of people have the misconception that putting solar panels on their roof solves the problem of sustainable energy generation,’ says Meng Tao, a solar researcher at Arizona State University in the US. ‘But there are two elements to it. One part is having a sustainable energy source – but the other part is having a sustainable technology to utilise that resource.’ Today, most used PV ends up in landfill, hardly a sustainable solution. But work to circularise the PV economy is well underway.

It might be something to bear in mind.

TJH

[odysseus2000]

Tesla closing its forums and setting up social platforms:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/5/22315 ... ms-charity

Regards,